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dynare/matlab/dynare_sensitivity.m

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function x0=dynare_sensitivity(options_gsa)
% Frontend to the Sensitivity Analysis Toolbox for DYNARE
%
% Reference:
% M. Ratto, Global Sensitivity Analysis for Macroeconomic models, MIMEO, 2006.
% Copyright (C) 2008-2011 Dynare Team
%
% This file is part of Dynare.
%
% Dynare is free software: you can redistribute it and/or modify
% it under the terms of the GNU General Public License as published by
% the Free Software Foundation, either version 3 of the License, or
% (at your option) any later version.
%
% Dynare is distributed in the hope that it will be useful,
% but WITHOUT ANY WARRANTY; without even the implied warranty of
% MERCHANTABILITY or FITNESS FOR A PARTICULAR PURPOSE. See the
% GNU General Public License for more details.
%
% You should have received a copy of the GNU General Public License
% along with Dynare. If not, see <http://www.gnu.org/licenses/>.
global M_ options_ oo_ bayestopt_ estim_params_
fname_ = M_.fname;
if ~isfield(M_,'dname'),
M_.dname = M_.fname;
end
lgy_ = M_.endo_names;
x0=[];
options_gsa = set_default_option(options_gsa,'datafile',[]);
if isfield(options_gsa,'nograph'),
options_.nograph=options_gsa.nograph;
end
if isfield(options_gsa,'mode_file'),
options_.mode_file=options_gsa.mode_file;
end
options_.order = 1;
if ~isempty(options_gsa.datafile) || isempty(bayestopt_),
options_.datafile = options_gsa.datafile;
if isfield(options_gsa,'first_obs'),
options_.first_obs=options_gsa.first_obs;
end
if isfield(options_gsa,'nobs'),
options_.nobs=options_gsa.nobs;
end
if isfield(options_gsa,'presample'),
options_.presample=options_gsa.presample;
end
if isfield(options_gsa,'prefilter'),
options_.prefilter=options_gsa.prefilter;
end
if isfield(options_gsa,'loglinear'),
options_.loglinear=options_gsa.loglinear;
end
options_.mode_compute = 0;
options_.filtered_vars = 1;
options_.plot_priors = 0;
% [data,rawdata,xparam1,data_info]=dynare_estimation_init([],fname_,1);
[dataset_,xparam1, M_, options_, oo_, estim_params_,bayestopt_]=dynare_estimation_init(M_.endo_names,fname_,1, M_, options_, oo_, estim_params_, bayestopt_);
% computes a first linear solution to set up various variables
else
if isempty(options_.qz_criterium)
options_.qz_criterium = 1+1e-6;
end
end
[make,my,day,punk,M_,options_,oo_] = dynare_resolve(M_,options_,oo_);
options_gsa = set_default_option(options_gsa,'identification',0);
if options_gsa.identification,
options_gsa.redform=0;
options_gsa = set_default_option(options_gsa,'morris',1);
options_gsa = set_default_option(options_gsa,'trans_ident',0);
options_gsa = set_default_option(options_gsa,'load_ident_files',0);
options_gsa = set_default_option(options_gsa,'ar',1);
options_gsa = set_default_option(options_gsa,'useautocorr',0);
options_.ar = options_gsa.ar;
if options_gsa.morris==2,
if isfield(options_,'options_ident'),
options_.options_ident.load_ident_files = options_gsa.load_ident_files;
options_.options_ident.useautocorr = options_gsa.useautocorr;
options_.options_ident.ar = options_gsa.ar;
options_ident=options_.options_ident;
else
options_ident=[];
options_ident = set_default_option(options_ident,'load_ident_files',options_gsa.load_ident_files);
options_ident = set_default_option(options_ident,'useautocorr',options_gsa.useautocorr);
options_ident = set_default_option(options_ident,'ar',options_gsa.ar);
options_.options_ident = options_ident;
end
end
end
% map stability
options_gsa = set_default_option(options_gsa,'stab',1);
options_gsa = set_default_option(options_gsa,'redform',0);
options_gsa = set_default_option(options_gsa,'pprior',1);
options_gsa = set_default_option(options_gsa,'prior_range',1);
options_gsa = set_default_option(options_gsa,'ppost',0);
options_gsa = set_default_option(options_gsa,'neighborhood_width',0);
options_gsa = set_default_option(options_gsa,'ilptau',1);
options_gsa = set_default_option(options_gsa,'morris',0);
options_gsa = set_default_option(options_gsa,'glue',0);
options_gsa = set_default_option(options_gsa,'morris_nliv',6);
options_gsa = set_default_option(options_gsa,'morris_ntra',20);
options_gsa = set_default_option(options_gsa,'Nsam',2048);
options_gsa = set_default_option(options_gsa,'load_redform',0);
options_gsa = set_default_option(options_gsa,'load_rmse',0);
options_gsa = set_default_option(options_gsa,'load_stab',0);
options_gsa = set_default_option(options_gsa,'alpha2_stab',0.3);
options_gsa = set_default_option(options_gsa,'ksstat',0.1);
options_gsa = set_default_option(options_gsa,'pvalue_ks',0.001);
options_gsa = set_default_option(options_gsa,'pvalue_corr',0.001);
%options_gsa = set_default_option(options_gsa,'load_mh',0);
if options_gsa.redform,
options_gsa.pprior=1;
options_gsa.ppost=0;
end
if options_gsa.morris==1 || options_gsa.morris==3,
if ~options_gsa.identification,
options_gsa.redform=1;
end
options_gsa.pprior=1;
options_gsa.ppost=0;
%options_gsa.stab=1;
options_gsa.glue=0;
options_gsa.rmse=0;
options_gsa.load_rmse=0;
options_gsa.alpha2_stab=1;
options_gsa.ksstat=1;
if options_gsa.morris==3,
options_gsa = set_default_option(options_gsa,'Nsam',256);
OutputDirectoryName = CheckPath('GSA/IDENTIF');
else
OutputDirectoryName = CheckPath('GSA/SCREEN');
end
else
OutputDirectoryName = CheckPath('GSA');
end
options_.opt_gsa = options_gsa;
if (options_gsa.load_stab || options_gsa.load_rmse || options_gsa.load_redform) ...
&& options_gsa.pprior,
filetoload=[OutputDirectoryName '/' fname_ '_prior.mat'];
if isempty(ls(filetoload)),
disp([filetoload,' not found!'])
disp(['You asked to load a non existent analysis'])
%options_gsa.load_stab=0;
return,
else
if isempty(strmatch('bkpprior',who('-file', filetoload),'exact')),
disp('Warning! Missing prior info for saved sample') % trap for files previous
disp('The saved files are generated with previous version of GSA package') % trap for files previous
else
load(filetoload,'bkpprior'),
if any(bayestopt_.pshape~=bkpprior.pshape) || ...
any(bayestopt_.p1~=bkpprior.p1) || ...
any(bayestopt_.p2~=bkpprior.p2) || ...
any(bayestopt_.p3(~isnan(bayestopt_.p3))~=bkpprior.p3(~isnan(bkpprior.p3))) || ...
any(bayestopt_.p4(~isnan(bayestopt_.p4))~=bkpprior.p4(~isnan(bkpprior.p4))),
disp('WARNING!')
disp('The saved sample has different priors w.r.t. to current ones!!')
disp('')
disp('Press ENTER to continue')
pause;
end
end
end
end
if options_gsa.stab && ~options_gsa.ppost,
x0 = stab_map_(OutputDirectoryName);
end
% reduced form
% redform_map(namendo, namlagendo, namexo, icomp, pprior, ilog, threshold)
options_gsa = set_default_option(options_gsa,'logtrans_redform',0);
options_gsa = set_default_option(options_gsa,'threshold_redform',[]);
options_gsa = set_default_option(options_gsa,'ksstat_redform',0.1);
options_gsa = set_default_option(options_gsa,'alpha2_redform',0.3);
options_gsa = set_default_option(options_gsa,'namendo',[]);
options_gsa = set_default_option(options_gsa,'namlagendo',[]);
options_gsa = set_default_option(options_gsa,'namexo',[]);
options_.opt_gsa = options_gsa;
if options_gsa.identification,
map_ident_(OutputDirectoryName);
end
if options_gsa.redform && ~isempty(options_gsa.namendo) ...
&& ~options_gsa.ppost,
if strmatch(':',options_gsa.namendo,'exact'),
options_gsa.namendo=M_.endo_names;
end
if strmatch(':',options_gsa.namexo,'exact'),
options_gsa.namexo=M_.exo_names;
end
if strmatch(':',options_gsa.namlagendo,'exact'),
options_gsa.namlagendo=M_.endo_names;
end
options_.opt_gsa = options_gsa;
if options_gsa.morris==1,
redform_screen(OutputDirectoryName);
else
% check existence of the SS_ANOVA toolbox
if ~(exist('gsa_sdp','file')==6 || exist('gsa_sdp','file')==2),
disp('Download Mapping routines at:')
disp('http://eemc.jrc.ec.europa.eu/softwareDYNARE-Dowload.htm')
disp(' ' )
error('Mapping routines missing!')
end
redform_map(OutputDirectoryName);
end
end
% RMSE mapping
% function [rmse_MC, ixx] = filt_mc_(vvarvecm, loadSA, pfilt, alpha, alpha2)
options_gsa = set_default_option(options_gsa,'rmse',0);
options_gsa = set_default_option(options_gsa,'lik_only',0);
options_gsa = set_default_option(options_gsa,'var_rmse',options_.varobs);
options_gsa = set_default_option(options_gsa,'pfilt_rmse',0.1);
options_gsa = set_default_option(options_gsa,'istart_rmse',options_.presample+1);
options_gsa = set_default_option(options_gsa,'alpha_rmse',0.002);
options_gsa = set_default_option(options_gsa,'alpha2_rmse',1);
options_.opt_gsa = options_gsa;
if options_gsa.rmse,
if ~options_gsa.ppost
if options_gsa.pprior
a=whos('-file',[OutputDirectoryName,'/',fname_,'_prior'],'logpo2');
else
a=whos('-file',[OutputDirectoryName,'/',fname_,'_mc'],'logpo2');
end
if isempty(a),
% dynare_MC([],OutputDirectoryName,data,rawdata,data_info);
prior_posterior_statistics('gsa',dataset_);
if options_.bayesian_irf
PosteriorIRF('gsa');
end
options_gsa.load_rmse=0;
% else
% if options_gsa.load_rmse==0,
% disp('You already saved a MC filter/smoother analysis ')
% disp('Do you want to overwrite ?')
% pause;
% if options_gsa.pprior
% delete([OutputDirectoryName,'/',fname_,'_prior_*.mat'])
% else
% delete([OutputDirectoryName,'/',fname_,'_mc_*.mat'])
% end
% dynare_MC([],OutputDirectoryName);
% options_gsa.load_rmse=0;
% end
end
end
clear a;
% filt_mc_(OutputDirectoryName,data_info);
filt_mc_(OutputDirectoryName);
end
if options_gsa.glue,
dr_ = oo_.dr;
if options_gsa.ppost
load([OutputDirectoryName,'/',fname_,'_post']);
DirectoryName = CheckPath('metropolis');
else
if options_gsa.pprior
load([OutputDirectoryName,'/',fname_,'_prior']);
else
load([OutputDirectoryName,'/',fname_,'_mc']);
end
end
if ~exist('x'),
disp(['No RMSE analysis is available for current options'])
disp(['No GLUE file prepared'])
return,
end
nruns=size(x,1);
gend = options_.nobs;
rawdata = read_variables(options_.datafile,options_.varobs,[],options_.xls_sheet,options_.xls_range);
rawdata = rawdata(options_.first_obs:options_.first_obs+gend-1,:);
if options_.loglinear == 1
rawdata = log(rawdata);
end
if options_.prefilter == 1
%data = transpose(rawdata-ones(gend,1)*bayestopt_.mean_varobs);
data = transpose(rawdata-ones(gend,1)*mean(rawdata,1));
else
data = transpose(rawdata);
end
Obs.data = data;
Obs.time = [1:gend];
Obs.num = gend;
for j=1:size(options_.varobs,1)
Obs.name{j} = deblank(options_.varobs(j,:));
vj=deblank(options_.varobs(j,:));
jxj = strmatch(vj,lgy_(dr_.order_var,:),'exact');
js = strmatch(vj,lgy_,'exact');
if ~options_gsa.ppost
% y0=zeros(gend+1,nruns);
% nb = size(stock_filter,3);
% y0 = squeeze(stock_filter(:,jxj,:)) + ...
% kron(stock_ys(js,:),ones(size(stock_filter,1),1));
% Out(j).data = y0';
% Out(j).time = [1:size(y0,1)];
Out(j).data = jxj;
Out(j).time = [pwd,'/',OutputDirectoryName];
else
Out(j).data = jxj;
Out(j).time = [pwd,'/',DirectoryName];
end
Out(j).name = vj;
Out(j).ini = 'yes';
Lik(j).name = ['rmse_',vj];
Lik(j).ini = 'yes';
Lik(j).isam = 1;
Lik(j).data = rmse_MC(:,j)';
if ~options_gsa.ppost
% y0 = squeeze(stock_smooth(:,jxj,:)) + ...
% kron(stock_ys(js,:),ones(size(stock_smooth,1),1));
% Out1(j).name = vj;
% Out1(j).ini = 'yes';
% Out1(j).time = [1:size(y0,1)];
% Out1(j).data = y0';
Out1=Out;
else
Out1=Out;
end
ismoo(j)=jxj;
end
jsmoo = size(options_.varobs,1);
for j=1:M_.endo_nbr,
if ~ismember(j,ismoo),
jsmoo=jsmoo+1;
vj=deblank(M_.endo_names(dr_.order_var(j),:));
if ~options_gsa.ppost
% y0 = squeeze(stock_smooth(:,j,:)) + ...
% kron(stock_ys(j,:),ones(size(stock_smooth,1),1));
% Out1(jsmoo).time = [1:size(y0,1)];
% Out1(jsmoo).data = y0';
Out1(jsmoo).data = j;
Out1(jsmoo).time = [pwd,'/',OutputDirectoryName];
else
Out1(jsmoo).data = j;
Out1(jsmoo).time = [pwd,'/',DirectoryName];
end
Out1(jsmoo).name = vj;
Out1(jsmoo).ini = 'yes';
end
end
tit(M_.exo_names_orig_ord,:) = M_.exo_names;
for j=1:M_.exo_nbr,
Exo(j).name = deblank(tit(j,:));
end
if ~options_gsa.ppost
Lik(size(options_.varobs,1)+1).name = 'logpo';
Lik(size(options_.varobs,1)+1).ini = 'yes';
Lik(size(options_.varobs,1)+1).isam = 1;
Lik(size(options_.varobs,1)+1).data = -logpo2;
end
Sam.name = bayestopt_.name;
Sam.dim = [size(x) 0];
Sam.data = [x];
Rem.id = 'Original';
Rem.ind= [1:size(x,1)];
Info.dynare=M_.fname;
Info.order_var=dr_.order_var;
Out=Out1;
if options_gsa.ppost
% Info.dynare=M_.fname;
% Info.order_var=dr_.order_var;
% Out=Out1;
Info.TypeofSample='post';
save([OutputDirectoryName,'/',fname_,'_glue_post.mat'], 'Out', 'Sam', 'Lik', 'Obs', 'Rem','Info', 'Exo')
%save([fname_,'_post_glue_smooth'], 'Out', 'Sam', 'Lik', 'Obs', 'Rem','Info')
else
if options_gsa.pprior
Info.TypeofSample='prior';
save([OutputDirectoryName,'/',fname_,'_glue_prior.mat'], 'Out', 'Sam', 'Lik', 'Obs', 'Rem','Info', 'Exo')
% save([OutputDirectoryName,'/',fname_,'_prior_glue'], 'Out', 'Sam', 'Lik', 'Obs', 'Rem')
% Out=Out1;
% save([OutputDirectoryName,'/',fname_,'_prior_glue_smooth'], 'Out', 'Sam', 'Lik', 'Obs', 'Rem')
else
Info.TypeofSample='mc';
save([OutputDirectoryName,'/',fname_,'_glue_mc.mat'], 'Out', 'Sam', 'Lik', 'Obs', 'Rem','Info', 'Exo')
% save([OutputDirectoryName,'/',fname_,'_mc_glue'], 'Out', 'Sam', 'Lik', 'Obs', 'Rem')
% Out=Out1;
% save([OutputDirectoryName,'/',fname_,'_mc_glue_smooth'], 'Out', 'Sam', 'Lik', 'Obs', 'Rem')
end
end
end
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