function [LIK,lik] = conditional_particle_filter(ReducedForm, Y, s, ParticleOptions, ThreadsOptions, DynareOptions, Model) % Evaluates the likelihood of a non-linear model with a particle filter % % INPUTS % - ReducedForm [structure] Matlab's structure describing the reduced form model. % - Y [double] p×T matrix of (detrended) data, where p is the number of observed variables. % - s [integer] scalar, likelihood evaluation starts at s (has to be smaller than T, the sample length provided in Y). % - ParticlesOptions [struct] % - ThreadsOptions [struct] % - DynareOptions [struct] % - Model [struct] % % OUTPUTS % - LIK [double] scalar, likelihood % - lik [double] (T-s+1)×1 vector, density of observations in each period. % % REMARKS % - The proposal is built using the Kalman updating step for each particle. % - we need draws in the errors distributions % Whether we use Monte-Carlo draws from a multivariate gaussian distribution % as in Amisano & Tristani (JEDC 2010). % Whether we use multidimensional Gaussian sparse grids approximations: % - a univariate Kronrod-Paterson Gaussian quadrature combined by the Smolyak % operator (ref: Winschel & Kratzig, 2010). % - a spherical-radial cubature (ref: Arasaratnam & Haykin, 2009a,2009b). % - a scaled unscented transform cubature (ref: Julier & Uhlmann 1997, van der % Merwe & Wan 2003). % % Pros: % - Allows using current observable information in the proposal % - The use of sparse grids Gaussian approximation is much faster than the Monte-Carlo approach % Cons: % - The use of the Kalman updating step may biais the proposal distribution since % it has been derived in a linear context and is implemented in a nonlinear % context. That is why particle resampling is performed. % Copyright © 2009-2020 Dynare Team % % This file is part of Dynare. % % Dynare is free software: you can redistribute it and/or modify % it under the terms of the GNU General Public License as published by % the Free Software Foundation, either version 3 of the License, or % (at your option) any later version. % % Dynare is distributed in the hope that it will be useful, % but WITHOUT ANY WARRANTY; without even the implied warranty of % MERCHANTABILITY or FITNESS FOR A PARTICULAR PURPOSE. See the % GNU General Public License for more details. % % You should have received a copy of the GNU General Public License % along with Dynare. If not, see . % Set default for third input argument. if isempty(s) s = 1; end T = size(Y,2); p = length(ReducedForm.mf1); n = ParticleOptions.number_of_particles; % Get covariance matrices Q = ReducedForm.Q; H = ReducedForm.H; if isempty(H) H = 0; H_lower_triangular_cholesky = 0; else H_lower_triangular_cholesky = chol(H)'; end % Get initial condition for the state vector. StateVectorMean = ReducedForm.StateVectorMean; StateVectorVarianceSquareRoot = chol(ReducedForm.StateVectorVariance)'; state_variance_rank = size(StateVectorVarianceSquareRoot, 2); Q_lower_triangular_cholesky = chol(Q)'; % Set seed for randn(). set_dynare_seed('default'); % Initialization of the likelihood. lik = NaN(T, 1); ks = 0; StateParticles = bsxfun(@plus, StateVectorVarianceSquareRoot*randn(state_variance_rank, n), StateVectorMean); SampleWeights = ones(1, n)/n; for t=1:T flags = false(n, 1); for i=1:n [StateParticles(:,i), SampleWeights(i), flags(i)] = ... conditional_filter_proposal(ReducedForm, Y(:,t), StateParticles(:,i), SampleWeights(i), Q_lower_triangular_cholesky, H_lower_triangular_cholesky, H, ParticleOptions, ThreadsOptions, DynareOptions, Model); end if any(flags) LIK = -Inf; lik(t) = -Inf; return end SumSampleWeights = sum(SampleWeights); lik(t) = log(SumSampleWeights); SampleWeights = SampleWeights./SumSampleWeights; if (ParticleOptions.resampling.status.generic && neff(SampleWeights)