dynare/matlab/TaRB_metropolis_hastings_co...

294 lines
16 KiB
Matlab

function myoutput = TaRB_metropolis_hastings_core(myinputs,fblck,nblck,whoiam, ThisMatlab)
% function myoutput = TaRB_metropolis_hastings_core(myinputs,fblck,nblck,whoiam, ThisMatlab)
% Contains the most computationally intensive portion of code in
% random_walk_metropolis_hastings (the 'for xxx = fblck:nblck' loop) using the TaRB algorithm.
% The branches in that 'for'
% cycle are completely independent to be suitable for parallel execution.
%
% INPUTS
% o myimput [struc] The mandatory variables for local/remote
% parallel computing obtained from random_walk_metropolis_hastings.m
% function.
% o fblck and nblck [integer] The Metropolis-Hastings chains.
% o whoiam [integer] In concurrent programming a modality to refer to the different threads running in parallel is needed.
% The integer whoaim is the integer that
% allows us to distinguish between them. Then it is the index number of this CPU among all CPUs in the
% cluster.
% o ThisMatlab [integer] Allows us to distinguish between the
% 'main' Matlab, the slave Matlab worker, local Matlab, remote Matlab,
% ... Then it is the index number of this slave machine in the cluster.
% OUTPUTS
% o myoutput [struc]
% If executed without parallel, this is the original output of 'for b =
% fblck:nblck'. Otherwise, it's a portion of it computed on a specific core or
% remote machine. In this case:
% record;
% irun;
% NewFile;
% OutputFileName
%
% ALGORITHM
% Portion of Tailored Randomized Block Metropolis-Hastings proposed in
% Chib/Ramamurthy (2010): Tailored randomized block MCMC methods with
% application to DSGE models, Journal of Econometrics 155, pp. 19-38
%
% This implementation differs from the originally proposed one in the
% treatment of non-positive definite Hessians. Here we
% - use the Jordan decomposition
%
% SPECIAL REQUIREMENTS.
% None.
%
% PARALLEL CONTEXT
% See the comments in the random_walk_metropolis_hastings.m funtion.
% Copyright (C) 2006-2015 Dynare Team
%
% This file is part of Dynare.
%
% Dynare is free software: you can redistribute it and/or modify
% it under the terms of the GNU General Public License as published by
% the Free Software Foundation, either version 3 of the License, or
% (at your option) any later version.
%
% Dynare is distributed in the hope that it will be useful,
% but WITHOUT ANY WARRANTY; without even the implied warranty of
% MERCHANTABILITY or FITNESS FOR A PARTICULAR PURPOSE. See the
% GNU General Public License for more details.
%
% You should have received a copy of the GNU General Public License
% along with Dynare. If not, see <http://www.gnu.org/licenses/>.
global objective_function_penalty_base;
if nargin<4,
whoiam=0;
end
% reshape 'myinputs' for local computation.
% In order to avoid confusion in the name space, the instruction struct2local(myinputs) is replaced by:
TargetFun=myinputs.TargetFun;
ProposalFun=myinputs.ProposalFun;
xparam1=myinputs.xparam1;
mh_bounds=myinputs.mh_bounds;
last_draw=myinputs.ix2;
last_posterior=myinputs.ilogpo2;
fline=myinputs.fline;
npar=myinputs.npar;
nruns=myinputs.nruns;
NewFile=myinputs.NewFile;
MAX_nruns=myinputs.MAX_nruns;
d=myinputs.d;
InitSizeArray=myinputs.InitSizeArray;
record=myinputs.record;
dataset_ = myinputs.dataset_;
dataset_info = myinputs.dataset_info;
bayestopt_ = myinputs.bayestopt_;
estim_params_ = myinputs.estim_params_;
options_ = myinputs.options_;
M_ = myinputs.M_;
oo_ = myinputs.oo_;
% Necessary only for remote computing!
if whoiam
% initialize persistent variables in priordens()
priordens(xparam1,bayestopt_.pshape,bayestopt_.p6,bayestopt_.p7, bayestopt_.p3,bayestopt_.p4,1);
end
MetropolisFolder = CheckPath('metropolis',M_.dname);
ModelName = M_.fname;
BaseName = [MetropolisFolder filesep ModelName];
options_.lik_algo = 1;
OpenOldFile = ones(nblck,1);
%
% Now I run the (nblck-fblck+1) Metropolis-Hastings chains
%
block_iter=0;
for curr_chain = fblck:nblck,
block_iter=block_iter+1;
try
% This will not work if the master uses a random number generator not
% available in the slave (different Matlab version or
% Matlab/Octave cluster). Therefore the trap.
%
% Set the random number generator type (the seed is useless but needed by the function)
set_dynare_seed(options_.DynareRandomStreams.algo, options_.DynareRandomStreams.seed);
% Set the state of the RNG
set_dynare_random_generator_state(record.InitialSeeds(curr_chain).Unifor, record.InitialSeeds(curr_chain).Normal);
catch
% If the state set by master is incompatible with the slave, we only reseed
set_dynare_seed(options_.DynareRandomStreams.seed+curr_chain);
end
if (options_.load_mh_file~=0) && (fline(curr_chain)>1) && OpenOldFile(curr_chain) %load previous draws and likelihood
load([BaseName '_mh' int2str(NewFile(curr_chain)) '_blck' int2str(curr_chain) '.mat'])
x2 = [x2;zeros(InitSizeArray(curr_chain)-fline(curr_chain)+1,npar)];
logpo2 = [logpo2;zeros(InitSizeArray(curr_chain)-fline(curr_chain)+1,1)];
OpenOldFile(curr_chain) = 0;
else
x2 = zeros(InitSizeArray(curr_chain),npar);
logpo2 = zeros(InitSizeArray(curr_chain),1);
end
%Prepare waiting bars
if whoiam
prc0=(curr_chain-fblck)/(nblck-fblck+1)*(isoctave || options_.console_mode);
hh = dyn_waitbar({prc0,whoiam,options_.parallel(ThisMatlab)},['MH (' int2str(curr_chain) '/' int2str(options_.mh_nblck) ')...']);
else
hh = dyn_waitbar(0,['Metropolis-Hastings (' int2str(curr_chain) '/' int2str(options_.mh_nblck) ')...']);
set(hh,'Name','Metropolis-Hastings');
end
accepted_draws_this_chain = 0;
accepted_draws_this_file = 0;
blocked_draws_counter_this_chain=0;
blocked_draws_counter_this_chain_this_file=0;
draw_index_current_file = fline(curr_chain); %get location of first draw in current block
draw_iter = 1;
while draw_iter <= nruns(curr_chain)
%% randomize indices for blocking in this iteration
indices=randperm(npar)';
blocks=[1; (1+cumsum((rand(length(indices)-1,1)>(1-options_.TaRB.new_block_probability))))];
nblocks=blocks(end,1); %get number of blocks this iteration
current_draw=last_draw(curr_chain,:)'; %get starting point for current draw for updating
for block_iter=1:nblocks
blocked_draws_counter_this_chain=blocked_draws_counter_this_chain+1;
blocked_draws_counter_this_chain_this_file=blocked_draws_counter_this_chain_this_file+1;
nxopt=length(indices(blocks==block_iter,1)); %get size of current block
par_start_current_block=current_draw(indices(blocks==block_iter,1));
[xopt_current_block, fval, exitflag, hess_mat_optimizer, options_, Scale] = dynare_minimize_objective(@TaRB_optimizer_wrapper,par_start_current_block,options_.TaRB.mode_compute,options_,[mh_bounds.lb(indices(blocks==block_iter,1),1) mh_bounds.ub(indices(blocks==block_iter,1),1)],bayestopt_.name,bayestopt_,[],...
current_draw,indices(blocks==block_iter,1),TargetFun,...% inputs for wrapper
dataset_,dataset_info,options_,M_,estim_params_,bayestopt_,mh_bounds,oo_); %inputs for objective
objective_function_penalty_base=Inf; %reset penalty that may have been changed by optimizer
%% covariance for proposal density
hessian_mat = reshape(hessian('TaRB_optimizer_wrapper',xopt_current_block, ...
options_.gstep,...
current_draw,indices(blocks==block_iter,1),TargetFun,...% inputs for wrapper
dataset_,dataset_info,options_,M_,estim_params_,bayestopt_,mh_bounds,oo_),nxopt,nxopt);
if any(any(isnan(hessian_mat))) || any(any(isinf(hessian_mat)))
inverse_hessian_mat=eye(nxopt)*1e-4; %use diagonal
else
inverse_hessian_mat=inv(hessian_mat); %get inverse Hessian
if any(any((isnan(inverse_hessian_mat)))) || any(any((isinf(inverse_hessian_mat))))
inverse_hessian_mat=eye(nxopt)*1e-4; %use diagonal
end
end
[proposal_covariance_Cholesky_decomposition_upper,negeigenvalues]=chol(inverse_hessian_mat);
%if not positive definite, use generalized Cholesky if
%Eskow/Schnabel
if negeigenvalues~=0
proposal_covariance_Cholesky_decomposition_upper=chol_SE(inverse_hessian_mat,0);
end
proposal_covariance_Cholesky_decomposition_upper=proposal_covariance_Cholesky_decomposition_upper*diag(bayestopt_.jscale(indices(blocks==block_iter,1),:));
%get proposal draw
if strcmpi(ProposalFun,'rand_multivariate_normal')
n = nxopt;
elseif strcmpi(ProposalFun,'rand_multivariate_student')
n = options_.student_degrees_of_freedom;
end
proposed_par = feval(ProposalFun, xopt_current_block', proposal_covariance_Cholesky_decomposition_upper, n);
% chech whether draw is valid and compute posterior
if all( proposed_par(:) > mh_bounds.lb(indices(blocks==block_iter,1),:) ) && all( proposed_par(:) < mh_bounds.ub(indices(blocks==block_iter,1),:) )
try
logpost = - feval('TaRB_optimizer_wrapper', proposed_par(:),...
current_draw,indices(blocks==block_iter,1),TargetFun,...% inputs for wrapper
dataset_,dataset_info,options_,M_,estim_params_,bayestopt_,mh_bounds,oo_);
catch
logpost = -inf;
end
else
logpost = -inf;
end
%get ratio of proposal densities, required because proposal depends
%on current mode via Hessian and is thus not symmetric anymore
if strcmpi(ProposalFun,'rand_multivariate_normal')
proposal_density_proposed_move_forward=multivariate_normal_pdf(proposed_par,xopt_current_block',proposal_covariance_Cholesky_decomposition_upper,n);
proposal_density_proposed_move_backward=multivariate_normal_pdf(par_start_current_block',xopt_current_block',proposal_covariance_Cholesky_decomposition_upper,n);
elseif strcmpi(ProposalFun,'rand_multivariate_student')
proposal_density_proposed_move_forward=multivariate_student_pdf(proposed_par,xopt_current_block',proposal_covariance_Cholesky_decomposition_upper,n);
proposal_density_proposed_move_backward=multivariate_student_pdf(par_start_current_block',xopt_current_block',proposal_covariance_Cholesky_decomposition_upper,n);
end
accprob=logpost-last_posterior(curr_chain)+ log(proposal_density_proposed_move_backward)-log(proposal_density_proposed_move_forward); %Formula (6), Chib/Ramamurthy
if (logpost > -inf) && (log(rand) < accprob)
current_draw(indices(blocks==block_iter,1))=proposed_par;
last_posterior(curr_chain)=logpost;
accepted_draws_this_chain =accepted_draws_this_chain +1;
accepted_draws_this_file = accepted_draws_this_file + 1;
else %no updating
%do nothing, keep old value
end
end
%save draws and update stored last values
x2(draw_index_current_file,:) = current_draw;
last_draw(curr_chain,:) = current_draw;
%save posterior after full run through all blocks
logpo2(draw_index_current_file) = last_posterior(curr_chain);
prtfrc = draw_iter/nruns(curr_chain);
if (mod(draw_iter, 3)==0 && ~whoiam) || (mod(draw_iter,50)==0 && whoiam)
dyn_waitbar(prtfrc,hh,[ 'MH (' int2str(curr_chain) '/' int2str(options_.mh_nblck) ') ' sprintf('Current acceptance ratio %4.3f', accepted_draws_this_chain/blocked_draws_counter_this_chain)]);
end
if (draw_index_current_file == InitSizeArray(curr_chain)) || (draw_iter == nruns(curr_chain)) % Now I save the simulations, either because the current file is full or the chain is done
[LastSeeds.(['file' int2str(NewFile(curr_chain))]).Unifor, LastSeeds.(['file' int2str(NewFile(curr_chain))]).Normal] = get_dynare_random_generator_state();
save([BaseName '_mh' int2str(NewFile(curr_chain)) '_blck' int2str(curr_chain) '.mat'],'x2','logpo2','LastSeeds');
fidlog = fopen([MetropolisFolder '/metropolis.log'],'a');
fprintf(fidlog,['\n']);
fprintf(fidlog,['%% Mh' int2str(NewFile(curr_chain)) 'Blck' int2str(curr_chain) ' (' datestr(now,0) ')\n']);
fprintf(fidlog,' \n');
fprintf(fidlog,[' Number of simulations.: ' int2str(length(logpo2)) '\n']);
fprintf(fidlog,[' Acceptance ratio......: ' num2str(accepted_draws_this_file /blocked_draws_counter_this_chain_this_file) '\n']);
fprintf(fidlog,[' Posterior mean........:\n']);
for i=1:length(x2(1,:))
fprintf(fidlog,[' params:' int2str(i) ': ' num2str(mean(x2(:,i))) '\n']);
end
fprintf(fidlog,[' log2po:' num2str(mean(logpo2)) '\n']);
fprintf(fidlog,[' Minimum value.........:\n']);
for i=1:length(x2(1,:))
fprintf(fidlog,[' params:' int2str(i) ': ' num2str(min(x2(:,i))) '\n']);
end
fprintf(fidlog,[' log2po:' num2str(min(logpo2)) '\n']);
fprintf(fidlog,[' Maximum value.........:\n']);
for i=1:length(x2(1,:))
fprintf(fidlog,[' params:' int2str(i) ': ' num2str(max(x2(:,i))) '\n']);
end
fprintf(fidlog,[' log2po:' num2str(max(logpo2)) '\n']);
fprintf(fidlog,' \n');
fclose(fidlog);
%reset counters;
accepted_draws_this_file = 0;
blocked_draws_counter_this_chain_this_file=0;
if draw_iter == nruns(curr_chain) % I record the last draw...
record.LastParameters(curr_chain,:) = x2(end,:);
record.LastLogPost(curr_chain) = logpo2(end);
end
% size of next file in chain curr_chain
InitSizeArray(curr_chain) = min(nruns(curr_chain)-draw_iter,MAX_nruns);
% initialization of next file if necessary
if InitSizeArray(curr_chain)
x2 = zeros(InitSizeArray(curr_chain),npar);
logpo2 = zeros(InitSizeArray(curr_chain),1);
NewFile(curr_chain) = NewFile(curr_chain) + 1;
draw_index_current_file = 0;
end
end
draw_iter=draw_iter+1;
draw_index_current_file = draw_index_current_file + 1;
end% End of the simulations for one mh-block.
record.AcceptanceRatio(curr_chain) = accepted_draws_this_chain/blocked_draws_counter_this_chain;
dyn_waitbar_close(hh);
[record.LastSeeds(curr_chain).Unifor, record.LastSeeds(curr_chain).Normal] = get_dynare_random_generator_state();
OutputFileName(block_iter,:) = {[MetropolisFolder,filesep], [ModelName '_mh*_blck' int2str(curr_chain) '.mat']};
end% End of the loop over the mh-blocks.
myoutput.record = record;
myoutput.irun = draw_index_current_file;
myoutput.NewFile = NewFile;
myoutput.OutputFileName = OutputFileName;