function ms_sbvar_setup(options_) % function ms_sbvar_setup(options_) % does the general file initialization for ms sbvar % % INPUTS % options_: (struct) options % % OUTPUTS % none % % SPECIAL REQUIREMENTS % none % Copyright (C) 2003-2020 Dynare Team % % This file is part of Dynare. % % Dynare is free software: you can redistribute it and/or modify % it under the terms of the GNU General Public License as published by % the Free Software Foundation, either version 3 of the License, or % (at your option) any later version. % % Dynare is distributed in the hope that it will be useful, % but WITHOUT ANY WARRANTY; without even the implied warranty of % MERCHANTABILITY or FITNESS FOR A PARTICULAR PURPOSE. See the % GNU General Public License for more details. % % You should have received a copy of the GNU General Public License % along with Dynare. If not, see . options_.data = read_variables(options_.datafile, ... options_.varobs, [], options_.xls_sheet, options_.xls_range); [options_.ms.final_year,options_.ms.final_subperiod] = check_datafile_years_assigned(options_); if options_.ms.upper_cholesky if options_.ms.lower_cholesky error(['Upper Cholesky and lower Cholesky decomposition can''t be ' ... 'requested at the same time!']) else options_.ms.restriction_fname = 'upper_cholesky'; end elseif options_.ms.lower_cholesky options_.ms.restriction_fname = 'lower_cholesky'; elseif ~isempty(options_.ms.Qi) && ~isempty(options_.ms.Ri) options_.ms.restriction_fname = 'exclusions'; else options_.ms.restriction_fname = 0; end %========================================================================== %== Markov Process Specification File %========================================================================== markov_file = [options_.ms.output_file_tag '_markov_file.dat']; %========================================================================== %== BVAR prior %========================================================================== %=== The following mu is effective only if indxPrior==1. %mu = zeros(6,1); % hyperparameters if length(options_.ms.coefficients_prior_hyperparameters) ~= 6 error('When specifying the coefficients_prior_hyperparameters, you must pass a vector of 6 numbers') end mu = options_.ms.coefficients_prior_hyperparameters; mu = reshape(mu,1,6); % mu(1): overall tightness for A0 and Aplus % mu(2): relative tightness for Aplus % mu(3): relative tightness for the constant term % mu(4): tightness on lag decay. (1.2 - 1.5 faster decay produces better % inflation forecasts % mu(5): weight on nvar sums of coeffs dummy observations (unit roots). % mu(6): weight on single dummy initial observation including constant % (cointegration, unit roots, and stationarity). % Alpha on p. 66 for squared time-varying structural shock lambda. galp = options_.ms.alpha; % Beta on p. 66 for squared time-varying structural shock lambda. gbeta = options_.ms.beta; % Case 3 (no state change across options_.ms.nlags (l) but allows all variables for a % given lag to switch states). Normal prior variance for glamda % (nvar-by-nvar for each state) for different variables in lagged D+. See % p.71v. gsig2_lmdm = options_.ms.gsig2_lmdm; %========================================================================== %== Data %========================================================================== % Read in data to produce rectangular array named xdd. Each column is one % data series. xdd=options_.data; % Information about timing of the data for consistancy checks % quarters (4) or months (12) q_m = options_.ms.freq; % beginning year in data set yrBin=options_.ms.initial_year; % beginning quarter or month in data set %options_.ms.initial_subperiod = 1; qmBin=options_.ms.initial_subperiod; % final year in data set yrFin=options_.ms.final_year; % final month or quarter in data set qmFin=options_.ms.final_subperiod; % first year to use in estimation yrStart=options_.ms.initial_year; % first quarter or month to use in estimation qmStart=options_.ms.initial_subperiod; % last year to use in estimation yrEnd=options_.ms.final_year; % last quater or month to use in estimation qmEnd=options_.ms.final_subperiod; % Log variables in xdd logindx = []; % Convert percent to decimal in xdd pctindx = []; % Select the variable to use and rearrange columns if desired %vlist = [3 1 2]; %options_.ms.vlist = [1 2 3]; options_.ms.vlist = 1:length(options_.varobs); vlist1=options_.ms.vlist; %========================================================================== %========================================================================== %========================================================================== %== Beginning of code. Modify below at own risk. %========================================================================== % options that may at some point become user specified %indxC0Pres = 0; % 1: cross-A0-and-A+ restrictions; 0: idfile_const is all we have indxC0Pres =options_.ms.cross_restrictions; % Example for indxOres==1: restrictions of the form P(t) = P(t-1). %Rform = 0; % 1: contemporaneous recursive reduced form; 0: restricted (non-recursive) form Rform =options_.ms.contemp_reduced_form; % % % Pseudo = 0; % 1: Pseudo forecasts; 0: real time forecasts %indxPrior = 1; % 1: Bayesian prior; 0: no prior indxPrior =options_.ms.bayesian_prior; %indxDummy = indxPrior; % 1: add dummy observations to the data; 0: no dummy added. indxDummy = options_.ms.bayesian_prior; %ndobs = 0; % No dummy observations for xtx, phi, fss, xdatae, etc. Dummy observations are used as an explicit prior in fn_rnrprior_covres_dobs.m. %ndobs =options_.ms.dummy_obs; %if indxDummy % ndobs=nvar+1; % number of dummy observations %else % ndobs=0; % no dummy observations %end % hpmsmd = [0.0; 0.0]; indxmsmdeqn = [0; 0; 0; 0]; %This option disenable using this in fn_rnrprior_covres_dobs.m nStates = -1; %========================================================================== %== Create initialization file %========================================================================== %====================================================================== %== Check and setup data %====================================================================== % log data xdd(:,logindx) = log(xdd(:,logindx)); % convert percentage to decimal xdd(:,pctindx)=.01*xdd(:,pctindx); if (q_m ~= 12) && (q_m ~= 4) disp('Warning: data must be monthly or quarterly!') return end % number of data points nData=(yrFin-yrBin)*q_m + (qmFin-qmBin+1); % number of data points in estimation sample nSample=(yrEnd-yrStart)*q_m + (qmEnd-qmEnd+1); % number of periods not used at beginning of data (non-negative number) nStart=(yrStart-yrBin)*q_m + (qmStart-qmBin); % number of periods not used at end of data (non-positive number) nEnd=(yrEnd-yrFin)*q_m + (qmEnd-qmFin); if (nEnd > 0) || (nStart < 0) disp('Warning: desired estimation period not in data set!') return end if (nSample <= 0) disp('Warning: no data points in estimation period!') return end % reorder variables and create estimation data set xdgel=xdd(nStart+1:nData+nEnd,vlist1); % bad data points baddata = find(isnan(xdgel)); if ~isempty(baddata) disp('Warning: some data for estimation period are unavailable.') return end % set nvar and nexo nvar=size(xdgel,2); nexo=1; % Arranged data information, WITHOUT dummy obs when 0 after mu is used. % See fn_rnrprior_covres_dobs.m for using the dummy observations as part of % an explicit prior. [xtx,xty,yty,fss,phi,y,ncoef,xr,Bh] = fn_dataxy(nvar,options_.ms.nlags,xdgel,mu,0,nexo); %====================================================================== %== Linear Restrictions %====================================================================== if Rform Ui=cell(nvar,1); Vi=cell(ncoef,1); for kj=1:nvar Ui{kj} = eye(nvar); Vi{kj} = eye(ncoef); end else [Ui,Vi,n0,np,ixmC0Pres] = feval(options_.ms.restriction_fname,nvar,nexo,options_.ms); if min(n0)==0 disp('A0: restrictions give no free parameters in one of equations') return elseif min(np)==0 disp('Aplus: Restrictions in give no free parameters in one of equations') return end end %====================================================================== %== Estimation %====================================================================== if indxPrior %*** Obtains asymmetric prior (with no linear restrictions) with dummy observations as part of an explicit prior (i.e, % reflected in Hpmulti and Hpinvmulti). See Forecast II, pp.69a-69b for details. if 1 % Liquidity effect prior on both MS and MD equations. [Pi,H0multi,Hpmulti,H0invmulti,Hpinvmulti] = fn_rnrprior_covres_dobs(nvar,q_m,options_.ms.nlags,xdgel,mu,indxDummy,hpmsmd,indxmsmdeqn); else [Pi,H0multi,Hpmulti,H0invmulti,Hpinvmulti] = fn_rnrprior(nvar,q_m,options_.ms.nlags,xdgel,mu); end %*** Combines asymmetric prior with linear restrictions [Ptld,H0invtld,Hpinvtld] = fn_rlrprior(Ui,Vi,Pi,H0multi,Hpmulti,nvar); %*** Obtains the posterior matrices for estimation and inference [Pmat,H0inv,Hpinv] = fn_rlrpostr(xtx,xty,yty,Ptld,H0invtld,Hpinvtld,Ui,Vi); else %*** Obtain the posterior matrices for estimation and inference [Pmat,H0inv,Hpinv] = fn_dlrpostr(xtx,xty,yty,Ui,Vi); end if Rform %*** Obtain the ML estimate A0hatinv = chol(H0inv{1}/fss); % upper triangular but lower triangular choleski A0hat=inv(A0hatinv); Aphat = Pmat{1}*A0hat; else %*** Obtain the ML estimate % load idenml x = 10*rand(sum(n0),1); H0 = eye(sum(n0)); crit = 1.0e-9; nit = 10000; % [fhat,xhat,grad,Hhat,itct,fcount,retcodehat] = csminwel('fn_a0freefun',x,H0,'fn_a0freegrad',crit,nit,Ui,nvar,n0,fss,H0inv); A0hat = fn_tran_b2a(xhat,Ui,nvar,n0); xhat = fn_tran_a2b(A0hat,Ui,nvar,n0); [Aphat,ghat] = fn_gfmean(xhat,Pmat,Vi,nvar,ncoef,n0,np); if indxC0Pres Fhatur0P = Fhat; % ur: unrestriced across A0 and A+ for ki = 1:size(ixmC0Pres,1) % loop through the number of equations in which % cross-A0-A+ restrictions occur. See St. Louis Note p.5. ixeq = ixmC0Pres{ki}(1,1); % index for the jth equation in consideration. Lit = Vi{ixeq}(ixmC0Pres{ki}(:,2),:); % transposed restriction matrix Li % V_j(i,:) in f_j(i) = V_j(i,:)*g_j ci = ixmC0Pres{ki}(:,4) .* A0hat(ixmC0Pres{ki}(:,3),ixeq); % s * a_j(h) in the restriction f_j(i) = s * a_j(h). LtH = Lit/Hpinv{ixeq}; HLV = LtH'/(LtH*Lit'); gihat = Vi{ixeq}'*Fhatur0P(:,ixeq); Aphat(:,ixeq) = Vi{ixeq}*(gihat + HLV*(ci-Lit*gihat)); end end end %====================================================================== %== Create matlab initialization file %====================================================================== matlab_filename = ['matlab_',options_.ms.output_file_tag,'.prn']; fidForC = fopen(matlab_filename,'w'); fprintf(fidForC,'\n%s\n','//== gxia: alpha parameter for gamma prior of xi ==//'); fprintf(fidForC,' %20.15f ', galp); fprintf(fidForC, '\n\n'); fprintf(fidForC,'\n%s\n','//== gxib: beta parameter for gamma prior of xi ==//'); fprintf(fidForC,' %20.15f ', gbeta); fprintf(fidForC, '\n\n'); fprintf(fidForC,'\n%s\n','//== glamdasig: sigma parameter for normal prior of lamda ==//'); fprintf(fidForC,' %20.15f ', sqrt(gsig2_lmdm)); fprintf(fidForC, '\n\n'); %=== lags, nvar, nStates, sample size (excluding options_.ms.nlags where, with dummyies, fss=nSample-options_.ms.nlags+ndobs). fprintf(fidForC,'\n%s\n','//== lags, nvar, nStates, T ==//'); fprintf(fidForC,' %d %d %d %d\n\n\n',options_.ms.nlags, nvar, nStates, fss); %=== A0hat nvar-by-nvar from the constant VAR. fprintf(fidForC,'\n%s\n','//== A0hat: nvar-by-nvar ==//'); indxFloat = 1; xM = A0hat; nrows = nvar; ncols = nvar; fn_fprintmatrix(fidForC, xM, nrows, ncols, indxFloat) %=== Aphat ncoef-by-nvar from the constant VAR. %=== Each column of Aphat is in the order of [nvar variables for 1st lag, ..., nvar variables for last lag, constant term]. fprintf(fidForC,'\n%s\n','//== Aphat: ncoef(lags*nvar+1)-by-nvar ==//'); indxFloat = 1; xM = Aphat; nrows = ncoef; ncols = nvar; fn_fprintmatrix(fidForC, xM, nrows, ncols, indxFloat) %=== n0const: nvar-by-1, whose ith element represents the number of free A0 parameters in ith equation for the case of constant parameters. fprintf(fidForC,'\n%s\n','//== n0const: nvar-by-1 ==//'); indxFloat = 0; xM = n0; nrows = 1; ncols = nvar; fn_fprintmatrix(fidForC, xM', nrows, ncols, indxFloat) %=== npconst: nvar-by-1, whose ith element represents the number of free A+ parameters in ith equation for the case of constant parameters. fprintf(fidForC,'\n%s\n','//== npconst: nvar-by-1 ==//'); indxFloat = 0; xM = np; nrows = 1; ncols = nvar; fn_fprintmatrix(fidForC, xM', nrows, ncols, indxFloat) %=== Specification fprintf(fidForC,'\n%s','//== Specification (0=default 1=Sims-Zha 2=Random Walk) ==//'); fprintf(fidForC,'\n%d\n\n',options_.ms.specification); %=== Uiconst: nvar-by-1 cell. In each cell, nvar-by-qi orthonormal basis for the null of the ith % equation contemporaneous restriction matrix where qi is the number of free parameters. % With this transformation, we have ai = Ui*bi or Ui'*ai = bi where ai is a vector % of total original parameters and bi is a vector of free parameters. When no % restrictions are imposed, we have Ui = I. There must be at least one free % parameter left for the ith equation. fprintf(fidForC,'\n%s\n','//== Uiconst: cell(nvar,1) and nvar-by-n0const(i) for the ith cell (equation) ==//'); for i_=1:nvar fn_fprintmatrix(fidForC, Ui{i_}, nvar, n0(i_), 1); end %=== Viconst: nvar-by-1 cell. In each cell, k-by-ri orthonormal basis for the null of the ith % equation lagged restriction matrix where k is a total of exogenous variables and % ri is the number of free parameters. With this transformation, we have fi = Vi*gi % or Vi'*fi = gi where fi is a vector of total original parameters and gi is a % vector of free parameters. There must be at least one free parameter left for % the ith equation. fprintf(fidForC,'\n%s\n','//== Viconst: cell(nvar,1) and ncoef-by-n0const(i) for the ith cell (equation) ==//'); for i_=1:nvar fn_fprintmatrix(fidForC, Vi{i_}, ncoef, np(i_), 1); end %=== H0barconstcell: cell(nvar,1) (equations) and n-by-n for each cell (equaiton). %=== H0barconst: prior covariance matrix for each column of A0 under asymmetric prior (including SZ dummy obs.) with NO linear restrictions imposed yet. fprintf(fidForC,'\n%s\n','//== H0barconstcell: cell(nvar,1) and n-by-n for the ith cell (equation) ==//'); for i_=1:nvar fn_fprintmatrix(fidForC, H0multi(:,:,i_), nvar, nvar, 1); end %=== Hpbarconstcell: cell(nvar,1) (equations) and ncoef-by-ncoef for each cell (equaiton). %=== Hpbarconst: prior covariance matrix for each column of A+ under asymmetric prior (including SZ dummy obs.) with NO linear restrictions imposed yet. fprintf(fidForC,'\n%s\n','//== Hpbarconstcell: cell(nvar,1) and ncoef-by-ncoef for the ith cell (equation) ==//'); for i_=1:nvar fn_fprintmatrix(fidForC, Hpmulti(:,:,i_), ncoef, ncoef, 1); end %=== phi: X; T-by-k; column: [nvar for 1st lag, ..., nvar for last lag, other exogenous terms, const term] fprintf(fidForC,'\n%s\n','//== Xright -- X: T-by-ncoef ==//'); xM = phi; nrows = fss; ncols = ncoef; for ki=1:nrows for kj=1:ncols fprintf(fidForC,' %20.15f ',xM((kj-1)*nrows+ki)); if (kj==ncols) fprintf(fidForC,'\n'); end end if (ki==nrows) fprintf(fidForC,'\n\n'); end end %=== y: Y: T-by-nvar where T=fss fprintf(fidForC,'\n%s\n','//== Yleft -- Y: T-by-nvar ==//'); xM = y; nrows = fss; ncols = nvar; for ki=1:nrows for kj=1:ncols fprintf(fidForC,' %20.15f ',xM((kj-1)*nrows+ki)); if (kj==ncols) fprintf(fidForC,'\n'); end end if (ki==nrows) fprintf(fidForC,'\n\n'); end end fclose(fidForC); %====================================================================== %== Create C initialization filename %====================================================================== ms_write_markov_file(markov_file,options_) create_init_file = [matlab_filename,' ',markov_file,' ',options_.ms.file_tag]; ms_sbvar_create_init_file(create_init_file); end