function [alphahat,etahat,epsilonhat,ahat,SteadyState,trend_coeff,aK,T,R,P,PK,decomp] = DsgeSmoother(xparam1,gend,Y,data_index,missing_value) % Estimation of the smoothed variables and innovations. % % INPUTS % o xparam1 [double] (p*1) vector of (estimated) parameters. % o gend [integer] scalar specifying the number of observations ==> varargin{1}. % o data [double] (T*n) matrix of data. % o data_index [cell] 1*smpl cell of column vectors of indices. % o missing_value 1 if missing values, 0 otherwise % % OUTPUTS % o alphahat [double] (m*T) matrix, smoothed endogenous variables. % o etahat [double] (r*T) matrix, smoothed structural shocks (r>n is the umber of shocks). % o epsilonhat [double] (n*T) matrix, smoothed measurement errors. % o ahat [double] (m*T) matrix, one step ahead filtered (endogenous) variables. % o SteadyState [double] (m*1) vector specifying the steady state level of each endogenous variable. % o trend_coeff [double] (n*1) vector, parameters specifying the slope of the trend associated to each observed variable. % o aK [double] (K,n,T+K) array, k (k=1,...,K) steps ahead filtered (endogenous) variables. % o T and R [double] Matrices defining the state equation (T is the (m*m) transition matrix). % P: 3D array of one-step ahead forecast error variance % matrices % PK: 4D array of k-step ahead forecast error variance % matrices (meaningless for periods 1:d) % % ALGORITHM % Diffuse Kalman filter (Durbin and Koopman) % % SPECIAL REQUIREMENTS % None % Copyright (C) 2006-2010 Dynare Team % % This file is part of Dynare. % % Dynare is free software: you can redistribute it and/or modify % it under the terms of the GNU General Public License as published by % the Free Software Foundation, either version 3 of the License, or % (at your option) any later version. % % Dynare is distributed in the hope that it will be useful, % but WITHOUT ANY WARRANTY; without even the implied warranty of % MERCHANTABILITY or FITNESS FOR A PARTICULAR PURPOSE. See the % GNU General Public License for more details. % % You should have received a copy of the GNU General Public License % along with Dynare. If not, see . global bayestopt_ M_ oo_ estim_params_ options_ alphahat = []; etahat = []; epsilonhat = []; ahat = []; SteadyState = []; trend_coeff = []; aK = []; T = []; R = []; P = []; PK = []; decomp = []; nobs = size(options_.varobs,1); smpl = size(Y,2); set_all_parameters(xparam1); %------------------------------------------------------------------------------ % 2. call model setup & reduction program %------------------------------------------------------------------------------ [T,R,SteadyState] = dynare_resolve(bayestopt_.smoother_var_list,... bayestopt_.smoother_restrict_columns,[]); bayestopt_.mf = bayestopt_.smoother_mf; if options_.noconstant constant = zeros(nobs,1); else if options_.loglinear == 1 constant = log(SteadyState(bayestopt_.mfys)); else constant = SteadyState(bayestopt_.mfys); end end trend_coeff = zeros(nobs,1); if bayestopt_.with_trend == 1 trend_coeff = zeros(nobs,1); t = options_.trend_coeffs; for i=1:length(t) if ~isempty(t{i}) trend_coeff(i) = evalin('base',t{i}); end end trend = constant*ones(1,gend)+trend_coeff*(1:gend); else trend = constant*ones(1,gend); end start = options_.presample+1; np = size(T,1); mf = bayestopt_.smoother_mf; % ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ % 3. Initial condition of the Kalman filter % ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ % % C'est ici qu'il faut déterminer Pinf et Pstar. Si le modèle est stationnaire, % alors il suffit de poser Pstar comme la solution de l'éuation de Lyapounov et % Pinf=[]. % Q = M_.Sigma_e; H = M_.H; kalman_algo = options_.kalman_algo; if options_.lik_init == 1 % Kalman filter if kalman_algo ~= 2 kalman_algo = 1; end Pstar = lyapunov_symm(T,R*Q*transpose(R),options_.qz_criterium,options_.lyapunov_complex_threshold); Pinf = []; elseif options_.lik_init == 2 % Old Diffuse Kalman filter if kalman_algo ~= 2 kalman_algo = 1; end Pstar = options_.Harvey_scale_factor*eye(np); Pinf = []; elseif options_.lik_init == 3 % Diffuse Kalman filter if kalman_algo ~= 4 kalman_algo = 3; end [QT,ST] = schur(T); e1 = abs(ordeig(ST)) > 2-options_.qz_criterium; [QT,ST] = ordschur(QT,ST,e1); k = find(abs(ordeig(ST)) > 2-options_.qz_criterium); nk = length(k); nk1 = nk+1; Pinf = zeros(np,np); Pinf(1:nk,1:nk) = eye(nk); Pstar = zeros(np,np); B = QT'*R*Q*R'*QT; for i=np:-1:nk+2 if ST(i,i-1) == 0 if i == np c = zeros(np-nk,1); else c = ST(nk1:i,:)*(Pstar(:,i+1:end)*ST(i,i+1:end)')+... ST(i,i)*ST(nk1:i,i+1:end)*Pstar(i+1:end,i); end q = eye(i-nk)-ST(nk1:i,nk1:i)*ST(i,i); Pstar(nk1:i,i) = q\(B(nk1:i,i)+c); Pstar(i,nk1:i-1) = Pstar(nk1:i-1,i)'; else if i == np c = zeros(np-nk,1); c1 = zeros(np-nk,1); else c = ST(nk1:i,:)*(Pstar(:,i+1:end)*ST(i,i+1:end)')+... ST(i,i)*ST(nk1:i,i+1:end)*Pstar(i+1:end,i)+... ST(i,i-1)*ST(nk1:i,i+1:end)*Pstar(i+1:end,i-1); c1 = ST(nk1:i,:)*(Pstar(:,i+1:end)*ST(i-1,i+1:end)')+... ST(i-1,i-1)*ST(nk1:i,i+1:end)*Pstar(i+1:end,i-1)+... ST(i-1,i)*ST(nk1:i,i+1:end)*Pstar(i+1:end,i); end q = [eye(i-nk)-ST(nk1:i,nk1:i)*ST(i,i) -ST(nk1:i,nk1:i)*ST(i,i-1);... -ST(nk1:i,nk1:i)*ST(i-1,i) eye(i-nk)-ST(nk1:i,nk1:i)*ST(i-1,i-1)]; z = q\[B(nk1:i,i)+c;B(nk1:i,i-1)+c1]; Pstar(nk1:i,i) = z(1:(i-nk)); Pstar(nk1:i,i-1) = z(i-nk+1:end); Pstar(i,nk1:i-1) = Pstar(nk1:i-1,i)'; Pstar(i-1,nk1:i-2) = Pstar(nk1:i-2,i-1)'; i = i - 1; end end if i == nk+2 c = ST(nk+1,:)*(Pstar(:,nk+2:end)*ST(nk1,nk+2:end)')+ST(nk1,nk1)*ST(nk1,nk+2:end)*Pstar(nk+2:end,nk1); Pstar(nk1,nk1)=(B(nk1,nk1)+c)/(1-ST(nk1,nk1)*ST(nk1,nk1)); end Z = QT(mf,:); R1 = QT'*R; [QQ,RR,EE] = qr(Z*ST(:,1:nk),0); k = find(abs(diag([RR; zeros(nk-size(Z,1),size(RR,2))])) < 1e-8); if length(k) > 0 k1 = EE(:,k); dd =ones(nk,1); dd(k1) = zeros(length(k1),1); Pinf(1:nk,1:nk) = diag(dd); end end kalman_tol = options_.kalman_tol; riccati_tol = options_.riccati_tol; data1 = Y-trend; % ----------------------------------------------------------------------------- % 4. Kalman smoother % ----------------------------------------------------------------------------- if any(any(H ~= 0)) % should be replaced by a flag if kalman_algo == 1 [alphahat,epsilonhat,etahat,ahat,P,aK,PK,decomp] = ... kalman_smoother(T,R,Q,H,Pstar,data1,start,mf,kalman_tol,riccati_tol); if all(alphahat(:)==0) kalman_algo = 2; if ~estim_params_.ncn [alphahat,epsilonhat,etahat,ahat,aK] = ... DiffuseKalmanSmootherH3(T,R,Q,H,Pinf,Pstar,Y,trend,nobs,np,smpl,mf); else [alphahat,epsilonhat,etahat,ahat,aK] = ... DiffuseKalmanSmootherH3corr(T,R,Q,H,Pinf,Pstar,Y,trend, ... nobs,np,smpl,mf); end end elseif kalman_algo == 2 if ~estim_params_.ncn [alphahat,epsilonhat,etahat,ahat,aK] = ... DiffuseKalmanSmootherH3(T,R,Q,H,Pinf,Pstar,Y,trend,nobs,np,smpl,mf); else [alphahat,epsilonhat,etahat,ahat,aK] = ... DiffuseKalmanSmootherH3corr(T,R,Q,H,Pinf,Pstar,Y,trend, ... nobs,np,smpl,mf); end elseif kalman_algo == 3 | kalman_algo == 4 data1 = Y - trend; if kalman_algo == 3 [alphahat,epsilonhat,etahat,ahat,P,aK,PK,d,decomp] = ... DiffuseKalmanSmootherH1_Z(ST,Z,R1,Q,H,Pinf,Pstar,data1,nobs,np,smpl); if all(alphahat(:)==0) kalman_algo = 4; if ~estim_params_.ncn [alphahat,epsilonhat,etahat,ahat,P,aK,PK,d,decomp] = ... DiffuseKalmanSmootherH3_Z(ST,Z,R1,Q,H,Pinf,Pstar,data1,nobs,np,smpl); else [alphahat,epsilonhat,etahat,ahat,P,aK,PK,d,decomp] = ... DiffuseKalmanSmootherH3corr_Z(ST,Z,R1,Q,H,Pinf,Pstar,data1, ... nobs,np,smpl); end end else if ~estim_params_.ncn [alphahat,epsilonhat,etahat,ahat,P,aK,PK,d,decomp] = ... DiffuseKalmanSmootherH3_Z(ST,Z,R1,Q,H,Pinf,Pstar,data1, ... nobs,np,smpl); else [alphahat,epsilonhat,etahat,ahat,P,aK,PK,d,decomp] = ... DiffuseKalmanSmootherH3corr_Z(ST,Z,R1,Q,H,Pinf,Pstar,data1, ... nobs,np,smpl); end end alphahat = QT*alphahat; ahat = QT*ahat; nk = options_.nk; for jnk=1:nk aK(jnk,:,:) = QT*squeeze(aK(jnk,:,:)); for i=1:size(PK,4) PK(jnk,:,:,i) = QT*squeeze(PK(jnk,:,:,i))*QT'; end for i=1:size(decomp,4) decomp(jnk,:,:,i) = QT*squeeze(decomp(jnk,:,:,i)); end end for i=1:size(P,4) P(:,:,i) = QT*squeeze(P(:,:,i))*QT'; end end else H = 0; if kalman_algo == 1 if missing_value [alphahat,etahat,ahat,aK] = missing_DiffuseKalmanSmoother1(T,R,Q, ... Pinf,Pstar,Y,trend,nobs,np,smpl,mf,data_index); else [alphahat,epsilonhat,etahat,ahat,P,aK,PK,decomp] = ... kalman_smoother(T,R,Q,H,Pstar,data1,start,mf,kalman_tol,riccati_tol); end if all(alphahat(:)==0) kalman_algo = 2; end end if kalman_algo == 2 if missing_value [alphahat,etahat,ahat,P,aK,PK,d,decomp] = missing_DiffuseKalmanSmoother3(T,R,Q, ... Pinf,Pstar,Y,trend,nobs,np,smpl,mf,data_index); else [alphahat,etahat,ahat,P,aK,PK,d,decomp] = DiffuseKalmanSmoother3(T,R,Q, ... Pinf,Pstar,Y,trend,nobs,np,smpl,mf); end end if kalman_algo == 3 data1 = Y - trend; if missing_value [alphahat,etahat,ahat,P,aK,PK,d,decomp] = missing_DiffuseKalmanSmoother1_Z(ST, ... Z,R1,Q,Pinf,Pstar,data1,nobs,np,smpl,data_index); else [alphahat,etahat,ahat,P,aK,PK,d,decomp] = DiffuseKalmanSmoother1_Z(ST, ... Z,R1,Q,Pinf,Pstar, ... data1,nobs,np,smpl); end if all(alphahat(:)==0) kalman_algo = 4; end end if kalman_algo == 4 data1 = Y - trend; if missing_value [alphahat,etahat,ahat,P,aK,PK,d,decomp] = missing_DiffuseKalmanSmoother3_Z(ST, ... Z,R1,Q,Pinf,Pstar,data1,nobs,np,smpl,data_index); else [alphahat,etahat,ahat,P,aK,PK,d,decomp] = DiffuseKalmanSmoother3_Z(ST, ... Z,R1,Q,Pinf,Pstar, ... data1,nobs,np,smpl); end end if kalman_algo == 3 | kalman_algo == 4 alphahat = QT*alphahat; ahat = QT*ahat; nk = options_.nk; % $$$ if M_.exo_nbr<2 % Fix the crash of Dynare when the estimated model has only one structural shock (problem with % $$$ % the squeeze function, that does not affect 2D arrays). % $$$ size_decomp = 0; % $$$ else % $$$ size_decomp = size(decomp,4); % $$$ end for jnk=1:nk aK(jnk,:,:) = QT*squeeze(aK(jnk,:,:)); for i=1:size(PK,4) PK(jnk,:,:,i) = QT*dynare_squeeze(PK(jnk,:,:,i))*QT'; end for i=1:size(decomp,4) decomp(jnk,:,:,i) = QT*dynare_squeeze(decomp(jnk,:,:,i)); end end for i=1:size(P,4) P(:,:,i) = QT*dynare_squeeze(P(:,:,i))*QT'; end end end