function [ ix2, ilogpo2, ModelName, MhDirectoryName, fblck, fline, npar, nblck, nruns, NewFile, MAX_nruns, d ] = ... metropolis_hastings_initialization(TargetFun, xparam1, vv, mh_bounds,dataset_,options_,M_,estim_params_,bayestopt_,oo_) %function [ ix2, ilogpo2, ModelName, MhDirectoryName, fblck, fline, npar, nblck, nruns, NewFile, MAX_nruns, d ] = % metropolis_hastings_initialization(TargetFun, xparam1, vv, mh_bounds, dataset_,options_,M_,estim_params_,bayestopt_,oo_) % Metropolis-Hastings initialization. % % INPUTS % o TargetFun [char] string specifying the name of the objective % function (posterior kernel). % o xparam1 [double] (p*1) vector of parameters to be estimated (initial values). % o vv [double] (p*p) matrix, posterior covariance matrix (at the mode). % o mh_bounds [double] (p*2) matrix defining lower and upper bounds for the parameters. % o dataset_ data structure % o options_ options structure % o M_ model structure % o estim_params_ estimated parameters structure % o bayestopt_ estimation options structure % o oo_ outputs structure % % OUTPUTS % None % % SPECIAL REQUIREMENTS % None. % Copyright (C) 2006-2013 Dynare Team % % This file is part of Dynare. % % Dynare is free software: you can redistribute it and/or modify % it under the terms of the GNU General Public License as published by % the Free Software Foundation, either version 3 of the License, or % (at your option) any later version. % % Dynare is distributed in the hope that it will be useful, % but WITHOUT ANY WARRANTY; without even the implied warranty of % MERCHANTABILITY or FITNESS FOR A PARTICULAR PURPOSE. See the % GNU General Public License for more details. % % You should have received a copy of the GNU General Public License % along with Dynare. If not, see . ix2 = []; ilogpo2 = []; ModelName = []; MhDirectoryName = []; fblck = []; fline = []; npar = []; nblck = []; nruns = []; NewFile = []; MAX_nruns = []; d = []; ModelName = M_.fname; if ~isempty(M_.bvar) ModelName = [M_.fname '_bvar']; end MhDirectoryName = CheckPath('metropolis',M_.dname); nblck = options_.mh_nblck; nruns = ones(nblck,1)*options_.mh_replic; npar = length(xparam1); MAX_nruns = ceil(options_.MaxNumberOfBytes/(npar+2)/8); d = chol(vv); if ~options_.load_mh_file && ~options_.mh_recover %% Here we start a new metropolis-hastings, previous draws are not %% considered. if nblck > 1 disp('MH: Multiple chains mode.') else disp('MH: One Chain mode.') end %% Delete old mh files... files = dir([ MhDirectoryName '/' ModelName '_mh*_blck*.mat']); if length(files) delete([ MhDirectoryName '/' ModelName '_mh*_blck*.mat']); disp('MH: Old _mh files successfully erased!') end file = dir([ MhDirectoryName '/metropolis.log']); if length(file) delete([ MhDirectoryName '/metropolis.log']); disp('MH: Old metropolis.log file successfully erased!') disp('MH: Creation of a new metropolis.log file.') end fidlog = fopen([MhDirectoryName '/metropolis.log'],'w'); fprintf(fidlog,'%% MH log file (Dynare).\n'); fprintf(fidlog,['%% ' datestr(now,0) '.\n']); fprintf(fidlog,' \n\n'); fprintf(fidlog,'%% Session 1.\n'); fprintf(fidlog,' \n'); fprintf(fidlog,[' Number of blocks...............: ' int2str(nblck) '\n']); fprintf(fidlog,[' Number of simulations per block: ' int2str(nruns(1)) '\n']); fprintf(fidlog,' \n'); %% Initial values... if nblck > 1% Case 1: multiple chains fprintf(fidlog,[' Initial values of the parameters:\n']); disp('MH: Searching for initial values...') ix2 = zeros(nblck,npar); ilogpo2 = zeros(nblck,1); for j=1:nblck validate = 0; init_iter = 0; trial = 1; while validate == 0 && trial <= 10 candidate = rand_multivariate_normal( transpose(xparam1), d * options_.mh_init_scale, npar); if all(candidate(:) > mh_bounds(:,1)) && all(candidate(:) < mh_bounds(:,2)) ix2(j,:) = candidate; ilogpo2(j) = - feval(TargetFun,ix2(j,:)',dataset_,options_,M_,estim_params_,bayestopt_,oo_); if ~isfinite(ilogpo2(j)) % if returned log-density is % Inf or Nan (penalized value) validate = 0; else fprintf(fidlog,[' Blck ' int2str(j) ':\n']); for i=1:length(ix2(1,:)) fprintf(fidlog,[' params:' int2str(i) ': ' num2str(ix2(j,i)) '\n']); end fprintf(fidlog,[' logpo2: ' num2str(ilogpo2(j)) '\n']); j = j+1; validate = 1; end end init_iter = init_iter + 1; if init_iter > 100 && validate == 0 disp(['MH: I couldn''t get a valid initial value in 100 trials.']) if options_.nointeractive disp(['MH: I reduce mh_init_scale by ten percent:']) options_.mh_init_scale = .9*options_.mh_init_scale; disp(sprintf('MH: Parameter mh_init_scale is now equal to %f.',options_.mh_init_scale)) else disp(['MH: You should Reduce mh_init_scale...']) disp(sprintf('MH: Parameter mh_init_scale is equal to %f.',options_.mh_init_scale)) options_.mh_init_scale = input('MH: Enter a new value... '); end trial = trial+1; end end if trial > 10 && ~validate disp(['MH: I''m unable to find a starting value for block ' int2str(j)]) return end end fprintf(fidlog,' \n'); disp('MH: Initial values found!') skipline() else% Case 2: one chain (we start from the posterior mode) fprintf(fidlog,[' Initial values of the parameters:\n']); candidate = transpose(xparam1(:));% if all(candidate(:) > mh_bounds(:,1)) && all(candidate(:) < mh_bounds(:,2)) ix2 = candidate; ilogpo2 = - feval(TargetFun,ix2',dataset_,options_,M_,estim_params_,bayestopt_,oo_); disp('MH: Initialization at the posterior mode.') skipline() fprintf(fidlog,[' Blck ' int2str(1) 'params:\n']); for i=1:length(ix2(1,:)) fprintf(fidlog,[' ' int2str(i) ':' num2str(ix2(1,i)) '\n']); end fprintf(fidlog,[' Blck ' int2str(1) 'logpo2:' num2str(ilogpo2) '\n']); else disp('MH: Initialization failed...') disp('MH: The posterior mode lies outside the prior bounds.') return end fprintf(fidlog,' \n'); end fprintf(fidlog,' \n'); fblck = 1; fline = ones(nblck,1); NewFile = ones(nblck,1); %% %% Creation of the mh-history file: %% file = dir([MhDirectoryName '/' ModelName '_mh_history.mat']); if length(file) delete([ MhDirectoryName '/' ModelName '_mh_history.mat']); disp('MH: Old mh_history file successfully erased!') end AnticipatedNumberOfFiles = ceil(nruns(1)/MAX_nruns); AnticipatedNumberOfLinesInTheLastFile = nruns(1) - (AnticipatedNumberOfFiles-1)*MAX_nruns; record.Nblck = nblck; record.MhDraws = zeros(1,3); record.MhDraws(1,1) = nruns(1); record.MhDraws(1,2) = AnticipatedNumberOfFiles; record.MhDraws(1,3) = AnticipatedNumberOfLinesInTheLastFile; record.AcceptationRates = zeros(1,nblck); % separate initializaton for each chain JSUM = 0; for j=1:nblck, % we set a different seed for the random generator for each block % then we record the corresponding random generator state (vector) set_dynare_seed(options_.DynareRandomStreams.seed+j); % record.Seeds keeps a vector of the random generator state and % not the scalar seed despite its name [record.Seeds(j).Unifor,record.Seeds(j).Normal] = get_dynare_random_generator_state(); end record.InitialParameters = ix2; record.InitialLogLiK = ilogpo2; record.LastParameters = zeros(nblck,npar); record.LastLogPost = zeros(nblck,1); record.LastFileNumber = AnticipatedNumberOfFiles ; record.LastLineNumber = AnticipatedNumberOfLinesInTheLastFile; save([MhDirectoryName '/' ModelName '_mh_history.mat'],'record'); fprintf(fidlog,[' CREATION OF THE MH HISTORY FILE!\n\n']); fprintf(fidlog,[' Expected number of files per block.......: ' int2str(AnticipatedNumberOfFiles) '.\n']); fprintf(fidlog,[' Expected number of lines in the last file: ' ... int2str(AnticipatedNumberOfLinesInTheLastFile) '.\n']); fprintf(fidlog,['\n']); for j = 1:nblck, fprintf(fidlog,[' Initial seed (randn) for chain number ',int2str(j),':\n']); for i=1:length(record.Seeds(j).Normal) fprintf(fidlog,[' ' num2str(record.Seeds(j).Normal(i)') '\n']); end fprintf(fidlog,[' Initial seed (rand) for chain number ',int2str(j),':\n']); for i=1:length(record.Seeds(j).Unifor) fprintf(fidlog,[' ' num2str(record.Seeds(j).Unifor(i)') '\n']); end end, fprintf(fidlog,' \n'); fclose(fidlog); elseif options_.load_mh_file && ~options_.mh_recover %% Here we consider previous mh files (previous mh did not crash). disp('MH: I''m loading past metropolis-hastings simulations...') file = dir([ MhDirectoryName '/' ModelName '_mh_history.mat' ]); files = dir([ MhDirectoryName filesep ModelName '_mh*.mat']); if ~length(files) error('MH:: FAILURE! there is no MH file to load here!') end if ~length(file) error('MH:: FAILURE! there is no MH-history file!') else load([ MhDirectoryName '/' ModelName '_mh_history.mat']) end fidlog = fopen([MhDirectoryName '/metropolis.log'],'a'); fprintf(fidlog,'\n'); fprintf(fidlog,['%% Session ' int2str(length(record.MhDraws(:,1))+1) '.\n']); fprintf(fidlog,' \n'); fprintf(fidlog,[' Number of blocks...............: ' int2str(nblck) '\n']); fprintf(fidlog,[' Number of simulations per block: ' int2str(nruns(1)) '\n']); fprintf(fidlog,' \n'); past_number_of_blocks = record.Nblck; if past_number_of_blocks ~= nblck disp('MH:: The specified number of blocks doesn''t match with the previous number of blocks!') disp(['MH:: You declared ' int2str(nblck) ' blocks, but the previous number of blocks was ' ... int2str(past_number_of_blocks) '.']) disp(['MH:: I will run the Metropolis-Hastings with ' int2str(past_number_of_blocks) ' blocks.' ]) nblck = past_number_of_blocks; options_.mh_nblck = nblck; end % I read the last line of the last mh-file for initialization % of the new metropolis-hastings simulations: LastFileNumber = record.LastFileNumber; LastLineNumber = record.LastLineNumber; if LastLineNumber < MAX_nruns NewFile = ones(nblck,1)*LastFileNumber; else NewFile = ones(nblck,1)*(LastFileNumber+1); end ilogpo2 = record.LastLogPost; ix2 = record.LastParameters; fblck = 1; fline = ones(nblck,1)*(LastLineNumber+1); NumberOfPreviousSimulations = sum(record.MhDraws(:,1),1); record.MhDraws = [record.MhDraws;zeros(1,3)]; NumberOfDrawsWrittenInThePastLastFile = MAX_nruns - LastLineNumber; NumberOfDrawsToBeSaved = nruns(1) - NumberOfDrawsWrittenInThePastLastFile; AnticipatedNumberOfFiles = ceil(NumberOfDrawsToBeSaved/MAX_nruns); AnticipatedNumberOfLinesInTheLastFile = NumberOfDrawsToBeSaved - (AnticipatedNumberOfFiles-1)*MAX_nruns; record.LastFileNumber = LastFileNumber + AnticipatedNumberOfFiles; record.LastLineNumber = AnticipatedNumberOfLinesInTheLastFile; record.MhDraws(end,1) = nruns(1); record.MhDraws(end,2) = AnticipatedNumberOfFiles; record.MhDraws(end,3) = AnticipatedNumberOfLinesInTheLastFile; save([MhDirectoryName '/' ModelName '_mh_history.mat'],'record'); disp(['MH: ... It''s done. I''ve loaded ' int2str(NumberOfPreviousSimulations) ' simulations.']) skipline() fclose(fidlog); elseif options_.mh_recover %% The previous metropolis-hastings crashed before the end! I try to %% recover the saved draws... disp('MH: Recover mode!') skipline() file = dir([MhDirectoryName '/' ModelName '_mh_history.mat']); if ~length(file) error('MH:: FAILURE! there is no MH-history file!') else load([ MhDirectoryName '/' ModelName '_mh_history.mat']) end nblck = record.Nblck;% Number of "parallel" mcmc chains. options_.mh_nblck = nblck; if size(record.MhDraws,1) == 1 OldMh = 0;% The crashed metropolis was the first session. else OldMh = 1;% The crashed metropolis wasn't the first session. end %% Default initialization: if OldMh ilogpo2 = record.LastLogPost; ix2 = record.LastParameters; else ilogpo2 = record.InitialLogLiK; ix2 = record.InitialParameters; end %% Set NewFile, a nblck*1 vector of integers, and fline (first line), a nblck*1 vector of integers. if OldMh LastLineNumberInThePreviousMh = record.MhDraws(end-1,3);% Number of lines in the last mh files of the previous session. LastFileNumberInThePreviousMh = sum(record.MhDraws(1:end-1,2),1);% Number of mh files in the the previous sessions. if LastLineNumberInThePreviousMh < MAX_nruns% Test if the last mh files of the previous session are not complete (yes) NewFile = ones(nblck,1)*LastFileNumberInThePreviousMh; fline = ones(nblck,1)*(LastLineNumberInThePreviousMh+1); else% The last mh files of the previous session are complete. NewFile = ones(nblck,1)*(LastFileNumberInThePreviousMh+1); fline = ones(nblck,1); end else LastLineNumberInThePreviousMh = 0; LastFileNumberInThePreviousMh = 0; NewFile = ones(nblck,1); fline = ones(nblck,1); end %% Set fblck (First block), an integer targeting the crashed mcmc chain. fblck = 1; %% How many mh files should we have ? ExpectedNumberOfMhFilesPerBlock = sum(record.MhDraws(:,2),1); ExpectedNumberOfMhFiles = ExpectedNumberOfMhFilesPerBlock*nblck; %% I count the total number of saved mh files... AllMhFiles = dir([MhDirectoryName '/' ModelName '_mh*_blck*.mat']); TotalNumberOfMhFiles = length(AllMhFiles); %% And I quit if I can't find a crashed mcmc chain. if (TotalNumberOfMhFiles==ExpectedNumberOfMhFiles) disp('MH: It appears that you don''t need to use the mh_recover option!') disp(' You have to edit the mod file and remove the mh_recover') disp(' in the estimation command') error end %% I count the number of saved mh files per block. NumberOfMhFilesPerBlock = zeros(nblck,1); for b = 1:nblck BlckMhFiles = dir([ MhDirectoryName '/' ModelName '_mh*_blck' int2str(b) '.mat']); NumberOfMhFilesPerBlock(b) = length(BlckMhFiles); end %% Is there a chain with less mh files than expected ? while fblck <= nblck if NumberOfMhFilesPerBlock(fblck) < ExpectedNumberOfMhFilesPerBlock disp(['MH: Chain ' int2str(fblck) ' is not complete!']) break % The mh_recover session will start from chain fblck. else disp(['MH: Chain ' int2str(fblck) ' is complete!']) end fblck = fblck+1; end %% How many mh-files are saved in this block? NumberOfSavedMhFilesInTheCrashedBlck = NumberOfMhFilesPerBlock(fblck); %% Correct the number of saved mh files if the crashed metropolis was not the first session (so %% that NumberOfSavedMhFilesInTheCrashedBlck is the number of saved mh files in the crashed chain %% of the current session). if OldMh NumberOfSavedMhFilesInTheCrashedBlck = NumberOfSavedMhFilesInTheCrashedBlck - LastFileNumberInThePreviousMh; end NumberOfSavedMhFiles = NumberOfSavedMhFilesInTheCrashedBlck+LastFileNumberInThePreviousMh; %% Correct initial conditions. if NumberOfSavedMhFiles load([MhDirectoryName '/' ModelName '_mh' int2str(NumberOfSavedMhFiles) '_blck' int2str(fblck) '.mat']); ilogpo2(fblck) = logpo2(end); ix2(fblck,:) = x2(end,:); end end