function [fval,info,exit_flag,DLIK,Hess,ys,trend_coeff,Model,DynareOptions,BayesInfo,DynareResults] = non_linear_dsge_likelihood(xparam1,DynareDataset,DatasetInfo,DynareOptions,Model,EstimatedParameters,BayesInfo,BoundsInfo,DynareResults) % Evaluates the posterior kernel of a dsge model using a non linear filter. %@info: %! @deftypefn {Function File} {[@var{fval},@var{exit_flag},@var{ys},@var{trend_coeff},@var{info},@var{Model},@var{DynareOptions},@var{BayesInfo},@var{DynareResults}] =} non_linear_dsge_likelihood (@var{xparam1},@var{DynareDataset},@var{DynareOptions},@var{Model},@var{EstimatedParameters},@var{BayesInfo},@var{DynareResults}) %! @anchor{dsge_likelihood} %! @sp 1 %! Evaluates the posterior kernel of a dsge model using a non linear filter. %! @sp 2 %! @strong{Inputs} %! @sp 1 %! @table @ @var %! @item xparam1 %! Vector of doubles, current values for the estimated parameters. %! @item DynareDataset %! Matlab's structure describing the dataset (initialized by dynare, see @ref{dataset_}). %! @item DynareOptions %! Matlab's structure describing the options (initialized by dynare, see @ref{options_}). %! @item Model %! Matlab's structure describing the Model (initialized by dynare, see @ref{M_}). %! @item EstimatedParamemeters %! Matlab's structure describing the estimated_parameters (initialized by dynare, see @ref{estim_params_}). %! @item BayesInfo %! Matlab's structure describing the priors (initialized by dynare, see @ref{bayesopt_}). %! @item DynareResults %! Matlab's structure gathering the results (initialized by dynare, see @ref{oo_}). %! @end table %! @sp 2 %! @strong{Outputs} %! @sp 1 %! @table @ @var %! @item fval %! Double scalar, value of (minus) the likelihood. %! @item info %! Double vector, fourth entry stores penalty, first entry the error code. %! @table @ @code %! @item info==0 %! No error. %! @item info==1 %! The model doesn't determine the current variables uniquely. %! @item info==2 %! MJDGGES returned an error code. %! @item info==3 %! Blanchard & Kahn conditions are not satisfied: no stable equilibrium. %! @item info==4 %! Blanchard & Kahn conditions are not satisfied: indeterminacy. %! @item info==5 %! Blanchard & Kahn conditions are not satisfied: indeterminacy due to rank failure. %! @item info==6 %! The jacobian evaluated at the deterministic steady state is complex. %! @item info==19 %! The steadystate routine has thrown an exception (inconsistent deep parameters). %! @item info==20 %! Cannot find the steady state, info(2) contains the sum of square residuals (of the static equations). %! @item info==21 %! The steady state is complex, info(2) contains the sum of square of imaginary parts of the steady state. %! @item info==22 %! The steady has NaNs. %! @item info==23 %! M_.params has been updated in the steadystate routine and has complex valued scalars. %! @item info==24 %! M_.params has been updated in the steadystate routine and has some NaNs. %! @item info==30 %! Ergodic variance can't be computed. %! @item info==41 %! At least one parameter is violating a lower bound condition. %! @item info==42 %! At least one parameter is violating an upper bound condition. %! @item info==43 %! The covariance matrix of the structural innovations is not positive definite. %! @item info==44 %! The covariance matrix of the measurement errors is not positive definite. %! @item info==45 %! Likelihood is not a number (NaN). %! @item info==45 %! Likelihood is a complex valued number. %! @end table %! @item exit_flag %! Integer scalar, equal to zero if the routine return with a penalty (one otherwise). %! @item DLIK %! Vector of doubles, placeholder for score of the likelihood, currently %! not supported by non_linear_dsge_likelihood %! @item AHess %! Matrix of doubles, placeholder for asymptotic hessian matrix, currently %! not supported by non_linear_dsge_likelihood %! @item ys %! Vector of doubles, steady state level for the endogenous variables. %! @item trend_coeffs %! Matrix of doubles, coefficients of the deterministic trend in the measurement equation. %! @item Model %! Matlab's structure describing the model (initialized by dynare, see @ref{M_}). %! @item DynareOptions %! Matlab's structure describing the options (initialized by dynare, see @ref{options_}). %! @item BayesInfo %! Matlab's structure describing the priors (initialized by dynare, see @ref{bayesopt_}). %! @item DynareResults %! Matlab's structure gathering the results (initialized by dynare, see @ref{oo_}). %! @end table %! @sp 2 %! @strong{This function is called by:} %! @sp 1 %! @ref{dynare_estimation_1}, @ref{mode_check} %! @sp 2 %! @strong{This function calls:} %! @sp 1 %! @ref{dynare_resolve}, @ref{lyapunov_symm}, @ref{priordens} %! @end deftypefn %@eod: % Copyright (C) 2010-2017 Dynare Team % % This file is part of Dynare. % % Dynare is free software: you can redistribute it and/or modify % it under the terms of the GNU General Public License as published by % the Free Software Foundation, either version 3 of the License, or % (at your option) any later version. % % Dynare is distributed in the hope that it will be useful, % but WITHOUT ANY WARRANTY; without even the implied warranty of % MERCHANTABILITY or FITNESS FOR A PARTICULAR PURPOSE. See the % GNU General Public License for more details. % % You should have received a copy of the GNU General Public License % along with Dynare. If not, see . % Declaration of the penalty as a persistent variable. persistent init_flag persistent restrict_variables_idx observed_variables_idx state_variables_idx mf0 mf1 persistent sample_size number_of_state_variables number_of_observed_variables number_of_structural_innovations % Initialization of the returned arguments. fval = []; ys = []; trend_coeff = []; exit_flag = 1; DLIK = []; Hess = []; % Ensure that xparam1 is a column vector. xparam1 = xparam1(:); % Issue an error if loglinear option is used. if DynareOptions.loglinear error('non_linear_dsge_likelihood: It is not possible to use a non linear filter with the option loglinear!') end %------------------------------------------------------------------------------ % 1. Get the structural parameters & define penalties %------------------------------------------------------------------------------ % Return, with endogenous penalty, if some parameters are smaller than the lower bound of the prior domain. if isestimation(DynareOptions) && (DynareOptions.mode_compute~=1) && any(xparam1BoundsInfo.ub) k = find(xparam1(:)>BoundsInfo.ub); fval = Inf; exit_flag = 0; info(1) = 42; info(4) = sum((xparam1(k)-BoundsInfo.ub(k)).^2); return end Model = set_all_parameters(xparam1,EstimatedParameters,Model); Q = Model.Sigma_e; H = Model.H; if ~issquare(Q) || EstimatedParameters.ncx || isfield(EstimatedParameters,'calibrated_covariances') [Q_is_positive_definite, penalty] = ispd(Q(EstimatedParameters.Sigma_e_entries_to_check_for_positive_definiteness,EstimatedParameters.Sigma_e_entries_to_check_for_positive_definiteness)); if ~Q_is_positive_definite fval = Inf; exit_flag = 0; info(1) = 43; info(4) = penalty; return end if isfield(EstimatedParameters,'calibrated_covariances') correct_flag=check_consistency_covariances(Q); if ~correct_flag penalty = sum(Q(EstimatedParameters.calibrated_covariances.position).^2); fval = Inf; exit_flag = 0; info(1) = 71; info(4) = penalty; return end end end if ~issquare(H) || EstimatedParameters.ncn || isfield(EstimatedParameters,'calibrated_covariances_ME') [H_is_positive_definite, penalty] = ispd(H(EstimatedParameters.H_entries_to_check_for_positive_definiteness,EstimatedParameters.H_entries_to_check_for_positive_definiteness)); if ~H_is_positive_definite fval = Inf; exit_flag = 0; info(1) = 44; info(4) = penalty; return end if isfield(EstimatedParameters,'calibrated_covariances_ME') correct_flag=check_consistency_covariances(H); if ~correct_flag penalty = sum(H(EstimatedParameters.calibrated_covariances_ME.position).^2); fval = Inf; exit_flag = 0; info(1) = 72; info(4) = penalty; return end end end %------------------------------------------------------------------------------ % 2. call model setup & reduction program %------------------------------------------------------------------------------ % Linearize the model around the deterministic sdteadystate and extract the matrices of the state equation (T and R). [T,R,SteadyState,info,Model,DynareOptions,DynareResults] = dynare_resolve(Model,DynareOptions,DynareResults,'restrict'); if info(1) if info(1) == 3 || info(1) == 4 || info(1) == 5 || info(1)==6 ||info(1) == 19 || ... info(1) == 20 || info(1) == 21 || info(1) == 23 || info(1) == 26 || ... info(1) == 81 || info(1) == 84 || info(1) == 85 %meaningful second entry of output that can be used fval = Inf; info(4) = info(2); exit_flag = 0; return else fval = Inf; info(4) = 0.1; exit_flag = 0; return end end % Define a vector of indices for the observed variables. Is this really usefull?... BayesInfo.mf = BayesInfo.mf1; % Define the deterministic linear trend of the measurement equation. if DynareOptions.noconstant constant = zeros(DynareDataset.vobs,1); else constant = SteadyState(BayesInfo.mfys); end % Define the deterministic linear trend of the measurement equation. if BayesInfo.with_trend [trend_addition, trend_coeff]=compute_trend_coefficients(Model,DynareOptions,DynareDataset.vobs,DynareDataset.nobs); trend = repmat(constant,1,DynareDataset.info.ntobs)+trend_addition; else trend = repmat(constant,1,DynareDataset.nobs); end % Get needed informations for kalman filter routines. start = DynareOptions.presample+1; np = size(T,1); mf = BayesInfo.mf; Y = transpose(DynareDataset.data); %------------------------------------------------------------------------------ % 3. Initial condition of the Kalman filter %------------------------------------------------------------------------------ % Get decision rules and transition equations. dr = DynareResults.dr; % Set persistent variables (first call). if isempty(init_flag) mf0 = BayesInfo.mf0; mf1 = BayesInfo.mf1; restrict_variables_idx = dr.restrict_var_list; observed_variables_idx = restrict_variables_idx(mf1); state_variables_idx = restrict_variables_idx(mf0); sample_size = size(Y,2); number_of_state_variables = length(mf0); number_of_observed_variables = length(mf1); number_of_structural_innovations = length(Q); init_flag = 1; end ReducedForm.ghx = dr.ghx(restrict_variables_idx,:); ReducedForm.ghu = dr.ghu(restrict_variables_idx,:); ReducedForm.ghxx = dr.ghxx(restrict_variables_idx,:); ReducedForm.ghuu = dr.ghuu(restrict_variables_idx,:); ReducedForm.ghxu = dr.ghxu(restrict_variables_idx,:); ReducedForm.steadystate = dr.ys(dr.order_var(restrict_variables_idx)); ReducedForm.constant = ReducedForm.steadystate + .5*dr.ghs2(restrict_variables_idx); ReducedForm.state_variables_steady_state = dr.ys(dr.order_var(state_variables_idx)); ReducedForm.Q = Q; ReducedForm.H = H; ReducedForm.mf0 = mf0; ReducedForm.mf1 = mf1; % Set initial condition. switch DynareOptions.particle.initialization case 1% Initial state vector covariance is the ergodic variance associated to the first order Taylor-approximation of the model. StateVectorMean = ReducedForm.constant(mf0); StateVectorVariance = lyapunov_symm(ReducedForm.ghx(mf0,:),ReducedForm.ghu(mf0,:)*ReducedForm.Q*ReducedForm.ghu(mf0,:)',DynareOptions.lyapunov_fixed_point_tol,DynareOptions.qz_criterium,DynareOptions.lyapunov_complex_threshold,[],DynareOptions.debug); case 2% Initial state vector covariance is a monte-carlo based estimate of the ergodic variance (consistent with a k-order Taylor-approximation of the model). StateVectorMean = ReducedForm.constant(mf0); old_DynareOptionsperiods = DynareOptions.periods; DynareOptions.periods = 5000; y_ = simult(DynareResults.steady_state, dr,Model,DynareOptions,DynareResults); y_ = y_(state_variables_idx,2001:5000); StateVectorVariance = cov(y_'); DynareOptions.periods = old_DynareOptionsperiods; clear('old_DynareOptionsperiods','y_'); case 3% Initial state vector covariance is a diagonal matrix (to be used % if model has stochastic trends). StateVectorMean = ReducedForm.constant(mf0); StateVectorVariance = DynareOptions.particle.initial_state_prior_std*eye(number_of_state_variables); otherwise error('Unknown initialization option!') end ReducedForm.StateVectorMean = StateVectorMean; ReducedForm.StateVectorVariance = StateVectorVariance; %------------------------------------------------------------------------------ % 4. Likelihood evaluation %------------------------------------------------------------------------------ DynareOptions.warning_for_steadystate = 0; [s1,s2] = get_dynare_random_generator_state(); LIK = feval(DynareOptions.particle.algorithm,ReducedForm,Y,start,DynareOptions.particle,DynareOptions.threads); set_dynare_random_generator_state(s1,s2); if imag(LIK) likelihood = Inf; info(1) = 46; info(4) = 0.1; exit_flag = 0; elseif isnan(LIK) likelihood = Inf; info(1) = 45; info(4) = 0.1; exit_flag = 0; else likelihood = LIK; end DynareOptions.warning_for_steadystate = 1; % ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ % Adds prior if necessary % ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ lnprior = priordens(xparam1(:),BayesInfo.pshape,BayesInfo.p6,BayesInfo.p7,BayesInfo.p3,BayesInfo.p4); fval = (likelihood-lnprior); if isnan(fval) fval = Inf; info(1) = 47; info(4) = 0.1; exit_flag = 0; return end if imag(fval)~=0 fval = Inf; info(1) = 48; info(4) = 0.1; exit_flag = 0; return end if isinf(LIK)~=0 fval = Inf; info(1) = 50; info(4) = 0.1; exit_flag = 0; return end