function [LIK,lik] = conditional_particle_filter(ReducedForm,Y,start,DynareOptions) % % Evaluates the likelihood of a non-linear model with a particle filter % - the proposal is built using the Kalman updating step for each particle. % - we need draws in the errors distributions % Whether we use Monte-Carlo draws from a multivariate gaussian distribution % as in Amisano & Tristani (JEDC 2010). % Whether we use multidimensional Gaussian sparse grids approximations: % - a univariate Kronrod-Paterson Gaussian quadrature combined by the Smolyak % operator (ref: Winschel & Kratzig, 2010). % - a spherical-radial cubature (ref: Arasaratnam & Haykin, 2009a,2009b). % - a scaled unscented transform cubature (ref: Julier & Uhlmann 1997, van der % Merwe & Wan 2003). % % Pros: % - Allows using current observable information in the proposal % - The use of sparse grids Gaussian approximation is much faster than the Monte-Carlo approach % Cons: % - The use of the Kalman updating step may biais the proposal distribution since % it has been derived in a linear context and is implemented in a nonlinear % context. That is why particle resampling is performed. % % INPUTS % reduced_form_model [structure] Matlab's structure describing the reduced form model. % reduced_form_model.measurement.H [double] (pp x pp) variance matrix of measurement errors. % reduced_form_model.state.Q [double] (qq x qq) variance matrix of state errors. % reduced_form_model.state.dr [structure] output of resol.m. % Y [double] pp*smpl matrix of (detrended) data, where pp is the maximum number of observed variables. % start [integer] scalar, likelihood evaluation starts at 'start'. % smolyak_accuracy [integer] scalar. % % OUTPUTS % LIK [double] scalar, likelihood % lik [double] vector, density of observations in each period. % % REFERENCES % % NOTES % The vector "lik" is used to evaluate the jacobian of the likelihood. % Copyright (C) 2009-2010 Dynare Team % % This file is part of Dynare. % % Dynare is free software: you can redistribute it and/or modify % it under the terms of the GNU General Public License as published by % the Free Software Foundation, either version 3 of the License, or % (at your option) any later version. % % Dynare is distributed in the hope that it will be useful, % but WITHOUT ANY WARRANTY; without even the implied warranty of % MERCHANTABILITY or FITNESS FOR A PARTICULAR PURPOSE. See the % GNU General Public License for more details. % % You should have received a copy of the GNU General Public License % along with Dynare. If not, see . % AUTHOR(S) frederic DOT karame AT univ DASH lemans DOT fr % stephane DOT adjemian AT univ DASH lemans DOT fr persistent init_flag mf0 mf1 persistent number_of_particles persistent sample_size number_of_state_variables number_of_observed_variables % Set default if isempty(start) start = 1; end % Set persistent variables. if isempty(init_flag) mf0 = ReducedForm.mf0; mf1 = ReducedForm.mf1; sample_size = size(Y,2); number_of_state_variables = length(mf0); number_of_observed_variables = length(mf1); init_flag = 1; number_of_particles = DynareOptions.particle.number_of_particles ; end % Get covariance matrices Q = ReducedForm.Q; H = ReducedForm.H; if isempty(H) H = 0; H_lower_triangular_cholesky = 0; else H_lower_triangular_cholesky = reduced_rank_cholesky(H)'; end % Get initial condition for the state vector. StateVectorMean = ReducedForm.StateVectorMean; StateVectorVarianceSquareRoot = reduced_rank_cholesky(ReducedForm.StateVectorVariance)'; state_variance_rank = size(StateVectorVarianceSquareRoot,2); Q_lower_triangular_cholesky = reduced_rank_cholesky(Q)'; % Set seed for randn(). set_dynare_seed('default'); % Initialization of the likelihood. normconst2 = log(2*pi)*number_of_observed_variables*prod(diag(H_lower_triangular_cholesky)) ; lik = NaN(sample_size,1); LIK = NaN; ks = 0 ; StateParticles = bsxfun(@plus,StateVectorVarianceSquareRoot*randn(state_variance_rank,number_of_particles),StateVectorMean); SampleWeights = ones(1,number_of_particles)/number_of_particles ; for t=1:sample_size for i=1:number_of_particles [StateParticles(:,i),SampleWeights(i)] = ... conditional_filter_proposal(ReducedForm,Y(:,t),StateParticles(:,i),SampleWeights(i),Q_lower_triangular_cholesky,H_lower_triangular_cholesky,H,DynareOptions,normconst2) ; end SumSampleWeights = sum(SampleWeights) ; lik(t) = log(SumSampleWeights) ; SampleWeights = SampleWeights./SumSampleWeights ; if (strcmp(DynareOptions.particle.resampling.status,'generic') && neff(SampleWeights)