function [alphahat,epsilonhat,etahat,a1] = DiffuseKalmanSmootherH3corr(T,R,Q,H,Pinf1,Pstar1,Y,trend,pp,mm,smpl,mf) % stephane.adjemian@cepremap.cnrs.fr [09-16-2004] % % See "Fast Filtering and Smoothing for Multivariate State Space % Models", S.J. Koopman and J. Durbin (2000, in Journal of Time Series % Analysis, vol. 21(3), pp. 281-296). global options_; rr = size(Q,1); T = cat(1,cat(2,T,zeros(mm,pp)),zeros(pp,mm+pp)); R = cat(1,cat(2,R,zeros(mm,pp)),cat(2,zeros(pp,rr),eye(pp))); Q = cat(1,cat(2,Q,zeros(rr,pp)),cat(2,zeros(pp,rr),H)); if size(Pinf1,1) % Otherwise Pinf = 0 (no unit root) Pinf1 = cat(1,cat(2,Pinf1,zeros(mm,pp)),zeros(pp,mm+pp)); end Pstar1 = cat(1,cat(2,Pstar1,zeros(mm,pp)),cat(2,zeros(pp,mm),H)); spinf = size(Pinf1); spstar = size(Pstar1); Pstar = zeros(spstar(1),spstar(2),smpl+1); Pstar(:,:,1) = Pstar1; Pinf = zeros(spinf(1),spinf(2),smpl+1); Pinf(:,:,1) = Pinf1; Pstar1 = Pstar; Pinf1 = Pinf; v = zeros(pp,smpl); a = zeros(mm+pp,smpl+1); a1 = a; Fstar = zeros(pp,smpl); Finf = zeros(pp,smpl); Fi = zeros(pp,smpl); Ki = zeros(mm+pp,pp,smpl); Li = zeros(mm+pp,mm+pp,pp,smpl); Linf = zeros(mm+pp,mm+pp,pp,smpl); L0 = zeros(mm+pp,mm+pp,pp,smpl); Kstar = zeros(mm+pp,pp,smpl); Kinf = zeros(mm+pp,pp,smpl); P = zeros(mm+pp,mm+pp,smpl+1); P1 = zeros(mm+pp,mm+pp,smpl+1); crit = options_.kalman_tol; steady = smpl; QQ = R*Q*transpose(R); QRt = Q*transpose(R); alphahat = zeros(mm+pp,smpl); etahat = zeros(rr,smpl); epsilonhat = zeros(pp,smpl); r = zeros(mm+pp,smpl); Z = zeros(pp,mm+pp); for i=1:pp; Z(i,mf(i)) = 1; Z(i,mm+i) = 1; end %% [1] Kalman filter... t = 0; newRank = rank(Pinf(:,:,1),crit); while newRank & t < smpl t = t+1; a1(:,t) = a(:,t); Pstar1(:,:,t) = Pstar(:,:,t); Pinf1(:,:,t) = Pinf(:,:,t); for i=1:pp v(i,t) = Y(i,t)-a(mf(i),t)-a(mm+i,t)-trend(i,t); Fstar(i,t) = Pstar(mf(i),mf(i),t)+Pstar(mm+i,mm+i,t); Finf(i,t) = Pinf(mf(i),mf(i),t); Kstar(:,i,t) = Pstar(:,mf(i),t)+Pstar(:,mm+i,t); if Finf(i,t) > crit Kinf(:,i,t) = Pinf(:,mf(i),t); Linf(:,:,i,t) = eye(mm+pp) - Kinf(:,i,t)*Z(i,:)/Finf(i,t); L0(:,:,i,t) = (Kinf(:,i,t)*Fstar(i,t)/Finf(i,t) - Kstar(:,i,t))*Z(i,:)/Finf(i,t); a(:,t) = a(:,t) + Kinf(:,i,t)*v(i,t)/Finf(i,t); Pstar(:,:,t) = Pstar(:,:,t) + ... Kinf(:,i,t)*transpose(Kinf(:,i,t))*Fstar(i,t)/(Finf(i,t)*Finf(i,t)) - ... (Kstar(:,i,t)*transpose(Kinf(:,i,t)) +... Kinf(:,i,t)*transpose(Kstar(:,i,t)))/Finf(i,t); Pinf(:,:,t) = Pinf(:,:,t) - Kinf(:,i,t)*transpose(Kinf(:,i,t))/Finf(i,t); else %% Note that : (1) rank(Pinf)=0 implies that Finf = 0, (2) outside this loop (when for some i and t the condition %% rank(Pinf)=0 is satisfied we have P = Pstar and F = Fstar and (3) Finf = 0 does not imply that %% rank(Pinf)=0. [stéphane,11-03-2004]. a(:,t) = a(:,t) + Kstar(:,i,t)*v(i,t)/Fstar(i,t); Pstar(:,:,t) = Pstar(:,:,t) - Kstar(:,i,t)*transpose(Kstar(:,i,t))/Fstar(i,t); end end a(:,t+1) = T*a(:,t); Pstar(:,:,t+1) = T*Pstar(:,:,t)*transpose(T)+ QQ; Pinf(:,:,t+1) = T*Pinf(:,:,t)*transpose(T); P0=Pinf(:,:,t+1); newRank = ~all(abs(P0(:)) crit Li(:,:,i,t) = eye(mm+pp)-Ki(:,i,t)*Z(i,:)/Fi(i,t); a(:,t) = a(:,t) + Ki(:,i,t)*v(i,t)/Fi(i,t); P(:,:,t) = P(:,:,t) - Ki(:,i,t)*transpose(Ki(:,i,t))/Fi(i,t); P(:,:,t)=tril(P(:,:,t))+transpose(tril(P(:,:,t),-1)); end end a(:,t+1) = T*a(:,t); P(:,:,t+1) = T*P(:,:,t)*transpose(T) + QQ; notsteady = ~(max(max(abs(P(:,:,t+1)-P(:,:,t)))) crit a(:,t) = a(:,t) + Ki_s(:,i)*v(i,t)/Fi_s(i); end end a(:,t+1) = T*a(:,t); end a1(:,t+1) = a(:,t+1); %% [2] Kalman smoother... ri=r; t = smpl+1; while t>d+1 & t>2, t = t-1; for i=pp:-1:1 if Fi(i,t) > crit ri(:,t)=transpose(Z(i,:))/Fi(i,t)*v(i,t)+transpose(Li(:,:,i,t))*ri(:,t); end end r(:,t-1) = ri(:,t); alphahat(:,t) = a1(:,t) + P1(:,:,t)*r(:,t-1); tmp = QRt*r(:,t); etahat(:,t) = tmp(1:rr); epsilonhat(:,t) = tmp(rr+1:rr+pp); ri(:,t-1) = transpose(T)*ri(:,t); end if d r0 = zeros(mm+pp,d); r0(:,d) = ri(:,d); r1 = zeros(mm+pp,d); for t = d:-1:2 for i=pp:-1:1 if Finf(i,t) > crit r1(:,t) = transpose(Z)*v(:,t)/Finf(i,t) + ... transpose(L0(:,:,i,t))*r0(:,t) + transpose(Linf(:,:,i,t))*r1(:,t); r0(:,t) = transpose(Linf(:,:,i,t))*r0(:,t); end end alphahat(:,t) = a1(:,t) + Pstar1(:,:,t)*r0(:,t) + Pinf1(:,:,t)*r1(:,t); r(:,t-1) = r0(:,t); tmp = QRt*r(:,t); etahat(:,t) = tmp(1:rr); epsilonhat(:,t) = tmp(rr+1:rr+pp); r0(:,t-1) = transpose(T)*r0(:,t); r1(:,t-1) = transpose(T)*r1(:,t); end r0_0 = r0(:,1); r1_0 = r1(:,1); for i=pp:-1:1 if Finf(i,1) > crit, r1_0 = transpose(Z)*v(:,1)/Finf(i,1) + ... transpose(L0(:,:,i,1))*r0_0 + transpose(Linf(:,:,i,1))*r1_0; r0_0 = transpose(Linf(:,:,i,1))*r0_0; end end alphahat(:,1) = a(:,1) + Pstar(:,:,1)*r0_0 + Pinf(:,:,1)*r1_0; tmp = QRt*r(:,1); etahat(:,1) = tmp(1:rr); epsilonhat(:,1) = tmp(rr+1:rr+pp); else r0 = ri(:,1); for i=pp:-1:1 if Fi(i,1) > crit r0=transpose(Z(i,:))/Fi(i,1)*v(i,1)+transpose(Li(:,:,i,1))*r0; end end alphahat(:,1) = a(:,1) + P(:,:,1)*r0; tmp = QRt*r(:,1); etahat(:,1) = tmp(1:rr); epsilonhat(:,1) = tmp(rr+1:rr+pp); end alphahat = alphahat(1:mm,:);