function x0=dynare_sensitivity(options_gsa) % Frontend to the Sensitivity Analysis Toolbox for DYNARE % % Reference: % M. Ratto, Global Sensitivity Analysis for Macroeconomic models, MIMEO, 2006. % Copyright (C) 2008-2018 Dynare Team % % This file is part of Dynare. % % Dynare is free software: you can redistribute it and/or modify % it under the terms of the GNU General Public License as published by % the Free Software Foundation, either version 3 of the License, or % (at your option) any later version. % % Dynare is distributed in the hope that it will be useful, % but WITHOUT ANY WARRANTY; without even the implied warranty of % MERCHANTABILITY or FITNESS FOR A PARTICULAR PURPOSE. See the % GNU General Public License for more details. % % You should have received a copy of the GNU General Public License % along with Dynare. If not, see . global M_ options_ oo_ bayestopt_ estim_params_ if options_.dsge_var error('Identification does not support DSGE-VARs at the current stage') end fname_ = M_.fname; lgy_ = M_.endo_names; x0=[]; % check user defined options if isfield(options_gsa,'neighborhood_width') && options_gsa.neighborhood_width if isfield(options_gsa,'pprior') && options_gsa.pprior error('sensitivity:: neighborhood_width is incompatible with prior sampling') end if isfield(options_gsa,'ppost') && options_gsa.ppost error('sensitivity:: neighborhood_width is incompatible with posterior sampling') end end if isfield(options_gsa,'morris') && options_gsa.morris==1 if isfield(options_gsa,'identification') && options_gsa.identification==0 % options_gsa.redform=1; end if isfield(options_gsa,'ppost') && options_gsa.ppost error('sensitivity:: Morris is incompatible with posterior sampling') elseif isfield(options_gsa,'pprior') && options_gsa.pprior==0 if ~(isfield(options_gsa,'neighborhood_width') && options_gsa.neighborhood_width) error('sensitivity:: Morris is incompatible with MC sampling with correlation matrix') end end if isfield(options_gsa,'rmse') && options_gsa.rmse error('sensitivity:: Morris is incompatible with rmse analysis') end if (isfield(options_gsa,'alpha2_stab') && options_gsa.alpha2_stab<1) || ... (isfield(options_gsa,'pvalue_ks') && options_gsa.pvalue_ks) || ... (isfield(options_gsa,'pvalue_corr') && options_gsa.pvalue_corr) error('sensitivity:: Morris is incompatible with Monte Carlo filtering') end end % end check user defined options options_gsa = set_default_option(options_gsa,'datafile',[]); options_gsa = set_default_option(options_gsa,'rmse',0); options_gsa = set_default_option(options_gsa,'useautocorr',0); options_gsa = set_default_option(options_gsa,'moment_calibration',options_.endogenous_prior_restrictions.moment); options_gsa = set_default_option(options_gsa,'irf_calibration',options_.endogenous_prior_restrictions.irf); if isfield(options_gsa,'nograph') options_.nograph=options_gsa.nograph; end if isfield(options_gsa,'nodisplay') options_.nodisplay=options_gsa.nodisplay; end if isfield(options_gsa,'graph_format') options_.graph_format=options_gsa.graph_format; end if isfield(options_gsa,'mode_file') options_.mode_file=options_gsa.mode_file; elseif isfield(options_gsa,'neighborhood_width') && options_gsa.neighborhood_width>0 options_.mode_file=''; end options_.order = 1; if ~isempty(options_gsa.datafile) || isempty(bayestopt_) || options_gsa.rmse if isempty(options_gsa.datafile) && options_gsa.rmse disp('The data file and all relevant estimation options ') disp('[first_obs, nobs, presample, prefilter, loglinear, lik_init, kalman_algo, ...]') disp('must be specified for RMSE analysis!'); error('Sensitivity anaysis error!') end if ~isempty(options_.nobs) && length(options_.nobs)~=1 error('dynare_sensitivity does not support recursive estimation. Please specify nobs as a scalar, not a vector.') end options_.datafile = options_gsa.datafile; if isfield(options_gsa,'first_obs') options_.first_obs=options_gsa.first_obs; end if isfield(options_gsa,'nobs') options_.nobs=options_gsa.nobs; end if isfield(options_gsa,'presample') options_.presample=options_gsa.presample; end if isfield(options_gsa,'prefilter') options_.prefilter=options_gsa.prefilter; end if isfield(options_gsa,'loglinear') options_.loglinear=options_gsa.loglinear; end if isfield(options_gsa,'lik_init') options_.lik_init=options_gsa.lik_init; end if isfield(options_gsa,'diffuse_filter') options_.diffuse_filter=options_gsa.diffuse_filter; end if isfield(options_gsa,'kalman_algo') options_.kalman_algo=options_gsa.kalman_algo; end options_.mode_compute = 0; options_.filtered_vars = 1; options_.plot_priors = 0; [dataset_,dataset_info,xparam1,hh, M_, options_, oo_, estim_params_, bayestopt_] = ... dynare_estimation_init(M_.endo_names, fname_, 1, M_, options_, oo_, estim_params_, bayestopt_); % computes a first linear solution to set up various variables else if isempty(options_.qz_criterium) options_.qz_criterium = 1+1e-6; end end [make,my,day,punk,M_,options_,oo_] = dynare_resolve(M_,options_,oo_); options_gsa = set_default_option(options_gsa,'identification',0); if options_gsa.identification options_gsa.redform=0; options_gsa = set_default_option(options_gsa,'morris',1); options_gsa = set_default_option(options_gsa,'trans_ident',0); options_gsa = set_default_option(options_gsa,'load_ident_files',0); options_gsa = set_default_option(options_gsa,'ar',1); options_.ar = options_gsa.ar; if options_gsa.morris==0 disp('The option morris = 0 is no longer supported (Type I errors)') disp('This option is reset at morris = 2 (local identification analysis).') options_gsa.morris=2; end if options_gsa.morris==2 if isfield(options_,'options_ident') options_.options_ident.load_ident_files = options_gsa.load_ident_files; options_.options_ident.useautocorr = options_gsa.useautocorr; options_.options_ident.ar = options_gsa.ar; options_ident=options_.options_ident; else options_ident=[]; options_ident = set_default_option(options_ident,'load_ident_files',options_gsa.load_ident_files); options_ident = set_default_option(options_ident,'useautocorr',options_gsa.useautocorr); options_ident = set_default_option(options_ident,'ar',options_gsa.ar); options_.options_ident = options_ident; end end end % map stability options_gsa = set_default_option(options_gsa,'stab',1); options_gsa = set_default_option(options_gsa,'pprior',1); options_gsa = set_default_option(options_gsa,'prior_range',1); options_gsa = set_default_option(options_gsa,'ppost',0); options_gsa = set_default_option(options_gsa,'neighborhood_width',0); options_gsa = set_default_option(options_gsa,'ilptau',1); options_gsa = set_default_option(options_gsa,'morris',0); options_gsa = set_default_option(options_gsa,'glue',0); options_gsa = set_default_option(options_gsa,'morris_nliv',6); options_gsa = set_default_option(options_gsa,'morris_ntra',20); options_gsa = set_default_option(options_gsa,'Nsam',2048); options_gsa = set_default_option(options_gsa,'load_stab',0); options_gsa = set_default_option(options_gsa,'alpha2_stab',0); options_gsa = set_default_option(options_gsa,'pvalue_ks',0.001); options_gsa = set_default_option(options_gsa,'pvalue_corr',1.e-5); %options_gsa = set_default_option(options_gsa,'load_mh',0); % REDFORM mapping options_gsa = set_default_option(options_gsa,'redform',0); options_gsa = set_default_option(options_gsa,'load_redform',0); options_gsa = set_default_option(options_gsa,'logtrans_redform',0); options_gsa = set_default_option(options_gsa,'threshold_redform',[]); options_gsa = set_default_option(options_gsa,'ksstat_redform',0.001); options_gsa = set_default_option(options_gsa,'alpha2_redform',1.e-5); options_gsa = set_default_option(options_gsa,'namendo',{}); options_gsa = set_default_option(options_gsa,'namlagendo',[]); options_gsa = set_default_option(options_gsa,'namexo',{}); % RMSE mapping options_gsa = set_default_option(options_gsa,'load_rmse',0); options_gsa = set_default_option(options_gsa,'lik_only',0); options_gsa = set_default_option(options_gsa,'var_rmse', options_.varobs); %get corresponding TeX-names; options_gsa.var_rmse_tex={}; for ii=1:length(options_gsa.var_rmse) temp_name = M_.endo_names_tex{strmatch(options_gsa.var_rmse{ii}, M_.endo_names, 'exact')}; options_gsa.var_rmse_tex = vertcat(options_gsa.var_rmse_tex, temp_name); end options_gsa = set_default_option(options_gsa,'pfilt_rmse', 0.1); options_gsa = set_default_option(options_gsa,'istart_rmse', options_.presample+1); options_gsa = set_default_option(options_gsa,'alpha_rmse', 0.001); options_gsa = set_default_option(options_gsa,'alpha2_rmse', 1.e-5); if options_gsa.neighborhood_width options_gsa.pprior=0; options_gsa.ppost=0; end if options_gsa.redform && options_gsa.neighborhood_width==0 && isempty(options_gsa.threshold_redform) options_gsa.pprior=1; options_gsa.ppost=0; end if options_gsa.morris>2 disp('The option morris = 3 is no longer supported') disp('the option is reset at morris = 1 .') options_gsa.morris=1; end if options_gsa.morris==1 if ~options_gsa.identification options_gsa.redform=1; end if options_gsa.neighborhood_width options_gsa.pprior=0; else options_gsa.pprior=1; end options_gsa.ppost=0; %options_gsa.stab=1; options_gsa.glue=0; options_gsa.rmse=0; options_gsa.load_rmse=0; options_gsa.alpha2_stab=1; options_gsa.pvalue_ks=0; options_gsa.pvalue_corr=0; % if options_gsa.morris==3, % options_gsa = set_default_option(options_gsa,'Nsam',256); % OutputDirectoryName = CheckPath('gsa/identif',M_.dname); % else OutputDirectoryName = CheckPath('gsa/screen',M_.dname); % end else OutputDirectoryName = CheckPath('gsa',M_.dname); end % options_.opt_gsa = options_gsa; if (options_gsa.load_stab || options_gsa.load_rmse || options_gsa.load_redform) && options_gsa.pprior filetoload=[OutputDirectoryName '/' fname_ '_prior.mat']; if ~exist(filetoload) disp([filetoload,' not found!']) disp(['You asked to load a non existent analysis']) %options_gsa.load_stab=0; return else if isempty(strmatch('bkpprior',who('-file', filetoload),'exact')) disp('Warning! Missing prior info for saved sample') % trap for files previous disp('The saved files are generated with previous version of GSA package') % trap for files previous else load(filetoload,'bkpprior') if any(bayestopt_.pshape~=bkpprior.pshape) || ... any(bayestopt_.p1~=bkpprior.p1) || ... any(bayestopt_.p2~=bkpprior.p2) || ... any(bayestopt_.p3(~isnan(bayestopt_.p3))~=bkpprior.p3(~isnan(bkpprior.p3))) || ... any(bayestopt_.p4(~isnan(bayestopt_.p4))~=bkpprior.p4(~isnan(bkpprior.p4))) disp('WARNING!') disp('The saved sample has different priors w.r.t. to current ones!!') skipline() disp('Press ENTER to continue') pause end end end end if options_gsa.stab && ~options_gsa.ppost x0 = stab_map_(OutputDirectoryName,options_gsa); if isempty(x0) skipline() disp('Sensitivity computations stopped: no parameter set provided a unique solution') return end end % reduced form % redform_map(namendo, namlagendo, namexo, icomp, pprior, ilog, threshold) options_.opt_gsa = options_gsa; if ~isempty(options_gsa.moment_calibration) || ~isempty(options_gsa.irf_calibration) map_calibration(OutputDirectoryName, M_, options_, oo_, estim_params_,bayestopt_); end if options_gsa.identification map_ident_(OutputDirectoryName,options_gsa); end if options_gsa.redform && ~isempty(options_gsa.namendo) if options_gsa.ppost filnam = dir([M_.dname filesep 'metropolis' filesep '*param_irf*.mat']); lpmat=[]; for j=1:length(filnam) load ([M_.dname filesep 'metropolis' filesep M_.fname '_param_irf' int2str(j) '.mat']) lpmat=[lpmat; stock]; end clear stock nshock = estim_params_.nvx; nshock = nshock + estim_params_.nvn; nshock = nshock + estim_params_.ncx; nshock = nshock + estim_params_.ncn; lpmat0=lpmat(:,1:nshock); lpmat=lpmat(:,nshock+1:end); istable=(1:size(lpmat,1)); iunstable=[]; iwrong=[]; iindeterm=[]; save([OutputDirectoryName filesep M_.fname '_mc.mat'],'lpmat','lpmat0','istable','iunstable','iwrong','iindeterm') options_gsa.load_stab=1; x0 = stab_map_(OutputDirectoryName,options_gsa); end if strmatch(':',options_gsa.namendo,'exact') options_gsa.namendo = M_.endo_names(1:M_.orig_endo_nbr); end if strmatch(':',options_gsa.namexo,'exact') options_gsa.namexo = M_.exo_names; end if strmatch(':',options_gsa.namlagendo,'exact') options_gsa.namlagendo = M_.endo_names(1:M_.orig_endo_nbr); end % options_.opt_gsa = options_gsa; if options_gsa.morris==1 redform_screen(OutputDirectoryName,options_gsa); else % check existence of the SS_ANOVA toolbox if isempty(options_gsa.threshold_redform) && ~(exist('gsa_sdp','file')==6 || exist('gsa_sdp','file')==2) fprintf('\nThe "SS-ANOVA-R: MATLAB Toolbox for the estimation of Smoothing Spline ANOVA models with Recursive algorithms" is missing.\n') fprintf('To obtain it, go to:\n\n') fprintf('http://ipsc.jrc.ec.europa.eu/?id=790 \n\n') fprintf('and follow the instructions there.\n') fprintf('After obtaining the files, you need to unpack them and set a Matlab Path to those files.\n') error('SS-ANOVA-R Toolbox missing!') end redform_map(OutputDirectoryName,options_gsa); end end % RMSE mapping % function [rmse_MC, ixx] = filt_mc_(vvarvecm, loadSA, pfilt, alpha, alpha2) options_.opt_gsa = options_gsa; if options_gsa.rmse if ~options_gsa.ppost if options_gsa.pprior a=whos('-file',[OutputDirectoryName,'/',fname_,'_prior'],'logpo2'); else a=whos('-file',[OutputDirectoryName,'/',fname_,'_mc'],'logpo2'); end if isoctave() aflag=0; for ja=1:length(a) aflag=aflag+strcmp('logpo2',a(ja).name); end if aflag==0 a=[]; else a=1; end end if isempty(a) if options_gsa.lik_only options_.smoother=0; options_.filter_step_ahead=[]; options_.forecast=0; options_.filtered_vars=0; end % dynare_MC([],OutputDirectoryName,data,rawdata,data_info); if options_gsa.pprior TmpDirectoryName = ([M_.dname filesep 'gsa' filesep 'prior']); else TmpDirectoryName = ([M_.dname filesep 'gsa' filesep 'mc']); end if exist(TmpDirectoryName,'dir') mydelete([M_.fname '_filter_step_ahead*.mat'],[TmpDirectoryName filesep]); mydelete([M_.fname '_inno*.mat'],[TmpDirectoryName filesep]); mydelete([M_.fname '_smooth*.mat'],[TmpDirectoryName filesep]); mydelete([M_.fname '_update*.mat'],[TmpDirectoryName filesep]); filparam = dir([TmpDirectoryName filesep M_.fname '_param*.mat']); for j=1:length(filparam) if isempty(strmatch([M_.fname '_param_irf'],filparam(j).name)) delete([TmpDirectoryName filesep filparam(j).name]); end end end prior_posterior_statistics('gsa',dataset_, dataset_info); if options_.bayesian_irf PosteriorIRF('gsa'); end options_gsa.load_rmse=0; % else % if options_gsa.load_rmse==0, % disp('You already saved a MC filter/smoother analysis ') % disp('Do you want to overwrite ?') % pause; % if options_gsa.pprior % delete([OutputDirectoryName,'/',fname_,'_prior_*.mat']) % else % delete([OutputDirectoryName,'/',fname_,'_mc_*.mat']) % end % dynare_MC([],OutputDirectoryName); % options_gsa.load_rmse=0; % end end end clear a; % filt_mc_(OutputDirectoryName,data_info); filt_mc_(OutputDirectoryName,options_gsa,dataset_,dataset_info); end options_.opt_gsa = options_gsa; if options_gsa.glue dr_ = oo_.dr; if options_gsa.ppost load([OutputDirectoryName,'/',fname_,'_post']); DirectoryName = CheckPath('metropolis',M_.dname); else if options_gsa.pprior load([OutputDirectoryName,'/',fname_,'_prior']); else load([OutputDirectoryName,'/',fname_,'_mc']); end end if ~exist('x') disp(['No RMSE analysis is available for current options']) disp(['No GLUE file prepared']) return, end nruns=size(x,1); gend = options_.nobs; rawdata = read_variables(options_.datafile,options_.varobs,[],options_.xls_sheet,options_.xls_range); rawdata = rawdata(options_.first_obs:options_.first_obs+gend-1,:); if options_.loglinear rawdata = log(rawdata); end if options_.prefilter == 1 %data = transpose(rawdata-ones(gend,1)*bayestopt_.mean_varobs); data = transpose(rawdata-ones(gend,1)*mean(rawdata,1)); else data = transpose(rawdata); end Obs.data = data; Obs.time = [1:gend]; Obs.num = gend; for j=1:length(options_.varobs) Obs.name{j} = options_.varobs{j}; vj = options_.varobs{j}; jxj = strmatch(vj,lgy_(dr_.order_var),'exact'); js = strmatch(vj,lgy_,'exact'); if ~options_gsa.ppost % y0=zeros(gend+1,nruns); % nb = size(stock_filter,3); % y0 = squeeze(stock_filter(:,jxj,:)) + ... % kron(stock_ys(js,:),ones(size(stock_filter,1),1)); % Out(j).data = y0'; % Out(j).time = [1:size(y0,1)]; Out(j).data = jxj; Out(j).time = [pwd,'/',OutputDirectoryName]; else Out(j).data = jxj; Out(j).time = [pwd,'/',DirectoryName]; end Out(j).name = vj; Out(j).ini = 'yes'; Lik(j).name = ['rmse_',vj]; Lik(j).ini = 'yes'; Lik(j).isam = 1; Lik(j).data = rmse_MC(:,j)'; if ~options_gsa.ppost % y0 = squeeze(stock_smooth(:,jxj,:)) + ... % kron(stock_ys(js,:),ones(size(stock_smooth,1),1)); % Out1(j).name = vj; % Out1(j).ini = 'yes'; % Out1(j).time = [1:size(y0,1)]; % Out1(j).data = y0'; Out1=Out; else Out1=Out; end ismoo(j)=jxj; end jsmoo = length(options_.varobs); for j=1:M_.endo_nbr if ~ismember(j,ismoo) jsmoo=jsmoo+1; vj = M_.endo_names{dr_.order_var(j)}; if ~options_gsa.ppost % y0 = squeeze(stock_smooth(:,j,:)) + ... % kron(stock_ys(j,:),ones(size(stock_smooth,1),1)); % Out1(jsmoo).time = [1:size(y0,1)]; % Out1(jsmoo).data = y0'; Out1(jsmoo).data = j; Out1(jsmoo).time = [pwd,'/',OutputDirectoryName]; else Out1(jsmoo).data = j; Out1(jsmoo).time = [pwd,'/',DirectoryName]; end Out1(jsmoo).name = vj; Out1(jsmoo).ini = 'yes'; end end tit(M_.exo_names_orig_ord) = M_.exo_names; for j=1:M_.exo_nbr Exo(j).name = tit{j}; end if ~options_gsa.ppost Lik(length(options_.varobs)+1).name = 'logpo'; Lik(length(options_.varobs)+1).ini = 'yes'; Lik(length(options_.varobs)+1).isam = 1; Lik(length(options_.varobs)+1).data = -logpo2; end Sam.name = bayestopt_.name; Sam.dim = [size(x) 0]; Sam.data = [x]; Rem.id = 'Original'; Rem.ind= [1:size(x,1)]; Info.dynare=M_.fname; Info.order_var=dr_.order_var; Out=Out1; if options_gsa.ppost % Info.dynare=M_.fname; % Info.order_var=dr_.order_var; % Out=Out1; Info.TypeofSample='post'; save([OutputDirectoryName,'/',fname_,'_glue_post.mat'], 'Out', 'Sam', 'Lik', 'Obs', 'Rem','Info', 'Exo') %save([fname_,'_post_glue_smooth'], 'Out', 'Sam', 'Lik', 'Obs', 'Rem','Info') else if options_gsa.pprior Info.TypeofSample='prior'; save([OutputDirectoryName,'/',fname_,'_glue_prior.mat'], 'Out', 'Sam', 'Lik', 'Obs', 'Rem','Info', 'Exo') % save([OutputDirectoryName,'/',fname_,'_prior_glue'], 'Out', 'Sam', 'Lik', 'Obs', 'Rem') % Out=Out1; % save([OutputDirectoryName,'/',fname_,'_prior_glue_smooth'], 'Out', 'Sam', 'Lik', 'Obs', 'Rem') else Info.TypeofSample='mc'; save([OutputDirectoryName,'/',fname_,'_glue_mc.mat'], 'Out', 'Sam', 'Lik', 'Obs', 'Rem','Info', 'Exo') % save([OutputDirectoryName,'/',fname_,'_mc_glue'], 'Out', 'Sam', 'Lik', 'Obs', 'Rem') % Out=Out1; % save([OutputDirectoryName,'/',fname_,'_mc_glue_smooth'], 'Out', 'Sam', 'Lik', 'Obs', 'Rem') end end end