function [dataset_, dataset_info, xparam1, hh, M_, options_, oo_, estim_params_,bayestopt_, fake] = dynare_estimation_init(var_list_, dname, gsa_flag, M_, options_, oo_, estim_params_, bayestopt_) % function dynare_estimation_init(var_list_, gsa_flag) % preforms initialization tasks before estimation or % global sensitivity analysis % % INPUTS % var_list_: selected endogenous variables vector % dname: alternative directory name % gsa_flag: flag for GSA operation (optional) % % OUTPUTS % data: data after required transformation % rawdata: data as in the data file % xparam1: initial value of estimated parameters as returned by % set_prior() % % SPECIAL REQUIREMENTS % none % Copyright (C) 2003-2013 Dynare Team % % This file is part of Dynare. % % Dynare is free software: you can redistribute it and/or modify % it under the terms of the GNU General Public License as published by % the Free Software Foundation, either version 3 of the License, or % (at your option) any later version. % % Dynare is distributed in the hope that it will be useful, % but WITHOUT ANY WARRANTY; without even the implied warranty of % MERCHANTABILITY or FITNESS FOR A PARTICULAR PURPOSE. See the % GNU General Public License for more details. % % You should have received a copy of the GNU General Public License % along with Dynare. If not, see . global objective_function_penalty_base hh = []; if isempty(gsa_flag) gsa_flag = 0; else % Decide if a DSGE or DSGE-VAR has to be estimated. if ~isempty(strmatch('dsge_prior_weight',M_.param_names)) options_.dsge_var = 1; end % Get the list of the endogenous variables for which posterior statistics wil be computed var_list_ = check_list_of_variables(options_, M_, var_list_); options_.varlist = var_list_; end % Set the number of observed variables. options_.number_of_observed_variables = length(options_.varobs); % Test if observed variables are declared. if ~options_.number_of_observed_variables error('VAROBS is missing!') end % Check that each declared observed variable is also an endogenous variable. for i = 1:options_.number_of_observed_variables id = strmatch(options_.varobs{i}, M_.endo_names, 'exact'); if isempty(id) error(['Unknown variable (' options_.varobs{i} ')!']) end end % Check that a variable is not declared as observed more than once. if ~isequal(options_.varobs,unique(options_.varobs)) for i = 1:options_.number_of_observed_variables if length(strmatch(options_.varobs{i},options_.varobs))>1 error(['A variable cannot be declared as observed more than once (' options_.varobs{i} ')!']) end end end % Check the perturbation order (nonlinear filters with third order perturbation, or higher order, are not yet implemented). if options_.order>2 error(['I cannot estimate a model with a ' int2str(options_.order) ' order approximation of the model!']) end % Set options_.lik_init equal to 3 if diffuse filter is used or kalman_algo refers to a diffuse filter algorithm. if isequal(options_.diffuse_filter,1) || (options_.kalman_algo>2) if isequal(options_.lik_init,2) error(['options diffuse_filter, lik_init and/or kalman_algo have contradictory settings']) else options_.lik_init = 3; end end % If options_.lik_init == 1 % set by default options_.qz_criterium to 1-1e-6 % and check options_.qz_criterium < 1-eps if options_.lik_init == 1 % Else % set by default options_.qz_criterium to 1+1e-6 if isequal(options_.lik_init,1) if isempty(options_.qz_criterium) options_.qz_criterium = 1-1e-6; elseif options_.qz_criterium > 1-eps error(['Estimation: option qz_criterium is too large for estimating ' ... 'a stationary model. If your model contains unit roots, use ' ... 'option diffuse_filter']) end elseif isempty(options_.qz_criterium) options_.qz_criterium = 1+1e-6; end % Set options related to filtered variables. if ~isequal(options_.filtered_vars,0) && isempty(options_.filter_step_ahead) options_.filter_step_ahead = 1; end if ~isequal(options_.filtered_vars,0) && isequal(options_.filter_step_ahead,0) options_.filter_step_ahead = 1; end if ~isequal(options_.filter_step_ahead,0) options_.nk = max(options_.filter_step_ahead); end % Set the name of the directory where (intermediary) results will be saved. if isempty(dname) M_.dname = M_.fname; else M_.dname = dname; end % Set priors over the estimated parameters. if ~isempty(estim_params_) [xparam1,estim_params_,bayestopt_,lb,ub,M_] = set_prior(estim_params_,M_,options_); end % Check that the provided mode_file is compatible with the current estimation settings. if ~isempty(estim_params_) && ~isempty(options_.mode_file) && ~options_.mh_posterior_mode_estimation number_of_estimated_parameters = length(xparam1); mode_file = load(options_.mode_file); if number_of_estimated_parameters>length(mode_file.xparam1) % More estimated parameters than parameters in the mode file. skipline() disp(['The posterior mode file ' options_.mode_file ' has been generated using another specification of the model or another model!']) disp(['Your mode file contains estimates for ' int2str(length(mode_file.xparam1)) ' parameters, while you are attempting to estimate ' int2str(number_of_estimated_parameters) ' parameters:']) md = []; xd = []; for i=1:number_of_estimated_parameters id = strmatch(deblank(bayestopt_.name(i,:)),mode_file.parameter_names,'exact'); if isempty(id) disp(['--> Estimated parameter ' bayestopt_.name{i} ' is not present in the loaded mode file (prior mean will be used, if possible).']) else xd = [xd; i]; md = [md; id]; end end for i=1:length(mode_file.xparam1) id = strmatch(mode_file.parameter_names{i},bayestopt_.name,'exact'); if isempty(id) disp(['--> Parameter ' mode_file.parameter_names{i} ' is not estimated according to the current mod file.']) end end if ~options_.mode_compute % The posterior mode is not estimated. error('Please change the mode_file option, the list of estimated parameters or set mode_compute>0.') else % The posterior mode is estimated, the Hessian evaluated at the mode is not needed so we set values for the parameters missing in the mode file using the prior mean. if ~isempty(xd) xparam1(xd) = mode_file.xparam1(md); else error('Please remove the mode_file option.') end end elseif number_of_estimated_parameters Estimated parameter ' deblank(bayestopt_.name(i,:)) ' is not present in the loaded mode file (prior mean will be used, if possible).']) else xd = [xd; i]; md = [md; id]; end end for i=1:length(mode_file.xparam1) id = strmatch(mode_file.parameter_names{i},bayestopt_.name,'exact'); if isempty(id) disp(['--> Parameter ' mode_file.parameter_names{i} ' is not estimated according to the current mod file.']) end end if ~options_.mode_compute % The posterior mode is not estimated. If possible, fix the mode_file. if isequal(length(xd),number_of_estimated_parameters) disp('==> Fix mode file (remove unused parameters).') xparam1 = mode_file.xparam1(md); if isfield(mode_file,'hh') hh = mode_file.hh(md,md); end else error('Please change the mode_file option, the list of estimated parameters or set mode_compute>0.') end else % The posterior mode is estimated, the Hessian evaluated at the mode is not needed so we set values for the parameters missing in the mode file using the prior mean. if ~isempty(xd) xparam1(xd) = mode_file.xparam1(md); else % None of the estimated parameters are present in the mode_file. error('Please remove the mode_file option.') end end else % The number of declared estimated parameters match the number of parameters in the mode file. % Check that the parameters in the mode file and according to the current mod file are identical. if ~isfield(mode_file,'parameter_names') disp(['The posterior mode file ' options_.mode_file ' has been generated using an older version of Dynare. It cannot be verified if it matches the present model. Proceed at your own risk.']) mode_file.parameter_names=deblank(bayestopt_.name); %set names end if isequal(mode_file.parameter_names, bayestopt_.name) xparam1 = mode_file.xparam1; if isfield(mode_file,'hh') hh = mode_file.hh; end else skipline() disp(['The posterior mode file ' options_.mode_file ' has been generated using another specification of the model or another model!']) % Check if this only an ordering issue or if the missing parameters can be initialized with the prior mean. md = []; xd = []; for i=1:number_of_estimated_parameters id = strmatch(deblank(bayestopt_.name(i,:)), mode_file.parameter_names,'exact'); if isempty(id) disp(['--> Estimated parameter ' bayestopt_.name{i} ' is not present in the loaded mode file.']) else xd = [xd; i]; md = [md; id]; end end if ~options_.mode_compute % The posterior mode is not estimated if isequal(length(xd), number_of_estimated_parameters) % This is an ordering issue. xparam1 = mode_file.xparam1(md); if isfield(mode_file,'hh') hh = mode_file.hh(md,md); end else error('Please change the mode_file option, the list of estimated parameters or set mode_compute>0.') end else % The posterior mode is estimated, the Hessian evaluated at the mode is not needed so we set values for the parameters missing in the mode file using the prior mean. if ~isempty(xd) xparam1(xd) = mode_file.xparam1(md); if isfield(mode_file,'hh') hh(xd,xd) = mode_file.hh(md,md); end else % None of the estimated parameters are present in the mode_file. error('Please remove the mode_file option.') end end end end skipline() end if ~isempty(estim_params_) if ~isempty(bayestopt_) && any(bayestopt_.pshape > 0) % Plot prior densities. if ~options_.nograph && options_.plot_priors plot_priors(bayestopt_,M_,estim_params_,options_) end % Set prior bounds bounds = prior_bounds(bayestopt_,options_); bounds(:,1)=max(bounds(:,1),lb); bounds(:,2)=min(bounds(:,2),ub); else % estimated parameters but no declared priors % No priors are declared so Dynare will estimate the model by % maximum likelihood with inequality constraints for the parameters. options_.mh_replic = 0;% No metropolis. bounds(:,1) = lb; bounds(:,2) = ub; end % Test if initial values of the estimated parameters are all between the prior lower and upper bounds. check_prior_bounds(xparam1,bounds,M_,estim_params_,options_,bayestopt_) lb = bounds(:,1); ub = bounds(:,2); bayestopt_.lb = lb; bayestopt_.ub = ub; end if isempty(estim_params_)% If estim_params_ is empty (e.g. when running the smoother on a calibrated model) if ~options_.smoother error('Estimation: the ''estimated_params'' block is mandatory (unless you are running a smoother)') end xparam1 = []; bayestopt_.lb = []; bayestopt_.ub = []; bayestopt_.jscale = []; bayestopt_.pshape = []; bayestopt_.p1 = []; bayestopt_.p2 = []; bayestopt_.p3 = []; bayestopt_.p4 = []; bayestopt_.p5 = []; bayestopt_.p6 = []; bayestopt_.p7 = []; estim_params_.nvx = 0; estim_params_.nvn = 0; estim_params_.ncx = 0; estim_params_.ncn = 0; estim_params_.np = 0; end % storing prior parameters in results oo_.prior.mean = bayestopt_.p1; oo_.prior.mode = bayestopt_.p5; oo_.prior.variance = diag(bayestopt_.p2.^2); oo_.prior.hyperparameters.first = bayestopt_.p6; oo_.prior.hyperparameters.second = bayestopt_.p7; % Is there a linear trend in the measurement equation? if ~isfield(options_,'trend_coeffs') % No! bayestopt_.with_trend = 0; else% Yes! bayestopt_.with_trend = 1; bayestopt_.trend_coeff = {}; trend_coeffs = options_.trend_coeffs; nt = length(trend_coeffs); for i=1:options_.number_of_observed_variables if i > length(trend_coeffs) bayestopt_.trend_coeff{i} = '0'; else bayestopt_.trend_coeff{i} = trend_coeffs{i}; end end end % Set the "size" of penalty. objective_function_penalty_base = 1e8; % Get informations about the variables of the model. dr = set_state_space(oo_.dr,M_,options_); oo_.dr = dr; nstatic = M_.nstatic; % Number of static variables. npred = M_.nspred; % Number of predetermined variables. nspred = M_.nspred; % Number of predetermined variables in the state equation. % Setting resticted state space (observed + predetermined variables) var_obs_index = []; k1 = []; for i=1:options_.number_of_observed_variables var_obs_index = [var_obs_index; strmatch(options_.varobs{i},M_.endo_names(dr.order_var,:),'exact')]; k1 = [k1; strmatch(options_.varobs{i},M_.endo_names, 'exact')]; end % Define union of observed and state variables k2 = union(var_obs_index,[M_.nstatic+1:M_.nstatic+M_.nspred]', 'rows'); % Set restrict_state to postion of observed + state variables in expanded state vector. oo_.dr.restrict_var_list = k2; bayestopt_.restrict_var_list = k2; % set mf0 to positions of state variables in restricted state vector for likelihood computation. [junk,bayestopt_.mf0] = ismember([M_.nstatic+1:M_.nstatic+M_.nspred]',k2); % Set mf1 to positions of observed variables in restricted state vector for likelihood computation. [junk,bayestopt_.mf1] = ismember(var_obs_index,k2); % Set mf2 to positions of observed variables in expanded state vector for filtering and smoothing. bayestopt_.mf2 = var_obs_index; bayestopt_.mfys = k1; [junk,ic] = intersect(k2,nstatic+(1:npred)'); oo_.dr.restrict_columns = [ic; length(k2)+(1:nspred-npred)']; k3 = []; k3p = []; if options_.selected_variables_only for i=1:size(var_list_,1) k3 = [k3; strmatch(var_list_(i,:),M_.endo_names(dr.order_var,:), 'exact')]; k3p = [k3; strmatch(var_list_(i,:),M_.endo_names, 'exact')]; end else k3 = (1:M_.endo_nbr)'; k3p = (1:M_.endo_nbr)'; end % Define union of observed and state variables if options_.block == 1 k1 = k1'; [k2, i_posA, i_posB] = union(k1', M_.state_var', 'rows'); % Set restrict_state to postion of observed + state variables in expanded state vector. oo_.dr.restrict_var_list = [k1(i_posA) M_.state_var(sort(i_posB))]; % set mf0 to positions of state variables in restricted state vector for likelihood computation. [junk,bayestopt_.mf0] = ismember(M_.state_var',oo_.dr.restrict_var_list); % Set mf1 to positions of observed variables in restricted state vector for likelihood computation. [junk,bayestopt_.mf1] = ismember(k1,oo_.dr.restrict_var_list); % Set mf2 to positions of observed variables in expanded state vector for filtering and smoothing. bayestopt_.mf2 = var_obs_index; bayestopt_.mfys = k1; oo_.dr.restrict_columns = [size(i_posA,1)+(1:size(M_.state_var,2))]; [k2, i_posA, i_posB] = union(k3p, M_.state_var', 'rows'); bayestopt_.smoother_var_list = [k3p(i_posA); M_.state_var(sort(i_posB))']; [junk,junk,bayestopt_.smoother_saved_var_list] = intersect(k3p,bayestopt_.smoother_var_list(:)); [junk,ic] = intersect(bayestopt_.smoother_var_list,M_.state_var); bayestopt_.smoother_restrict_columns = ic; [junk,bayestopt_.smoother_mf] = ismember(k1, bayestopt_.smoother_var_list); else k2 = union(var_obs_index,[M_.nstatic+1:M_.nstatic+M_.nspred]', 'rows'); % Set restrict_state to postion of observed + state variables in expanded state vector. oo_.dr.restrict_var_list = k2; % set mf0 to positions of state variables in restricted state vector for likelihood computation. [junk,bayestopt_.mf0] = ismember([M_.nstatic+1:M_.nstatic+M_.nspred]',k2); % Set mf1 to positions of observed variables in restricted state vector for likelihood computation. [junk,bayestopt_.mf1] = ismember(var_obs_index,k2); % Set mf2 to positions of observed variables in expanded state vector for filtering and smoothing. bayestopt_.mf2 = var_obs_index; bayestopt_.mfys = k1; [junk,ic] = intersect(k2,nstatic+(1:npred)'); oo_.dr.restrict_columns = [ic; length(k2)+(1:nspred-npred)']; bayestopt_.smoother_var_list = union(k2,k3); [junk,junk,bayestopt_.smoother_saved_var_list] = intersect(k3,bayestopt_.smoother_var_list(:)); [junk,ic] = intersect(bayestopt_.smoother_var_list,nstatic+(1:npred)'); bayestopt_.smoother_restrict_columns = ic; [junk,bayestopt_.smoother_mf] = ismember(var_obs_index, bayestopt_.smoother_var_list); end; if options_.analytic_derivation, options_.analytic_derivation = 1; if ~(exist('sylvester3','file')==2), dynareroot = strrep(which('dynare'),'dynare.m',''); addpath([dynareroot 'gensylv']) end if estim_params_.np, % check if steady state changes param values M=M_; M.params(estim_params_.param_vals(:,1)) = M.params(estim_params_.param_vals(:,1))*1.01; if options_.diffuse_filter steadystate_check_flag = 0; else steadystate_check_flag = 1; end [tmp1, params] = evaluate_steady_state(oo_.steady_state,M,options_,oo_,steadystate_check_flag); change_flag=any(find(params-M.params)); if change_flag, disp('The steadystate file changed the values for the following parameters: '), disp(M.param_names(find(params-M.params),:)) disp('The derivatives of jacobian and steady-state will be computed numerically'), disp('(re-set options_.analytic_derivation_mode= -2)'), options_.analytic_derivation_mode= -2; end end end % If jscale isn't specified for an estimated parameter, use global option options_.jscale, set to 0.2, by default. k = find(isnan(bayestopt_.jscale)); bayestopt_.jscale(k) = options_.mh_jscale; % Build the dataset [dataset_, dataset_info] = makedataset(options_, options_.dsge_var*options_.dsge_varlag, gsa_flag); % setting steadystate_check_flag option if options_.diffuse_filter steadystate_check_flag = 0; else steadystate_check_flag = 1; end % If the steady state of the observed variables is non zero, set noconstant equal 0 () M = M_; nvx = estim_params_.nvx; ncx = estim_params_.ncx; nvn = estim_params_.nvn; ncn = estim_params_.ncn; if estim_params_.np M.params(estim_params_.param_vals(:,1)) = xparam1(nvx+ncx+nvn+ncn+1:end); end [oo_.steady_state, params] = evaluate_steady_state(oo_.steady_state,M,options_,oo_,steadystate_check_flag); if all(abs(oo_.steady_state(bayestopt_.mfys))<1e-9) options_.noconstant = 1; else options_.noconstant = 0; % If the data are prefiltered then there must not be constants in the % measurement equation of the DSGE model or in the DSGE-VAR model. if options_.prefilter skipline() disp('You have specified the option "prefilter" to demean your data but the') disp('steady state of of the observed variables is non zero.') disp('Either change the measurement equations, by centering the observed') disp('variables in the model block, or drop the prefiltering.') error('The option "prefilter" is inconsistent with the non-zero mean measurement equations in the model.') end end