function [LIK, lik,a,P] = univariate_kalman_filter(data_index,number_of_observations,no_more_missing_observations,Y,start,last,a,P,kalman_tol,riccati_tol,presample,T,Q,R,H,Z,mm,pp,rr,Zflag,diffuse_periods,analytic_derivation,DT,DYss,DOm,DH,DP,D2T,D2Yss,D2Om,D2H,D2P) % Computes the likelihood of a stationnary state space model (univariate approach). %@info: %! @deftypefn {Function File} {[@var{LIK},@var{likk},@var{a},@var{P} ] =} univariate_kalman_filter (@var{data_index}, @var{number_of_observations},@var{no_more_missing_observations}, @var{Y}, @var{start}, @var{last}, @var{a}, @var{P}, @var{kalman_tol}, @var{riccati_tol},@var{presample},@var{T},@var{Q},@var{R},@var{H},@var{Z},@var{mm},@var{pp},@var{rr},@var{Zflag},@var{diffuse_periods}) %! @anchor{univariate_kalman_filter} %! @sp 1 %! Computes the likelihood of a stationary state space model, given initial condition for the states (mean and variance). %! @sp 2 %! @strong{Inputs} %! @sp 1 %! @table @ @var %! @item data_index %! Matlab's cell, 1*T cell of column vectors of indices (in the vector of observed variables). %! @item number_of_observations %! Integer scalar, effective number of observations. %! @item no_more_missing_observations %! Integer scalar, date after which there is no more missing observation (it is then possible to switch to the steady state kalman filter). %! @item Y %! Matrix (@var{pp}*T) of doubles, data. %! @item start %! Integer scalar, first period. %! @item last %! Integer scalar, last period (@var{last}-@var{first} has to be inferior to T). %! @item a %! Vector (@var{mm}*1) of doubles, initial mean of the state vector. %! @item P %! Matrix (@var{mm}*@var{mm}) of doubles, initial covariance matrix of the state vector. %! @item kalman_tol %! Double scalar, tolerance parameter (rcond, inversibility of the covariance matrix of the prediction errors). %! @item riccati_tol %! Double scalar, tolerance parameter (iteration over the Riccati equation). %! @item presample %! Integer scalar, presampling if strictly positive (number of initial iterations to be discarded when evaluating the likelihood). %! @item T %! Matrix (@var{mm}*@var{mm}) of doubles, transition matrix of the state equation. %! @item Q %! Matrix (@var{rr}*@var{rr}) of doubles, covariance matrix of the structural innovations (noise in the state equation). %! @item R %! Matrix (@var{mm}*@var{rr}) of doubles, %! @item H %! Vector (@var{pp}) of doubles, diagonal of covariance matrix of the measurement errors (corelation among measurement errors is handled by a model transformation). %! @item Z %! Matrix (@var{pp}*@var{mm}) of doubles or vector of integers, matrix relating the states to the observed variables or vector of indices (depending on the value of @var{Zflag}). %! @item mm %! Integer scalar, number of state variables. %! @item pp %! Integer scalar, number of observed variables. %! @item rr %! Integer scalar, number of structural innovations. %! @item Zflag %! Integer scalar, equal to 0 if Z is a vector of indices targeting the observed variables in the state vector, equal to 1 if Z is a @var{pp}*@var{mm} matrix. %! @item diffuse_periods %! Integer scalar, number of diffuse filter periods in the initialization step. %! @end table %! @sp 2 %! @strong{Outputs} %! @sp 1 %! @table @ @var %! @item LIK %! Double scalar, value of (minus) the likelihood. %! @item likk %! Column vector of doubles, values of the density of each observation. %! @item a %! Vector (@var{mm}*1) of doubles, mean of the state vector at the end of the (sub)sample. %! @item P %! Matrix (@var{mm}*@var{mm}) of doubles, covariance of the state vector at the end of the (sub)sample. %! @end table %! @sp 2 %! @strong{This function is called by:} %! @sp 1 %! @ref{dsge_likelihood} %! @sp 2 %! @strong{This function calls:} %! @sp 1 %! @ref{univariate_kalman_filter_ss} %! @end deftypefn %@eod: % % Algorithm: % % Uses the univariate filter as described in Durbin/Koopman (2012): "Time % Series Analysis by State Space Methods", Oxford University Press, % Second Edition, Ch. 6.4 + 7.2.5 % Copyright © 2004-2021 Dynare Team % % This file is part of Dynare. % % Dynare is free software: you can redistribute it and/or modify % it under the terms of the GNU General Public License as published by % the Free Software Foundation, either version 3 of the License, or % (at your option) any later version. % % Dynare is distributed in the hope that it will be useful, % but WITHOUT ANY WARRANTY; without even the implied warranty of % MERCHANTABILITY or FITNESS FOR A PARTICULAR PURPOSE. See the % GNU General Public License for more details. % % You should have received a copy of the GNU General Public License % along with Dynare. If not, see . % AUTHOR(S) stephane DOT adjemian AT univ DASH lemans DOT fr if nargin<20 || isempty(Zflag)% Set default value for Zflag ==> Z is a vector of indices. Zflag = 0; diffuse_periods = 0; end if nargin<21 diffuse_periods = 0; end % Get sample size. smpl = last-start+1; % Initialize some variables. isqvec = false; if ndim(Q)>2 Qvec = Q; Q=Q(:,:,1); isqvec = true; end QQ = R*Q*transpose(R); % Variance of R times the vector of structural innovations. t = start; % Initialization of the time index. lik = zeros(smpl,pp); % Initialization of the matrix gathering the densities at each time and each observable LIK = Inf; % Default value of the log likelihood. oldP = Inf; l2pi = log(2*pi); notsteady = 1; oldK = Inf; K = NaN(mm,pp); asy_hess=0; if analytic_derivation == 0 DLIK=[]; Hess=[]; else k = size(DT,3); % number of structural parameters DLIK = zeros(k,1); % Initialization of the score. Da = zeros(mm,k); % Derivative State vector. dlik = zeros(smpl,k); if Zflag==0 C = zeros(pp,mm); for ii=1:pp, C(ii,Z(ii))=1; end % SELECTION MATRIX IN MEASUREMENT EQ. (FOR WHEN IT IS NOT CONSTANT) else C=Z; end dC = zeros(pp,mm,k); % either selection matrix or schur have zero derivatives if analytic_derivation==2 Hess = zeros(k,k); % Initialization of the Hessian D2a = zeros(mm,k,k); % State vector. d2C = zeros(pp,mm,k,k); else asy_hess=D2T; Hess=[]; D2a=[]; D2T=[]; D2Yss=[]; end if asy_hess Hess = zeros(k,k); % Initialization of the Hessian end LIK={inf,DLIK,Hess}; end while notsteady && t<=last %loop over t s = t-start+1; d_index = data_index{t}; if isqvec QQ = R*Qvec(:,:,t+1)*transpose(R); end if Zflag z = Z(d_index,:); else z = Z(d_index); end oldP = P(:); for i=1:rows(z) %loop over i if Zflag prediction_error = Y(d_index(i),t) - z(i,:)*a; % nu_{t,i} in 6.13 in DK (2012) PZ = P*z(i,:)'; % Z_{t,i}*P_{t,i}*Z_{t,i}' Fi = z(i,:)*PZ + H(d_index(i)); % F_{t,i} in 6.13 in DK (2012), relies on H being diagonal else prediction_error = Y(d_index(i),t) - a(z(i)); % nu_{t,i} in 6.13 in DK (2012) PZ = P(:,z(i)); % Z_{t,i}*P_{t,i}*Z_{t,i}' Fi = PZ(z(i)) + H(d_index(i)); % F_{t,i} in 6.13 in DK (2012), relies on H being diagonal end if Fi>kalman_tol Ki = PZ/Fi; %K_{t,i} in 6.13 in DK (2012) if t>=no_more_missing_observations K(:,i) = Ki; end lik(s,i) = log(Fi) + (prediction_error*prediction_error)/Fi + l2pi; %Top equation p. 175 in DK (2012) if analytic_derivation if analytic_derivation==2 [Da,DP,DLIKt,D2a,D2P, Hesst] = univariate_computeDLIK(k,i,z(i,:),Zflag,prediction_error,Ki,PZ,Fi,Da,DYss,DP,DH(d_index(i),:),notsteady,D2a,D2Yss,D2P); else [Da,DP,DLIKt,Hesst] = univariate_computeDLIK(k,i,z(i,:),Zflag,prediction_error,Ki,PZ,Fi,Da,DYss,DP,DH(d_index(i),:),notsteady); end if t>presample DLIK = DLIK + DLIKt; if analytic_derivation==2 || asy_hess Hess = Hess + Hesst; end end dlik(s,:)=dlik(s,:)+DLIKt'; end a = a + Ki*prediction_error; %filtering according to (6.13) in DK (2012) P = P - PZ*Ki'; %filtering according to (6.13) in DK (2012) else % do nothing as a_{t,i+1}=a_{t,i} and P_{t,i+1}=P_{t,i}, see % p. 157, DK (2012) end end if analytic_derivation if analytic_derivation==2 [Da,DP,D2a,D2P] = univariate_computeDstate(k,a,P,T,Da,DP,DT,DOm,notsteady,D2a,D2P,D2T,D2Om); else [Da,DP] = univariate_computeDstate(k,a,P,T,Da,DP,DT,DOm,notsteady); end end a = T*a; %transition according to (6.14) in DK (2012) P = T*P*T' + QQ; %transition according to (6.14) in DK (2012) if t>=no_more_missing_observations && ~isqvec notsteady = max(abs(K(:)-oldK))>riccati_tol; oldK = K(:); end t = t+1; end % Divide by two. lik(1:s,:) = .5*lik(1:s,:); if analytic_derivation DLIK = DLIK/2; dlik = dlik/2; if analytic_derivation==2 || asy_hess % Hess = (Hess + Hess')/2; Hess = -Hess/2; end end % Call steady state univariate kalman filter if needed. if t <= last if analytic_derivation if analytic_derivation==2 [tmp, tmp2] = univariate_kalman_filter_ss(Y,t,last,a,P,kalman_tol,T,H,Z,pp,Zflag, ... analytic_derivation,Da,DT,DYss,DP,DH,D2a,D2T,D2Yss,D2P); else [tmp, tmp2] = univariate_kalman_filter_ss(Y,t,last,a,P,kalman_tol,T,H,Z,pp,Zflag, ... analytic_derivation,Da,DT,DYss,DP,DH,asy_hess); end lik(s+1:end,:)=tmp2{1}; dlik(s+1:end,:)=tmp2{2}; DLIK = DLIK + tmp{2}; if analytic_derivation==2 || asy_hess Hess = Hess + tmp{3}; end else [tmp, lik(s+1:end,:)] = univariate_kalman_filter_ss(Y,t,last,a,P,kalman_tol,T,H,Z,pp,Zflag); end end % Compute minus the log-likelihood. if presample > diffuse_periods LIK = sum(sum(lik(1+presample-diffuse_periods:end,:))); else LIK = sum(sum(lik)); end if analytic_derivation if analytic_derivation==2 || asy_hess LIK={LIK, DLIK, Hess}; else LIK={LIK, DLIK}; end lik={lik, dlik}; end