var R Pie Y;

varobs Y Pie R;

svar_identification;
lower_cholesky;
end;

markov_switching(chain=1,number_of_regimes=2,duration=2.5);

svar(variances, chain=1);

set_dynare_seed(5);


ms_estimation(datafile=msdata
		,freq=4
		,initial_year=1959
		,final_year=2005
		,nlags=4
		,max_repeated_optimization_runs=1
		,max_number_of_stages=0
);
ms_simulation(mh_replic=1000);
ms_compute_mdd;
ms_compute_probabilities;
ms_irf;
ms_forecast;
ms_variance_decomposition;


ms_estimation(datafile=msdata, file_tag=tmv_rr_sr
		,freq=4
		,initial_year=1959
		,final_year=2005
		,nlags=4
		,max_repeated_optimization_runs=1
		,max_number_of_stages=0
);
ms_simulation(mh_replic=1000,file_tag=tmv_rr_sr);
ms_compute_mdd(file_tag=tmv_rr_sr);
ms_compute_probabilities(file_tag=tmv_rr_sr);
ms_irf(file_tag=tmv_rr_sr);
ms_forecast(file_tag=tmv_rr_sr);
ms_variance_decomposition(file_tag=tmv_rr_sr);


ms_estimation(datafile=msdata, file_tag=tmv_rr_sr, no_create_init
		,freq=4, output_file_tag=tmv_rr_tr
		,initial_year=1959
		,final_year=2005
		,nlags=4
		,max_repeated_optimization_runs=1
		,max_number_of_stages=0
);
ms_simulation(mh_replic=1000,file_tag=tmv_rr_tr);
ms_compute_mdd(file_tag=tmv_rr_tr);
ms_compute_probabilities(file_tag=tmv_rr_tr);
ms_irf(file_tag=tmv_rr_tr);
ms_forecast(file_tag=tmv_rr_tr);
ms_variance_decomposition(file_tag=tmv_rr_tr);