707 lines
29 KiB
Matlab
707 lines
29 KiB
Matlab
function x0 = stab_map_(OutputDirectoryName,opt_gsa)
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%
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% function x0 = stab_map_(OutputDirectoryName)
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%
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% Mapping of stability regions in the prior ranges applying
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% Monte Carlo filtering techniques.
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%
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% INPUTS (from opt_gsa structure)
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% Nsam = MC sample size
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% fload = 0 to run new MC; 1 to load prevoiusly generated analysis
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% alpha2 = significance level for bivariate sensitivity analysis
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% [abs(corrcoef) > alpha2]
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% prepSA = 1: save transition matrices for mapping reduced form
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% = 0: no transition matrix saved (default)
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% pprior = 1: sample from prior ranges (default): sample saved in
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% _prior.mat file
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% = 0: sample from posterior ranges: sample saved in
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% _mc.mat file
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% OUTPUT:
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% x0: one parameter vector for which the model is stable.
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%
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% GRAPHS
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% 1) Pdf's of marginal distributions under the stability (dotted
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% lines) and unstability (solid lines) regions
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% 2) Cumulative distributions of:
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% - stable subset (dotted lines)
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% - unacceptable subset (solid lines)
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% 3) Bivariate plots of significant correlation patterns
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% ( abs(corrcoef) > alpha2) under the stable and unacceptable subsets
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%
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% USES qmc_sequence, stab_map_1, stab_map_2
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%
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% Written by Marco Ratto
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% Joint Research Centre, The European Commission,
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% marco.ratto@ec.europa.eu
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% Copyright (C) 2012-2016 European Commission
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% Copyright (C) 2012-2018 Dynare Team
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%
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% This file is part of Dynare.
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%
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% Dynare is free software: you can redistribute it and/or modify
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% it under the terms of the GNU General Public License as published by
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% the Free Software Foundation, either version 3 of the License, or
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% (at your option) any later version.
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%
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% Dynare is distributed in the hope that it will be useful,
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% but WITHOUT ANY WARRANTY; without even the implied warranty of
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% MERCHANTABILITY or FITNESS FOR A PARTICULAR PURPOSE. See the
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% GNU General Public License for more details.
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%
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% You should have received a copy of the GNU General Public License
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% along with Dynare. If not, see <http://www.gnu.org/licenses/>.
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%global bayestopt_ estim_params_ dr_ options_ ys_ fname_
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global bayestopt_ estim_params_ options_ oo_ M_
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% opt_gsa=options_.opt_gsa;
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Nsam = opt_gsa.Nsam;
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fload = opt_gsa.load_stab;
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alpha2 = opt_gsa.alpha2_stab;
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pvalue_ks = opt_gsa.pvalue_ks;
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pvalue_corr = opt_gsa.pvalue_corr;
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prepSA = (opt_gsa.redform | opt_gsa.identification);
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pprior = opt_gsa.pprior;
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neighborhood_width = opt_gsa.neighborhood_width;
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ilptau = opt_gsa.ilptau;
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nliv = opt_gsa.morris_nliv;
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ntra = opt_gsa.morris_ntra;
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dr_ = oo_.dr;
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%if isfield(dr_,'ghx'),
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ys_ = oo_.dr.ys;
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nspred = M_.nspred; %size(dr_.ghx,2);
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nboth = M_.nboth;
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nfwrd = M_.nfwrd;
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%end
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fname_ = M_.fname;
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np = estim_params_.np;
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nshock = estim_params_.nvx;
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nshock = nshock + estim_params_.nvn;
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nshock = nshock + estim_params_.ncx;
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nshock = nshock + estim_params_.ncn;
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lpmat0=zeros(Nsam,0);
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xparam1=[];
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pshape = bayestopt_.pshape(nshock+1:end);
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p1 = bayestopt_.p1(nshock+1:end);
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p2 = bayestopt_.p2(nshock+1:end);
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p3 = bayestopt_.p3(nshock+1:end);
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p4 = bayestopt_.p4(nshock+1:end);
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[junk1,junk2,junk3,lb,ub,junk4] = set_prior(estim_params_,M_,options_); %Prepare bounds
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if ~isempty(bayestopt_) && any(bayestopt_.pshape > 0)
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% Set prior bounds
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bounds = prior_bounds(bayestopt_, options_.prior_trunc);
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bounds.lb = max(bounds.lb,lb);
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bounds.ub = min(bounds.ub,ub);
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else % estimated parameters but no declared priors
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% No priors are declared so Dynare will estimate the model by
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% maximum likelihood with inequality constraints for the parameters.
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bounds.lb = lb;
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bounds.ub = ub;
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if opt_gsa.prior_range==0
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warning('GSA:: When using ML, sampling from the prior is not possible. Setting prior_range=1')
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opt_gsa.prior_range=1;
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end
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end
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if nargin==0
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OutputDirectoryName='';
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end
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options_mcf.pvalue_ks = pvalue_ks;
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options_mcf.pvalue_corr = pvalue_corr;
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options_mcf.alpha2 = alpha2;
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name=cell(np,1);
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name_tex=cell(np,1);
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for jj=1:np
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if options_.TeX
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[param_name_temp, param_name_tex_temp]= get_the_name(nshock+jj,options_.TeX,M_,estim_params_,options_);
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name_tex{jj,1} = strrep(param_name_tex_temp,'$','');
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name{jj,1} = param_name_temp;
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else
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param_name_temp = get_the_name(nshock+jj,options_.TeX,M_,estim_params_,options_);
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name{jj,1} = param_name_temp;
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end
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end
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if options_.TeX
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options_mcf.param_names_tex = name_tex;
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end
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options_mcf.param_names = name;
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options_mcf.fname_ = fname_;
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options_mcf.OutputDirectoryName = OutputDirectoryName;
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options_mcf.xparam1 = [];
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opt=options_;
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options_.periods=0;
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options_.nomoments=1;
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options_.irf=0;
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options_.noprint=1;
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if fload==0
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% if prepSA
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% T=zeros(size(dr_.ghx,1),size(dr_.ghx,2)+size(dr_.ghu,2),Nsam/2);
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% end
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if isfield(dr_,'ghx')
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egg=zeros(length(dr_.eigval),Nsam);
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end
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yys=zeros(length(dr_.ys),Nsam);
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if opt_gsa.morris == 1
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[lpmat, OutFact] = Sampling_Function_2(nliv, np+nshock, ntra, ones(np+nshock, 1), zeros(np+nshock,1), []);
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lpmat = lpmat.*(nliv-1)/nliv+1/nliv/2;
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Nsam=size(lpmat,1);
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lpmat0 = lpmat(:,1:nshock);
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lpmat = lpmat(:,nshock+1:end);
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% elseif opt_gsa.morris==3,
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% lpmat = prep_ide(Nsam,np,5);
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% Nsam=size(lpmat,1);
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else
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if np<52 && ilptau>0
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[lpmat] = qmc_sequence(np, int64(1), 0, Nsam)';
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if np>30 || ilptau==2 % scrambled lptau
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for j=1:np
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lpmat(:,j)=lpmat(randperm(Nsam),j);
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end
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end
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else %ilptau==0
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[lpmat] = NaN(Nsam,np);
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for j=1:np
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lpmat(:,j) = randperm(Nsam)'./(Nsam+1); %latin hypercube
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end
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end
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end
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% try
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dummy=prior_draw_gsa(1); %initialize persistent variables
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% catch
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% if pprior,
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% if opt_gsa.prior_range==0;
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% error('Some unknown prior is specified or ML estimation,: use prior_range=1 option!!');
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% end
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% end
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%
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% end
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if pprior
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for j=1:nshock
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if opt_gsa.morris~=1
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lpmat0(:,j) = randperm(Nsam)'./(Nsam+1); %latin hypercube
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end
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if opt_gsa.prior_range
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lpmat0(:,j)=lpmat0(:,j).*(bounds.ub(j)-bounds.lb(j))+bounds.lb(j);
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end
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end
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if opt_gsa.prior_range
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% if opt_gsa.identification,
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% deltx=min(0.001, 1/Nsam/2);
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% for j=1:np,
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% xdelt(:,:,j)=prior_draw_gsa(0,[lpmat0 lpmat]+deltx);
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% end
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% end
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for j=1:np
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lpmat(:,j)=lpmat(:,j).*(bounds.ub(j+nshock)-bounds.lb(j+nshock))+bounds.lb(j+nshock);
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end
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else
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xx=prior_draw_gsa(0,[lpmat0 lpmat]);
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% if opt_gsa.identification,
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% deltx=min(0.001, 1/Nsam/2);
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% ldum=[lpmat0 lpmat];
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% ldum = prior_draw_gsa(0,ldum+deltx);
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% for j=1:nshock+np,
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% xdelt(:,:,j)=xx;
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% xdelt(:,j,j)=ldum(:,j);
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% end
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% clear ldum
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% end
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lpmat0=xx(:,1:nshock);
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lpmat=xx(:,nshock+1:end);
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clear xx;
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end
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else
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% for j=1:nshock,
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% xparam1(j) = oo_.posterior_mode.shocks_std.(bayestopt_.name{j});
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% sd(j) = oo_.posterior_std.shocks_std.(bayestopt_.name{j});
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% lpmat0(:,j) = randperm(Nsam)'./(Nsam+1); %latin hypercube
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% lb = max(bayestopt_.lb(j), xparam1(j)-2*sd(j));
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% ub1=xparam1(j)+(xparam1(j) - lb); % define symmetric range around the mode!
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% ub = min(bayestopt_.ub(j),ub1);
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% if ub<ub1,
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% lb=xparam1(j)-(ub-xparam1(j)); % define symmetric range around the mode!
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% end
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% lpmat0(:,j) = lpmat0(:,j).*(ub-lb)+lb;
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% end
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% %
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% for j=1:np,
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% xparam1(j+nshock) = oo_.posterior_mode.parameters.(bayestopt_.name{j+nshock});
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% sd(j+nshock) = oo_.posterior_std.parameters.(bayestopt_.name{j+nshock});
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% lb = max(bayestopt_.lb(j+nshock),xparam1(j+nshock)-2*sd(j+nshock));
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% ub1=xparam1(j+nshock)+(xparam1(j+nshock) - lb); % define symmetric range around the mode!
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% ub = min(bayestopt_.ub(j+nshock),ub1);
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% if ub<ub1,
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% lb=xparam1(j+nshock)-(ub-xparam1(j+nshock)); % define symmetric range around the mode!
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% end
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% %ub = min(bayestopt_.ub(j+nshock),xparam1(j+nshock)+2*sd(j+nshock));
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% if np>30 & np<52
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% lpmat(:,j) = lpmat(randperm(Nsam),j).*(ub-lb)+lb;
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% else
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% lpmat(:,j) = lpmat(:,j).*(ub-lb)+lb;
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% end
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% end
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%load([fname_,'_mode'])
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if neighborhood_width>0 && isempty(options_.mode_file)
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xparam1 = get_all_parameters(estim_params_,M_);
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else
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eval(['load ' options_.mode_file '.mat;']);
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end
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if neighborhood_width>0
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for j=1:nshock
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if opt_gsa.morris ~= 1
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lpmat0(:,j) = randperm(Nsam)'./(Nsam+1); %latin hypercube
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end
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ub=min([bounds.ub(j) xparam1(j)*(1+neighborhood_width)]);
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lb=max([bounds.lb(j) xparam1(j)*(1-neighborhood_width)]);
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lpmat0(:,j)=lpmat0(:,j).*(ub-lb)+lb;
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end
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for j=1:np
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ub=xparam1(j+nshock)*(1+sign(xparam1(j+nshock))*neighborhood_width);
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lb=xparam1(j+nshock)*(1-sign(xparam1(j+nshock))*neighborhood_width);
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if bounds.ub(j+nshock)>=xparam1(j) && bounds.lb(j)<=xparam1(j+nshock)
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ub=min([bounds.ub(j+nshock) ub]);
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lb=max([bounds.lb(j+nshock) lb]);
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else
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fprintf('\nstab_map_:: the calibrated value of param %s for neighborhood_width sampling is outside prior bounds.\nWe allow violation of bounds for this parameter, but if this was not done on purpose, please change calibration before running neighborhood_width sampling\n', bayestopt_.name{j+nshock})
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end
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lpmat(:,j)=lpmat(:,j).*(ub-lb)+lb;
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end
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else
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d = chol(inv(hh));
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lp=randn(Nsam*2,nshock+np)*d+kron(ones(Nsam*2,1),xparam1');
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lnprior=zeros(1,Nsam*2);
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for j=1:Nsam*2
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lnprior(j) = any(lp(j,:)'<=bounds.lb | lp(j,:)'>=bounds.ub);
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end
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ireal=[1:2*Nsam];
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ireal=ireal(find(lnprior==0));
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lp=lp(ireal,:);
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Nsam=min(Nsam, length(ireal));
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lpmat0=lp(1:Nsam,1:nshock);
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lpmat=lp(1:Nsam,nshock+1:end);
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clear lp lnprior ireal;
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end
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end
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%
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h = dyn_waitbar(0,'Please wait...');
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istable=[1:Nsam];
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jstab=0;
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iunstable=[1:Nsam];
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iindeterm=zeros(1,Nsam);
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iwrong=zeros(1,Nsam);
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inorestriction=zeros(1,Nsam);
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irestriction=zeros(1,Nsam);
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infox=zeros(Nsam,1);
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for j=1:Nsam
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M_ = set_all_parameters([lpmat0(j,:) lpmat(j,:)]',estim_params_,M_);
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%try stoch_simul([]);
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try
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if ~ isempty(options_.endogenous_prior_restrictions.moment)
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[Tt,Rr,SteadyState,info,M_,options_,oo_] = dynare_resolve(M_,options_,oo_);
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else
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[Tt,Rr,SteadyState,info,M_,options_,oo_] = dynare_resolve(M_,options_,oo_,'restrict');
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end
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infox(j,1)=info(1);
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if infox(j,1)==0 && ~exist('T','var')
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dr_=oo_.dr;
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if prepSA
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try
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T=zeros(size(dr_.ghx,1),size(dr_.ghx,2)+size(dr_.ghu,2),Nsam);
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catch
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ME = lasterror();
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if strcmp('MATLAB:nomem',ME.identifier)
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prepSA=0;
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disp('The model is too large for storing state space matrices ...')
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disp('for mapping reduced form or for identification')
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end
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T=[];
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end
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else
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T=[];
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end
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egg=zeros(length(dr_.eigval),Nsam);
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end
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if infox(j,1)
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% disp('no solution'),
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if isfield(oo_.dr,'ghx')
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oo_.dr=rmfield(oo_.dr,'ghx');
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end
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if (infox(j,1)<3 || infox(j,1)>5) && isfield(oo_.dr,'eigval')
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oo_.dr=rmfield(oo_.dr,'eigval');
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end
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end
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catch ME
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if isfield(oo_.dr,'eigval')
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oo_.dr=rmfield(oo_.dr,'eigval');
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end
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if isfield(oo_.dr,'ghx')
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oo_.dr=rmfield(oo_.dr,'ghx');
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end
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disp('No solution could be found')
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end
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dr_ = oo_.dr;
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if isfield(dr_,'ghx')
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egg(:,j) = sort(dr_.eigval);
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if prepSA
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jstab=jstab+1;
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T(:,:,jstab) = [dr_.ghx dr_.ghu];
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% [A,B] = ghx2transition(squeeze(T(:,:,jstab)), ...
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% bayestopt_.restrict_var_list, ...
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% bayestopt_.restrict_columns, ...
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% bayestopt_.restrict_aux);
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end
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if ~exist('nspred','var')
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nspred = dr_.nspred; %size(dr_.ghx,2);
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nboth = dr_.nboth;
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nfwrd = dr_.nfwrd;
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end
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info=endogenous_prior_restrictions(Tt,Rr,M_,options_,oo_);
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infox(j,1)=info(1);
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if info(1)
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inorestriction(j)=j;
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else
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iunstable(j)=0;
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irestriction(j)=j;
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end
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else
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istable(j)=0;
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if isfield(dr_,'eigval')
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egg(:,j) = sort(dr_.eigval);
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if exist('nspred','var')
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if any(isnan(egg(1:nspred,j)))
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iwrong(j)=j;
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else
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if (nboth || nfwrd) && abs(egg(nspred+1,j))<=options_.qz_criterium
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iindeterm(j)=j;
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end
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end
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end
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else
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if exist('egg','var')
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egg(:,j)=ones(size(egg,1),1).*NaN;
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end
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iwrong(j)=j;
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end
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end
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ys_=real(dr_.ys);
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yys(:,j) = ys_;
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ys_=yys(:,1);
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dyn_waitbar(j/Nsam,h,['MC iteration ',int2str(j),'/',int2str(Nsam)])
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end
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dyn_waitbar_close(h);
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if prepSA && jstab
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T=T(:,:,1:jstab);
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else
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T=[];
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end
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istable=istable(find(istable)); % stable params ignoring restrictions
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irestriction=irestriction(find(irestriction)); % stable params & restrictions OK
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inorestriction=inorestriction(find(inorestriction)); % stable params violating restrictions
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iunstable=iunstable(find(iunstable)); % violation of BK & restrictions & solution could not be found (whatever goes wrong)
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iindeterm=iindeterm(find(iindeterm)); % indeterminacy
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iwrong=iwrong(find(iwrong)); % dynare could not find solution
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ixun=iunstable(find(~ismember(iunstable,[iindeterm,iwrong,inorestriction]))); % explosive roots
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% % map stable samples
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% istable=[1:Nsam];
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% for j=1:Nsam,
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% if any(isnan(egg(1:nspred,j)))
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% istable(j)=0;
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% else
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% if abs(egg(nspred,j))>=options_.qz_criterium; %(1-(options_.qz_criterium-1)); %1-1.e-5;
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% istable(j)=0;
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% %elseif (dr_.nboth | dr_.nfwrd) & abs(egg(nspred+1,j))<=options_.qz_criterium; %1+1.e-5;
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% elseif (nboth | nfwrd) & abs(egg(nspred+1,j))<=options_.qz_criterium; %1+1.e-5;
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% istable(j)=0;
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% end
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% end
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% end
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% istable=istable(find(istable)); % stable params
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%
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% % map unstable samples
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|
% iunstable=[1:Nsam];
|
|
% for j=1:Nsam,
|
|
% %if abs(egg(dr_.npred+1,j))>1+1.e-5 & abs(egg(dr_.npred,j))<1-1.e-5;
|
|
% %if (dr_.nboth | dr_.nfwrd),
|
|
% if ~any(isnan(egg(1:5,j)))
|
|
% if (nboth | nfwrd),
|
|
% if abs(egg(nspred+1,j))>options_.qz_criterium & abs(egg(nspred,j))<options_.qz_criterium; %(1-(options_.qz_criterium-1));
|
|
% iunstable(j)=0;
|
|
% end
|
|
% else
|
|
% if abs(egg(nspred,j))<options_.qz_criterium; %(1-(options_.qz_criterium-1));
|
|
% iunstable(j)=0;
|
|
% end
|
|
% end
|
|
% end
|
|
% end
|
|
% iunstable=iunstable(find(iunstable)); % unstable params
|
|
bkpprior.pshape=bayestopt_.pshape;
|
|
bkpprior.p1=bayestopt_.p1;
|
|
bkpprior.p2=bayestopt_.p2;
|
|
bkpprior.p3=bayestopt_.p3;
|
|
bkpprior.p4=bayestopt_.p4;
|
|
if pprior
|
|
if ~prepSA
|
|
save([OutputDirectoryName filesep fname_ '_prior.mat'], ...
|
|
'bkpprior','lpmat','lpmat0','irestriction','iunstable','istable','iindeterm','iwrong','ixun', ...
|
|
'egg','yys','nspred','nboth','nfwrd','infox')
|
|
else
|
|
save([OutputDirectoryName filesep fname_ '_prior.mat'], ...
|
|
'bkpprior','lpmat','lpmat0','irestriction','iunstable','istable','iindeterm','iwrong','ixun', ...
|
|
'egg','yys','T','nspred','nboth','nfwrd','infox')
|
|
end
|
|
|
|
else
|
|
if ~prepSA
|
|
save([OutputDirectoryName filesep fname_ '_mc.mat'], ...
|
|
'lpmat','lpmat0','irestriction','iunstable','istable','iindeterm','iwrong','ixun', ...
|
|
'egg','yys','nspred','nboth','nfwrd','infox')
|
|
else
|
|
save([OutputDirectoryName filesep fname_ '_mc.mat'], ...
|
|
'lpmat','lpmat0','irestriction','iunstable','istable','iindeterm','iwrong','ixun', ...
|
|
'egg','yys','T','nspred','nboth','nfwrd','infox')
|
|
end
|
|
end
|
|
else
|
|
if pprior
|
|
filetoload=[OutputDirectoryName filesep fname_ '_prior.mat'];
|
|
else
|
|
filetoload=[OutputDirectoryName filesep fname_ '_mc.mat'];
|
|
end
|
|
load(filetoload,'lpmat','lpmat0','irestriction','iunstable','istable','iindeterm','iwrong','ixun','egg','yys','nspred','nboth','nfwrd','infox')
|
|
Nsam = size(lpmat,1);
|
|
if pprior==0 && ~isempty(options_.mode_file)
|
|
eval(['load ' options_.mode_file '.mat;']);
|
|
end
|
|
|
|
|
|
if prepSA && isempty(strmatch('T',who('-file', filetoload),'exact'))
|
|
h = dyn_waitbar(0,'Please wait...');
|
|
options_.periods=0;
|
|
options_.nomoments=1;
|
|
options_.irf=0;
|
|
options_.noprint=1;
|
|
stoch_simul([]);
|
|
%T=zeros(size(dr_.ghx,1),size(dr_.ghx,2)+size(dr_.ghu,2),length(istable));
|
|
ntrans=length(istable);
|
|
yys=NaN(length(ys_),ntrans);
|
|
for j=1:ntrans
|
|
M_.params(estim_params_.param_vals(:,1)) = lpmat(istable(j),:)';
|
|
%stoch_simul([]);
|
|
[Tt,Rr,SteadyState,info,M_,options_,oo_] = dynare_resolve(M_,options_,oo_,'restrict');
|
|
% This syntax is not compatible with the current version of dynare_resolve [stepan].
|
|
%[Tt,Rr,SteadyState,info] = dynare_resolve(bayestopt_.restrict_var_list,...
|
|
% bayestopt_.restrict_columns,...
|
|
% bayestopt_.restrict_aux);
|
|
if ~exist('T','var')
|
|
T=zeros(size(dr_.ghx,1),size(dr_.ghx,2)+size(dr_.ghu,2),ntrans);
|
|
end
|
|
dr_ = oo_.dr;
|
|
T(:,:,j) = [dr_.ghx dr_.ghu];
|
|
if ~exist('nspred','var')
|
|
nspred = dr_.nspred; %size(dr_.ghx,2);
|
|
nboth = dr_.nboth;
|
|
nfwrd = dr_.nfwrd;
|
|
end
|
|
ys_=real(dr_.ys);
|
|
yys(:,j) = ys_;
|
|
ys_=yys(:,1);
|
|
dyn_waitbar(j/ntrans,h,['MC iteration ',int2str(j),'/',int2str(ntrans)])
|
|
end
|
|
dyn_waitbar_close(h);
|
|
save(filetoload,'T','-append')
|
|
elseif prepSA
|
|
load(filetoload,'T')
|
|
end
|
|
end
|
|
|
|
if pprior
|
|
aunstname='prior_unstable'; aunsttitle='Prior StabMap: explosiveness of solution';
|
|
aindname='prior_indeterm'; aindtitle='Prior StabMap: Indeterminacy';
|
|
awrongname='prior_wrong'; awrongtitle='Prior StabMap: inability to find solution';
|
|
acalibname='prior_calib'; acalibtitle='Prior StabMap: IRF/moment restrictions';
|
|
asname='prior_stable'; atitle='Prior StabMap: Parameter driving non-existence of unique stable solution (Unacceptable)';
|
|
else
|
|
aunstname='mc_unstable'; aunsttitle='MC (around posterior mode) StabMap: explosiveness of solution';
|
|
aindname='mc_indeterm'; aindtitle='MC (around posterior mode) StabMap: Indeterminacy';
|
|
awrongname='mc_wrong'; awrongtitle='MC (around posterior mode) StabMap: inability to find solution';
|
|
acalibname='mc_calib'; acalibtitle='MC (around posterior mode) StabMap: IRF/moment restrictions';
|
|
asname='mc_stable'; atitle='MC (around posterior mode) StabMap: Parameter driving non-existence of unique stable solution (Unacceptable)';
|
|
end
|
|
delete([OutputDirectoryName,filesep,fname_,'_',asname,'.*']);
|
|
delete([OutputDirectoryName,filesep,fname_,'_',acalibname,'.*']);
|
|
delete([OutputDirectoryName,filesep,fname_,'_',aindname,'.*']);
|
|
delete([OutputDirectoryName,filesep,fname_,'_',aunstname,'.*']);
|
|
delete([OutputDirectoryName,filesep,fname_,'_',awrongname,'.*']);
|
|
|
|
if length(iunstable)>0 || length(iwrong)>0
|
|
fprintf(['%4.1f%% of the prior support gives unique saddle-path solution.\n'],length(istable)/Nsam*100)
|
|
fprintf(['%4.1f%% of the prior support gives explosive dynamics.\n'],(length(ixun) )/Nsam*100)
|
|
if ~isempty(iindeterm)
|
|
fprintf(['%4.1f%% of the prior support gives indeterminacy.\n'],length(iindeterm)/Nsam*100)
|
|
end
|
|
inorestriction = istable(find(~ismember(istable,irestriction))); % violation of prior restrictions
|
|
if ~isempty(iwrong) || ~isempty(inorestriction)
|
|
skipline()
|
|
if any(infox==49)
|
|
fprintf(['%4.1f%% of the prior support violates prior restrictions.\n'],(length(inorestriction) )/Nsam*100)
|
|
end
|
|
if ~isempty(iwrong)
|
|
skipline()
|
|
disp(['For ',num2str(length(iwrong)/Nsam*100,'%4.1f'),'% of the prior support dynare could not find a solution.'])
|
|
skipline()
|
|
end
|
|
if any(infox==1)
|
|
disp([' For ',num2str(length(find(infox==1))/Nsam*100,'%4.1f'),'% The model doesn''t determine the current variables uniquely.'])
|
|
end
|
|
if any(infox==2)
|
|
disp([' For ',num2str(length(find(infox==2))/Nsam*100,'%4.1f'),'% MJDGGES returned an error code.'])
|
|
end
|
|
if any(infox==6)
|
|
disp([' For ',num2str(length(find(infox==6))/Nsam*100,'%4.1f'),'% The jacobian evaluated at the deterministic steady state is complex.'])
|
|
end
|
|
if any(infox==19)
|
|
disp([' For ',num2str(length(find(infox==19))/Nsam*100,'%4.1f'),'% The steadystate routine has thrown an exception (inconsistent deep parameters).'])
|
|
end
|
|
if any(infox==20)
|
|
disp([' For ',num2str(length(find(infox==20))/Nsam*100,'%4.1f'),'% Cannot find the steady state.'])
|
|
end
|
|
if any(infox==21)
|
|
disp([' For ',num2str(length(find(infox==21))/Nsam*100,'%4.1f'),'% The steady state is complex.'])
|
|
end
|
|
if any(infox==22)
|
|
disp([' For ',num2str(length(find(infox==22))/Nsam*100,'%4.1f'),'% The steady has NaNs.'])
|
|
end
|
|
if any(infox==23)
|
|
disp([' For ',num2str(length(find(infox==23))/Nsam*100,'%4.1f'),'% M_.params has been updated in the steadystate routine and has complex valued scalars.'])
|
|
end
|
|
if any(infox==24)
|
|
disp([' For ',num2str(length(find(infox==24))/Nsam*100,'%4.1f'),'% M_.params has been updated in the steadystate routine and has some NaNs.'])
|
|
end
|
|
if any(infox==30)
|
|
disp([' For ',num2str(length(find(infox==30))/Nsam*100,'%4.1f'),'% Ergodic variance can''t be computed.'])
|
|
end
|
|
|
|
end
|
|
skipline()
|
|
if length(iunstable)<Nsam || length(istable)>1
|
|
itot = [1:Nsam];
|
|
isolve = itot(find(~ismember(itot,iwrong))); % dynare could find a solution
|
|
% Blanchard Kahn
|
|
if neighborhood_width
|
|
options_mcf.xparam1 = xparam1(nshock+1:end);
|
|
end
|
|
itmp = itot(find(~ismember(itot,istable)));
|
|
options_mcf.amcf_name = asname;
|
|
options_mcf.amcf_title = atitle;
|
|
options_mcf.beha_title = 'unique Stable Saddle-Path';
|
|
options_mcf.nobeha_title = 'NO unique Stable Saddle-Path';
|
|
options_mcf.title = 'unique solution';
|
|
mcf_analysis(lpmat, istable, itmp, options_mcf, options_);
|
|
|
|
if ~isempty(iindeterm)
|
|
itmp = isolve(find(~ismember(isolve,iindeterm)));
|
|
options_mcf.amcf_name = aindname;
|
|
options_mcf.amcf_title = aindtitle;
|
|
options_mcf.beha_title = 'NO indeterminacy';
|
|
options_mcf.nobeha_title = 'indeterminacy';
|
|
options_mcf.title = 'indeterminacy';
|
|
mcf_analysis(lpmat, itmp, iindeterm, options_mcf, options_);
|
|
end
|
|
|
|
if ~isempty(ixun)
|
|
itmp = isolve(find(~ismember(isolve,ixun)));
|
|
options_mcf.amcf_name = aunstname;
|
|
options_mcf.amcf_title = aunsttitle;
|
|
options_mcf.beha_title = 'NO explosive solution';
|
|
options_mcf.nobeha_title = 'explosive solution';
|
|
options_mcf.title = 'instability';
|
|
mcf_analysis(lpmat, itmp, ixun, options_mcf, options_);
|
|
end
|
|
|
|
inorestriction = istable(find(~ismember(istable,irestriction))); % violation of prior restrictions
|
|
iwrong = iwrong(find(~ismember(iwrong,inorestriction))); % what went wrong beyond prior restrictions
|
|
if ~isempty(iwrong)
|
|
itmp = itot(find(~ismember(itot,iwrong)));
|
|
options_mcf.amcf_name = awrongname;
|
|
options_mcf.amcf_title = awrongtitle;
|
|
options_mcf.beha_title = 'NO inability to find a solution';
|
|
options_mcf.nobeha_title = 'inability to find a solution';
|
|
options_mcf.title = 'inability to find a solution';
|
|
mcf_analysis(lpmat, itmp, iwrong, options_mcf, options_);
|
|
end
|
|
|
|
if ~isempty(irestriction)
|
|
if neighborhood_width
|
|
options_mcf.xparam1 = xparam1;
|
|
end
|
|
np=size(bayestopt_.name,1);
|
|
name=cell(np,1);
|
|
name_tex=cell(np,1);
|
|
for jj=1:np
|
|
if options_.TeX
|
|
[param_name_temp, param_name_tex_temp]= get_the_name(jj,options_.TeX,M_,estim_params_,options_);
|
|
name_tex{jj,1} = strrep(param_name_tex_temp,'$','');
|
|
name{jj,1} = param_name_temp;
|
|
else
|
|
param_name_temp = get_the_name(jj,options_.TeX,M_,estim_params_,options_);
|
|
name{jj,1} = param_name_temp;
|
|
end
|
|
end
|
|
if options_.TeX
|
|
options_mcf.param_names_tex = name_tex;
|
|
end
|
|
options_mcf.param_names = name;
|
|
options_mcf.amcf_name = acalibname;
|
|
options_mcf.amcf_title = acalibtitle;
|
|
options_mcf.beha_title = 'prior IRF/moment calibration';
|
|
options_mcf.nobeha_title = 'NO prior IRF/moment calibration';
|
|
options_mcf.title = 'prior restrictions';
|
|
mcf_analysis([lpmat0 lpmat], irestriction, inorestriction, options_mcf, options_);
|
|
iok = irestriction(1);
|
|
x0 = [lpmat0(iok,:)'; lpmat(iok,:)'];
|
|
else
|
|
iok = istable(1);
|
|
x0=0.5.*(bounds.ub(1:nshock)-bounds.lb(1:nshock))+bounds.lb(1:nshock);
|
|
x0 = [x0; lpmat(iok,:)'];
|
|
end
|
|
|
|
M_ = set_all_parameters(x0,estim_params_,M_);
|
|
[oo_.dr,info,M_,options_,oo_] = resol(0,M_,options_,oo_);
|
|
% stoch_simul([]);
|
|
else
|
|
disp('All parameter values in the specified ranges are not acceptable!')
|
|
x0=[];
|
|
end
|
|
else
|
|
disp('All parameter values in the specified ranges give unique saddle-path solution,')
|
|
disp('and match prior IRF/moment restriction(s) if any!')
|
|
x0=0.5.*(bounds.ub(1:nshock)-bounds.lb(1:nshock))+bounds.lb(1:nshock);
|
|
x0 = [x0; lpmat(istable(1),:)'];
|
|
|
|
end
|
|
|
|
xparam1=x0;
|
|
save prior_ok.mat xparam1;
|
|
|
|
options_.periods=opt.periods;
|
|
if isfield(opt,'nomoments')
|
|
options_.nomoments=opt.nomoments;
|
|
end
|
|
options_.irf=opt.irf;
|
|
options_.noprint=opt.noprint;
|