function Simulations = extended_path_mc(initialconditions, samplesize, replic, exogenousvariables, options_, M_, oo_) % Simulations = extended_path_mc(initialconditions, samplesize, replic, exogenousvariables, options_, M_, oo_) % Stochastic simulation of a non linear DSGE model using the Extended Path method (Fair and Taylor 1983). A time % series of size T is obtained by solving T perfect foresight models. % % INPUTS % o initialconditions [double] m*1 array, where m is the number of endogenous variables in the model. % o samplesize [integer] scalar, size of the sample to be simulated. % o exogenousvariables [double] T*n array, values for the structural innovations. % o options_ [struct] Dynare's options structure % o M_ [struct] Dynare's model structure % o oo_ [struct] Dynare's results structure % % OUTPUTS % o ts [dseries] m*samplesize array, the simulations. % o results [cell] % % ALGORITHM % % SPECIAL REQUIREMENTS % Copyright © 2016-2023 Dynare Team % % This file is part of Dynare. % % Dynare is free software: you can redistribute it and/or modify % it under the terms of the GNU General Public License as published by % the Free Software Foundation, either version 3 of the License, or % (at your option) any later version. % % Dynare is distributed in the hope that it will be useful, % but WITHOUT ANY WARRANTY; without even the implied warranty of % MERCHANTABILITY or FITNESS FOR A PARTICULAR PURPOSE. See the % GNU General Public License for more details. % % You should have received a copy of the GNU General Public License % along with Dynare. If not, see . [initialconditions, innovations, pfm, ep, verbosity, options_, oo_] = ... extended_path_initialization(initialconditions, samplesize, exogenousvariables, options_, M_, oo_); % Check the dimension of the first input argument if isequal(size(initialconditions, 2), 1) initialconditions = repmat(initialconditions, 1, replic); else if ~isequal(size(initialconditions, 2), replic) error('Wrong size. Number of columns in first argument should match the value of the third argument!') end end % Check the dimension of the fourth input argument if isempty(exogenousvariables) exogenousvariables = repmat(exogenousvariables, [1, 1, replic]); else if ~isequal(size(exogenousvariables, 3), replic) error('Wrong size. !') end end if ~isequal(size(exogenousvariables, 3), replic) error('Wrong dimensions. Fourth argument must be a 3D array with as many pages as the value of the third argument!') end data = NaN(size(initialconditions, 1), samplesize+1, replic); vexo = NaN(innovations.effective_number_of_shocks, samplesize+1, replic); info = NaN(replic, 1); if ep.parallel % Use the Parallel toolbox. parfor i=1:replic innovations_ = innovations; oo__ = oo_; [shocks, spfm_exo_simul, innovations_, oo__] = extended_path_shocks(innovations_, ep, exogenousvariables(:,:,i), samplesize, M_, options_, oo__); endogenous_variables_paths = NaN(M_.endo_nbr,samplesize+1); endogenous_variables_paths(:,1) = initialconditions(:,1); exogenous_variables_paths = NaN(innovations_.effective_number_of_shocks,samplesize+1); exogenous_variables_paths(:,1) = 0; info_convergence = true; t = 1; while t<=samplesize t = t+1; spfm_exo_simul(2,:) = shocks(t-1,:); exogenous_variables_paths(:,t) = shocks(t-1,:); [endogenous_variables_paths(:,t), info_convergence] = extended_path_core(ep.periods, M_.endo_nbr, M_.exo_nbr, innovations_.positive_var_indx, ... spfm_exo_simul, ep.init, endogenous_variables_paths(:,t-1), ... oo__.steady_state, ... ep.verbosity, ep.stochastic.order, ... M_, pfm,ep.stochastic.algo, ep.solve_algo, ep.stack_solve_algo, ... options_.lmmcp, options_, oo__); if ~info_convergence msg = sprintf('No convergence of the (stochastic) perfect foresight solver (in period %s, iteration %s)!', int2str(t), int2str(i)); warning(msg) break end end % Loop over t info(i) = info_convergence; vexo(:,:,i) = exogenous_variables_paths; data(:,:,i) = endogenous_variables_paths; end else % Sequential approach. for i=1:replic [shocks, spfm_exo_simul, innovations, oo_] = extended_path_shocks(innovations, ep, exogenousvariables(:,:,i), samplesize, M_, options_, oo_); endogenous_variables_paths = NaN(M_.endo_nbr,samplesize+1); endogenous_variables_paths(:,1) = initialconditions(:,1); exogenous_variables_paths = NaN(innovations.effective_number_of_shocks,samplesize+1); exogenous_variables_paths(:,1) = 0; t = 1; while t<=samplesize t = t+1; spfm_exo_simul(2,:) = shocks(t-1,:); exogenous_variables_paths(:,t) = shocks(t-1,:); [endogenous_variables_paths(:,t), info_convergence] = extended_path_core(ep.periods, M_.endo_nbr, M_.exo_nbr, innovations.positive_var_indx, ... spfm_exo_simul, ep.init, endogenous_variables_paths(:,t-1), ... oo_.steady_state, ... ep.verbosity, ep.stochastic.order, ... M_, pfm,ep.stochastic.algo, ep.solve_algo, ep.stack_solve_algo, ... options_.lmmcp, options_, oo_); if ~info_convergence msg = sprintf('No convergence of the (stochastic) perfect foresight solver (in period %s, iteration %s)!', int2str(t), int2str(i)); warning(msg) break end end % Loop over t info(i) = info_convergence; vexo(:,:,i) = exogenous_variables_paths; data(:,:,i) = endogenous_variables_paths; end % Loop over i end Simulations.innovations = vexo; Simulations.data = data; Simulations.info = info;