var y y_s R pie dq pie_s de A y_obs pie_obs R_obs; varexo e_R e_q e_ys e_pies e_A; parameters psi1 psi2 psi3 rho_R tau alpha rr k rho_q rho_A rho_ys rho_pies; psi1 = 1.54; psi2 = 0.25; psi3 = 0.25; rho_R = 0.5; alpha = 0.3; rr = 2.51; k = 0.5; tau = 0.5; rho_q = 0.4; rho_A = 0.2; rho_ys = 0.9; rho_pies = 0.7; model(linear); y = y(+1) - (tau +alpha*(2-alpha)*(1-tau))*(R-pie(+1))-alpha*(tau +alpha*(2-alpha)*(1-tau))*dq(+1) + alpha*(2-alpha)*((1-tau)/tau)*(y_s-y_s(+1))-A(+1); pie = exp(-rr/400)*pie(+1)+alpha*exp(-rr/400)*dq(+1)-alpha*dq+(k/(tau+alpha*(2-alpha)*(1-tau)))*y+alpha*(2-alpha)*(1-tau)/(tau*(tau+alpha*(2-alpha)*(1-tau)))*y_s; pie = de+(1-alpha)*dq+pie_s; R = rho_R*R(-1)+(1-rho_R)*(psi1*pie+psi2*(y+alpha*(2-alpha)*((1-tau)/tau)*y_s)+psi3*de)+e_R; dq = rho_q*dq(-1)+e_q; y_s = rho_ys*y_s(-1)+e_ys; pie_s = rho_pies*pie_s(-1)+e_pies; A = rho_A*A(-1)+e_A; y_obs = y-y(-1)+A; pie_obs = 4*pie; R_obs = 4*R; end; epilogue; // annualized level of y ya = exp(y)+exp(y(-1))+exp(y(-2))+exp(y(-3)); // annualized growth rate of y gya = ya/ya(-4)-1; end; shocks; var e_R = 1.25^2; var e_q = 2.5^2; var e_A = 1.89; var e_ys = 1.89; var e_pies = 1.89; end; varobs y_obs R_obs pie_obs dq de; estimated_params; psi1 , gamma_pdf,1.5,0.5; psi2 , gamma_pdf,0.25,0.125; psi3 , gamma_pdf,0.25,0.125; rho_R ,beta_pdf,0.5,0.2; alpha ,beta_pdf,0.3,0.1; rr ,gamma_pdf,2.5,1; k , gamma_pdf,0.5,0.25; tau ,gamma_pdf,0.5,0.2; rho_q ,beta_pdf,0.4,0.2; rho_A ,beta_pdf,0.5,0.2; rho_ys ,beta_pdf,0.8,0.1; rho_pies,beta_pdf,0.7,0.15; stderr e_R,inv_gamma_pdf,1.2533,0.6551; stderr e_q,inv_gamma_pdf,2.5066,1.3103; stderr e_A,inv_gamma_pdf,1.2533,0.6551; stderr e_ys,inv_gamma_pdf,1.2533,0.6551; stderr e_pies,inv_gamma_pdf,1.88,0.9827; end; estimation(datafile='../ls2003/data_ca1',first_obs=8,nobs=79,mh_nblocks=10,prefilter=1,mh_jscale=0.5,mh_replic=0,tex); close all shock_groups(name=trade); supply = e_A ; trade = e_q ; monetary = e_R ; end; shock_groups(name=row); supply = e_A ; 'RoW shocks' = e_q e_ys e_pies ; monetary = e_R ; end; init2shocks; dq e_q; A e_A; end; options_.initial_date=dates('1989Q4'); % date arbitrarily set for testing purposes shock_decomposition(nograph, with_epilogue); // test for nothing to squeeze squeeze_shock_decomposition; // standard plot plot_shock_decomposition y_obs R_obs pie_obs dq de; // grouped shocks plot_shock_decomposition(use_shock_groups=trade) y_obs R_obs pie_obs dq de; // test datailed, custom name and yoy plots plot_shock_decomposition(detail_plot, fig_name = MR, type = yoy) y_obs R_obs pie_obs dq de; // testing init2shocks initial_condition_decomposition(detail_plot, type=aoa, steadystate, write_xls, plot_init_date=1991Q1, plot_end_date=1995Q4) R_obs; plot_shock_decomposition(init2shocks) y_obs R_obs pie_obs dq de; plot_shock_decomposition(init2shocks,use_shock_groups=trade) y_obs R_obs pie_obs dq de; // testing flip and diff plot_shock_decomposition(diff, use_shock_groups=trade) y_obs; plot_shock_decomposition(flip, use_shock_groups=trade) de; close all, // testing realtime decomposition // first compute realtime decompositions [pre-processor not yet available] realtime_shock_decomposition(forecast=8, save_realtime=[5 9 13 17 21 25 29 33 37 41 45 49 53 57 61 65 69 73 77]) y_obs R_obs pie_obs dq de; // test squeeze squeeze_shock_decomposition; //realtime pooled plot_shock_decomposition(realtime = 1) y_obs R_obs pie_obs dq de; //conditional pooled plot_shock_decomposition(realtime = 2) y_obs R_obs pie_obs dq de; // conditional 8-step ahead decomposition, given 1989q4 plot_shock_decomposition(detail_plot, realtime = 2, vintage = 29) y_obs R_obs pie_obs dq de; close all, //forecast pooled plot_shock_decomposition(realtime = 3) y_obs R_obs pie_obs dq de; // forecast 8-step ahead decomposition, given 1989q4 plot_shock_decomposition(detail_plot, realtime = 3, vintage = 29) y_obs R_obs pie_obs dq de; close all, // now I test annualized variables // this also triggers re-computing of decompositions since y was not present in squeeze set plot_shock_decomposition(detail_plot, type = aoa) y; plot_shock_decomposition(detail_plot, type = aoa) ya; plot_shock_decomposition(realtime = 1) y; plot_shock_decomposition(realtime = 1, vintage = 29) y; plot_shock_decomposition(realtime = 2, vintage = 29) y; plot_shock_decomposition(realtime = 3, vintage = 29) y; close all //test uimenu for groups plot_shock_decomposition(detail_plot, interactive, use_shock_groups = row, type = qoq, plot_init_date=2004Q1) y_obs R_obs pie_obs dq de; plot_shock_decomposition(detail_plot, interactive, realtime = 3, vintage = 29) y_obs R_obs pie_obs dq de; close all, // testing realtime decomposition with fast_realtime option realtime_shock_decomposition(fast_realtime=75) y_obs R_obs pie_obs dq de; // re-test squeeze squeeze_shock_decomposition; collect_latex_files; if system(['pdflatex -halt-on-error -interaction=batchmode ' M_.fname '_TeX_binder.tex']) error('TeX-File did not compile.') end