var y pi i; varexo e_y e_pi e_i; parameters a1 a2 a3 b1 b2 b3 c1 c2 c3; a1 = .2; a2 = .8; a3 = .05; b1 = .3; b2 = .7; b3 = .1; c1 = 0.9; c2 = 1.5; c3 = 0.5; model(bytecode); y = a1*y(-1) + a2*y(1) - a3*(i-pi(1)) + e_y ; pi = b1*pi(-1) + b2*pi(1) + b3*y + e_pi ; i = c1*i(-1) + c2*pi(1) + c3*y + e_i ; end; steady; check; shocks; var e_y = 0.002; var e_pi = 0.004; var e_i = 0.001; end; // Set the periods where some of the endogenous variables will be constrained. subsample = 2Y:100Y; // Load all the data generated by simulate.mod SimulatedData = dseries('truedata.mat'); // Set the constrained paths for the endogenous variables. constrainedpaths = SimulatedData{'y','pi','i'}(subsample); /* REMARKS ** ** In this example we constrain all the endogenous variables from 2Y to 100Y to match the same variables as given by simulated.mod. ** When we invert the model, we search the sequence of innovations that leads to these realizations of the endogenous variables. If ** the model is the same, the sequence of innovations returned by the inversion routine has to match the true sequence of shocks (used ** in simulated.mod and available for reference in SimulatedData dseries object). In this example, we invert the model with a slightly ** different model by removing the max operator in the Taylor rule. Because of this difference, the innovations returned by the inversion ** routine are not equal to the true innovations. We expect the difference on e_y and e_pi to be small, and the difference on e_i much larger ** when the economy hits the ZLB (in this situation the solver compensate the absence of the max operator in the Taylor equation with a greater ** value of e_i, compared to the true value, to keep the economy on the ZLB). ** */ // Set the instruments (innovations used to control the paths for the endogenous variables). exogenousvariables = dseries(NaN(99, 3), 2Y, {'e_y';'e_pi';'e_i'}); /* REMARKS ** ** We need as many instruments as contrained endogenous variables. There is no association of these innovations with the constrained ** endogenous variables. The instruments are identified by a NaN value for the exogenous variables. In this example all the exogenous ** variables are used as instruments. ** */ // Invert the model by calling the model_inversion routine. [endogenousvariables, exogenousvariables] = model_inversion(constrainedpaths, exogenousvariables, SimulatedData, M_, options_, oo_); /* REMARKS ** ** Output arguments endogenousvariables and exogenousvariables are dseries objects. ** ** In this example we constrain all the endogenous variables, so the variables in the first output argument matches exactly the ** constraints given in inputs. If we constrained only a subset of the variables we would have more variables in the first output ** argument than in the first input argument (constrainedpaths). Obviously the additional endogenous variables, ie the unconstrained ** endogenous variables, depend on the constraints given in the first input argument. The second output argument contains the ** exogenous variables consistent with the constraints defined in the first input argument. In this example, we have as many shocks for ** controlling the endogenous variables than shocks in the model. ** */ // Check that all the constraints are satisfied. if max(abs(endogenousvariables.y(subsample).data-SimulatedData.y(subsample).data))>1e-6 || max(abs(endogenousvariables.pi(subsample).data-SimulatedData.pi(subsample).data))>1e-6 || max(abs(endogenousvariables.i(subsample).data-SimulatedData.i(subsample).data))>1e-6 error('Constrained on endogenous variable paths are not all satisfied!') end // Plot the differences on e_y (shock in the Euler equation) figure(1) plot(exogenousvariables.e_y-SimulatedData.e_y) % Not zero because of the misspecification related to the ZLB title('e_y') // Plot the differences on e_pi (shock in the Phillips curve) figure(2) plot(exogenousvariables.e_pi-SimulatedData.e_pi) % Not zero because of the misspecification related to the ZLB title('e_pi') // Plot the differences on e_ik (shock in the Taylor rule) // The red bullets correpond the ZLB episodes. figure(3) plot(exogenousvariables.e_i-SimulatedData.e_i) % Not zero because of the misspecification related to the ZLB title('e_i') hold on id = find(endogenousvariables.i.data==-.05); plot(id, zeros(1,length(id)), 'or') hold off