// Declaration of the endogenous variables of the DSGE model. var a g mc mrs n winf pie r rw y; // Declaration of the exogenous variables of the DSGE model. varexo e_a e_g e_lam e_ms; // Declaration of the deep parameters parameters invsig delta gam rho gampie gamy rhoa rhog bet thetabig omega eps ; eps=6; thetabig=2; bet=0.99; invsig=2.5; gampie=1.5; gamy=0.125; gam=1; delta=0.36; omega=0.54; rhoa=0.5; rhog=0.5; rho=0.5; model(linear); y=y(+1)-(1/invsig)*(r-pie(+1)+g(+1)-g); y=a+(1-delta)*n; mc=rw+n-y; mrs=invsig*y+gam*n-g; r=rho*r(-1)+(1-rho)*(gampie*pie+gamy*y)+e_ms; rw=rw(-1)+winf-pie; a=rhoa*a(-1)+e_a; g=rhog*g(-1)+e_g; rw=mrs; // HYBRID PHILLIPS CURVED USED FOR THE SUMULATIONS: // pie = (omega/(1+omega*bet))*pie(-1)+(bet/(1+omega*bet))*pie(1)+(1-delta)* // (1-(1-1/thetabig)*bet)*(1-(1-1/thetabig))/((1-1/thetabig)*(1+delta*(eps-1)))/(1+omega*bet)*(mc+e_lam); // FORWARD LOOKING PHILLIPS CURVE: pie=bet*pie(+1)+(1-delta)*(1-(1-1/thetabig)*bet)*(1-(1-1/thetabig))/((1-1/thetabig)*(1+delta*(eps-1)))*(mc+e_lam); end; /* ** Declaration of the prior beliefs about the deep parameters AND the weight of the DSGE prior. ** Note that dsge_prior_weight is not declared as a parameter at the top of the mod file. */ estimated_params; stderr e_a, uniform_pdf,,,0,2; stderr e_g, uniform_pdf,,,0,2; stderr e_ms, uniform_pdf,,,0,2; stderr e_lam, uniform_pdf,,,0,2; invsig, gamma_pdf, 2.5, 1.76; gam, normal_pdf, 1, 0.5; rho, uniform_pdf,,,0,1; gampie, normal_pdf, 1.5, 0.25; gamy, gamma_pdf, 0.125, 0.075; rhoa, uniform_pdf,,,0,1; rhog, uniform_pdf,,,0,1; thetabig, gamma_pdf, 3, 1.42, 1, ; // Parameter for the hybrid Phillips curve // omega, uniform_pdf,,,0,1; dsge_prior_weight, uniform_pdf,,,0,1.9; end; /* Declaration of the observed endogenous variables. Note that they are the variables of the VAR (with 4 lags by default) and that we must ** have as many observed variables as exogenous variables. */ varobs pie r rw y; /* REMARK 1. ** The dsge_var option triggers the estimation of a DSGE-VAR model instead of the plain DSGE model. The weight of the DSGE prior, dsge_prior_weight, ** is estimated. The prior of this parameter is defined in the estimated_params block. ** ** REMARK 2. ** The option bayesian_irf triggers the computation of the DSGE-VAR and DSGE posterior distribution of the IRFs. ** The Dashed lines are the first, fifth (ie the median) and ninth posterior deciles of the DSGE-VAR's IRFs, the bold dark curve is the ** posterior median of the DSGE's IRfs and the shaded surface covers the space between the first and ninth posterior deciles of the DSGE's IRFs. */ estimation(datafile=datarabanal_hybrid,first_obs=50,mh_nblocks = 1,nobs=90,dsge_var,mode_compute=4,optim=('NumgradAlgorithm',3),mh_replic=2000,bayesian_irf);