function perfect_foresight_solver() % Computes deterministic simulations % % INPUTS % None % % OUTPUTS % none % % ALGORITHM % % SPECIAL REQUIREMENTS % none % Copyright (C) 1996-2016 Dynare Team % % This file is part of Dynare. % % Dynare is free software: you can redistribute it and/or modify % it under the terms of the GNU General Public License as published by % the Free Software Foundation, either version 3 of the License, or % (at your option) any later version. % % Dynare is distributed in the hope that it will be useful, % but WITHOUT ANY WARRANTY; without even the implied warranty of % MERCHANTABILITY or FITNESS FOR A PARTICULAR PURPOSE. See the % GNU General Public License for more details. % % You should have received a copy of the GNU General Public License % along with Dynare. If not, see . global M_ options_ oo_ check_input_arguments(options_, M_, oo_); if isempty(options_.scalv) || options_.scalv == 0 options_.scalv = oo_.steady_state; end options_.scalv= 1; if options_.debug model_static = str2func([M_.fname,'_static']); for ii=1:size(oo_.exo_simul,1) [residual(:,ii)] = model_static(oo_.steady_state, oo_.exo_simul(ii,:),M_.params); end problematic_periods=find(any(isinf(residual)) | any(isnan(residual)))-M_.maximum_endo_lag; if ~isempty(problematic_periods) period_string=num2str(problematic_periods(1)); for ii=2:length(problematic_periods) period_string=[period_string, ', ', num2str(problematic_periods(ii))]; end fprintf('\n\nWARNING: Value for the exogenous variable(s) in period(s) %s inconsistent with the static model.\n',period_string); fprintf('WARNING: Check for division by 0.\n') end end initperiods = 1:M_.maximum_lag; lastperiods = (M_.maximum_lag+options_.periods+1):(M_.maximum_lag+options_.periods+M_.maximum_lead); oo_ = perfect_foresight_solver_core(M_,options_,oo_); % If simulation failed try homotopy. if ~oo_.deterministic_simulation.status && ~options_.no_homotopy skipline() disp('Simulation of the perfect foresight model failed!') disp('Switching to a homotopy method...') skipline() if ~M_.maximum_lag disp('Homotopy not implemented for purely forward models!') disp('Failed to solve the model!') disp('Return with empty oo_.endo_simul.') oo_.endo_simul = []; return end if ~M_.maximum_lead disp('Homotopy not implemented for purely backward models!') disp('Failed to solve the model!') disp('Return with empty oo_.endo_simul.') oo_.endo_simul = []; return end % Disable warnings if homotopy warning_old_state = warning; warning off all % Do not print anything oldverbositylevel = options_.verbosity; options_.verbosity = 0; % Set initial paths for the endogenous and exogenous variables. endoinit = repmat(oo_.steady_state, 1,M_.maximum_lag+options_.periods+M_.maximum_lead); exoinit = repmat(oo_.exo_steady_state',M_.maximum_lag+options_.periods+M_.maximum_lead,1); % Copy the current paths for the exogenous and endogenous variables. exosim = oo_.exo_simul; endosim = oo_.endo_simul; current_weight = 0; % Current weight of target point in convex combination. step = .5; % Set default step size. success_counter = 0; iteration = 0; fprintf('Iter. \t | Lambda \t | status \t | Max. residual\n') fprintf('++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++\n') while (step > options_.dynatol.x) if ~isequal(step,1) options_.verbosity = 0; end iteration = iteration+1; new_weight = current_weight + step; % Try this weight, and see if it succeeds if new_weight >= 1 new_weight = 1; % Don't go beyond target point step = new_weight - current_weight; end % Compute convex combination for exo path and initial/terminal endo conditions % But take care of not overwriting the computed part of oo_.endo_simul oo_.exo_simul = exosim*new_weight + exoinit*(1-new_weight); oo_.endo_simul(:,[initperiods, lastperiods]) = new_weight*endosim(:,[initperiods, lastperiods])+(1-new_weight)*endoinit(:,[initperiods, lastperiods]); % Detect Nans or complex numbers in the solution. path_with_nans = any(any(isnan(oo_.endo_simul))); path_with_cplx = any(any(~isreal(oo_.endo_simul))); if isequal(iteration, 1) % First iteration, same initial guess as in the first call to perfect_foresight_solver_core routine. oo_.endo_simul(:,M_.maximum_lag+1:end-M_.maximum_lead) = endoinit(:,1:options_.periods); elseif path_with_nans || path_with_cplx % If solver failed with NaNs or complex number, use previous solution as an initial guess. oo_.endo_simul(:,M_.maximum_lag+1:end-M_.maximum_lead) = saved_endo_simul(:,1+M_.maximum_lag:end-M_.maximum_lead); end % Make a copy of the paths. saved_endo_simul = oo_.endo_simul; % Solve for the paths of the endogenous variables. [oo_,me] = perfect_foresight_solver_core(M_,options_,oo_); if oo_.deterministic_simulation.status == 1 current_weight = new_weight; if current_weight >= 1 fprintf('%i \t | %1.5f \t | %s \t | %e\n', iteration, new_weight, 'succeeded', me) break end success_counter = success_counter + 1; if success_counter >= 3 success_counter = 0; step = step * 2; end fprintf('%i \t | %1.5f \t | %s \t | %e\n', iteration, new_weight, 'succeeded', me) else % If solver failed, then go back. oo_.endo_simul = saved_endo_simul; success_counter = 0; step = step / 2; if isreal(me) fprintf('%i \t | %1.5f \t | %s \t | %e\n', iteration, new_weight, 'failed', me) else fprintf('%i \t | %1.5f \t | %s \t | %s\n', iteration, new_weight, 'failed', 'Complex') end end end fprintf('++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++\n') skipline() options_.verbosity = oldverbositylevel; warning(warning_old_state); end if ~isreal(oo_.endo_simul(:)) %can only happen without bytecode y0 = real(oo_.endo_simul(:,1)); yT = real(oo_.endo_simul(:,options_.periods+2)); yy = real(oo_.endo_simul(:,2:options_.periods+1)); illi = M_.lead_lag_incidence'; [i_cols,junk,i_cols_j] = find(illi(:)); illi = illi(:,2:3); [i_cols_J1,junk,i_cols_1] = find(illi(:)); i_cols_T = nonzeros(M_.lead_lag_incidence(1:2,:)'); residuals = perfect_foresight_problem(yy(:),str2func([M_.fname '_dynamic']), y0, yT, ... oo_.exo_simul,M_.params,oo_.steady_state, ... M_.maximum_lag,options_.periods,M_.endo_nbr,i_cols, ... i_cols_J1, i_cols_1, i_cols_T, i_cols_j, ... M_.NNZDerivatives(1)); if max(abs(residuals))< options_.dynatol.f oo_.deterministic_simulation.status = 1; oo_.endo_simul=real(oo_.endo_simul); else oo_.deterministic_simulation.status = 0; disp('Simulation terminated with imaginary parts in the residuals or endogenous variables.') end end if oo_.deterministic_simulation.status == 1 disp('Perfect foresight solution found.') else disp('Failed to solve perfect foresight model') end skipline() dyn2vec; if ~isdates(options_.initial_period) && isnan(options_.initial_period) initial_period = dates(1,1); else initial_period = options_.initial_period; end ts = dseries(transpose(oo_.endo_simul),initial_period,cellstr(M_.endo_names)); assignin('base', 'Simulated_time_series', ts);