dynare/matlab/extended_path.m

67 lines
2.5 KiB
Matlab

function time_series = extended_path(initial_conditions,sample_size)
% Stochastic simulation of a non linear DSGE model using the Extended Path method (Fair and Taylor 1983). A time
% series of size T is obtained by solving T perfect foresight models.
%
% INPUTS
% o initial_conditions [double] m*nlags array, where m is the number of endogenous variables in the model and
% nlags is the maximum number of lags.
% o sample_size [integer] scalar, size of the sample to be simulated.
%
% OUTPUTS
% o time_series [double] m*sample_size array, the simulations.
%
% ALGORITHM
%
% SPECIAL REQUIREMENTS
% Copyright (C) 2009 Dynare Team
%
% This file is part of Dynare.
%
% Dynare is free software: you can redistribute it and/or modify
% it under the terms of the GNU General Public License as published by
% the Free Software Foundation, either version 3 of the License, or
% (at your option) any later version.
%
% Dynare is distributed in the hope that it will be useful,
% but WITHOUT ANY WARRANTY; without even the implied warranty of
% MERCHANTABILITY or FITNESS FOR A PARTICULAR PURPOSE. See the
% GNU General Public License for more details.
%
% You should have received a copy of the GNU General Public License
% along with Dynare. If not, see <http://www.gnu.org/licenses/>.
global M_ oo_ options_
% Set default initial conditions.
if isempty(initial_conditions)
initial_conditions = repmat(oo_.steady_state,1,M_.maximum_lag);
end
% Copy sample_size to periods.
options_.periods = sample_size;
% Initialize the exogenous variables.
make_ex_;
% Initialize the endogenous variables.
make_y_;
% Initialize the output array.
time_series = NaN(M_.endo_nbr,sample_size+1);
% Set the covariance matrix of the structural innovations.
variances = diag(M_.Sigma_e);
positive_var_indx = find(variances>0);
covariance_matrix = M_.Sigma_e(positive_var_indx,positive_var_indx);
number_of_structural_innovations = length(covariance_matrix);
covariance_matrix_upper_cholesky = chol(covariance_matrix);
tdx = M_.maximum_lag+1;
for t=1:sample_size
oo_.exo_simul(tdx,positive_var_indx) = exp(randn(1,number_of_structural_innovations)*covariance_matrix_upper_cholesky-.5*variances(positive_var_indx)');
perfect_foresight_simulation;
time_series(:,t+1) = oo_.endo_simul(:,tdx);
oo_.endo_simul(:,1:end-1) = oo_.endo_simul(:,2:end);
oo_.endo_simul(:,end) = oo_.steady_state;
end