function [LIK, lik] = DiffuseLikelihoodH1(T,R,Q,H,Pinf,Pstar,Y,trend,start) % M. Ratto added lik in output % stephane.adjemian@cepremap.cnrs.fr [07-19-2004] % % See "Filtering and Smoothing of State Vector for Diffuse State Space % Models", S.J. Koopman and J. Durbin (2003, in Journal of Time Series % Analysis, vol. 24(1), pp. 85-98). % % THE PROBLEM: % % y_t = Z_t * \alpha_t + \varepsilon_t % \alpha_{t+1} = T_t * \alpha_t + R_t * \eta_t % % with: % % \alpha_1 = a + A*\delta + R_0*\eta_0 % % m*q matrix A and m*(m-q) matrix R_0 are selection matrices (their % columns constitue all the columns of the m*m identity matrix) so that % % A'*R_0 = 0 and A'*\alpha_1 = \delta % % We assume that the vector \delta is distributed as a N(0,\kappa*I_q) % for a given \kappa > 0. So that the expectation of \alpha_1 is a and % its variance is P, with % % P = \kappa*P_{\infty} + P_{\star} % % P_{\infty} = A*A' % P_{\star} = R_0*Q_0*R_0' % % P_{\infty} is a m*m diagonal matrix with q ones and m-q zeros. % % % and where: % % y_t is a pp*1 vector % \alpha_t is a mm*1 vector % \varepsilon_t is a pp*1 multivariate random variable (iid N(0,H_t)) % \eta_t is a rr*1 multivariate random variable (iid N(0,Q_t)) % a_1 is a mm*1 vector % % Z_t is a pp*mm matrix % T_t is a mm*mm matrix % H_t is a pp*pp matrix % R_t is a mm*rr matrix % Q_t is a rr*rr matrix % P_1 is a mm*mm matrix % % % FILTERING EQUATIONS: % % v_t = y_t - Z_t* a_t % F_t = Z_t * P_t * Z_t' + H_t % K_t = T_t * P_t * Z_t' * F_t^{-1} % L_t = T_t - K_t * Z_t % a_{t+1} = T_t * a_t + K_t * v_t % P_{t+1} = T_t * P_t * L_t' + R_t*Q_t*R_t' % % % DIFFUSE FILTERING EQUATIONS: % % a_{t+1} = T_t*a_t + K_{\infty,t}v_t % P_{\infty,t+1} = T_t*P_{\infty,t}*L_{\infty,t}' % P_{\ast,t+1} = T_t*P_{\ast,t}*L_{\infty,t}' - K_{\infty,t}*F_{\infty,t}*K_{\ast,t}' + R_t*Q_t*R_t' % K_{\infty,t} = T_t*P_{\infty,t}*Z_t'*F_{\infty,t}^{-1} % v_t = y_t - Z_t*a_t % L_{\infty,t} = T_t - K_{\infty,t}*Z_t % F_{\infty,t} = Z_t*P_{\infty,t}*Z_t' % K_{\ast,t} = (T_t*P_{\ast,t}*Z_t' + K_{\infty,t}*F_{\ast,t})*F_{\infty,t}^{-1} % F_{\ast,t} = Z_t*P_{\ast,t}*Z_t' + H_t % % Matrix Finf is assumed to be non singular. If this is not the case we have % to switch to another algorithm (NewAlg=3). % % start = options_.presample global bayestopt_ options_ mf = bayestopt_.mf; smpl = size(Y,2); mm = size(T,2); pp = size(Y,1); a = zeros(mm,1); dF = 1; QQ = R*Q*transpose(R); t = 0; lik = zeros(smpl+1,1); LIK = Inf; lik(smpl+1) = smpl*pp*log(2*pi); notsteady = 1; crit = options_.kalman_tol; reste = 0; while rank(Pinf,crit) & t < smpl t = t+1; v = Y(:,t)-a(mf)-trend(:,t); Finf = Pinf(mf,mf); if rcond(Finf) < crit if ~all(abs(Finf(:)) factorization of the transition matrix... Pstar = T*(Pstar-K*Pstar(mf,:))*transpose(T)+QQ; %% ... idem (stephane) end notsteady = ~(max(max(abs(Pstar-oldPstar)))