function [dr, info] = stochastic_solvers(dr, task, M_, options_, oo_) % Computes the reduced form solution of a rational expectations model (first, second or third % order approximation of the stochastic model around the deterministic steady state). % % INPUTS % - dr [struct] Decision rules for stochastic simulations. % - task [integer] scalar, if task = 0 then decision rules are computed and if task = 1 then only eigenvales are computed. % - M_ [struct] Definition of the model. % - options_ [struct] Options. % - oo_ [struct] Results % % OUTPUTS % - dr [struct] Decision rules for stochastic simulations. % - info [integer] scalar, error code: % % info=1 -> the model doesn't define current variables uniquely % info=2 -> problem in mjdgges.dll info(2) contains error code. % info=3 -> BK order condition not satisfied info(2) contains "distance" % absence of stable trajectory. % info=4 -> BK order condition not satisfied info(2) contains "distance" % indeterminacy. % info=5 -> BK rank condition not satisfied. % info=6 -> The jacobian matrix evaluated at the steady state is complex. % info=9 -> k_order_pert was unable to compute the solution % Copyright (C) 1996-2020 Dynare Team % % This file is part of Dynare. % % Dynare is free software: you can redistribute it and/or modify % it under the terms of the GNU General Public License as published by % the Free Software Foundation, either version 3 of the License, or % (at your option) any later version. % % Dynare is distributed in the hope that it will be useful, % but WITHOUT ANY WARRANTY; without even the implied warranty of % MERCHANTABILITY or FITNESS FOR A PARTICULAR PURPOSE. See the % GNU General Public License for more details. % % You should have received a copy of the GNU General Public License % along with Dynare. If not, see . info = 0; if options_.linear options_.order = 1; end local_order = options_.order; if local_order~=1 && M_.hessian_eq_zero local_order = 1; warning('stochastic_solvers: using order = 1 because Hessian is equal to zero'); end if options_.order>2 && ~options_.k_order_solver error('You need to set k_order_solver for order>2') end if options_.aim_solver && (local_order > 1) error('Option "aim_solver" is incompatible with order >= 2') end if M_.maximum_endo_lag == 0 if local_order >= 2 fprintf('\nSTOCHASTIC_SOLVER: Dynare does not solve purely forward models at higher order.\n') fprintf('STOCHASTIC_SOLVER: To circumvent this restriction, you can add a backward-looking dummy equation of the form:\n') fprintf('STOCHASTIC_SOLVER: junk=0.9*junk(-1);\n') error(['2nd and 3rd order approximation not implemented for purely ' ... 'forward models']) end if M_.exo_det_nbr~=0 fprintf('\nSTOCHASTIC_SOLVER: Dynare does not solve purely forward models with var_exo_det.\n') fprintf('STOCHASTIC_SOLVER: To circumvent this restriction, you can add a backward-looking dummy equation of the form:\n') fprintf('STOCHASTIC_SOLVER: junk=0.9*junk(-1);\n') error(['var_exo_det not implemented for purely forward models']) end end if M_.maximum_endo_lead==0 && M_.exo_det_nbr~=0 fprintf('\nSTOCHASTIC_SOLVER: Dynare does not solve purely backward models with var_exo_det.\n') fprintf('STOCHASTIC_SOLVER: To circumvent this restriction, you can add a foward-looking dummy equation of the form:\n') fprintf('STOCHASTIC_SOLVER: junk=0.9*junk(+1);\n') error(['var_exo_det not implemented for purely backwards models']) end if options_.k_order_solver if options_.risky_steadystate [dr,info] = dyn_risky_steadystate_solver(oo_.steady_state,M_,dr, ... options_,oo_); else orig_order = options_.order; options_.order = local_order; dr = set_state_space(dr,M_,options_); [dr,info] = k_order_pert(dr,M_,options_); options_.order = orig_order; end return end klen = M_.maximum_lag + M_.maximum_lead + 1; exo_simul = [repmat(oo_.exo_steady_state',klen,1) repmat(oo_.exo_det_steady_state',klen,1)]; iyv = M_.lead_lag_incidence'; iyv = iyv(:); iyr0 = find(iyv) ; if M_.exo_nbr == 0 oo_.exo_steady_state = [] ; end it_ = M_.maximum_lag + 1; z = repmat(dr.ys,1,klen); if local_order == 1 if (options_.bytecode) [~, loc_dr] = bytecode('dynamic','evaluate', z,exo_simul, ... M_.params, dr.ys, 1); jacobia_ = [loc_dr.g1 loc_dr.g1_x loc_dr.g1_xd]; else [~,jacobia_] = feval([M_.fname '.dynamic'],z(iyr0),exo_simul, ... M_.params, dr.ys, it_); end elseif local_order == 2 if (options_.bytecode) [~, loc_dr] = bytecode('dynamic','evaluate', z,exo_simul, ... M_.params, dr.ys, 1); jacobia_ = [loc_dr.g1 loc_dr.g1_x]; else [~,jacobia_,hessian1] = feval([M_.fname '.dynamic'],z(iyr0),... exo_simul, ... M_.params, dr.ys, it_); end if options_.use_dll % In USE_DLL mode, the hessian is in the 3-column sparse representation hessian1 = sparse(hessian1(:,1), hessian1(:,2), hessian1(:,3), ... size(jacobia_, 1), size(jacobia_, 2)*size(jacobia_, 2)); end [infrow,infcol]=find(isinf(hessian1)); if options_.debug if ~isempty(infrow) fprintf('\nSTOCHASTIC_SOLVER: The Hessian of the dynamic model contains Inf.\n') fprintf('STOCHASTIC_SOLVER: Try running model_diagnostics to find the source of the problem.\n') save([M_.fname '_debug.mat'],'hessian1') end end if ~isempty(infrow) info(1)=11; return end [nanrow,nancol]=find(isnan(hessian1)); if options_.debug if ~isempty(nanrow) fprintf('\nSTOCHASTIC_SOLVER: The Hessian of the dynamic model contains NaN.\n') fprintf('STOCHASTIC_SOLVER: Try running model_diagnostics to find the source of the problem.\n') save([M_.fname '_debug.mat'],'hessian1') end end if ~isempty(nanrow) info(1)=12; return end end [infrow,infcol]=find(isinf(jacobia_)); if options_.debug if ~isempty(infrow) fprintf('\nSTOCHASTIC_SOLVER: The Jacobian of the dynamic model contains Inf. The problem is associated with:\n\n') display_problematic_vars_Jacobian(infrow,infcol,M_,dr.ys,'dynamic','STOCHASTIC_SOLVER: ') save([M_.fname '_debug.mat'],'jacobia_') end end if ~isempty(infrow) info(1)=10; return end if ~isreal(jacobia_) if max(max(abs(imag(jacobia_)))) < 1e-15 jacobia_ = real(jacobia_); else if options_.debug [imagrow,imagcol]=find(abs(imag(jacobia_))>1e-15); fprintf('\nMODEL_DIAGNOSTICS: The Jacobian of the dynamic model contains imaginary parts. The problem arises from: \n\n') display_problematic_vars_Jacobian(imagrow,imagcol,M_,dr.ys,'dynamic','STOCHASTIC_SOLVER: ') end info(1) = 6; info(2) = sum(sum(imag(jacobia_).^2)); return end end [nanrow,nancol]=find(isnan(jacobia_)); if options_.debug if ~isempty(nanrow) fprintf('\nSTOCHASTIC_SOLVER: The Jacobian of the dynamic model contains NaN. The problem is associated with:\n\n') display_problematic_vars_Jacobian(nanrow,nancol,M_,dr.ys,'dynamic','STOCHASTIC_SOLVER: ') save([M_.fname '_debug.mat'],'jacobia_') end end if ~isempty(nanrow) info(1) = 8; NaN_params=find(isnan(M_.params)); info(2:length(NaN_params)+1) = NaN_params; return end kstate = dr.kstate; nstatic = M_.nstatic; nfwrd = M_.nfwrd; nspred = M_.nspred; nboth = M_.nboth; nsfwrd = M_.nsfwrd; order_var = dr.order_var; nd = size(kstate,1); nz = nnz(M_.lead_lag_incidence); sdyn = M_.endo_nbr - nstatic; [~,cols_b,cols_j] = find(M_.lead_lag_incidence(M_.maximum_endo_lag+1, ... order_var)); b = zeros(M_.endo_nbr,M_.endo_nbr); b(:,cols_b) = jacobia_(:,cols_j); if M_.maximum_endo_lead == 0 % backward models: simplified code exist only at order == 1 if local_order == 1 [k1,~,k2] = find(kstate(:,4)); dr.ghx(:,k1) = -b\jacobia_(:,k2); if M_.exo_nbr dr.ghu = -b\jacobia_(:,nz+1:end); end dr.eigval = eig(kalman_transition_matrix(dr,nstatic+(1:nspred),1:nspred,M_.exo_nbr)); dr.full_rank = 1; dr.edim = nnz(abs(dr.eigval) > options_.qz_criterium); dr.sdim = nd-dr.edim; if dr.edim temp = sort(abs(dr.eigval)); temp = temp(dr.sdim+1:nd)-1-options_.qz_criterium; info(1) = 3; info(2) = temp'*temp; end else fprintf('\nSTOCHASTIC_SOLVER: Dynare does not solve purely backward models at higher order.\n') fprintf('STOCHASTIC_SOLVER: To circumvent this restriction, you can add a forward-looking dummy equation of the form:\n') fprintf('STOCHASTIC_SOLVER: junk=0.9*junk(+1);\n') error(['2nd and 3rd order approximation not implemented for purely ' ... 'backward models']) end elseif options_.risky_steadystate orig_order = options_.order; options_.order = local_order; [dr,info] = dyn_risky_steadystate_solver(oo_.steady_state,M_,dr, ... options_,oo_); options_.order = orig_order; else % If required, use AIM solver if not check only if options_.aim_solver && (task == 0) [dr,info] = AIM_first_order_solver(jacobia_,M_,dr,options_.qz_criterium); else % use original Dynare solver [dr,info] = dyn_first_order_solver(jacobia_,M_,dr,options_,task); if info(1) || task return end end if local_order > 1 % Second order dr = dyn_second_order_solver(jacobia_,hessian1,dr,M_,... options_.threads.kronecker.sparse_hessian_times_B_kronecker_C); % reordering second order derivatives, used for deterministic % variables below k1 = nonzeros(M_.lead_lag_incidence(:,order_var)'); kk = [k1; length(k1)+(1:M_.exo_nbr+M_.exo_det_nbr)']; nk = size(kk,1); kk1 = reshape([1:nk^2],nk,nk); kk1 = kk1(kk,kk); hessian1 = hessian1(:,kk1(:)); end end %exogenous deterministic variables if M_.exo_det_nbr > 0 gx = dr.gx; f1 = sparse(jacobia_(:,nonzeros(M_.lead_lag_incidence(M_.maximum_endo_lag+2:end,order_var)))); f0 = sparse(jacobia_(:,nonzeros(M_.lead_lag_incidence(M_.maximum_endo_lag+1,order_var)))); fudet = sparse(jacobia_(:,nz+M_.exo_nbr+1:end)); M1 = inv(f0+[zeros(M_.endo_nbr,nstatic) f1*gx zeros(M_.endo_nbr,nsfwrd-nboth)]); M2 = M1*f1; dr.ghud = cell(M_.exo_det_length,1); dr.ghud{1} = -M1*fudet; for i = 2:M_.exo_det_length dr.ghud{i} = -M2*dr.ghud{i-1}(end-nsfwrd+1:end,:); end if local_order > 1 lead_lag_incidence = M_.lead_lag_incidence; k0 = find(lead_lag_incidence(M_.maximum_endo_lag+1,order_var)'); k1 = find(lead_lag_incidence(M_.maximum_endo_lag+2,order_var)'); hu = dr.ghu(nstatic+[1:nspred],:); hud = dr.ghud{1}(nstatic+1:nstatic+nspred,:); zx = [eye(nspred);dr.ghx(k0,:);gx*dr.Gy;zeros(M_.exo_nbr+M_.exo_det_nbr, ... nspred)]; zu = [zeros(nspred,M_.exo_nbr); dr.ghu(k0,:); gx*hu; zeros(M_.exo_nbr+M_.exo_det_nbr, ... M_.exo_nbr)]; zud=[zeros(nspred,M_.exo_det_nbr);dr.ghud{1};gx(:,1:nspred)*hud;zeros(M_.exo_nbr,M_.exo_det_nbr);eye(M_.exo_det_nbr)]; R1 = hessian1*kron(zx,zud); dr.ghxud = cell(M_.exo_det_length,1); kf = [M_.endo_nbr-nfwrd-nboth+1:M_.endo_nbr]; kp = nstatic+[1:nspred]; dr.ghxud{1} = -M1*(R1+f1*dr.ghxx(kf,:)*kron(dr.ghx(kp,:),dr.ghud{1}(kp,:))); Eud = eye(M_.exo_det_nbr); for i = 2:M_.exo_det_length hudi = dr.ghud{i}(kp,:); zudi=[zeros(nspred,M_.exo_det_nbr);dr.ghud{i};gx(:,1:nspred)*hudi;zeros(M_.exo_nbr+M_.exo_det_nbr,M_.exo_det_nbr)]; R2 = hessian1*kron(zx,zudi); dr.ghxud{i} = -M2*(dr.ghxud{i-1}(kf,:)*kron(dr.Gy,Eud)+dr.ghxx(kf,:)*kron(dr.ghx(kp,:),dr.ghud{i}(kp,:)))-M1*R2; end R1 = hessian1*kron(zu,zud); dr.ghudud = cell(M_.exo_det_length,1); dr.ghuud{1} = -M1*(R1+f1*dr.ghxx(kf,:)*kron(dr.ghu(kp,:),dr.ghud{1}(kp,:))); Eud = eye(M_.exo_det_nbr); for i = 2:M_.exo_det_length hudi = dr.ghud{i}(kp,:); zudi=[zeros(nspred,M_.exo_det_nbr);dr.ghud{i};gx(:,1:nspred)*hudi;zeros(M_.exo_nbr+M_.exo_det_nbr,M_.exo_det_nbr)]; R2 = hessian1*kron(zu,zudi); dr.ghuud{i} = -M2*dr.ghxud{i-1}(kf,:)*kron(hu,Eud)-M1*R2; end R1 = hessian1*kron(zud,zud); dr.ghudud = cell(M_.exo_det_length,M_.exo_det_length); dr.ghudud{1,1} = -M1*R1-M2*dr.ghxx(kf,:)*kron(hud,hud); for i = 2:M_.exo_det_length hudi = dr.ghud{i}(nstatic+1:nstatic+nspred,:); zudi=[zeros(nspred,M_.exo_det_nbr);dr.ghud{i};gx(:,1:nspred)*hudi+dr.ghud{i-1}(kf,:);zeros(M_.exo_nbr+M_.exo_det_nbr,M_.exo_det_nbr)]; R2 = hessian1*kron(zudi,zudi); dr.ghudud{i,i} = -M2*(dr.ghudud{i-1,i-1}(kf,:)+... 2*dr.ghxud{i-1}(kf,:)*kron(hudi,Eud) ... +dr.ghxx(kf,:)*kron(hudi,hudi))-M1*R2; R2 = hessian1*kron(zud,zudi); dr.ghudud{1,i} = -M2*(dr.ghxud{i-1}(kf,:)*kron(hud,Eud)+... dr.ghxx(kf,:)*kron(hud,hudi))... -M1*R2; for j=2:i-1 hudj = dr.ghud{j}(kp,:); zudj=[zeros(nspred,M_.exo_det_nbr);dr.ghud{j};gx(:,1:nspred)*hudj;zeros(M_.exo_nbr+M_.exo_det_nbr,M_.exo_det_nbr)]; R2 = hessian1*kron(zudj,zudi); dr.ghudud{j,i} = -M2*(dr.ghudud{j-1,i-1}(kf,:)+dr.ghxud{j-1}(kf,:)* ... kron(hudi,Eud)+dr.ghxud{i-1}(kf,:)* ... kron(hudj,Eud)+dr.ghxx(kf,:)*kron(hudj,hudi))-M1*R2; end end end end if options_.loglinear % this needs to be extended for order=2,3 [il,il1,ik,k1] = indices_lagged_leaded_exogenous_variables(dr.order_var,M_); [illag,illag1,iklag,klag1] = indices_lagged_leaded_exogenous_variables(dr.order_var(M_.nstatic+(1:M_.nspred)),M_); if ~isempty(ik) if M_.nspred > 0 dr.ghx(ik,iklag) = repmat(1./dr.ys(k1),1,length(klag1)).*dr.ghx(ik,iklag).* ... repmat(dr.ys(klag1)',length(ik),1); dr.ghx(ik,illag) = repmat(1./dr.ys(k1),1,length(illag)).*dr.ghx(ik,illag); end if M_.exo_nbr > 0 dr.ghu(ik,:) = repmat(1./dr.ys(k1),1,M_.exo_nbr).*dr.ghu(ik,:); end end if ~isempty(il) && M_.nspred > 0 dr.ghx(il,iklag) = dr.ghx(il,iklag).*repmat(dr.ys(klag1)', ... length(il),1); end if local_order > 1 error('Loglinear options currently only works at order 1') end end end