function [LIK, lik] = univariate_kalman_filter(T,R,Q,H,P,Y,start,mf,kalman_tol,riccati_tol,data_index,number_of_observations,no_more_missing_observations) % Computes the likelihood of a stationnary state space model (univariate approach). % % INPUTS % T [double] mm*mm transition matrix of the state equation. % R [double] mm*rr matrix, mapping structural innovations to state variables. % Q [double] rr*rr covariance matrix of the structural innovations. % H [double] pp*1 (zeros(pp,1) if no measurement errors) variances of the measurement errors. % P [double] mm*mm variance-covariance matrix with stationary variables % Y [double] pp*smpl matrix of (detrended) data, where pp is the maximum number of observed variables. % start [integer] scalar, likelihood evaluation starts at 'start'. % mf [integer] pp*1 vector of indices. % kalman_tol [double] scalar, tolerance parameter (rcond). % riccati_tol [double] scalar, tolerance parameter (riccati iteration). % data_index [cell] 1*smpl cell of column vectors of indices. % number_of_observations [integer] scalar. % no_more_missing_observations [integer] scalar. % % OUTPUTS % LIK [double] scalar, likelihood % lik [double] vector, density of observations in each period. % % REFERENCES % See "Filtering and Smoothing of State Vector for Diffuse State Space % Models", S.J. Koopman and J. Durbin (2003, in Journal of Time Series % Analysis, vol. 24(1), pp. 85-98). % % NOTES % The vector "lik" is used to evaluate the jacobian of the likelihood. % Copyright (C) 2004-2008 Dynare Team % % This file is part of Dynare. % % Dynare is free software: you can redistribute it and/or modify % it under the terms of the GNU General Public License as published by % the Free Software Foundation, either version 3 of the License, or % (at your option) any later version. % % Dynare is distributed in the hope that it will be useful, % but WITHOUT ANY WARRANTY; without even the implied warranty of % MERCHANTABILITY or FITNESS FOR A PARTICULAR PURPOSE. See the % GNU General Public License for more details. % % You should have received a copy of the GNU General Public License % along with Dynare. If not, see . pp = size(Y,1); % Number of observed variables mm = size(T,1); % Number of variables in the state vector. smpl = size(Y,2); % Number of periods in the dataset. a = zeros(mm,1); % Initial condition of the state vector. QQ = R*Q*transpose(R); t = 0; lik = zeros(smpl+1,1); lik(smpl+1) = number_of_observations*log(2*pi); % the constant of minus two times the log-likelihood notsteady = 1; while notsteady && t kalman_tol Ki = P(:,MF(i))/Fi; a = a + Ki*prediction_error; P = P - (Fi*Ki)*transpose(Ki); lik(t) = lik(t) + log(Fi) + prediction_error*prediction_error/Fi; end end a = T*a; P = T*P*transpose(T) + QQ; if t>no_more_missing_observations notsteady = max(max(abs(P-oldP)))>riccati_tol; end end % Steady state kalman filter. while t < smpl PP = P; t = t+1; for i=1:pp prediction_error = Y(i,t) - a(mf(i)); Fi = PP(mf(i),mf(i)) + H(i); if Fi > kalman_tol Ki = PP(:,mf(i))/Fi; a = a + Ki*prediction_error; PP = PP - (Fi*Ki)*transpose(Ki); lik(t) = lik(t) + log(Fi) + prediction_error*prediction_error/Fi; end end a = T*a; end LIK = .5*(sum(lik(start:end))-(start-1)*lik(smpl+1)/smpl);