function DynareResults = initial_estimation_checks(objective_function,xparam1,DynareDataset,DatasetInfo,Model,EstimatedParameters,DynareOptions,BayesInfo,BoundsInfo,DynareResults) % function DynareResults = initial_estimation_checks(objective_function,xparam1,DynareDataset,DatasetInfo,Model,EstimatedParameters,DynareOptions,BayesInfo,BoundsInfo,DynareResults) % Checks data (complex values, ML evaluation, initial values, BK conditions,..) % % INPUTS % objective_function [function handle] of the objective function % xparam1: [vector] of parameters to be estimated % DynareDataset: [dseries] object storing the dataset % DataSetInfo: [structure] storing informations about the sample. % Model: [structure] decribing the model % EstimatedParameters [structure] characterizing parameters to be estimated % DynareOptions [structure] describing the options % BayesInfo [structure] describing the priors % BoundsInfo [structure] containing prior bounds % DynareResults [structure] storing the results % % OUTPUTS % DynareResults structure of temporary results % % SPECIAL REQUIREMENTS % none % Copyright © 2003-2022 Dynare Team % % This file is part of Dynare. % % Dynare is free software: you can redistribute it and/or modify % it under the terms of the GNU General Public License as published by % the Free Software Foundation, either version 3 of the License, or % (at your option) any later version. % % Dynare is distributed in the hope that it will be useful, % but WITHOUT ANY WARRANTY; without even the implied warranty of % MERCHANTABILITY or FITNESS FOR A PARTICULAR PURPOSE. See the % GNU General Public License for more details. % % You should have received a copy of the GNU General Public License % along with Dynare. If not, see . %get maximum number of simultaneously observed variables for stochastic %singularity check maximum_number_non_missing_observations=max(sum(~isnan(DynareDataset.data(2:end,:)),2)); init_number_non_missing_observations=sum(~isnan(DynareDataset.data(1,:)),2); if DynareOptions.heteroskedastic_filter if DynareOptions.order>1 error('initial_estimation_checks:: heteroskedastic shocks are only supported with the Kalman filter/smoother') end observations_by_period=sum(~isnan(DynareDataset.data),2); base_shocks = find(diag(Model.Sigma_e)); zero_shocks = ~ismember(1:Model.exo_nbr,base_shocks); non_zero_shocks_by_period=repmat(length(base_shocks),size(observations_by_period)); % check periods for which base shocks are scaled to zero non_zero_shocks_by_period = non_zero_shocks_by_period-sum(Model.heteroskedastic_shocks.Qscale(base_shocks,1:DynareOptions.nobs)==0,1)'; % check periods for which base shocks are set to zero non_zero_shocks_by_period = non_zero_shocks_by_period-sum(Model.heteroskedastic_shocks.Qvalue(base_shocks,1:DynareOptions.nobs)==0,1)'; % check periods for which other shocks are set to a positive number non_zero_shocks_by_period = non_zero_shocks_by_period+sum(Model.heteroskedastic_shocks.Qvalue(zero_shocks,1:DynareOptions.nobs)>0,1)'; end if DynareOptions.order>1 if any(any(isnan(DynareDataset.data))) error('initial_estimation_checks:: particle filtering does not support missing observations') end if DynareOptions.prefilter==1 error('initial_estimation_checks:: particle filtering does not support the prefilter option') end if BayesInfo.with_trend error('initial_estimation_checks:: particle filtering does not support trends') end if DynareOptions.order>2 && DynareOptions.particle.pruning==1 error('initial_estimation_checks:: the particle filter with order>2 does not support pruning') end if DynareOptions.particle.pruning~=DynareOptions.pruning warning('initial_estimation_checks:: the pruning settings differ between the particle filter and the one used for IRFs/simulations. Make sure this is intended.') end end if DynareOptions.occbin.likelihood.status || DynareOptions.occbin.smoother.status if DynareOptions.prefilter error('initial_estimation_checks:: Occbin is incompatible with the prefilter option due to the sample mean generally not corresponding to the steady state with an occasionally binding constraint.') end if ~DynareOptions.occbin.likelihood.inversion_filter && (DynareOptions.kalman_algo==2 || DynareOptions.kalman_algo==4) error('initial_estimation_checks:: Occbin is incompatible with the selected univariate Kalman filter.') end if DynareOptions.fast_kalman_filter error('initial_estimation_checks:: Occbin is incompatible with the fast Kalman filter.') end end if (DynareOptions.occbin.likelihood.status && DynareOptions.occbin.likelihood.inversion_filter) || (DynareOptions.occbin.smoother.status && DynareOptions.occbin.smoother.inversion_filter) err_index= find(diag(Model.Sigma_e)~=0); if length(err_index)~=length(DynareOptions.varobs) fprintf('initial_estimation_checks:: The IVF requires exactly as many shocks as observables.') end var_index=find(any(isnan(DynareDataset.data))); if ~isempty(var_index) fprintf('initial_estimation_checks:: The IVF requires exactly as many shocks as observables.\n') fprintf('initial_estimation_checks:: The data series %s contains NaN, I am therefore dropping shock %s for these time points.\n',... DynareOptions.varobs{var_index},Model.exo_names{DynareOptions.occbin.likelihood.IVF_shock_observable_mapping(var_index)}) end end if DynareOptions.order>1 || (DynareOptions.order==1 && ~ischar(DynareOptions.mode_compute) && DynareOptions.mode_compute==11) if DynareOptions.order==1 && DynareOptions.mode_compute==11 disp_string='mode_compute=11'; else disp_string='particle filtering'; end if Model.H==0 error('initial_estimation_checks:: %s requires measurement error on the observables',disp_string) else if sum(diag(Model.H)>0)Model.exo_nbr+non_zero_ME error(['initial_estimation_checks:: Estimation can''t take place because there are less declared shocks than observed variables!']) end if init_number_non_missing_observations>Model.exo_nbr+non_zero_ME if DynareOptions.no_init_estimation_check_first_obs print_init_check_warning=true; else error(['initial_estimation_checks:: Estimation can''t take place because there are less declared shocks than observed variables in first period!']) end end if DynareOptions.heteroskedastic_filter if any(observations_by_period>(non_zero_shocks_by_period+non_zero_ME)) error(['initial_estimation_checks:: Estimation can''t take place because too many shocks have been calibrated with a zero variance: Check heteroskedastic block and shocks calibration!']) end else if maximum_number_non_missing_observations>length(find(diag(Model.Sigma_e)))+non_zero_ME error(['initial_estimation_checks:: Estimation can''t take place because too many shocks have been calibrated with a zero variance!']) end end if init_number_non_missing_observations>length(find(diag(Model.Sigma_e)))+non_zero_ME if DynareOptions.no_init_estimation_check_first_obs print_init_check_warning=true; else error(['initial_estimation_checks:: Estimation can''t take place because too many shocks have been calibrated with a zero variance in first period!']) end end if print_init_check_warning fprintf('ESTIMATION_CHECKS: You decided to ignore test of stochastic singularity in first_obs.\n'); fprintf('ESTIMATION_CHECKS: If this was not done on purpose (typically when observing a stock variable [capital] in first period, on top of its flow [investment]),\n'); fprintf('ESTIMATION_CHECKS: it may lead to a crash or provide undesired/wrong results later on!\n'); end if (any(BayesInfo.pshape >0 ) && DynareOptions.mh_replic) && DynareOptions.mh_nblck<1 error(['initial_estimation_checks:: Bayesian estimation cannot be conducted with mh_nblocks=0.']) end old_steady_params=Model.params; %save initial parameters for check if steady state changes param values % % check if steady state solves static model (except if diffuse_filter == 1) [DynareResults.steady_state, new_steady_params] = evaluate_steady_state(DynareResults.steady_state,Model,DynareOptions,DynareResults,DynareOptions.diffuse_filter==0); if isfield(EstimatedParameters,'param_vals') && ~isempty(EstimatedParameters.param_vals) %check whether steady state file changes estimated parameters Model_par_varied=Model; %store Model structure Model_par_varied.params(EstimatedParameters.param_vals(:,1))=Model_par_varied.params(EstimatedParameters.param_vals(:,1))*1.01; %vary parameters [~, new_steady_params_2] = evaluate_steady_state(DynareResults.steady_state,Model_par_varied,DynareOptions,DynareResults,DynareOptions.diffuse_filter==0); changed_par_indices=find((old_steady_params(EstimatedParameters.param_vals(:,1))-new_steady_params(EstimatedParameters.param_vals(:,1))) ... | (Model_par_varied.params(EstimatedParameters.param_vals(:,1))-new_steady_params_2(EstimatedParameters.param_vals(:,1)))); if ~isempty(changed_par_indices) fprintf('\nThe steady state file internally changed the values of the following estimated parameters:\n') disp(char(Model.param_names(EstimatedParameters.param_vals(changed_par_indices,1)))) fprintf('This will override the parameter values drawn from the proposal density and may lead to wrong results.\n') fprintf('Check whether this is really intended.\n') warning('The steady state file internally changes the values of the estimated parameters.') end end if any(BayesInfo.pshape) % if Bayesian estimation nvx=EstimatedParameters.nvx; if nvx && any(BayesInfo.p3(1:nvx)<0) warning('Your prior allows for negative standard deviations for structural shocks. Due to working with variances, Dynare will be able to continue, but it is recommended to change your prior.') end offset=nvx; nvn=EstimatedParameters.nvn; if nvn && any(BayesInfo.p3(1+offset:offset+nvn)<0) warning('Your prior allows for negative standard deviations for measurement error. Due to working with variances, Dynare will be able to continue, but it is recommended to change your prior.') end offset = nvx+nvn; ncx=EstimatedParameters.ncx; if ncx && (any(BayesInfo.p3(1+offset:offset+ncx)<-1) || any(BayesInfo.p4(1+offset:offset+ncx)>1)) warning('Your prior allows for correlations between structural shocks larger than +-1 and will not integrate to 1 due to truncation. Please change your prior') end offset = nvx+nvn+ncx; ncn=EstimatedParameters.ncn; if ncn && (any(BayesInfo.p3(1+offset:offset+ncn)<-1) || any(BayesInfo.p4(1+offset:offset+ncn)>1)) warning('Your prior allows for correlations between measurement errors larger than +-1 and will not integrate to 1 due to truncation. Please change your prior') end end % display warning if some parameters are still NaN test_for_deep_parameters_calibration(Model); [lnprior,~,~,info]= priordens(xparam1,BayesInfo.pshape,BayesInfo.p6,BayesInfo.p7,BayesInfo.p3,BayesInfo.p4); if any(info) fprintf('The prior density evaluated at the initial values is Inf for the following parameters: %s\n',BayesInfo.name{info,1}) error('The initial value of the prior is -Inf') end if isfield(Model,'filter_initial_state') && ~isempty(Model.filter_initial_state) state_indices=DynareResults.dr.order_var(DynareResults.dr.restrict_var_list(BayesInfo.mf0)); for ii=1:size(state_indices,1) if ~isempty(Model.filter_initial_state{state_indices(ii),1}) try evaluate_expression(Model.filter_initial_state{state_indices(ii),2},Model,DynareResults) catch fprintf('Unable to evaluate the expression\n %s \nfor the filter_initial_state of variable %s\n',Model.filter_initial_state{state_indices(ii),2},Model.endo_names(state_indices(ii),:)) end end end end if DynareOptions.ramsey_policy %test whether specification matches inst_nbr = size(DynareOptions.instruments,1); if inst_nbr~=0 orig_endo_aux_nbr = Model.orig_endo_nbr + min(find([Model.aux_vars.type] == 6)) - 1; implied_inst_nbr = orig_endo_aux_nbr - Model.orig_eq_nbr; if inst_nbr>implied_inst_nbr error('You have specified more instruments than there are omitted equations') elseif inst_nbr 0 if DynareOptions.order>1 [eigenvalues_] = check(Model,DynareOptions, DynareResults); if any(abs(1-abs(eigenvalues_))1e-9)) || (DynareOptions.loglinear && any(abs(log(DynareResults.steady_state(BayesInfo.mfys)))>1e-9)) disp(['You are trying to estimate a model with a non zero steady state for the observed endogenous']) disp(['variables using demeaned data!']) error('You should change something in your mod file...') end end if ~isequal(DynareOptions.mode_compute,11) disp(['Initial value of the log posterior (or likelihood): ' num2str(-fval)]); end if DynareOptions.mh_tune_jscale.status && (DynareOptions.mh_tune_jscale.maxiter