function [llik,parameters] = evaluate_likelihood(parameters) % Evaluate the logged likelihood at parameters. % % INPUTS % o parameters a string ('posterior mode','posterior mean','posterior median','prior mode','prior mean') or a vector of values for % the (estimated) parameters of the model. % % % OUTPUTS % o ldens [double] value of the sample logged density at parameters. % o parameters [double] vector of values for the estimated parameters. % % SPECIAL REQUIREMENTS % None % % REMARKS % [1] This function cannot evaluate the likelihood of a dsge-var model... % [2] This function use persistent variables for the dataset and the description of the missing observations. Consequently, if this function % is called more than once (by changing the value of parameters) the sample *must not* change. % Copyright (C) 2009 Dynare Team % % This file is part of Dynare. % % Dynare is free software: you can redistribute it and/or modify % it under the terms of the GNU General Public License as published by % the Free Software Foundation, either version 3 of the License, or % (at your option) any later version. % % Dynare is distributed in the hope that it will be useful, % but WITHOUT ANY WARRANTY; without even the implied warranty of % MERCHANTABILITY or FITNESS FOR A PARTICULAR PURPOSE. See the % GNU General Public License for more details. % % You should have received a copy of the GNU General Public License % along with Dynare. If not, see . global options_ M_ bayestopt_ oo_ persistent load_data persistent gend data data_index number_of_observations no_more_missing_observations if nargin==0 parameters = 'posterior mode'; end if ischar(parameters) switch parameters case 'posterior mode' parameters = get_posterior_parameters('mode'); case 'posterior mean' parameters = get_posterior_parameters('mean'); case 'posterior median' parameters = get_posterior_parameters('median'); case 'prior mode' parameters = bayestopt_.p5(:); case 'prior mean' parameters = bayestopt_.p1; otherwise disp('eval_likelihood:: If the input argument is a string, then it has to be equal to:') disp(' ''posterior mode'', ') disp(' ''posterior mean'', ') disp(' ''posterior median'', ') disp(' ''prior mode'' or') disp(' ''prior mean''.') error end end if isempty(load_data) % Get the data. n_varobs = size(options_.varobs,1); rawdata = read_variables(options_.datafile,options_.varobs,[],options_.xls_sheet,options_.xls_range); options_ = set_default_option(options_,'nobs',size(rawdata,1)-options_.first_obs+1); gend = options_.nobs; rawdata = rawdata(options_.first_obs:options_.first_obs+gend-1,:); % Transform the data. if options_.loglinear if ~options_.logdata rawdata = log(rawdata); end end % Test if the data set is real. if ~isreal(rawdata) error('There are complex values in the data! Probably a wrong transformation') end % Detrend the data. options_.missing_data = any(any(isnan(rawdata))); if options_.prefilter == 1 if options_.missing_data bayestopt_.mean_varobs = zeros(n_varobs,1); for variable=1:n_varobs rdx = find(~isnan(rawdata(:,variable))); m = mean(rawdata(rdx,variable)); rawdata(rdx,variable) = rawdata(rdx,variable)-m; bayestopt_.mean_varobs(variable) = m; end else bayestopt_.mean_varobs = mean(rawdata,1)'; rawdata = rawdata-repmat(bayestopt_.mean_varobs',gend,1); end end data = transpose(rawdata); % Handle the missing observations. [data_index,number_of_observations,no_more_missing_observations] = describe_missing_data(data,gend,n_varobs); missing_value = ~(number_of_observations == gend*n_varobs); % Determine if a constant is needed. if options_.steadystate_flag% if the *_steadystate.m file is provided. [ys,tchek] = feval([M_.fname '_steadystate'],... [zeros(M_.exo_nbr,1);... oo_.exo_det_steady_state]); if size(ys,1) < M_.endo_nbr if length(M_.aux_vars) > 0 ys = add_auxiliary_variables_to_steadystate(ys,M_.aux_vars,... M_.fname,... zeros(M_.exo_nbr,1),... oo_.exo_det_steady_state,... M_.params); else error([M_.fname '_steadystate.m doesn''t match the model']); end end oo_.steady_state = ys; else% if the steady state file is not provided. [dd,info] = resol(oo_.steady_state,0); oo_.steady_state = dd.ys; clear('dd'); end if all(abs(oo_.steady_state(bayestopt_.mfys))<1e-9) options_.noconstant = 1; else options_.noconstant = 0; end load_data = 1; end pshape_original = bayestopt_.pshape; bayestopt_.pshape = Inf(size(bayestopt_.pshape)); clear('priordens')% llik = -DsgeLikelihood(parameters,gend,data,data_index,number_of_observations,no_more_missing_observations); bayestopt_.pshape = pshape_original;