function [LIK,lik] = gaussian_filter(ReducedForm, Y, start, ParticleOptions, ThreadsOptions, DynareOptions, Model) % Evaluates the likelihood of a non-linear model approximating the % predictive (prior) and filtered (posterior) densities for state variables % by gaussian distributions. % Gaussian approximation is done by: % - a spherical-radial cubature (ref: Arasaratnam & Haykin, 2009). % - a scaled unscented transform cubature (ref: Julier & Uhlmann 1995) % - Monte-Carlo draws from a multivariate gaussian distribution. % First and second moments of prior and posterior state densities are computed % from the resulting nodes/particles and allows to generate new distributions at the % following observation. % Pros: The use of nodes is much faster than Monte-Carlo Gaussian particle and standard particles % filters since it treats a lesser number of particles. Furthermore, in all cases, there is no need % of resampling. % Cons: estimations may be biaised if the model is truly non-gaussian % since predictive and filtered densities are unimodal. % % INPUTS % Reduced_Form [structure] Matlab's structure describing the reduced form model. % Y [double] matrix of original observed variables. % start [double] structural parameters. % ParticleOptions [structure] Matlab's structure describing options concerning particle filtering. % ThreadsOptions [structure] Matlab's structure. % % OUTPUTS % LIK [double] scalar, likelihood % lik [double] vector, density of observations in each period. % % REFERENCES % % NOTES % The vector "lik" is used to evaluate the jacobian of the likelihood. % Copyright © 2009-2019 Dynare Team % % This file is part of Dynare. % % Dynare is free software: you can redistribute it and/or modify % it under the terms of the GNU General Public License as published by % the Free Software Foundation, either version 3 of the License, or % (at your option) any later version. % % Dynare is distributed in the hope that it will be useful, % but WITHOUT ANY WARRANTY; without even the implied warranty of % MERCHANTABILITY or FITNESS FOR A PARTICULAR PURPOSE. See the % GNU General Public License for more details. % % You should have received a copy of the GNU General Public License % along with Dynare. If not, see . % Set default if isempty(start) start = 1; end mf0 = ReducedForm.mf0; mf1 = ReducedForm.mf1; sample_size = size(Y,2); number_of_state_variables = length(mf0); number_of_observed_variables = length(mf1); number_of_particles = ParticleOptions.number_of_particles; % compute gaussian quadrature nodes and weights on states and shocks if ParticleOptions.distribution_approximation.cubature [nodes2, weights2] = spherical_radial_sigma_points(number_of_state_variables); weights_c2 = weights2; elseif ParticleOptions.distribution_approximation.unscented [nodes2, weights2, weights_c2] = unscented_sigma_points(number_of_state_variables,ParticleOptions); else if ~ParticleOptions.distribution_approximation.montecarlo error('This approximation for the proposal is unknown!') end end if ParticleOptions.distribution_approximation.montecarlo set_dynare_seed('default'); end % Get covariance matrices Q = ReducedForm.Q; H = ReducedForm.H; if isempty(H) H = 0; H_lower_triangular_cholesky = 0; else H_lower_triangular_cholesky = reduced_rank_cholesky(H)'; end % Get initial condition for the state vector. StateVectorMean = ReducedForm.StateVectorMean; StateVectorVarianceSquareRoot = reduced_rank_cholesky(ReducedForm.StateVectorVariance)'; state_variance_rank = size(StateVectorVarianceSquareRoot,2); Q_lower_triangular_cholesky = reduced_rank_cholesky(Q)'; % Initialization of the likelihood. const_lik = (2*pi)^(number_of_observed_variables/2) ; lik = NaN(sample_size,1); LIK = NaN; for t=1:sample_size [PredictedStateMean, PredictedStateVarianceSquareRoot, StateVectorMean, StateVectorVarianceSquareRoot] = ... gaussian_filter_bank(ReducedForm, Y(:,t), StateVectorMean, StateVectorVarianceSquareRoot, Q_lower_triangular_cholesky, H_lower_triangular_cholesky, ... H, ParticleOptions, ThreadsOptions, DynareOptions, Model); if ParticleOptions.distribution_approximation.cubature || ParticleOptions.distribution_approximation.unscented StateParticles = bsxfun(@plus, StateVectorMean, StateVectorVarianceSquareRoot*nodes2'); IncrementalWeights = gaussian_densities(Y(:,t), StateVectorMean, StateVectorVarianceSquareRoot, PredictedStateMean, ... PredictedStateVarianceSquareRoot, StateParticles, H, const_lik, ... weights2, weights_c2, ReducedForm, ThreadsOptions, ... DynareOptions, Model); SampleWeights = weights2.*IncrementalWeights; else StateParticles = bsxfun(@plus, StateVectorVarianceSquareRoot*randn(state_variance_rank, number_of_particles), StateVectorMean) ; IncrementalWeights = gaussian_densities(Y(:,t), StateVectorMean, StateVectorVarianceSquareRoot, PredictedStateMean, ... PredictedStateVarianceSquareRoot,StateParticles,H,const_lik, ... 1/number_of_particles,1/number_of_particles,ReducedForm,ThreadsOptions, ... DynareOptions, Model); SampleWeights = IncrementalWeights/number_of_particles; end SampleWeights = SampleWeights + 1e-6*ones(size(SampleWeights, 1), 1); SumSampleWeights = sum(SampleWeights); lik(t) = log(SumSampleWeights); SampleWeights = SampleWeights./SumSampleWeights; if not(ParticleOptions.distribution_approximation.cubature || ParticleOptions.distribution_approximation.unscented) if (ParticleOptions.resampling.status.generic && neff(SampleWeights)