function [xparam1, estim_params_, bayestopt_, lb, ub, M_]=set_prior(estim_params_, M_, options_) % function [xparam1,estim_params_,bayestopt_,lb,ub]=set_prior(estim_params_) % sets prior distributions % % INPUTS % o estim_params_ [structure] characterizing parameters to be estimated. % o M_ [structure] characterizing the model. % o options_ [structure] % % OUTPUTS % o xparam1 [double] vector of parameters to be estimated (initial values) % o estim_params_ [structure] characterizing parameters to be estimated % o bayestopt_ [structure] characterizing priors % o lb [double] vector of lower bounds for the estimated parameters. % o ub [double] vector of upper bounds for the estimated parameters. % o M_ [structure] characterizing the model. % % SPECIAL REQUIREMENTS % None % Copyright (C) 2003-2011 Dynare Team % % This file is part of Dynare. % % Dynare is free software: you can redistribute it and/or modify % it under the terms of the GNU General Public License as published by % the Free Software Foundation, either version 3 of the License, or % (at your option) any later version. % % Dynare is distributed in the hope that it will be useful, % but WITHOUT ANY WARRANTY; without even the implied warranty of % MERCHANTABILITY or FITNESS FOR A PARTICULAR PURPOSE. See the % GNU General Public License for more details. % % You should have received a copy of the GNU General Public License % along with Dynare. If not, see . nvx = size(estim_params_.var_exo,1); nvn = size(estim_params_.var_endo,1); ncx = size(estim_params_.corrx,1); ncn = size(estim_params_.corrn,1); np = size(estim_params_.param_vals,1); estim_params_.nvx = nvx; estim_params_.nvn = nvn; estim_params_.ncx = ncx; estim_params_.ncn = ncn; estim_params_.np = np; xparam1 = []; ub = []; lb = []; bayestopt_.pshape = []; bayestopt_.p1 = []; % prior mean bayestopt_.p2 = []; % prior standard deviation bayestopt_.p3 = []; % lower bound bayestopt_.p4 = []; % upper bound bayestopt_.p5 = []; % prior mode bayestopt_.p6 = []; % first hyper-parameter (\alpha for the BETA and GAMMA distributions, s for the INVERSE GAMMAs, expectation for the GAUSSIAN distribution, lower bound for the UNIFORM distribution). bayestopt_.p7 = []; % second hyper-parameter (\beta for the BETA and GAMMA distributions, \nu for the INVERSE GAMMAs, standard deviation for the GAUSSIAN distribution, upper bound for the UNIFORM distribution). bayestopt_.jscale = []; bayestopt_.name = []; if nvx xparam1 = estim_params_.var_exo(:,2); ub = estim_params_.var_exo(:,4); lb = estim_params_.var_exo(:,3); bayestopt_.pshape = estim_params_.var_exo(:,5); bayestopt_.p1 = estim_params_.var_exo(:,6); bayestopt_.p2 = estim_params_.var_exo(:,7); bayestopt_.p3 = estim_params_.var_exo(:,8); bayestopt_.p4 = estim_params_.var_exo(:,9); bayestopt_.jscale = estim_params_.var_exo(:,10); bayestopt_.name = cellstr(M_.exo_names(estim_params_.var_exo(:,1),:)); end if nvn if isequal(M_.H,0) nvarobs = size(options_.varobs,1); M_.H = zeros(nvarobs,nvarobs); end for i=1:nvn estim_params_.var_endo(i,1) = strmatch(deblank(M_.endo_names(estim_params_.var_endo(i,1),:)),deblank(options_.varobs),'exact'); end xparam1 = [xparam1; estim_params_.var_endo(:,2)]; ub = [ub; estim_params_.var_endo(:,4)]; lb = [lb; estim_params_.var_endo(:,3)]; bayestopt_.pshape = [ bayestopt_.pshape; estim_params_.var_endo(:,5)]; bayestopt_.p1 = [ bayestopt_.p1; estim_params_.var_endo(:,6)]; bayestopt_.p2 = [ bayestopt_.p2; estim_params_.var_endo(:,7)]; bayestopt_.p3 = [ bayestopt_.p3; estim_params_.var_endo(:,8)]; bayestopt_.p4 = [ bayestopt_.p4; estim_params_.var_endo(:,9)]; bayestopt_.jscale = [ bayestopt_.jscale; estim_params_.var_endo(:,10)]; if isempty(bayestopt_.name) bayestopt_.name = cellstr(char(options_.varobs(estim_params_.var_endo(:,1),:))); else bayestopt_.name = cellstr(char(char(bayestopt_.name), options_.varobs(estim_params_.var_endo(:,1),:))); end end if ncx xparam1 = [xparam1; estim_params_.corrx(:,3)]; ub = [ub; max(min(estim_params_.corrx(:,5),1),-1)]; lb = [lb; max(min(estim_params_.corrx(:,4),1),-1)]; bayestopt_.pshape = [ bayestopt_.pshape; estim_params_.corrx(:,6)]; bayestopt_.p1 = [ bayestopt_.p1; estim_params_.corrx(:,7)]; bayestopt_.p2 = [ bayestopt_.p2; estim_params_.corrx(:,8)]; bayestopt_.p3 = [ bayestopt_.p3; estim_params_.corrx(:,9)]; bayestopt_.p4 = [ bayestopt_.p4; estim_params_.corrx(:,10)]; bayestopt_.jscale = [ bayestopt_.jscale; estim_params_.corrx(:,11)]; if isempty(bayestopt_.name) bayestopt_.name = cellstr(char(char(strcat(cellstr(M_.exo_names(estim_params_.corrx(:,1),:)), ... ',' , cellstr(M_.exo_names(estim_params_.corrx(:,2),:)))))); else bayestopt_.name = cellstr(char(char(bayestopt_.name), char(strcat(cellstr(M_.exo_names(estim_params_.corrx(:,1),:)), ... ',' , cellstr(M_.exo_names(estim_params_.corrx(:,2),:)))))); end end if ncn if isequal(M_.H,0) nvarobs = size(options_.varobs,1); M_.H = zeros(nvarobs,nvarobs); end xparam1 = [xparam1; estim_params_.corrn(:,3)]; ub = [ub; max(min(estim_params_.corrn(:,5),1),-1)]; lb = [lb; max(min(estim_params_.corrn(:,4),1),-1)]; bayestopt_.pshape = [ bayestopt_.pshape; estim_params_.corrn(:,6)]; bayestopt_.p1 = [ bayestopt_.p1; estim_params_.corrn(:,7)]; bayestopt_.p2 = [ bayestopt_.p2; estim_params_.corrn(:,8)]; bayestopt_.p3 = [ bayestopt_.p3; estim_params_.corrn(:,9)]; bayestopt_.p4 = [ bayestopt_.p4; estim_params_.corrn(:,10)]; bayestopt_.jscale = [ bayestopt_.jscale; estim_params_.corrn(:,11)]; if isempty(bayestopt_.name) bayestopt_.name = cellstr(char(char(strcat(cellstr(M_.endo_names(estim_params_.corrn(:,1),:)),... ',' , cellstr(M_.endo_names(estim_params_.corrn(:,2),:)))))); else bayestopt_.name = cellstr(char(char(bayestopt_.name), char(strcat(cellstr(M_.endo_names(estim_params_.corrn(:,1),:)),... ',' , cellstr(M_.endo_names(estim_params_.corrn(:,2),:)))))); end end if np xparam1 = [xparam1; estim_params_.param_vals(:,2)]; ub = [ub; estim_params_.param_vals(:,4)]; lb = [lb; estim_params_.param_vals(:,3)]; bayestopt_.pshape = [ bayestopt_.pshape; estim_params_.param_vals(:,5)]; bayestopt_.p1 = [ bayestopt_.p1; estim_params_.param_vals(:,6)]; bayestopt_.p2 = [ bayestopt_.p2; estim_params_.param_vals(:,7)]; bayestopt_.p3 = [ bayestopt_.p3; estim_params_.param_vals(:,8)]; bayestopt_.p4 = [ bayestopt_.p4; estim_params_.param_vals(:,9)]; bayestopt_.jscale = [ bayestopt_.jscale; estim_params_.param_vals(:,10)]; if isempty(bayestopt_.name) bayestopt_.name = cellstr(char(M_.param_names(estim_params_.param_vals(:,1),:))); else bayestopt_.name = cellstr(char(char(bayestopt_.name),M_.param_names(estim_params_.param_vals(:,1),:))); end end bayestopt_.ub = ub; bayestopt_.lb = lb; bayestopt_.p6 = NaN(size(bayestopt_.p1)) ; bayestopt_.p7 = bayestopt_.p6 ; % generalized location parameters by default for beta distribution k = find(bayestopt_.pshape == 1); k1 = find(isnan(bayestopt_.p3(k))); bayestopt_.p3(k(k1)) = zeros(length(k1),1); k1 = find(isnan(bayestopt_.p4(k))); bayestopt_.p4(k(k1)) = ones(length(k1),1); for i=1:length(k) mu = (bayestopt_.p1(k(i))-bayestopt_.p3(k(i)))/(bayestopt_.p4(k(i))-bayestopt_.p3(k(i))); stdd = bayestopt_.p2(k(i))/(bayestopt_.p4(k(i))-bayestopt_.p3(k(i))); bayestopt_.p6(k(i)) = (1-mu)*mu^2/stdd^2 - mu ; bayestopt_.p7(k(i)) = bayestopt_.p6(k(i))*(1/mu-1) ; m = compute_prior_mode([ bayestopt_.p6(k(i)) , bayestopt_.p7(k(i)) , bayestopt_.p3(k(i)) , bayestopt_.p4(k(i)) ],1); if length(m)==1 bayestopt_.p5(k(i)) = m; else disp(['Prior distribution for parameter ' bayestopt_.name(k(i)) ' has two modes!']) bayestopt_.p5(k(i)) = bayestopt_.p1(k(i)) ; end end % generalized location parameter by default for gamma distribution k = find(bayestopt_.pshape == 2); k1 = find(isnan(bayestopt_.p3(k))); k2 = find(isnan(bayestopt_.p4(k))); bayestopt_.p3(k(k1)) = zeros(length(k1),1); bayestopt_.p4(k(k2)) = Inf(length(k2),1); for i=1:length(k) mu = bayestopt_.p1(k(i))-bayestopt_.p3(k(i)); bayestopt_.p7(k(i)) = bayestopt_.p2(k(i))^2/mu ; bayestopt_.p6(k(i)) = mu/bayestopt_.p7(k(i)) ; bayestopt_.p5(k(i)) = compute_prior_mode([ bayestopt_.p6(k(i)) , bayestopt_.p7(k(i)) , bayestopt_.p3(k(i)) ], 2) ; end % truncation parameters by default for normal distribution k = find(bayestopt_.pshape == 3); k1 = find(isnan(bayestopt_.p3(k))); bayestopt_.p3(k(k1)) = -Inf*ones(length(k1),1); k1 = find(isnan(bayestopt_.p4(k))); bayestopt_.p4(k(k1)) = Inf*ones(length(k1),1); for i=1:length(k) bayestopt_.p6(k(i)) = bayestopt_.p1(k(i)) ; bayestopt_.p7(k(i)) = bayestopt_.p2(k(i)) ; bayestopt_.p5(k(i)) = bayestopt_.p1(k(i)) ; end % inverse gamma distribution (type 1) k = find(bayestopt_.pshape == 4); k1 = find(isnan(bayestopt_.p3(k))); k2 = find(isnan(bayestopt_.p4(k))); bayestopt_.p3(k(k1)) = zeros(length(k1),1); bayestopt_.p4(k(k2)) = Inf(length(k2),1); for i=1:length(k) [bayestopt_.p6(k(i)),bayestopt_.p7(k(i))] = ... inverse_gamma_specification(bayestopt_.p1(k(i))-bayestopt_.p3(k(i)),bayestopt_.p2(k(i)),1) ; bayestopt_.p5(k(i)) = compute_prior_mode([ bayestopt_.p6(k(i)) , bayestopt_.p7(k(i)) , bayestopt_.p3(k(i)) ], 4) ; end % uniform distribution k = find(bayestopt_.pshape == 5); for i=1:length(k) [bayestopt_.p1(k(i)),bayestopt_.p2(k(i)),bayestopt_.p6(k(i)),bayestopt_.p7(k(i))] = ... uniform_specification(bayestopt_.p1(k(i)),bayestopt_.p2(k(i)),bayestopt_.p3(k(i)),bayestopt_.p4(k(i))); bayestopt_.p3(k(i)) = bayestopt_.p6(k(i)) ; bayestopt_.p4(k(i)) = bayestopt_.p7(k(i)) ; bayestopt_.p5(k(i)) = NaN ; end % inverse gamma distribution (type 2) k = find(bayestopt_.pshape == 6); k1 = find(isnan(bayestopt_.p3(k))); k2 = find(isnan(bayestopt_.p4(k))); bayestopt_.p3(k(k1)) = zeros(length(k1),1); bayestopt_.p4(k(k2)) = Inf(length(k2),1); for i=1:length(k) [bayestopt_.p6(k(i)),bayestopt_.p7(k(i))] = ... inverse_gamma_specification(bayestopt_.p1(k(i))-bayestopt_.p3(k(i)),bayestopt_.p2(k(i)),2); bayestopt_.p5(k(i)) = compute_prior_mode([ bayestopt_.p6(k(i)) , bayestopt_.p7(k(i)) , bayestopt_.p3(k(i)) ], 6) ; end k = find(isnan(xparam1)); xparam1(k) = bayestopt_.p1(k); % I create subfolder M_.dname/prior if needed. CheckPath('prior'); % I save the prior definition if the prior has changed. if exist([ M_.dname '/prior/definition.mat']) old = load([M_.dname '/prior/definition.mat'],'bayestopt_'); prior_has_changed = 0; if length(bayestopt_.p1)==length(old.bayestopt_.p1) if any(bayestopt_.p1-old.bayestopt_.p1) prior_has_changed = 1; end if any(bayestopt_.p2-old.bayestopt_.p2) prior_has_changed = 1; end if any(bayestopt_.p3-old.bayestopt_.p3) prior_has_changed = 1; end if any(bayestopt_.p4-old.bayestopt_.p4) prior_has_changed = 1; end if any(bayestopt_.p5-old.bayestopt_.p5) prior_has_changed = 1; end if any(bayestopt_.p6-old.bayestopt_.p6) prior_has_changed = 1; end if any(bayestopt_.p7-old.bayestopt_.p7) prior_has_changed = 1; end else prior_has_changed = 1; end if prior_has_changed delete([M_.dname '/prior/definition.mat']); save([M_.dname '/prior/definition.mat'],'bayestopt_'); end else save([M_.dname '/prior/definition.mat'],'bayestopt_'); end % initialize persistent variables in priordens() priordens(xparam1,bayestopt_.pshape,bayestopt_.p6,bayestopt_.p7, ... bayestopt_.p3,bayestopt_.p4,1); % Put bayestopt_ in matlab's workspace assignin('base','bayestopt_',bayestopt_);