function [alphahat,epsilonhat,etahat,a,P,aK,PK,decomp] = missing_DiffuseKalmanSmootherH3_Z(T,Z,R,Q,H,Pinf1,Pstar1,Y,pp,mm,smpl,data_index,nk,kalman_tol,diffuse_kalman_tol,decomp_flag) % function [alphahat,epsilonhat,etahat,a1,P,aK,PK,d,decomp] = missing_DiffuseKalmanSmootherH3_Z(T,Z,R,Q,H,Pinf1,Pstar1,Y,pp,mm,smpl,data_index,nk,kalman_tol,decomp_flag) % Computes the diffuse kalman smoother without measurement error, in the case of a singular var-cov matrix. % Univariate treatment of multivariate time series. % % INPUTS % T: mm*mm matrix % Z: pp*mm matrix % R: mm*rr matrix % Q: rr*rr matrix % H: pp*1 vector of variance of measurement errors % Pinf1: mm*mm diagonal matrix with with q ones and m-q zeros % Pstar1: mm*mm variance-covariance matrix with stationary variables % Y: pp*1 vector % pp: number of observed variables % mm: number of state variables % smpl: sample size % data_index [cell] 1*smpl cell of column vectors of indices. % nk number of forecasting periods % kalman_tol tolerance for zero divider % diffuse_kalman_tol tolerance for zero divider % decomp_flag if true, compute filter decomposition % % OUTPUTS % alphahat: smoothed state variables (a_{t|T}) % epsilonhat: measurement errors % etahat: smoothed shocks % a: matrix of updated variables (a_{t|t}) % aK: 3D array of k step ahead filtered state variables (a_{t+k|t}) % (meaningless for periods 1:d) % P: 3D array of one-step ahead forecast error variance % matrices % PK: 4D array of k-step ahead forecast error variance % matrices (meaningless for periods 1:d) % decomp: decomposition of the effect of shocks on filtered values % % SPECIAL REQUIREMENTS % See "Filtering and Smoothing of State Vector for Diffuse State Space % Models", S.J. Koopman and J. Durbin (2003, in Journal of Time Series % Analysis, vol. 24(1), pp. 85-98). % Copyright (C) 2004-2015 Dynare Team % % This file is part of Dynare. % % Dynare is free software: you can redistribute it and/or modify % it under the terms of the GNU General Public License as published by % the Free Software Foundation, either version 3 of the License, or % (at your option) any later version. % % Dynare is distributed in the hope that it will be useful, % but WITHOUT ANY WARRANTY; without even the implied warranty of % MERCHANTABILITY or FITNESS FOR A PARTICULAR PURPOSE. See the % GNU General Public License for more details. % % You should have received a copy of the GNU General Public License % along with Dynare. If not, see . % Modified by M. Ratto % New output argument aK: 1-step to nk-stpe ahed predictions) % New input argument nk: max order of predictions in aK d = 0; decomp = []; spinf = size(Pinf1); spstar = size(Pstar1); v = zeros(pp,smpl); a = zeros(mm,smpl); a1 = zeros(mm,smpl+1); aK = zeros(nk,mm,smpl+nk); Fstar = zeros(pp,smpl); Finf = zeros(pp,smpl); Fi = zeros(pp,smpl); Ki = zeros(mm,pp,smpl); Kstar = zeros(mm,pp,smpl); P = zeros(mm,mm,smpl+1); P1 = P; PK = zeros(nk,mm,mm,smpl+nk); Pstar = zeros(spstar(1),spstar(2),smpl); Pstar(:,:,1) = Pstar1; Pinf = zeros(spinf(1),spinf(2),smpl); Pinf(:,:,1) = Pinf1; Pstar1 = Pstar; Pinf1 = Pinf; steady = smpl; rr = size(Q,1); % number of structural shocks QQ = R*Q*transpose(R); QRt = Q*transpose(R); alphahat = zeros(mm,smpl); etahat = zeros(rr,smpl); epsilonhat = zeros(rr,smpl); r = zeros(mm,smpl); t = 0; icc=0; newRank = rank(Pinf(:,:,1),diffuse_kalman_tol); while newRank && t < smpl t = t+1; a(:,t) = a1(:,t); Pstar1(:,:,t) = Pstar(:,:,t); Pinf1(:,:,t) = Pinf(:,:,t); di = data_index{t}'; for i=di Zi = Z(i,:); v(i,t) = Y(i,t)-Zi*a(:,t); Fstar(i,t) = Zi*Pstar(:,:,t)*Zi' +H(i); Finf(i,t) = Zi*Pinf(:,:,t)*Zi'; Kstar(:,i,t) = Pstar(:,:,t)*Zi'; if Finf(i,t) > diffuse_kalman_tol && newRank icc=icc+1; Kinf(:,i,t) = Pinf(:,:,t)*Zi'; Kinf_Finf = Kinf(:,i,t)/Finf(i,t); a(:,t) = a(:,t) + Kinf_Finf*v(i,t); Pstar(:,:,t) = Pstar(:,:,t) + ... Kinf(:,i,t)*Kinf_Finf'*(Fstar(i,t)/Finf(i,t)) - ... Kstar(:,i,t)*Kinf_Finf' - ... Kinf_Finf*Kstar(:,i,t)'; Pinf(:,:,t) = Pinf(:,:,t) - Kinf(:,i,t)*Kinf(:,i,t)'/Finf(i,t); elseif Fstar(i,t) > kalman_tol a(:,t) = a(:,t) + Kstar(:,i,t)*v(i,t)/Fstar(i,t); Pstar(:,:,t) = Pstar(:,:,t) - Kstar(:,i,t)*Kstar(:,i,t)'/Fstar(i,t); end end if newRank oldRank = rank(Pinf(:,:,t),diffuse_kalman_tol); else oldRank = 0; end a1(:,t+1) = T*a(:,t); aK(1,:,t+1) = a1(:,t+1); for jnk=2:nk aK(jnk,:,t+jnk) = T*dynare_squeeze(aK(jnk-1,:,t+jnk-1)); end Pstar(:,:,t+1) = T*Pstar(:,:,t)*T'+ QQ; Pinf(:,:,t+1) = T*Pinf(:,:,t)*T'; P0=Pinf(:,:,t+1); if newRank, newRank = rank(Pinf(:,:,t+1),diffuse_kalman_tol); end if oldRank ~= newRank disp('univariate_diffuse_kalman_filter:: T does influence the rank of Pinf!') end end d = t; P(:,:,d+1) = Pstar(:,:,d+1); Fstar = Fstar(:,1:d); Finf = Finf(:,1:d); Kstar = Kstar(:,:,1:d); Pstar = Pstar(:,:,1:d); Pinf = Pinf(:,:,1:d); Pstar1 = Pstar1(:,:,1:d); Pinf1 = Pinf1(:,:,1:d); notsteady = 1; while notsteady && t kalman_tol a(:,t) = a(:,t) + Ki(:,i,t)*v(i,t)/Fi(i,t); P(:,:,t) = P(:,:,t) - Ki(:,i,t)*Ki(:,i,t)'/Fi(i,t); end end a1(:,t+1) = T*a(:,t); Pf = P(:,:,t); aK(1,:,t+1) = a1(:,t+1); for jnk=1:nk Pf = T*Pf*T' + QQ; PK(jnk,:,:,t+jnk) = Pf; if jnk>1 aK(jnk,:,t+jnk) = T*dynare_squeeze(aK(jnk-1,:,t+jnk-1)); end end P(:,:,t+1) = T*P(:,:,t)*T' + QQ; % notsteady = ~(max(max(abs(P(:,:,t+1)-P(:,:,t)))) kalman_tol % $$$ a(:,t) = a(:,t) + Ki_s(:,i)*v(i,t)/Fi_s(i); % $$$ end % $$$ end % $$$ a1(:,t+1) = T*a(:,t); % $$$ Pf = P(:,:,t); % $$$ for jnk=1:nk, % $$$ Pf = T*Pf*T' + QQ; % $$$ aK(jnk,:,t+jnk) = T^jnk*a(:,t); % $$$ PK(jnk,:,:,t+jnk) = Pf; % $$$ end % $$$ end ri=zeros(mm,1); t = smpl+1; while t > d+1 t = t-1; di = flipud(data_index{t})'; for i = di if Fi(i,t) > kalman_tol ri = Z(i,:)'/Fi(i,t)*v(i,t)+ri-Ki(:,i,t)'*ri/Fi(i,t)*Z(i,:)'; end end r(:,t) = ri; alphahat(:,t) = a1(:,t) + P1(:,:,t)*r(:,t); etahat(:,t) = QRt*r(:,t); ri = T'*ri; end if d r0 = zeros(mm,d); r0(:,d) = ri; r1 = zeros(mm,d); for t = d:-1:1 di = flipud(data_index{t})'; for i = di if Finf(i,t) > diffuse_kalman_tol r1(:,t) = Z(i,:)'*v(i,t)/Finf(i,t) + ... (Kinf(:,i,t)'*Fstar(i,t)/Finf(i,t)-Kstar(:,i,t)')*r0(:,t)/Finf(i,t)*Z(i,:)' + ... r1(:,t)-Kinf(:,i,t)'*r1(:,t)/Finf(i,t)*Z(i,:)'; r0(:,t) = r0(:,t)-Kinf(:,i,t)'*r0(:,t)/Finf(i,t)*Z(i,:)'; elseif Fstar(i,t) > kalman_tol % step needed whe Finf == 0 r0(:,t) = Z(i,:)'/Fstar(i,t)*v(i,t)+r0(:,t)-(Kstar(:,i,t)'*r0(:,t))/Fstar(i,t)*Z(i,:)'; end end alphahat(:,t) = a1(:,t) + Pstar1(:,:,t)*r0(:,t) + Pinf1(:,:,t)*r1(:,t); r(:,t) = r0(:,t); etahat(:,t) = QRt*r(:,t); if t > 1 r0(:,t-1) = T'*r0(:,t); r1(:,t-1) = T'*r1(:,t); end end end if decomp_flag decomp = zeros(nk,mm,rr,smpl+nk); ZRQinv = inv(Z*QQ*Z'); for t = max(d,1):smpl ri_d = zeros(mm,1); di = flipud(data_index{t})'; for i = di if Fi(i,t) > kalman_tol ri_d = Z(i,:)'/Fi(i,t)*v(i,t)+ri_d-Ki(:,i,t)'*ri_d/Fi(i,t)*Z(i,:)'; end end % calculate eta_tm1t eta_tm1t = QRt*ri_d; % calculate decomposition Ttok = eye(mm,mm); AAA = P1(:,:,t)*Z'*ZRQinv*Z*R; for h = 1:nk BBB = Ttok*AAA; for j=1:rr decomp(h,:,j,t+h) = eta_tm1t(j)*BBB(:,j); end Ttok = T*Ttok; end end end epsilonhat = Y - Z*alphahat;