function [LIK, lik] = gaussian_mixture_filter(ReducedForm, Y, start, ParticleOptions, ThreadsOptions, DynareOptions, Model) % Evaluates the likelihood of a non-linear model approximating the state % variables distributions with gaussian mixtures. Gaussian Mixture allows reproducing % a wide variety of generalized distributions (when multimodal for instance). % Each gaussian distribution is obtained whether % - with a radial-spherical cubature % - with scaled unscented sigma-points % A Sparse grid Kalman Filter is implemented on each component of the mixture, % which confers it a weight about current information. % Information on the current observables is then embodied in the proposal % distribution in which we draw particles, which allows % - reaching a greater precision relatively to a standard particle filter, % - reducing the number of particles needed, % - still being faster. % % % INPUTS % reduced_form_model [structure] Matlab's structure describing the reduced form model. % reduced_form_model.measurement.H [double] (pp x pp) variance matrix of measurement errors. % reduced_form_model.state.Q [double] (qq x qq) variance matrix of state errors. % reduced_form_model.state.dr [structure] output of resol.m. % Y [double] pp*smpl matrix of (detrended) data, where pp is the maximum number of observed variables. % start [integer] scalar, likelihood evaluation starts at 'start'. % % OUTPUTS % LIK [double] scalar, likelihood % lik [double] vector, density of observations in each period. % % REFERENCES % % Van der Meerwe & Wan, Gaussian Mixture Sigma-Point Particle Filters for Sequential % Probabilistic Inference in Dynamic State-Space Models. % Heiss & Winschel, 2010, Journal of Applied Economics. % Winschel & Kratzig, 2010, Econometrica. % % NOTES % The vector "lik" is used to evaluate the jacobian of the likelihood. % Copyright © 2009-2017 Dynare Team % % This file is part of Dynare. % % Dynare is free software: you can redistribute it and/or modify % it under the terms of the GNU General Public License as published by % the Free Software Foundation, either version 3 of the License, or % (at your option) any later version. % % Dynare is distributed in the hope that it will be useful, % but WITHOUT ANY WARRANTY; without even the implied warranty of % MERCHANTABILITY or FITNESS FOR A PARTICULAR PURPOSE. See the % GNU General Public License for more details. % % You should have received a copy of the GNU General Public License % along with Dynare. If not, see . % Set default if isempty(start) start = 1; end mf0 = ReducedForm.mf0; mf1 = ReducedForm.mf1; sample_size = size(Y,2); number_of_state_variables = length(mf0); number_of_observed_variables = length(mf1); number_of_structural_innovations = length(ReducedForm.Q); G = ParticleOptions.mixture_state_variables; % number of GM components in state number_of_particles = ParticleOptions.number_of_particles; % compute gaussian quadrature nodes and weights on states and shocks if ParticleOptions.distribution_approximation.cubature [nodes, weights] = spherical_radial_sigma_points(number_of_state_variables); elseif ParticleOptions.distribution_approximation.unscented [nodes, weights] = unscented_sigma_points(number_of_state_variables, ParticleOptions); else if ~ParticleOptions.distribution_approximation.montecarlo error('This approximation for the proposal is unknown!') end end if ParticleOptions.distribution_approximation.montecarlo set_dynare_seed('default'); end % Get covariance matrices Q = ReducedForm.Q; H = ReducedForm.H; if isempty(H) H = 0; H_lower_triangular_cholesky = 0; else H_lower_triangular_cholesky = reduced_rank_cholesky(H)'; end Q_lower_triangular_cholesky = reduced_rank_cholesky(Q)'; % Initialize mixtures StateWeights = ones(1, G)/G; StateMu = ReducedForm.StateVectorMean; StateSqrtP = zeros(number_of_state_variables, number_of_state_variables, G); temp = reduced_rank_cholesky(ReducedForm.StateVectorVariance)'; StateMu = bsxfun(@plus, StateMu, bsxfun(@times,diag(temp), (-(G-1)/2:1:(G-1)/2))/10); for g=1:G StateSqrtP(:,:,g) = temp/sqrt(G) ; end if ~ParticleOptions.mixture_structural_shocks StructuralShocksMu = zeros(1, number_of_structural_innovations); StructuralShocksWeights = 1; I = 1; StructuralShocksMu = Q_lower_triangular_cholesky*StructuralShocksMu'; StructuralShocksSqrtP = zeros(number_of_structural_innovations, number_of_structural_innovations, I); StructuralShocksSqrtP(:,:,1) = Q_lower_triangular_cholesky; elseif ParticleOptions.mixture_structural_shocks==1 if ParticleOptions.proposal_approximation.cubature [StructuralShocksMu, StructuralShocksWeights] = spherical_radial_sigma_points(number_of_structural_innovations); StructuralShocksWeights = ones(size(StructuralShocksMu, 1), 1)*StructuralShocksWeights; elseif ParticleOptions.proposal_approximation.unscented [StructuralShocksMu, StructuralShocksWeights] = unscented_sigma_points(number_of_structural_innovations, ParticleOptions); else if ~ParticleOptions.distribution_approximation.montecarlo error('This approximation for the proposal is unknown!') end end I = size(StructuralShocksWeights, 1); StructuralShocksMu = Q_lower_triangular_cholesky*StructuralShocksMu'; StructuralShocksSqrtP = zeros(number_of_structural_innovations, number_of_structural_innovations, I); for i=1:I StructuralShocksSqrtP(:,:,i) = Q_lower_triangular_cholesky; end else if ParticleOptions.proposal_approximation.cubature [StructuralShocksMu, StructuralShocksWeights] = spherical_radial_sigma_points(number_of_structural_innovations); StructuralShocksWeights = ones(size(StructuralShocksMu, 1), 1)*StructuralShocksWeights ; elseif ParticleOptions.proposal_approximation.unscented [StructuralShocksMu, StructuralShocksWeights] = unscented_sigma_points(number_of_structural_innovations, ParticleOptions); else if ~ParticleOptions.distribution_approximation.montecarlo error('This approximation for the proposal is unknown!') end end I = size(StructuralShocksWeights, 1); StructuralShocksMu = Q_lower_triangular_cholesky*StructuralShocksMu'; StructuralShocksSqrtP = zeros(number_of_structural_innovations, number_of_structural_innovations, I); for i=1:I StructuralShocksSqrtP(:,:,i) = Q_lower_triangular_cholesky/sqrt(StructuralShocksWeights(i)); end end ObservationShocksWeights = 1; J = 1 ; Gprime = G*I; Gsecond = G*I*J; SampleWeights = ones(Gsecond, 1)/Gsecond; StateWeightsPrior = zeros(1,Gprime); StateMuPrior = zeros(number_of_state_variables,Gprime); StateSqrtPPrior = zeros(number_of_state_variables, number_of_state_variables, Gprime); StateWeightsPost = zeros(1, Gsecond); StateMuPost = zeros(number_of_state_variables, Gsecond); StateSqrtPPost = zeros(number_of_state_variables, number_of_state_variables, Gsecond); const_lik = (2*pi)^(.5*number_of_observed_variables); lik = NaN(sample_size, 1); LIK = NaN; for t=1:sample_size % Build the proposal joint quadratures of Gaussian on states, structural % shocks and observation shocks based on each combination of mixtures for i=1:I for j=1:J for g=1:G gprime = g + (i-1)*G; gsecond = gprime + (j-1)*Gprime; [StateMuPrior(:,gprime), StateSqrtPPrior(:,:,gprime), StateWeightsPrior(1,gprime), ... StateMuPost(:,gsecond), StateSqrtPPost(:,:,gsecond), StateWeightsPost(1,gsecond)] = ... gaussian_mixture_filter_bank(ReducedForm,Y(:,t), StateMu(:,g), StateSqrtP(:,:,g), StateWeights(g),... StructuralShocksMu(:,i), StructuralShocksSqrtP(:,:,i), StructuralShocksWeights(i),... ObservationShocksWeights(j), H, H_lower_triangular_cholesky, const_lik, ... ParticleOptions, ThreadsOptions, DynareOptions, Model); end end end % Normalize weights StateWeightsPrior = StateWeightsPrior/sum(StateWeightsPrior, 2); StateWeightsPost = StateWeightsPost/sum(StateWeightsPost, 2); if ParticleOptions.distribution_approximation.cubature || ParticleOptions.distribution_approximation.unscented for i=1:Gsecond StateParticles = bsxfun(@plus, StateMuPost(:,i), StateSqrtPPost(:,:,i)*nodes'); IncrementalWeights = gaussian_mixture_densities(Y(:,t), StateMuPrior, StateSqrtPPrior, StateWeightsPrior, ... StateMuPost, StateSqrtPPost, StateWeightsPost, StateParticles, H, ... ReducedForm, ThreadsOptions, DynareOptions, Model); SampleWeights(i) = sum(StateWeightsPost(i)*weights.*IncrementalWeights); end SumSampleWeights = sum(SampleWeights); lik(t) = log(SumSampleWeights); SampleWeights = SampleWeights./SumSampleWeights; [~, SortedRandomIndx] = sort(rand(1,Gsecond)); SortedRandomIndx = SortedRandomIndx(1:G); indx = resample(0,SampleWeights,ParticleOptions); indx = indx(SortedRandomIndx); StateMu = StateMuPost(:,indx); StateSqrtP = StateSqrtPPost(:,:,indx); StateWeights = ones(1,G)/G; else % Sample particle in the proposal distribution, ie the posterior state GM StateParticles = importance_sampling(StateMuPost,StateSqrtPPost,StateWeightsPost',number_of_particles); IncrementalWeights = gaussian_mixture_densities(Y(:,t), StateMuPrior, StateSqrtPPrior, StateWeightsPrior, ... StateMuPost, StateSqrtPPost, StateWeightsPost, StateParticles, H, ... ReducedForm, ThreadsOptions, DynareOptions, Model); SampleWeights = IncrementalWeights/number_of_particles; SumSampleWeights = sum(SampleWeights,1); SampleWeights = SampleWeights./SumSampleWeights; lik(t) = log(SumSampleWeights); if (ParticleOptions.resampling.status.generic && neff(SampleWeights)