function dyn_ols(ds, varargin) % function dyn_ols(ds, varargin) % Run OLS on chosen model equations; unlike olseqs, allow for time t % endogenous variables on LHS % % INPUTS % ds [dseries] data % varargin [cellstr] names of equation tags to estimate. If empty, % estimate all equations % % OUTPUTS % none % % SPECIAL REQUIREMENTS % none % Copyright (C) 2017 Dynare Team % % This file is part of Dynare. % % Dynare is free software: you can redistribute it and/or modify % it under the terms of the GNU General Public License as published by % the Free Software Foundation, either version 3 of the License, or % (at your option) any later version. % % Dynare is distributed in the hope that it will be useful, % but WITHOUT ANY WARRANTY; without even the implied warranty of % MERCHANTABILITY or FITNESS FOR A PARTICULAR PURPOSE. See the % GNU General Public License for more details. % % You should have received a copy of the GNU General Public License % along with Dynare. If not, see . global M_ oo_ assert(nargin <= 2, 'Incorrect number of arguments.'); jsonfile = [M_.fname '_original.json']; if exist(jsonfile, 'file') ~= 2 error('Could not find %s! Please use the json option (See the Dynare invocation section in the reference manual).', jsonfile); end %% Get Equation(s) jsonmodel = loadjson(jsonfile); jsonmodel = jsonmodel.model; if nargin == 1 [lhs, rhs, lineno] = getEquationsByTags(jsonmodel); else [lhs, rhs, lineno] = getEquationsByTags(jsonmodel, 'name', varargin{:}); if isempty(lhs) disp('dyn_ols: Nothing to estimate') return end end %% Estimation M_endo_trim = cellstr(M_.endo_names); M_exo_trim = cellstr(M_.exo_names); M_endo_exo_names_trim = [M_endo_trim; M_exo_trim]; regex = strjoin(M_endo_exo_names_trim(:,1), '|'); mathops = '[\+\*\^\-\/\(\)]'; mathopsd = '[\+\*\^\-\/\(\)](\d+\*)?'; M_param_names_trim = cellfun(@strtrim, num2cell(M_.param_names,2), 'UniformOutput', false); for i = 1:length(lhs) %% Construct regression matrices rhs_ = strsplit(rhs{i}, {'+','-','*','/','^','log(','exp(','(',')'}); rhs_(cellfun(@(x) all(isstrprop(x, 'digit')), rhs_)) = []; vnames = setdiff(rhs_, cellstr(M_.param_names)); if ~isempty(regexp(rhs{i}, ... ['(' strjoin(vnames, '\\(\\d+\\)|') '\\(\\d+\\))'], ... 'once')) error(['dyn_ols: you cannot have leads in equation on line ' ... lineno{i} ': ' lhs{i} ' = ' rhs{i}]); end pnames = intersect(rhs_, cellstr(M_.param_names)); vnames = cell(1, length(pnames)); splitstrings = cell(length(pnames), 1); X = dseries(); for j = 1:length(pnames) createdvar = false; pregex = [... mathops pnames{j} mathops ... '|^' pnames{j} mathops ... '|' mathops pnames{j} '$' ... ]; [startidx, endidx] = regexp(rhs{i}, pregex, 'start', 'end'); assert(length(startidx) == 1); if rhs{i}(startidx) == '*' vnames{j} = getStrMoveLeft(rhs{i}(1:startidx-1)); splitstrings{j} = [vnames{j} '*' pnames{j}]; elseif rhs{i}(endidx) == '*' vnames{j} = getStrMoveRight(rhs{i}(endidx+1:end)); splitstrings{j} = [pnames{j} '*' vnames{j}]; if rhs{i}(startidx) == '-' vnames{j} = ['-' vnames{j}]; splitstrings{j} = ['-' splitstrings{j}]; end elseif rhs{i}(startidx) == '+' ... || rhs{i}(startidx) == '-' ... || rhs{i}(endidx) == '+' ... || rhs{i}(endidx) == '-' % intercept createdvar = true; if any(strcmp(M_endo_exo_names_trim, 'intercept')) [~, vnames{j}] = fileparts(tempname); vnames{j} = ['intercept_' vnames{j}]; assert(~any(strcmp(M_endo_exo_names_trim, vnames{j}))); else vnames{j} = 'intercept'; end splitstrings{j} = vnames{j}; else error('dyn_ols: Shouldn''t arrive here'); end if createdvar if rhs{i}(startidx) == '-' Xtmp = dseries(-ones(ds.nobs, 1), ds.firstdate, vnames{j}); else Xtmp = dseries(ones(ds.nobs, 1), ds.firstdate, vnames{j}); end else Xtmp = eval(regexprep(vnames{j}, regex, 'ds.$&')); Xtmp.rename_(vnames{j}); end X = [X Xtmp]; end lhssub = dseries(); rhs_ = strsplit(rhs{i}, [splitstrings; pnames]); for j = 1:length(rhs_) if isempty(rhs_{j}) continue end str = ''; for k = 1:length(M_endo_exo_names_trim) pregex = [... mathopsd M_endo_exo_names_trim{k} mathopsd ... '|^' M_endo_exo_names_trim{k} mathopsd ... '|' mathopsd M_endo_exo_names_trim{k} '$' ... ]; startidx = regexp(rhs_{j}, pregex); if ~isempty(startidx) if startidx > 1 && rhs_{j}(startidx) == '-' str = ['-' getStrMoveRight(rhs_{j}(startidx+1:end))]; else str = getStrMoveRight(rhs_{j}(startidx:end)); end break; end end if ~isempty(str) try lhssub = [lhssub eval(regexprep(str, regex, 'ds.$&'))]; lhssub{numel(lhssub)}.rename_(str); catch end end end Y = eval(regexprep(lhs{i}, regex, 'ds.$&')); for j = 1:lhssub.vobs Y = Y - lhssub{j}; end fp = max(Y.firstobservedperiod, X.firstobservedperiod); lp = min(Y.lastobservedperiod, X.lastobservedperiod); Y = Y(fp:lp); X = X(fp:lp).data; %% Estimation % From LeSage, James P. "Applied Econometrics using MATLAB" if nargin == 2 if iscell(varargin{1}) tagv = varargin{1}{i}; else tagv = varargin{1}; end else tagv = ['eq_line_no_' num2str(lineno{i})]; end [nobs, nvars] = size(X); oo_.ols.(tagv).dof = nobs - nvars; % Estimated Parameters [q, r] = qr(X, 0); xpxi = (r'*r)\eye(nvars); oo_.ols.(tagv).beta = r\(q'*Y.data); for j = 1:length(pnames) M_.params(strcmp(M_param_names_trim, pnames{j})) = oo_.ols.(tagv).beta(j); end % Yhat oo_.ols.(tagv).Yhat = dseries(X*oo_.ols.(tagv).beta, fp, [lhs{i} '_hat']); for j = 1:lhssub.vobs oo_.ols.(tagv).Yhat = oo_.ols.(tagv).Yhat + lhssub{j}(fp:lp); end % Residuals oo_.ols.(tagv).resid = Y - oo_.ols.(tagv).Yhat; %% Calculate statistics % Estimate for sigma^2 SS_res = oo_.ols.(tagv).resid.data'*oo_.ols.(tagv).resid.data; oo_.ols.(tagv).s2 = SS_res/oo_.ols.(tagv).dof; % R^2 ym = Y.data - mean(Y); SS_tot = ym'*ym; oo_.ols.(tagv).R2 = 1 - SS_res/SS_tot; % Adjusted R^2 oo_.ols.(tagv).adjR2 = oo_.ols.(tagv).R2 - (1 - oo_.ols.(tagv).R2)*nvars/(oo_.ols.(tagv).dof-1); % Durbin-Watson ediff = oo_.ols.(tagv).resid.data(2:nobs) - oo_.ols.(tagv).resid.data(1:nobs-1); oo_.ols.(tagv).dw = (ediff'*ediff)/SS_res; % Standard Error oo_.ols.(tagv).stderr = sqrt(oo_.ols.(tagv).s2*diag(xpxi)); % T-Stat oo_.ols.(tagv).tstat = oo_.ols.(tagv).beta./oo_.ols.(tagv).stderr; %% Print Output title = sprintf('OLS Estimation of equation `%s`', tagv); if nargin == 3 title = [title sprintf(' [%s = %s]', 'name', tagv)]; end preamble = {sprintf('Dependent Variable: %s', lhs{i}), ... sprintf('No. Independent Variables: %d', nvars), ... sprintf('Observations: %d', nobs)}; afterward = {sprintf('R^2: %f', oo_.ols.(tagv).R2), ... sprintf('R^2 Adjusted: %f', oo_.ols.(tagv).adjR2), ... sprintf('s^2: %f', oo_.ols.(tagv).s2), ... sprintf('Durbin-Watson: %f', oo_.ols.(tagv).dw)}; dyn_table(title, preamble, afterward, vnames, ... {'Coefficients','t-statistic','Std. Error'}, 4, ... [oo_.ols.(tagv).beta oo_.ols.(tagv).tstat oo_.ols.(tagv).stderr]); end end