function [LIK, lik] = DiffuseLikelihood3_Z(T,Z,R,Q,Pinf,Pstar,Y,start) % function [LIK, lik] = DiffuseLikelihood3_Z(T,Z,R,Q,Pinf,Pstar,Y,start) % Computes the diffuse likelihood without measurement error, in the case of % a singular var-cov matrix. % Univariate treatment of multivariate time series. % % INPUTS % T: mm*mm matrix % Z: pp*mm matrix % R: mm*rr matrix % Q: rr*rr matrix % Pinf: mm*mm diagonal matrix with with q ones and m-q zeros % Pstar: mm*mm variance-covariance matrix with stationary variables % Y: pp*1 vector % start: likelihood evaluation at 'start' % % OUTPUTS % LIK: likelihood % lik: density vector in each period % % SPECIAL REQUIREMENTS % See "Filtering and Smoothing of State Vector for Diffuse State Space % Models", S.J. Koopman and J. Durbin (2003, in Journal of Time Series % Analysis, vol. 24(1), pp. 85-98). % Copyright (C) 2004-2008 Dynare Team % % This file is part of Dynare. % % Dynare is free software: you can redistribute it and/or modify % it under the terms of the GNU General Public License as published by % the Free Software Foundation, either version 3 of the License, or % (at your option) any later version. % % Dynare is distributed in the hope that it will be useful, % but WITHOUT ANY WARRANTY; without even the implied warranty of % MERCHANTABILITY or FITNESS FOR A PARTICULAR PURPOSE. See the % GNU General Public License for more details. % % You should have received a copy of the GNU General Public License % along with Dynare. If not, see . % M. Ratto added lik in output [October 2005] % changes by M. Ratto [April 2005] % introduced new options options_.diffuse_d for termination of DKF % new icc counter for Finf steps in DKF % new termination for DKF % likelihood terms for Fstar must be cumulated in DKF also when Pinf is non % zero. % [4/5/2005] correctyed bug in the modified verson of Ratto for rank of Pinf % introduced a specific crit1 for the DKF termination global bayestopt_ options_ pp = size(Y,1); mm = size(T,1); smpl = size(Y,2); a = zeros(mm,1); QQ = R*Q*R'; t = 0; lik = zeros(smpl+1,1); lik(smpl+1) = smpl*pp*log(2*pi); %% the constant of minus two times the log-likelihood notsteady = 1; crit = options_.kalman_tol; crit1 = 1.e-6; newRank = rank(Pinf,crit1); icc=0; while newRank & t < smpl t = t+1; for i=1:pp Zi = Z(i,:); v(i) = Y(i,t)-Zi*a; Fstar = Zi*Pstar*Zi'; Finf = Zi*Pinf*Zi'; Kstar = Pstar*Zi'; if Finf > crit & newRank icc=icc+1; Kinf = Pinf*Zi'; a = a + Kinf*v(i)/Finf; Pstar = Pstar + Kinf*Kinf'*Fstar/(Finf*Finf) - ... (Kstar*Kinf'+Kinf*Kstar')/Finf; Pinf = Pinf - Kinf*Kinf'/Finf; lik(t) = lik(t) + log(Finf); if ~isempty(options_.diffuse_d), newRank = (icccrit)==0 & rank(Pinf,crit1)==0); options_.diffuse_d = icc; newRank=0; disp('WARNING: Change in OPTIONS_.DIFFUSE_D in univariate DKF') disp(['new OPTIONS_.DIFFUSE_D = ',int2str(icc)]) disp('You may have to reset the optimisation') end else newRank = (any(diag(Z*Pinf*Z')>crit) | rank(Pinf,crit1)); if newRank==0, P0= T*Pinf*T'; newRank = (any(diag(Z*P0*Z')>crit) | rank(P0,crit1)); % M. Ratto 11/10/2005 if newRank==0, options_.diffuse_d = icc; end end end, elseif Fstar > crit %% Note that : (1) rank(Pinf)=0 implies that Finf = 0, (2) outside this loop (when for some i and t the condition %% rank(Pinf)=0 is satisfied we have P = Pstar and F = Fstar and (3) Finf = 0 does not imply that %% rank(Pinf)=0. [stéphane,11-03-2004]. %if rank(Pinf,crit) == 0 % the likelihood terms should alwasy be cumulated, not only % when Pinf=0, otherwise the lik would depend on the ordering % of observed variables % presample options can be used to ignore initial time points lik(t) = lik(t) + log(Fstar) + v(i)*v(i)/Fstar; a = a + Kstar*v(i)/Fstar; Pstar = Pstar - Kstar*(Kstar'/Fstar); else %disp(['zero F term in DKF for observed ',int2str(i),' ',num2str(Fstar)]) end end if newRank, oldRank = rank(Pinf,crit1); else oldRank = 0; end a = T*a; Pstar = T*Pstar*T'+QQ; Pinf = T*Pinf*T'; if newRank, newRank = rank(Pinf,crit1); end if oldRank ~= newRank disp('DiffuseLiklihood3 :: T does influence the rank of Pinf!') end end if t == smpl error(['There isn''t enough information to estimate the initial' ... ' conditions of the nonstationary variables']); end while notsteady & t < smpl t = t+1; oldP = Pstar; for i=1:pp Zi = Z(i,:); v(i) = Y(i,t) - Zi*a; Fi = Zi*Pstar*Zi'; if Fi > crit Ki = Pstar*Zi'; a = a + Ki*v(i)/Fi; Pstar = Pstar - Ki*(Ki'/Fi); lik(t) = lik(t) + log(Fi) + v(i)*v(i)/Fi; else %disp(['zero F term for observed ',int2str(i),' ',num2str(Fi)]) end end a = T*a; Pstar = T*Pstar*T' + QQ; notsteady = ~(max(max(abs(Pstar-oldP))) crit Ki = Pstar*Zi'; a = a + Ki*v(i)/Fi; Pstar = Pstar - Ki*Ki'/Fi; lik(t) = lik(t) + log(Fi) + v(i)*v(i)/Fi; else %disp(['zero F term for observed ',int2str(i),' ',num2str(Fi)]) end end a = T*a; end LIK = .5*(sum(lik(start:end))-(start-1)*lik(smpl+1)/smpl);