function [LIK, lik,a,P] = univariate_kalman_filter(data_index,number_of_observations,no_more_missing_observations,Y,start,last,a,P,kalman_tol,riccati_tol,presample,T,Q,R,H,Z,mm,pp,rr,Zflag,diffuse_periods) % Computes the likelihood of a stationnary state space model (univariate approach). % % INPUTS % data_index [cell] 1*smpl cell of column vectors of indices. % number_of_observations [integer] scalar. % no_more_missing_observations [integer] scalar. % Y [double] pp*smpl matrix of data. % start [integer] scalar, index of the first observation (column of Y). % last [integer] scalar, index of the last observation (column of Y). % a [double] mm*1 vector, initial level of the state vector. % P [double] mm*mm matrix, covariance matrix of the initial state vector. % kalman_tol [double] scalar, tolerance parameter (rcond). % riccati_tol [double] scalar, tolerance parameter (riccati iteration). % presample [integer] scalar, presampling if strictly positive. % T [double] mm*mm transition matrix of the state equation. % Q [double] rr*rr covariance matrix of the structural innovations. % R [double] mm*rr matrix, mapping structural innovations to state variables. % H [double] pp*pp (or 1*1 =0 if no measurement error) covariance matrix of the measurement errors. % Z [integer] pp*1 vector of indices for the observed variables. % mm [integer] scalar, dimension of the state vector. % pp [integer] scalar, number of observed variables. % rr [integer] scalar, number of structural innovations. % % OUTPUTS % LIK [double] scalar, MINUS loglikelihood % lik [double] vector, density of observations in each period. % a [double] mm*1 vector, estimated level of the states. % P [double] mm*mm matrix, covariance matrix of the states. % % % NOTES % The vector "lik" is used to evaluate the jacobian of the likelihood. % Copyright (C) 2004-2011 Dynare Team % stephane DOT adjemian AT ens DOT fr % % This file is part of Dynare. % % Dynare is free software: you can redistribute it and/or modify % it under the terms of the GNU General Public License as published by % the Free Software Foundation, either version 3 of the License, or % (at your option) any later version. % % Dynare is distributed in the hope that it will be useful, % but WITHOUT ANY WARRANTY; without even the implied warranty of % MERCHANTABILITY or FITNESS FOR A PARTICULAR PURPOSE. See the % GNU General Public License for more details. % % You should have received a copy of the GNU General Public License % along with Dynare. If not, see . if nargin<20 || isempty(Zflag)% Set default value for Zflag ==> Z is a vector of indices. Zflag = 0; diffuse_periods = 0; end if nargin<21 diffuse_periods = 0; end % Get sample size. smpl = last-start+1; % Initialize some variables. QQ = R*Q*transpose(R); % Variance of R times the vector of structural innovations. t = start; % Initialization of the time index. lik = zeros(smpl,1); % Initialization of the vector gathering the densities. LIK = Inf; % Default value of the log likelihood. oldP = Inf; l2pi = log(2*pi); notsteady = 1; oldK = Inf; K = NaN(mm,pp); while notsteady && t<=last s = t-start+1; d_index = data_index{t}; if Zflag z = Z(d_index,:); else z = Z(d_index); end oldP = P(:); for i=1:rows(z) if Zflag prediction_error = Y(d_index(i),t) - z(i,:)*a; Fi = z(i,:)*P*z(i,:)' + H(d_index(i),d_index(i)); else prediction_error = Y(d_index(i),t) - a(z(i)); Fi = P(z(i),z(i)) + H(d_index(i),d_index(i)); end if Fi>kalman_tol if Zflag Ki = P*z(i,:)'/Fi; else Ki = P(:,z(i))/Fi; end if t>no_more_missing_observations K(:,i) = Ki; end a = a + Ki*prediction_error; P = P - (Fi*Ki)*Ki'; lik(s) = lik(s) + log(Fi) + prediction_error*prediction_error/Fi + l2pi; end end a = T*a; P = T*P*transpose(T) + QQ; if t>=no_more_missing_observations notsteady = max(abs(K(:)-oldK))>riccati_tol; oldK = K(:); end t = t+1; end % Divide by two. lik(1:s) = .5*lik(1:s); % Call steady state univariate kalman filter if needed. if t=diffuse_periods lik = lik(1+(presample-diffuse_periods):end); end end LIK = sum(lik);