function [dataset_, dataset_info, xparam1, hh, M_, options_, oo_, estim_params_,bayestopt_, bounds] = dynare_estimation_init(var_list_, dname, gsa_flag, M_, options_, oo_, estim_params_, bayestopt_) % function [dataset_, dataset_info, xparam1, hh, M_, options_, oo_, estim_params_,bayestopt_, bounds] = dynare_estimation_init(var_list_, dname, gsa_flag, M_, options_, oo_, estim_params_, bayestopt_) % performs initialization tasks before estimation or % global sensitivity analysis % % INPUTS % var_list_: selected endogenous variables vector % dname: alternative directory name % gsa_flag: flag for GSA operation (optional) % M_: structure storing the model information % options_: structure storing the options % oo_: structure storing the results % estim_params_: structure storing information about estimated % parameters % bayestopt_: structure storing information about priors % OUTPUTS % dataset_: the dataset after required transformation % dataset_info: Various informations about the dataset (descriptive statistics and missing observations). % xparam1: initial value of estimated parameters as returned by % set_prior() or loaded from mode-file % hh: hessian matrix at the loaded mode (or empty matrix) % M_: structure storing the model information % options_: structure storing the options % oo_: structure storing the results % estim_params_: structure storing information about estimated % parameters % bayestopt_: structure storing information about priors % bounds: structure containing prior bounds % % SPECIAL REQUIREMENTS % none % Copyright © 2003-2023 Dynare Team % % This file is part of Dynare. % % Dynare is free software: you can redistribute it and/or modify % it under the terms of the GNU General Public License as published by % the Free Software Foundation, either version 3 of the License, or % (at your option) any later version. % % Dynare is distributed in the hope that it will be useful, % but WITHOUT ANY WARRANTY; without even the implied warranty of % MERCHANTABILITY or FITNESS FOR A PARTICULAR PURPOSE. See the % GNU General Public License for more details. % % You should have received a copy of the GNU General Public License % along with Dynare. If not, see . hh = []; xparam1 = []; if isempty(gsa_flag) gsa_flag = false; else % Decide if a DSGE or DSGE-VAR has to be estimated. if ~isempty(strmatch('dsge_prior_weight', M_.param_names)) options_.dsge_var = 1; end if isempty(var_list_) var_list_ = check_list_of_variables(options_, M_, var_list_); options_.varlist = var_list_; end if gsa_flag % Get the list of the endogenous variables for which posterior statistics wil be computed. options_.varlist = var_list_; else % This was done in dynare_estimation_1 end end if options_.dsge_var && options_.presample~=0 error('DSGE-VAR does not support the presample option.') end % Test if observed variables are declared. if ~isfield(options_,'varobs') error('VAROBS statement is missing!') end % Set the number of observed variables. options_.number_of_observed_variables = length(options_.varobs); % Check that each declared observed variable is also an endogenous variable. for i = 1:options_.number_of_observed_variables id = strmatch(options_.varobs{i}, M_.endo_names, 'exact'); if isempty(id) error(['Unknown variable (' options_.varobs{i} ')!']) end end % Check that a variable is not declared as observed more than once. if length(unique(options_.varobs))1 error(['A variable cannot be declared as observed more than once (' options_.varobs{i} ')!']) end end end if options_.discretionary_policy if options_.order>1 error('discretionary_policy does not support order>1'); else M_=discretionary_policy_initialization(M_,options_); end end % Check the perturbation order for pruning (k order perturbation based nonlinear filters are not yet implemented for k>3). if options_.order>3 && options_.particle.pruning error('Higher order nonlinear filters are not compatible with pruning option.') end % analytical derivation is not yet available for kalman_filter_fast if options_.analytic_derivation && options_.fast_kalman_filter error(['estimation option conflict: analytic_derivation isn''t available ' ... 'for fast_kalman_filter']) end % fast kalman filter is only available with kalman_algo == 0,1,3 if options_.fast_kalman_filter && ~ismember(options_.kalman_algo, [0,1,3]) error(['estimation option conflict: fast_kalman_filter is only available ' ... 'with kalman_algo = 0, 1 or 3']) end % Set options_.lik_init equal to 3 if diffuse filter is used or kalman_algo refers to a diffuse filter algorithm. if isequal(options_.diffuse_filter,1) || (options_.kalman_algo>2) if isequal(options_.lik_init,2) error(['options diffuse_filter, lik_init and/or kalman_algo have contradictory settings']) else options_.lik_init = 3; end end options_=select_qz_criterium_value(options_); % Set options related to filtered variables. if isequal(options_.filtered_vars,0) && ~isempty(options_.filter_step_ahead) options_.filtered_vars = 1; end if ~isequal(options_.filtered_vars,0) && isempty(options_.filter_step_ahead) options_.filter_step_ahead = 1; end if ~isequal(options_.filtered_vars,0) && isequal(options_.filter_step_ahead,0) options_.filter_step_ahead = 1; end if ~isequal(options_.filter_step_ahead,0) options_.nk = max(options_.filter_step_ahead); end % Set the name of the directory where (intermediary) results will be saved. if isempty(dname) M_.dname = M_.fname; else M_.dname = dname; end % Set priors over the estimated parameters. if ~isempty(estim_params_) && ~(isfield(estim_params_,'nvx') && (size(estim_params_.var_exo,1)+size(estim_params_.var_endo,1)+size(estim_params_.corrx,1)+size(estim_params_.corrn,1)+size(estim_params_.param_vals,1))==0) [xparam1,estim_params_,bayestopt_,lb,ub,M_] = set_prior(estim_params_,M_,options_); end if ~isempty(bayestopt_) && any(bayestopt_.pshape==0) && any(bayestopt_.pshape~=0) error('Estimation must be either fully ML or fully Bayesian. Maybe you forgot to specify a prior distribution.') end % Check if a _prior_restrictions.m file exists if exist([M_.fname '_prior_restrictions.m']) options_.prior_restrictions.status = 1; options_.prior_restrictions.routine = str2func([M_.fname '_prior_restrictions']); end % Check that the provided mode_file is compatible with the current estimation settings. if ~isempty(estim_params_) && ~(isfield(estim_params_,'nvx') && sum(estim_params_.nvx+estim_params_.nvn+estim_params_.ncx+estim_params_.ncn+estim_params_.np)==0) && ~isempty(options_.mode_file) && ~options_.mh_posterior_mode_estimation number_of_estimated_parameters = length(xparam1); mode_file = load(options_.mode_file); if number_of_estimated_parameters>length(mode_file.xparam1) % More estimated parameters than parameters in the mode file. skipline() disp(['The posterior mode file ' options_.mode_file ' has been generated using another specification of the model or another model!']) disp(['Your mode file contains estimates for ' int2str(length(mode_file.xparam1)) ' parameters, while you are attempting to estimate ' int2str(number_of_estimated_parameters) ' parameters:']) md = []; xd = []; for i=1:number_of_estimated_parameters id = strmatch(deblank(bayestopt_.name(i,:)),mode_file.parameter_names,'exact'); if isempty(id) disp(['--> Estimated parameter ' bayestopt_.name{i} ' is not present in the loaded mode file (prior mean will be used, if possible).']) else xd = [xd; i]; md = [md; id]; end end for i=1:length(mode_file.xparam1) id = strmatch(mode_file.parameter_names{i},bayestopt_.name,'exact'); if isempty(id) disp(['--> Parameter ' mode_file.parameter_names{i} ' is not estimated according to the current mod file.']) end end if ~options_.mode_compute % The posterior mode is not estimated. error('Please change the mode_file option, the list of estimated parameters or set mode_compute>0.') else % The posterior mode is estimated, the Hessian evaluated at the mode is not needed so we set values for the parameters missing in the mode file using the prior mean. if ~isempty(xd) xparam1(xd) = mode_file.xparam1(md); else error('Please remove the mode_file option.') end end elseif number_of_estimated_parameters Estimated parameter ' deblank(bayestopt_.name(i,:)) ' is not present in the loaded mode file (prior mean will be used, if possible).']) else xd = [xd; i]; md = [md; id]; end end for i=1:length(mode_file.xparam1) id = strmatch(mode_file.parameter_names{i},bayestopt_.name,'exact'); if isempty(id) disp(['--> Parameter ' mode_file.parameter_names{i} ' is not estimated according to the current mod file.']) end end if ~options_.mode_compute % The posterior mode is not estimated. If possible, fix the mode_file. if isequal(length(xd),number_of_estimated_parameters) disp('==> Fix mode file (remove unused parameters).') xparam1 = mode_file.xparam1(md); if isfield(mode_file,'hh') hh = mode_file.hh(md,md); end else error('Please change the mode_file option, the list of estimated parameters or set mode_compute>0.') end else % The posterior mode is estimated, the Hessian evaluated at the mode is not needed so we set values for the parameters missing in the mode file using the prior mean. if ~isempty(xd) xparam1(xd) = mode_file.xparam1(md); else % None of the estimated parameters are present in the mode_file. error('Please remove the mode_file option.') end end else % The number of declared estimated parameters match the number of parameters in the mode file. % Check that the parameters in the mode file and according to the current mod file are identical. if ~isfield(mode_file,'parameter_names') disp(['The posterior mode file ' options_.mode_file ' has been generated using an older version of Dynare. It cannot be verified if it matches the present model. Proceed at your own risk.']) mode_file.parameter_names=deblank(bayestopt_.name); %set names end if isequal(mode_file.parameter_names, bayestopt_.name) xparam1 = mode_file.xparam1; if isfield(mode_file,'hh') hh = mode_file.hh; end else skipline() disp(['The posterior mode file ' options_.mode_file ' has been generated using another specification of the model or another model!']) % Check if this only an ordering issue or if the missing parameters can be initialized with the prior mean. md = []; xd = []; for i=1:number_of_estimated_parameters id = strmatch(deblank(bayestopt_.name(i,:)), mode_file.parameter_names,'exact'); if isempty(id) disp(['--> Estimated parameter ' bayestopt_.name{i} ' is not present in the loaded mode file.']) else xd = [xd; i]; md = [md; id]; end end if ~options_.mode_compute % The posterior mode is not estimated if isequal(length(xd), number_of_estimated_parameters) % This is an ordering issue. xparam1 = mode_file.xparam1(md); if isfield(mode_file,'hh') hh = mode_file.hh(md,md); end else error('Please change the mode_file option, the list of estimated parameters or set mode_compute>0.') end else % The posterior mode is estimated, the Hessian evaluated at the mode is not needed so we set values for the parameters missing in the mode file using the prior mean. if ~isempty(xd) xparam1(xd) = mode_file.xparam1(md); if isfield(mode_file,'hh') hh(xd,xd) = mode_file.hh(md,md); end else % None of the estimated parameters are present in the mode_file. error('Please remove the mode_file option.') end end end end skipline() end %check for calibrated covariances before updating parameters if ~isempty(estim_params_) && ~(isfield(estim_params_,'nvx') && sum(estim_params_.nvx+estim_params_.nvn+estim_params_.ncx+estim_params_.ncn+estim_params_.np)==0) estim_params_=check_for_calibrated_covariances(xparam1,estim_params_,M_); end %%read out calibration that was set in mod-file and can be used for initialization xparam1_calib=get_all_parameters(estim_params_,M_); %get calibrated parameters if ~any(isnan(xparam1_calib)) %all estimated parameters are calibrated estim_params_.full_calibration_detected=1; else estim_params_.full_calibration_detected=0; end if options_.use_calibration_initialization %set calibration as starting values if ~isempty(bayestopt_) && all(bayestopt_.pshape==0) && any(all(isnan([xparam1_calib xparam1]),2)) error('Estimation: When using the use_calibration option with ML, the parameters must be properly initialized.') else [xparam1,estim_params_]=do_parameter_initialization(estim_params_,xparam1_calib,xparam1); %get explicitly initialized parameters that have precedence to calibrated values end end if ~isempty(bayestopt_) && all(bayestopt_.pshape==0) && any(isnan(xparam1)) error('ML estimation requires all estimated parameters to be initialized, either in an estimated_params or estimated_params_init-block ') end if ~isempty(estim_params_) && ~(all(strcmp(fieldnames(estim_params_),'full_calibration_detected')) || (isfield(estim_params_,'nvx') && sum(estim_params_.nvx+estim_params_.nvn+estim_params_.ncx+estim_params_.ncn+estim_params_.np)==0)) if ~isempty(bayestopt_) && any(bayestopt_.pshape > 0) % Plot prior densities. if ~options_.nograph && options_.plot_priors plot_priors(bayestopt_,M_,estim_params_,options_) end % Set prior bounds bounds = prior_bounds(bayestopt_, options_.prior_trunc); bounds.lb = max(bounds.lb,lb); bounds.ub = min(bounds.ub,ub); else % estimated parameters but no declared priors % No priors are declared so Dynare will estimate the model by % maximum likelihood with inequality constraints for the parameters. options_.mh_replic = 0;% No metropolis. bounds.lb = lb; bounds.ub = ub; end % Test if initial values of the estimated parameters are all between the prior lower and upper bounds. if options_.use_calibration_initialization try check_prior_bounds(xparam1,bounds,M_,estim_params_,options_,bayestopt_) catch e = lasterror(); fprintf('Cannot use parameter values from calibration as they violate the prior bounds.') rethrow(e); end else check_prior_bounds(xparam1,bounds,M_,estim_params_,options_,bayestopt_) end end if isempty(estim_params_) || all(strcmp(fieldnames(estim_params_),'full_calibration_detected')) || (isfield(estim_params_,'nvx') && sum(estim_params_.nvx+estim_params_.nvn+estim_params_.ncx+estim_params_.ncn+estim_params_.np)==0) % If estim_params_ is empty (e.g. when running the smoother on a calibrated model) if ~options_.smoother error('Estimation: the ''estimated_params'' block is mandatory (unless you are running a smoother)') end xparam1 = []; bayestopt_.jscale = []; bayestopt_.pshape = []; bayestopt_.name =[]; bayestopt_.p1 = []; bayestopt_.p2 = []; bayestopt_.p3 = []; bayestopt_.p4 = []; bayestopt_.p5 = []; bayestopt_.p6 = []; bayestopt_.p7 = []; estim_params_.var_exo=[]; estim_params_.var_endo=[]; estim_params_.corrx=[]; estim_params_.corrn=[]; estim_params_.param_vals=[]; estim_params_.nvx = 0; estim_params_.nvn = 0; estim_params_.ncx = 0; estim_params_.ncn = 0; estim_params_.np = 0; bounds.lb = []; bounds.ub = []; end % storing prior parameters in results oo_.prior.mean = bayestopt_.p1; oo_.prior.mode = bayestopt_.p5; oo_.prior.variance = diag(bayestopt_.p2.^2); oo_.prior.hyperparameters.first = bayestopt_.p6; oo_.prior.hyperparameters.second = bayestopt_.p7; % Is there a linear trend in the measurement equation? if ~isfield(options_,'trend_coeffs') % No! bayestopt_.with_trend = 0; else% Yes! bayestopt_.with_trend = 1; bayestopt_.trend_coeff = {}; for i=1:options_.number_of_observed_variables if i > length(options_.trend_coeffs) bayestopt_.trend_coeff{i} = '0'; else bayestopt_.trend_coeff{i} = options_.trend_coeffs{i}; end end end % Get informations about the variables of the model. dr = set_state_space(oo_.dr,M_,options_); oo_.dr = dr; nstatic = M_.nstatic; % Number of static variables. npred = M_.nspred; % Number of predetermined variables. nspred = M_.nspred; % Number of predetermined variables in the state equation. %% Setting restricted state space (observed + predetermined variables) % oo_.dr.restrict_var_list: location of union of observed and state variables in decision rules (decision rule order) % bayestopt_.mfys: position of observables in oo_.dr.ys (declaration order) % bayestopt_.mf0: position of state variables in restricted state vector (oo_.dr.restrict_var_list) % bayestopt_.mf1: positions of observed variables in restricted state vector (oo_.dr.restrict_var_list order) % bayestopt_.mf2: positions of observed variables in decision rules/expanded state vector (decision rule order) % bayestopt_.smoother_var_list: positions of observed variables and requested smoothed variables in decision rules (decision rule order) % bayestopt_.smoother_saved_var_list: positions of requested smoothed variables in bayestopt_.smoother_var_list % bayestopt_.smoother_restrict_columns: positions of states in observed variables and requested smoothed variables in decision rules (decision rule order) % bayestopt_.smoother_mf: positions of observed variables and requested smoothed variables in bayestopt_.smoother_var_list var_obs_index_dr = []; k1 = []; for i=1:options_.number_of_observed_variables var_obs_index_dr = [var_obs_index_dr; strmatch(options_.varobs{i}, M_.endo_names(dr.order_var), 'exact')]; k1 = [k1; strmatch(options_.varobs{i}, M_.endo_names, 'exact')]; end k3 = []; k3p = []; if options_.selected_variables_only if options_.forecast > 0 && options_.mh_replic == 0 && ~options_.load_mh_file fprintf('\nEstimation: The selected_variables_only option is incompatible with classical forecasts. It will be ignored.\n') k3 = (1:M_.endo_nbr)'; k3p = (1:M_.endo_nbr)'; else for i=1:length(var_list_) k3 = [k3; strmatch(var_list_{i}, M_.endo_names(dr.order_var), 'exact')]; k3p = [k3; strmatch(var_list_{i}, M_.endo_names, 'exact')]; end end else k3 = (1:M_.endo_nbr)'; k3p = (1:M_.endo_nbr)'; end % Define union of observed and state variables k2 = union(var_obs_index_dr,[M_.nstatic+1:M_.nstatic+M_.nspred]', 'rows'); % Set restrict_state to postion of observed + state variables in expanded state vector. oo_.dr.restrict_var_list = k2; % set mf0 to positions of state variables in restricted state vector for likelihood computation. [~,bayestopt_.mf0] = ismember([M_.nstatic+1:M_.nstatic+M_.nspred]',k2); % Set mf1 to positions of observed variables in restricted state vector for likelihood computation. [~,bayestopt_.mf1] = ismember(var_obs_index_dr,k2); % Set mf2 to positions of observed variables in expanded state vector for filtering and smoothing. bayestopt_.mf2 = var_obs_index_dr; bayestopt_.mfys = k1; [~,ic] = intersect(k2,nstatic+(1:npred)'); oo_.dr.restrict_columns = [ic; length(k2)+(1:nspred-npred)']; bayestopt_.smoother_var_list = union(k2,k3); [~,~,bayestopt_.smoother_saved_var_list] = intersect(k3,bayestopt_.smoother_var_list(:)); [~,ic] = intersect(bayestopt_.smoother_var_list,nstatic+(1:npred)'); bayestopt_.smoother_restrict_columns = ic; [~,bayestopt_.smoother_mf] = ismember(var_obs_index_dr, bayestopt_.smoother_var_list); if options_.analytic_derivation if options_.lik_init == 3 error('analytic derivation is incompatible with diffuse filter') end options_.analytic_derivation = 1; if estim_params_.np || isfield(options_,'identification_check_endogenous_params_with_no_prior') % check if steady state changes param values M=M_; if isfield(options_,'identification_check_endogenous_params_with_no_prior') M.params = M.params*1.01; %vary parameters else M.params(estim_params_.param_vals(:,1)) = xparam1(estim_params_.nvx+estim_params_.ncx+estim_params_.nvn+estim_params_.ncn+1:end); %set parameters M.params(estim_params_.param_vals(:,1)) = M.params(estim_params_.param_vals(:,1))*1.01; %vary parameters end if options_.diffuse_filter || options_.steadystate.nocheck steadystate_check_flag = 0; else steadystate_check_flag = 1; end [tmp1, params] = evaluate_steady_state(oo_.steady_state,M,options_,oo_,steadystate_check_flag); change_flag=any(find(params-M.params)); if change_flag skipline() if any(isnan(params)) disp('After computing the steadystate, the following parameters are still NaN: '), disp(char(M.param_names(isnan(params)))) end if any(find(params(~isnan(params))-M.params(~isnan(params)))) disp('The steadystate file changed the values for the following parameters: '), disp(char(M.param_names(find(params(~isnan(params))-M.params(~isnan(params)))))) end disp('The derivatives of jacobian and steady-state will be computed numerically'), disp('(re-set options_.analytic_derivation_mode= -2)'), options_.analytic_derivation_mode= -2; end end end % If jscale isn't specified for an estimated parameter, use global option options_.jscale, set to optimal value for a normal distribution by default. % Note that check_posterior_sampler_options and mode_compute=6 may overwrite the setting if isempty(options_.mh_jscale) options_.mh_jscale=2.38/sqrt(length(xparam1)); end k = find(isnan(bayestopt_.jscale)); bayestopt_.jscale(k) = options_.mh_jscale; % Build the dataset if ~isempty(options_.datafile) [pathstr,name,ext] = fileparts(options_.datafile); if strcmp(name,M_.fname) error('Data-file and mod-file are not allowed to have the same name. Please change the name of the data file.') end end if isnan(options_.first_obs) options_.first_obs=1; end [dataset_, dataset_info, newdatainterfaceflag] = makedataset(options_, options_.dsge_var*options_.dsge_varlag, gsa_flag); %set options for old interface from the ones for new interface if ~isempty(dataset_) options_.nobs = dataset_.nobs; if options_.endogenous_prior if dataset_info.missing.no_more_missing_observations=options_.first_obs); M_.heteroskedastic_shocks.Qvalue(v.exo_id, temp_periods-(options_.first_obs-1)) = v.value^2; end for k=1:length(M_.heteroskedastic_shocks.Qscale_orig) v = M_.heteroskedastic_shocks.Qscale_orig(k); temp_periods=v.periods(v.periods=options_.first_obs); M_.heteroskedastic_shocks.Qscale(v.exo_id, temp_periods-(options_.first_obs-1)) = v.scale^2; end if any(any(~isnan(M_.heteroskedastic_shocks.Qvalue) & ~isnan(M_.heteroskedastic_shocks.Qscale))) fprintf('\ndynare_estimation_init: With the option "heteroskedastic_shocks" you cannot define\n') fprintf('dynare_estimation_init: the scale and the value for the same shock \n') fprintf('dynare_estimation_init: in the same period!\n') error('Scale and value defined for the same shock in the same period with "heteroskedastic_shocks".') end end if (options_.occbin.likelihood.status && options_.occbin.likelihood.inversion_filter) || (options_.occbin.smoother.status && options_.occbin.smoother.inversion_filter) if isempty(options_.occbin.likelihood.IVF_shock_observable_mapping) options_.occbin.likelihood.IVF_shock_observable_mapping=find(diag(M.Sigma_e)~=0); else zero_var_shocks=find(diag(M.Sigma_e)==0); if any(ismember(options_.occbin.likelihood.IVF_shock_observable_mapping,zero_var_shocks)) error('IVF-filter: an observable is mapped to a zero variance shock.') end end end if options_.occbin.smoother.status && options_.occbin.smoother.inversion_filter if ~isempty(options_.nk) fprintf('dynare_estimation_init: the inversion filter does not support filter_step_ahead. Disabling the option.\n') options_.nk=[]; end if options_.filter_covariance fprintf('dynare_estimation_init: the inversion filter does not support filter_covariance. Disabling the option.\n') options_.filter_covariance=false; end if options_.smoothed_state_uncertainty fprintf('dynare_estimation_init: the inversion filter does not support smoothed_state_uncertainty. Disabling the option.\n') options_.smoothed_state_uncertainty=false; end end