function [LIK, lik] = DiffuseLikelihoodH3(T,R,Q,H,Pinf,Pstar,Y,trend,start) % function [LIK, lik] = DiffuseLikelihoodH3(T,R,Q,H,Pinf,Pstar,Y,trend,start) % Computes the diffuse likelihood with measurement error, in the case of % a singular var-cov matrix. % Univariate treatment of multivariate time series. % % INPUTS % T: mm*mm matrix % R: mm*rr matrix % Q: rr*rr matrix % H: pp*pp matrix % Pinf: mm*mm diagonal matrix with with q ones and m-q zeros % Pstar: mm*mm variance-covariance matrix with stationary variables % Y: pp*1 vector % trend % start: likelihood evaluation at 'start' % % OUTPUTS % LIK: likelihood % lik: density vector in each period % % SPECIAL REQUIREMENTS % See "Filtering and Smoothing of State Vector for Diffuse State Space % Models", S.J. Koopman and J. Durbin (2003, in Journal of Time Series % Analysis, vol. 24(1), pp. 85-98). % Copyright (C) 2005-2008 Dynare Team % % This file is part of Dynare. % % Dynare is free software: you can redistribute it and/or modify % it under the terms of the GNU General Public License as published by % the Free Software Foundation, either version 3 of the License, or % (at your option) any later version. % % Dynare is distributed in the hope that it will be useful, % but WITHOUT ANY WARRANTY; without even the implied warranty of % MERCHANTABILITY or FITNESS FOR A PARTICULAR PURPOSE. See the % GNU General Public License for more details. % % You should have received a copy of the GNU General Public License % along with Dynare. If not, see . % M. Ratto added lik in output [October 2005] % changes by M. Ratto % introduced new global variable id_ for termination of DKF % introduced a persistent fmax, in order to keep track the max order of % magnitude of the 'zero' values in Pinf at DKF termination % new icc counter for Finf steps in DKF % new termination for DKF % likelihood terms for Fstar must be cumulated in DKF also when Pinf is non % zero. this bug is fixed. global bayestopt_ options_ mf = bayestopt_.mf; pp = size(Y,1); mm = size(T,1); smpl = size(Y,2); a = zeros(mm,1); QQ = R*Q*transpose(R); t = 0; lik = zeros(smpl,1); notsteady = 1; crit = options_.kalman_tol; crit1 = 1.e-6; newRank = rank(Pinf,crit1); icc = 0; while newRank & t < smpl %% Matrix Finf is assumed to be zero t = t+1; for i=1:pp v(i) = Y(i,t)-a(mf(i))-trend(i,t); Fstar = Pstar(mf(i),mf(i))+H(i,i); Finf = Pinf(mf(i),mf(i)); Kstar = Pstar(:,mf(i)); if Finf > crit & newRank icc = icc + 1; Kinf = Pinf(:,mf(i)); a = a + Kinf*v(i)/Finf; Pstar = Pstar + Kinf*transpose(Kinf)*Fstar/(Finf*Finf) - ... (Kstar*transpose(Kinf)+Kinf*transpose(Kstar))/Finf; Pinf = Pinf - Kinf*transpose(Kinf)/Finf; lik(t) = lik(t) + log(Finf); % start new termination criterion for DKF if ~isempty(options_.diffuse_d), newRank = (icccrit)==0; % M. Ratto this line is BUGGY if newRank & (any(diag(Pinf(mf,mf))>crit)==0 & rank(Pinf,crit1)==0); options_.diffuse_d = icc; newRank=0; disp('WARNING: Change in OPTIONS_.DIFFUSE_D in univariate DKF') disp(['new OPTIONS_.DIFFUSE_D = ',int2str(icc)]) disp('You may have to reset the optimisation') end else %newRank = any(diag(Pinf(mf,mf))>crit); % M. Ratto this line is BUGGY newRank = (any(diag(Pinf(mf,mf))>crit) | rank(Pinf,crit1)); if newRank==0, P0= T*Pinf*transpose(T); %newRank = any(diag(P0(mf,mf))>crit); % M. Ratto this line is BUGGY newRank = (any(diag(P0(mf,mf))>crit) | rank(P0,crit1)); % M. Ratto 10 Oct 2005 if newRank==0, options_.diffuse_d = icc; end end end, % end new termination and checks for DKF and fmax elseif Finf > crit %% Note that : (1) rank(Pinf)=0 implies that Finf = 0, (2) outside this loop (when for some i and t the condition %% rank(Pinf)=0 is satisfied we have P = Pstar and F = Fstar and (3) Finf = 0 does not imply that %% rank(Pinf)=0. [stéphane,11-03-2004]. %if rank(Pinf) == 0 % the likelihood terms should alwasy be cumulated, not only % when Pinf=0, otherwise the lik would depend on the ordering % of observed variables lik(t) = lik(t) + log(Fstar) + v(i)*v(i)/Fstar; %end a = a + Kstar*v(i)/Fstar; Pstar = Pstar - Kstar*transpose(Kstar)/Fstar; else % disp(['zero F term in DKF for observed ',int2str(i),' ',num2str(Fi)]) end end if newRank oldRank = rank(Pinf,crit1); else oldRank = 0; end a = T*a; Pstar = T*Pstar*transpose(T)+QQ; Pinf = T*Pinf*transpose(T); if newRank newRank = rank(Pinf,crit1); end if oldRank ~= newRank disp('DiffuseLiklihoodH3 :: T does influence the rank of Pinf!') end end if t == smpl error(['There isn''t enough information to estimate the initial' ... ' conditions of the nonstationary variables']); end while notsteady & t < smpl t = t+1; for i=1:pp v(i) = Y(i,t) - a(mf(i)) - trend(i,t); Fi = Pstar(mf(i),mf(i))+H(i,i); if Fi > crit Ki = Pstar(:,mf(i)); a = a + Ki*v(i)/Fi; Pstar = Pstar - Ki*transpose(Ki)/Fi; lik(t) = lik(t) + log(Fi) + v(i)*v(i)/Fi; end end oldP = Pstar; a = T*a; Pstar = T*Pstar*transpose(T) + QQ; notsteady = ~(max(max(abs(Pstar-oldP))) crit Ki = Pstar(:,mf(i)); a = a + Ki*v(i)/Fi; Pstar = Pstar - Ki*transpose(Ki)/Fi; lik(t) = lik(t) + log(Fi) + v(i)*v(i)/Fi; end end a = T*a; end % adding log-likelihhod constants lik = (lik + pp*log(2*pi))/2; LIK = sum(lik(start:end)); % Minus the log-likelihood.