406 lines
20 KiB
Matlab
406 lines
20 KiB
Matlab
function [alphahat,etahat,epsilonhat,ahat0,SteadyState,trend_coeff,aKK,T0,R0,P,PKK,decomp,Trend,state_uncertainty,M_,oo_,bayestopt_] = DSGE_smoother(xparam1,gend,Y,data_index,missing_value,M_,oo_,options_,bayestopt_,estim_params_,dataset_, dataset_info)
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%function [alphahat,etahat,epsilonhat,ahat0,SteadyState,trend_coeff,aKK,T0,R0,P,PKK,decomp,Trend,state_uncertainty,M_,oo_,bayestopt_] = DSGE_smoother(xparam1,gend,Y,data_index,missing_value,M_,oo_,options_,bayestopt_,estim_params_,dataset_, dataset_info)
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% Runs a DSGE smoother with occasionally binding constraints
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%
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% INPUTS
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% - xparam1 [double] (p*1) vector of (estimated) parameters.
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% - gend [integer] scalar specifying the number of observations
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% - Y [double] (n*T) matrix of data.
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% - data_index [cell] 1*smpl cell of column vectors of indices.
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% - missing_value [boolean] 1 if missing values, 0 otherwise
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% - M_ [structure] Matlab's structure describing the model (M_).
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% - oo_ [structure] Matlab's structure containing the results (oo_).
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% - options_ [structure] Matlab's structure describing the current options (options_).
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% - bayestopt_ [structure] describing the priors
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% - estim_params_ [structure] characterizing parameters to be estimated
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% - dataset_ [structure] the dataset after required transformation
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% - dataset_info [structure] Various informations about the dataset (descriptive statistics and missing observations)
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%
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% OUTPUTS
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% - alphahat [double] (m*T) matrix, smoothed endogenous variables (a_{t|T}) (decision-rule order)
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% - etahat [double] (r*T) matrix, smoothed structural shocks (r>=n is the number of shocks).
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% - epsilonhat [double] (n*T) matrix, smoothed measurement errors.
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% - ahat0 [double] (m*T) matrix, updated (endogenous) variables (a_{t|t}) (decision-rule order)
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% - SteadyState [double] (m*1) vector specifying the steady state level of each endogenous variable (declaration order)
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% - trend_coeff [double] (n*1) vector, parameters specifying the slope of the trend associated to each observed variable.
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% - aKK [double] (K,n,T+K) array, k (k=1,...,K) steps ahead
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% filtered (endogenous) variables (decision-rule order)
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% - T0 and R0 [double] Matrices defining the state equation (T is the (m*m) transition matrix).
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% - P: (m*m*(T+1)) 3D array of one-step ahead forecast error variance
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% matrices (decision-rule order)
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% - PKK (K*m*m*(T+K)) 4D array of k-step ahead forecast error variance
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% matrices (meaningless for periods 1:d) (decision-rule order)
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% - decomp (K*m*r*(T+K)) 4D array of shock decomposition of k-step ahead
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% filtered variables (decision-rule order)
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% - Trend [double] (n*T) pure trend component; stored in options_.varobs order
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% - state_uncertainty [double] (K,K,T) array, storing the uncertainty
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% about the smoothed state (decision-rule order)
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% - M_ [structure] decribing the model
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% - oo_ [structure] storing the results
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% - options_ [structure] describing the options
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% - bayestopt_ [structure] describing the priors
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% Copyright © 2021 Dynare Team
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%
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% This file is part of Dynare.
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%
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% Dynare is free software: you can redistribute it and/or modify
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% it under the terms of the GNU General Public License as published by
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% the Free Software Foundation, either version 3 of the License, or
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% (at your option) any later version.
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%
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% Dynare is distributed in the hope that it will be useful,
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% but WITHOUT ANY WARRANTY; without even the implied warranty of
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% MERCHANTABILITY or FITNESS FOR A PARTICULAR PURPOSE. See the
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% GNU General Public License for more details.
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%
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% You should have received a copy of the GNU General Public License
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% along with Dynare. If not, see <https://www.gnu.org/licenses/>.
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smoother_field_list = {'SmoothedVariables', 'UpdatedVariables', 'SmoothedShocks'};
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regime_history=[];
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if options_.occbin.smoother.linear_smoother && nargin==12
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%% linear smoother
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options_.occbin.smoother.status=false;
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[alphahat,etahat,epsilonhat,ahat,SteadyState,trend_coeff,aK,T0,R0,P,PK,decomp,Trend,state_uncertainty,M_,oo_,bayestopt_] = DsgeSmoother(xparam1,gend,Y,data_index,missing_value,M_,oo_,options_,bayestopt_,estim_params_);
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tmp_smoother=store_smoother_results(M_,oo_,options_,bayestopt_,dataset_,dataset_info,alphahat,etahat,epsilonhat,ahat,SteadyState,trend_coeff,aK,P,PK,decomp,Trend,state_uncertainty);
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for jf=1:length(smoother_field_list)
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oo_.occbin.linear_smoother.(smoother_field_list{jf}) = tmp_smoother.(smoother_field_list{jf});
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end
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oo_.occbin.linear_smoother.alphahat=alphahat;
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oo_.occbin.linear_smoother.etahat=etahat;
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oo_.occbin.linear_smoother.epsilonhat=epsilonhat;
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oo_.occbin.linear_smoother.ahat=ahat;
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oo_.occbin.linear_smoother.SteadyState=SteadyState;
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oo_.occbin.linear_smoother.trend_coeff=trend_coeff;
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oo_.occbin.linear_smoother.aK=aK;
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oo_.occbin.linear_smoother.T0=T0;
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oo_.occbin.linear_smoother.R0=R0;
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oo_.occbin.linear_smoother.decomp=decomp;
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fprintf('\nOccbin: linear smoother done.\n')
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options_.occbin.smoother.status=true;
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end
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% if init_mode
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%% keep these commented lines for the moment, should some nasty problem in the future call back for this option
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% shocks1 = etahat(:,2:end)';
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% clear regime_history ;
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%
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% for ii = 1:gend-1
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%
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% fprintf('Period number %d out of %d \n',ii,gend-1)
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% opts_simul.SHOCKS = shocks1(ii,:);
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% opts_simul.endo_init = alphahat(oo_.dr.inv_order_var,ii);
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% out = occbin.runsim_fn(opts_simul, M_, oo_, options_);
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% regime_history(ii) = out.regime_history;
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% end
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%
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% [TT,RR] = dynare_resolve(M_,options_,oo_);
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% CC = zeros([size(RR,1),gend ]);
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% else
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opts_simul = options_.occbin.simul;
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opts_simul.curb_retrench = options_.occbin.smoother.curb_retrench;
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opts_simul.maxit = options_.occbin.smoother.maxit;
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opts_simul.waitbar = options_.occbin.smoother.waitbar;
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opts_simul.periods = options_.occbin.smoother.periods;
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opts_simul.check_ahead_periods = options_.occbin.smoother.check_ahead_periods;
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opts_simul.periodic_solution = options_.occbin.smoother.periodic_solution;
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opts_simul.full_output = options_.occbin.smoother.full_output;
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opts_simul.piecewise_only = options_.occbin.smoother.piecewise_only;
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% init_mode = options_.occbin.smoother.init_mode; % 0 = standard; 1 = unconditional frcsts zero shocks+smoothed states in each period
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% init_mode = 0;
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occbin_options = struct();
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occbin_options.first_period_occbin_update = options_.occbin.smoother.first_period_occbin_update;
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occbin_options.opts_regime = opts_simul; % this builds the opts_simul options field needed by occbin.solver
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occbin_options.opts_regime.binding_indicator = options_.occbin.likelihood.init_binding_indicator;
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occbin_options.opts_regime.regime_history=options_.occbin.likelihood.init_regime_history;
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[alphahat,etahat,epsilonhat,ahat,SteadyState,trend_coeff,aK,T0,R0,P,PK,decomp,Trend,state_uncertainty,M_,oo_,bayestopt_] = DsgeSmoother(xparam1,gend,Y,data_index,missing_value,M_,oo_,options_,bayestopt_,estim_params_,occbin_options);% T1=TT;
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oo_.occbin.smoother.realtime_regime_history = oo_.occbin.smoother.regime_history;
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regime_history = oo_.occbin.smoother.regime_history;
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opts_regime.regime_history = oo_.occbin.smoother.regime_history;
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ahat0 = ahat;
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aKK=aK;
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PKK=PK;
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clear aK PK;
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occbin_options.first_period_occbin_update = inf;
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opts_regime.binding_indicator=[];
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regime_history0 = regime_history;
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fprintf('Occbin smoother iteration 1.\n')
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opts_simul.SHOCKS = [etahat(:,2:end)'; zeros(1,M_.exo_nbr)];
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opts_simul.exo_pos = 1:M_.exo_nbr;
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opts_simul.endo_init = alphahat(oo_.dr.inv_order_var,1);
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opts_simul.init_regime=regime_history; % use realtime regime for guess, to avoid multiple solution issues!
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options_.occbin.simul=opts_simul;
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[~, out, ss] = occbin.solver(M_,oo_,options_);
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regime_history = out.regime_history;
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if options_.smoother_redux
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occbin_options.opts_simul.restrict_state_space =1;
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oo_.occbin.linear_smoother.T0=ss.T(oo_.dr.order_var,oo_.dr.order_var,1);
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oo_.occbin.linear_smoother.R0=ss.R(oo_.dr.order_var,:,1);
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end
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TT = ss.T(oo_.dr.order_var,oo_.dr.order_var,:);
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RR = ss.R(oo_.dr.order_var,:,:);
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CC = ss.C(oo_.dr.order_var,:);
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TT = cat(3,TT(:,:,1),TT);
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RR = cat(3,RR(:,:,1),RR);
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CC = cat(2,CC(:,1),CC);
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opts_regime.regime_history = regime_history;
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opts_regime.binding_indicator = [];
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[TT, RR, CC, regime_history] = occbin.check_regimes(TT, RR, CC, opts_regime, M_, oo_, options_);
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is_changed = ~isequal(regime_history0,regime_history);
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if isempty(regime_history0)
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regime_history0 = regime_history;
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end
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iter=1;
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is_periodic = 0;
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is_changed_start = 0;
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maxiter = options_.occbin.smoother.max_number_of_iterations;
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occbin_smoother_fast = options_.occbin.smoother.fast;
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occbin_smoother_debug=options_.occbin.smoother.debug;
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sto_alphahat=alphahat;
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sto_etahat={etahat};
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sto_CC = CC;
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sto_RR = RR;
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sto_TT = TT;
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for k=1:size(TT,3)
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sto_eee(:,k) = eig(TT(:,:,k));
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end
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while is_changed && maxiter>iter && ~is_periodic
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iter=iter+1;
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fprintf('Occbin smoother iteration %u.\n', iter)
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occbin_options.opts_regime.regime_history=regime_history;
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[alphahat,etahat,epsilonhat,ahat,SteadyState,trend_coeff,aK,T0,R0,P,PK,decomp,Trend,state_uncertainty,M_,oo_,bayestopt_] = DsgeSmoother(xparam1,gend,Y,data_index,missing_value,M_,oo_,options_,bayestopt_,estim_params_,occbin_options,TT,RR,CC);% T1=TT;
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sto_etahat(iter)={etahat};
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regime_history0(iter,:) = regime_history;
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save('info1','regime_history0');
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sto_CC = CC;
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sto_RR = RR;
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sto_TT = TT;
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opts_simul.SHOCKS = [etahat(:,2:end)'; zeros(1,M_.exo_nbr)];
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opts_simul.endo_init = alphahat(oo_.dr.inv_order_var,1);
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options_.occbin.simul=opts_simul;
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[~, out, ss] = occbin.solver(M_,oo_,options_);
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regime_history = out.regime_history;
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TT = ss.T(oo_.dr.order_var,oo_.dr.order_var,:);
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RR = ss.R(oo_.dr.order_var,:,:);
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CC = ss.C(oo_.dr.order_var,:);
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TT = cat(3,TT(:,:,1),TT);
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RR = cat(3,RR(:,:,1),RR);
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CC = cat(2,CC(:,1),CC);
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opts_regime.regime_history = regime_history;
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[TT, RR, CC, regime_history] = occbin.check_regimes(TT, RR, CC, opts_regime, M_, oo_, options_);
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is_changed = ~isequal(regime_history0(iter,:),regime_history);
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if M_.occbin.constraint_nbr==2
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for k=1:size(regime_history0,2)
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isdiff_regime(k,1) = ~isequal(regime_history0(end,k).regime1,regime_history(k).regime1);
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isdiff_start(k,1) = ~isequal(regime_history0(end,k).regimestart1,regime_history(k).regimestart1);
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isdiff_(k,1) = isdiff_regime(k,1) || isdiff_start(k,1);
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isdiff_regime(k,2) = ~isequal(regime_history0(end,k).regime2,regime_history(k).regime2);
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isdiff_start(k,2) = ~isequal(regime_history0(end,k).regimestart2,regime_history(k).regimestart2);
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isdiff_(k,2) = isdiff_regime(k,2) || isdiff_start(k,2);
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end
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is_changed_regime = ~isempty(find(isdiff_regime(:,1))) || ~isempty(find(isdiff_regime(:,2)));
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is_changed_start = ~isempty(find(isdiff_start(:,1))) || ~isempty(find(isdiff_start(:,2)));
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else
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for k=1:size(regime_history0,2)
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isdiff_regime(k,1) = ~isequal(regime_history0(end,k).regime,regime_history(k).regime);
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isdiff_start(k,1) = ~isequal(regime_history0(end,k).regimestart,regime_history(k).regimestart);
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isdiff_(k,1) = isdiff_regime(k,1) || isdiff_start(k,1);
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end
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is_changed_regime = ~isempty(find(isdiff_regime(:,1)));
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is_changed_start = ~isempty(find(isdiff_start(:,1)));
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end
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if occbin_smoother_fast
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is_changed = is_changed_regime;
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end
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if iter>1
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for kiter=1:iter-1
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is_tmp = isequal(regime_history0(kiter,:),regime_history);
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if is_tmp
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break
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end
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end
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is_periodic = (is_changed && is_tmp);
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end
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if is_changed
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for k=1:size(TT,3)
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eee(:,k) = eig(TT(:,:,k));
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end
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err_eig(iter-1) = max(max(abs(sort(eee)-sort(sto_eee))));
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err_alphahat(iter-1) = max(max(max(abs(alphahat-sto_alphahat))));
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err_etahat(iter-1) = max(max(max(abs(etahat-sto_etahat{iter-1}))));
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err_CC(iter-1) = max(max(max(abs(CC-sto_CC))));
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err_RR(iter-1) = max(max(max(abs(RR-sto_RR))));
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err_TT(iter-1) = max(max(max(abs(TT-sto_TT))));
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end
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if occbin_smoother_debug
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regime_ = cell(0);
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regime_new = regime_;
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start_ = regime_;
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start_new = regime_;
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if M_.occbin.constraint_nbr==2
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indx_init_1 = find(isdiff_(:,1));
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if ~isempty(indx_init_1)
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qq={regime_history0(end,indx_init_1).regime1}';
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for j=1:length(qq), regime_(j,1) = {int2str(qq{j})}; end
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qq={regime_history0(end,indx_init_1).regimestart1}';
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for j=1:length(qq), start_(j,1) = {int2str(qq{j})}; end
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qq={regime_history(indx_init_1).regime1}';
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for j=1:length(qq), regime_new(j,1) = {int2str(qq{j})}; end
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qq={regime_history(indx_init_1).regimestart1}';
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for j=1:length(qq), start_new(j,1) = {int2str(qq{j})}; end
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disp('Time points where regime 1 differs')
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if ~isoctave
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disp(table(indx_init_1, regime_, start_, regime_new, start_new))
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else % The table() function is not implemented in Octave, print something more or less equivalent (though much less readable)
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disp(vertcat({'indx_init_1', 'regime_', 'start_', 'regime_new', 'start_new'}, ...
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horzcat(num2cell(indx_init_1), regime_, start_, regime_new, start_new)))
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end
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end
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indx_init_2 = find(isdiff_(:,2));
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if ~isempty(indx_init_2)
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regime_ = cell(0);
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regime_new = regime_;
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start_ = regime_;
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start_new = regime_;
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qq={regime_history0(end,indx_init_2).regime2}';
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for j=1:length(qq), regime_(j,1) = {int2str(qq{j})}; end
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qq={regime_history0(end,indx_init_2).regimestart2}';
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for j=1:length(qq), start_(j,1) = {int2str(qq{j})}; end
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qq={regime_history(indx_init_2).regime2}';
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for j=1:length(qq), regime_new(j,1) = {int2str(qq{j})}; end
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qq={regime_history(indx_init_2).regimestart2}';
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for j=1:length(qq), start_new(j,1) = {int2str(qq{j})}; end
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disp('Time points where regime 2 differs ')
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if ~isoctave
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disp(table(indx_init_2, regime_, start_, regime_new, start_new))
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else % The table() function is not implemented in Octave, print something more or less equivalent (though much less readable)
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disp(vertcat({'indx_init_2', 'regime_', 'start_', 'regime_new', 'start_new'}, ...
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horzcat(num2cell(indx_init_2), regime_, start_, regime_new, start_new)))
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end
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end
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else
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indx_init_1 = find(isdiff_(:,1));
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if ~isempty(indx_init_1)
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qq={regime_history0(end,indx_init_1).regime}';
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for j=1:length(qq), regime_(j,1) = {int2str(qq{j})}; end
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qq={regime_history0(end,indx_init_1).regimestart}';
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for j=1:length(qq), start_(j,1) = {int2str(qq{j})}; end
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qq={regime_history(indx_init_1).regime}';
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for j=1:length(qq), regime_new(j,1) = {int2str(qq{j})}; end
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qq={regime_history(indx_init_1).regimestart}';
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for j=1:length(qq), start_new(j,1) = {int2str(qq{j})}; end
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disp('Time points where regime differs')
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if ~isoctave
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disp(table(indx_init_1, regime_, start_, regime_new, start_new))
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else % The table() function is not implemented in Octave, print something more or less equivalent (though much less readable)
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disp(vertcat({'indx_init_1', 'regime_', 'start_', 'regime_new', 'start_new'}, ...
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horzcat(num2cell(indx_init_1), regime_, start_, regime_new, start_new)))
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end
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end
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end
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end
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if is_changed
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sto_alphahat=alphahat;
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sto_eee = eee;
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end
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end
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regime_history0(max(iter+1,1),:) = regime_history;
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oo_.occbin.smoother.regime_history=regime_history0(end,:);
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oo_.occbin.smoother.regime_history_iter=regime_history0;
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save('info1','regime_history0')
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if (maxiter==iter && is_changed) || is_periodic
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disp(['Occbin smoother did not converge.'])
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if is_periodic
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disp(['Occbin smoother algo loops between two solutions.'])
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end
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else
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disp(['Occbin smoother converged.'])
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if occbin_smoother_fast && is_changed_start
|
|
disp('WARNING: fast algo is used, regime(s) duration(s) was not forced to converge')
|
|
end
|
|
end
|
|
if (~is_changed || occbin_smoother_debug) && nargin==12
|
|
if is_changed
|
|
CC = sto_CC;
|
|
RR = sto_RR;
|
|
TT = sto_TT;
|
|
oo_.occbin.smoother.regime_history=regime_history0(end-1,:);
|
|
end
|
|
tmp_smoother=store_smoother_results(M_,oo_,options_,bayestopt_,dataset_,dataset_info,alphahat,etahat,epsilonhat,ahat0,SteadyState,trend_coeff,aKK,P,PKK,decomp,Trend,state_uncertainty);
|
|
for jf=1:length(smoother_field_list)
|
|
oo_.occbin.smoother.(smoother_field_list{jf}) = tmp_smoother.(smoother_field_list{jf});
|
|
end
|
|
oo_.occbin.smoother.alphahat=alphahat;
|
|
oo_.occbin.smoother.etahat=etahat;
|
|
oo_.occbin.smoother.epsilonhat=epsilonhat;
|
|
oo_.occbin.smoother.ahat=ahat0;
|
|
oo_.occbin.smoother.SteadyState=SteadyState;
|
|
oo_.occbin.smoother.trend_coeff=trend_coeff;
|
|
oo_.occbin.smoother.aK=aKK;
|
|
oo_.occbin.smoother.T0=TT;
|
|
oo_.occbin.smoother.R0=RR;
|
|
oo_.occbin.smoother.C0=CC;
|
|
if options_.occbin.smoother.plot
|
|
GraphDirectoryName = CheckPath('graphs',M_.fname);
|
|
j1=0;
|
|
ifig=0;
|
|
for j=1:M_.exo_nbr
|
|
if M_.Sigma_e(j,j)
|
|
j1=j1+1;
|
|
if mod(j1,9)==1
|
|
hfig = dyn_figure(options_.nodisplay,'name','Occbin smoothed shocks');
|
|
ifig=ifig+1;
|
|
isub=0;
|
|
end
|
|
isub=isub+1;
|
|
subplot(3,3,isub)
|
|
if options_.occbin.smoother.linear_smoother
|
|
plot(oo_.occbin.linear_smoother.etahat(j,:)','linewidth',2)
|
|
hold on,
|
|
end
|
|
plot(oo_.occbin.smoother.etahat(j,:)','r--','linewidth',2)
|
|
hold on, plot([0 options_.nobs],[0 0],'k--')
|
|
set(gca,'xlim',[0 options_.nobs])
|
|
title(deblank(M_.exo_names(j,:)),'interpreter','none')
|
|
if mod(j1,9)==0
|
|
if options_.occbin.smoother.linear_smoother
|
|
annotation('textbox', [0.1,0,0.35,0.05],'String', 'Linear','Color','Blue','horizontalalignment','center','interpreter','none');
|
|
end
|
|
annotation('textbox', [0.55,0,0.35,0.05],'String', 'Piecewise','Color','Red','horizontalalignment','center','interpreter','none');
|
|
dyn_saveas(gcf,[GraphDirectoryName filesep M_.fname,'_smoothedshocks_occbin',int2str(ifig)],options_.nodisplay,options_.graph_format);
|
|
end
|
|
end
|
|
|
|
if mod(j1,9)~=0 && j==M_.exo_nbr
|
|
annotation('textbox', [0.1,0,0.35,0.05],'String', 'Linear','Color','Blue','horizontalalignment','center','interpreter','none');
|
|
annotation('textbox', [0.55,0,0.35,0.05],'String', 'Piecewise','Color','Red','horizontalalignment','center','interpreter','none');
|
|
dyn_saveas(hfig,[GraphDirectoryName filesep M_.fname,'_smoothedshocks_occbin',int2str(ifig)],options_.nodisplay,options_.graph_format);
|
|
end
|
|
end
|
|
end
|
|
|
|
end
|
|
|