function [forcs, e]= mcforecast3(cL,H,mcValue,shocks,forcs,T,R,mv,mu) % forcs = mcforecast3(cL,H,mcValue,shocks,forcs,T,R,mv,mu) % Computes the shock values for constrained forecasts necessary to keep % endogenous variables at their constrained paths % % INPUTS % o cL [scalar] number of controlled periods % o H [scalar] number of forecast periods % o mcValue [n_controlled_vars by cL double] paths for constrained variables % o shocks [nexo by H double] shock values draws (with zeros for controlled_varexo) % o forcs % o T [n_endovars by n_endovars double] transition matrix of the state equation. % o R [n_endovars by n_exo double] matrix relating the endogenous variables to the innovations in the state equation. % o mv [n_controlled_exo by n_endovars boolean] indicator vector selecting constrained endogenous variables % o mu [n_controlled_vars by nexo boolean] indicator vector % selecting controlled exogenous variables % % Algorithm: % Relies on state-space form: % y_t=T*y_{t-1}+R*shocks(:,t) % Shocks are split up into shocks_uncontrolled and shockscontrolled while % the endogenous variables are also split up into controlled and % uncontrolled ones to get: % y_t(controlled_vars_index)=T*y_{t-1}(controlled_vars_index)+R(controlled_vars_index,uncontrolled_shocks_index)*shocks_uncontrolled_t % + R(controlled_vars_index,controlled_shocks_index)*shocks_controlled_t % % This is then solved to get: % shocks_controlled_t=(y_t(controlled_vars_index)-(T*y_{t-1}(controlled_vars_index)+R(controlled_vars_index,uncontrolled_shocks_index)*shocks_uncontrolled_t)/R(controlled_vars_index,controlled_shocks_index) % % Variable number of controlled vars are allowed in different % periods. Missing control information are indicated by NaN in % y_t(controlled_vars_index). % % After obtaining the shocks, and for uncontrolled periods, the state-space representation % y_t=T*y_{t-1}+R*shocks(:,t) % is used for forecasting % % Copyright (C) 2006-2017 Dynare Team % % This file is part of Dynare. % % Dynare is free software: you can redistribute it and/or modify % it under the terms of the GNU General Public License as published by % the Free Software Foundation, either version 3 of the License, or % (at your option) any later version. % % Dynare is distributed in the hope that it will be useful, % but WITHOUT ANY WARRANTY; without even the implied warranty of % MERCHANTABILITY or FITNESS FOR A PARTICULAR PURPOSE. See the % GNU General Public License for more details. % % You should have received a copy of the GNU General Public License % along with Dynare. If not, see . if cL e = zeros(size(mcValue,1),cL); for t = 1:cL % missing conditional values are indicated by NaN k = find(isfinite(mcValue(:,t))); e(k,t) = inv(mv(k,:)*R*mu(:,k))*(mcValue(k,t)-mv(k,:)*T*forcs(:,t)-mv(k,:)*R*shocks(:,t)); forcs(:,t+1) = T*forcs(:,t)+R*(mu(:,k)*e(k,t)+shocks(:,t)); end end for t = cL+1:H forcs(:,t+1) = T*forcs(:,t)+R*shocks(:,t); end