function [nvar,vartan,CovarFileNumber] = dsge_simulated_theoretical_covariance(SampleSize,nar,M_,options_,oo_,type) % function [nvar,vartan,CovarFileNumber] = dsge_simulated_theoretical_covariance(SampleSize,nar,M_,options_,oo_,type) % This function computes the posterior or prior distribution of the endogenous % variables second order moments. % % INPUTS % SampleSize [integer] scalar, number of simulations. % M_ [structure] Dynare structure describing the model. % options_ [structure] Dynare structure defining global options. % oo_ [structure] Dynare structure where the results are saved. % type [string] 'prior' or 'posterior' % % % OUTPUTS % nvar [integer] nvar is the number of stationary variables. % vartan [char] array of characters (with nvar rows). % CovarFileNumber [integer] scalar, number of prior or posterior data files (for covariance). % Copyright © 2007-2021 Dynare Team % % This file is part of Dynare. % % Dynare is free software: you can redistribute it and/or modify % it under the terms of the GNU General Public License as published by % the Free Software Foundation, either version 3 of the License, or % (at your option) any later version. % % Dynare is distributed in the hope that it will be useful, % but WITHOUT ANY WARRANTY; without even the implied warranty of % MERCHANTABILITY or FITNESS FOR A PARTICULAR PURPOSE. See the % GNU General Public License for more details. % % You should have received a copy of the GNU General Public License % along with Dynare. If not, see . nodecomposition = 1; % Get informations about the _posterior_draws files. if strcmpi(type,'posterior') NumberOfDrawsFiles = length(dir([M_.dname '/metropolis/' M_.fname '_' type '_draws*' ])); posterior = 1; elseif strcmpi(type,'prior') NumberOfDrawsFiles = length(dir([M_.dname '/prior/draws/' type '_draws*' ])); CheckPath('prior/moments',M_.dname); posterior = 0; else disp('dsge_simulated_theoretical_covariance:: Unknown type!') error(); end %delete old stale files before creating new ones if posterior delete_stale_file([M_.dname '/metropolis/' M_.fname '_Posterior2ndOrderMoments*']) delete_stale_file([M_.dname '/metropolis/' M_.fname '_PosteriorCorrelations*']); else delete_stale_file([M_.dname '/prior/moments/' M_.fname '_Prior2ndOrderMoments*']) delete_stale_file([M_.dname '/prior/moments/' M_.fname '_PriorCorrelations*']); end % Set varlist (vartan) if ~posterior if isfield(options_,'varlist') temp = options_.varlist; end options_.varlist = options_.prior_analysis_endo_var_list; end endo_names=options_.varlist; [ivar,vartan] = get_variables_list(options_,M_); if ~posterior if exist('temp','var') options_.varlist = temp; end end nvar = length(ivar); if options_.pruning obs_var=NaN(nvar,1); for i=1:nvar obs_var(i,1) = find(strcmp(M_.endo_names(ivar(i),:), M_.endo_names(oo_.dr.order_var))); end end options_.ar = nar; % Number of lines in posterior data files. MaXNumberOfCovarLines = ceil(options_.MaxNumberOfBytes/(nvar*(nvar+1)/2)/8); MaXNumberOfCorrLines = ceil(options_.MaxNumberOfBytes/(nvar*nvar*nar)/8); if SampleSize<=MaXNumberOfCovarLines Covariance_matrix = zeros(SampleSize,nvar*(nvar+1)/2); NumberOfCovarFiles = 1; else Covariance_matrix = zeros(MaXNumberOfCovarLines,nvar*(nvar+1)/2); NumberOfLinesInTheLastCovarFile = mod(SampleSize,MaXNumberOfCovarLines); NumberOfCovarFiles = ceil(SampleSize/MaXNumberOfCovarLines); end if SampleSize<=MaXNumberOfCorrLines Correlation_array = zeros(SampleSize,nvar,nvar,nar); NumberOfCorrFiles = 1; else Correlation_array = zeros(MaXNumberOfCorrLines,nvar,nvar,nar); NumberOfLinesInTheLastCorrFile = mod(SampleSize,MaXNumberOfCorrLines); NumberOfCorrFiles = ceil(SampleSize/MaXNumberOfCorrLines); end NumberOfCovarLines = rows(Covariance_matrix); CovarFileNumber = 1; NumberOfCorrLines = rows(Correlation_array); CorrFileNumber = 1; % Compute 2nd order moments and save them in *_[Posterior, Prior]2ndOrderMoments* files linea_cov = 0; linea_corr = 0; for file = 1:NumberOfDrawsFiles if posterior temp=load([M_.dname '/metropolis/' M_.fname '_' type '_draws' num2str(file) ]); else temp=load([M_.dname '/prior/draws/' type '_draws' num2str(file) ]); end NumberOfDraws = rows(temp.pdraws); isdrsaved = columns(temp.pdraws)-1; for linee = 1:NumberOfDraws linea_cov = linea_cov+1; linea_corr = linea_corr+1; if isdrsaved M_=set_parameters_locally(M_,temp.pdraws{linee,1});% Needed to update the covariance matrix of the state innovations. dr = temp.pdraws{linee,2}; else M_=set_parameters_locally(M_,temp.pdraws{linee,1}); [dr,info,M_.params] = compute_decision_rules(M_,options_,oo_.dr, oo_.steady_state, oo_.exo_steady_state, oo_.exo_det_steady_state); end if ~options_.pruning tmp = th_autocovariances(dr,ivar,M_,options_,nodecomposition); else pruned_state_space = pruned_SS.pruned_state_space_system(M_, options_, dr, obs_var, options_.ar, 1, 0); tmp{1} = pruned_state_space.Var_y; for i=1:nar tmp{i+1} = pruned_state_space.Corr_yi(:,:,i); end end for i=1:nvar for j=i:nvar Covariance_matrix(linea_cov,symmetric_matrix_index(i,j,nvar)) = tmp{1}(i,j); end end for i=1:nar Correlation_array(linea_corr,:,:,i) = tmp{i+1}; end if linea_cov == NumberOfCovarLines if posterior save([ M_.dname '/metropolis/' M_.fname '_Posterior2ndOrderMoments' int2str(CovarFileNumber) '.mat' ],'Covariance_matrix','endo_names'); else save([ M_.dname '/prior/moments/' M_.fname '_Prior2ndOrderMoments' int2str(CovarFileNumber) '.mat' ],'Covariance_matrix','endo_names'); end CovarFileNumber = CovarFileNumber + 1; linea_cov = 0; test = CovarFileNumber-NumberOfCovarFiles; if ~test% Prepare the last round... Covariance_matrix = zeros(NumberOfLinesInTheLastCovarFile,nvar*(nvar+1)/2); NumberOfCovarLines = NumberOfLinesInTheLastCovarFile; elseif test<0 Covariance_matrix = zeros(MaXNumberOfCovarLines,nvar*(nvar+1)/2); else clear('Covariance_matrix'); end end if linea_corr == NumberOfCorrLines if posterior save([ M_.dname '/metropolis/' M_.fname '_PosteriorCorrelations' int2str(CorrFileNumber) '.mat' ],'Correlation_array','endo_names'); else save([ M_.dname '/prior/moments/' M_.fname '_PriorCorrelations' int2str(CorrFileNumber) '.mat' ],'Correlation_array','endo_names'); end CorrFileNumber = CorrFileNumber + 1; linea_corr = 0; test = CorrFileNumber-NumberOfCorrFiles; if ~test% Prepare the last round... Correlation_array = zeros(NumberOfLinesInTheLastCorrFile,nvar,nvar,nar); NumberOfCorrLines = NumberOfLinesInTheLastCorrFile; CorrFileNumber = CorrFileNumber - 1; elseif test<0 Correlation_array = zeros(MaXNumberOfCorrLines,nvar,nvar,nar); else clear('Correlation_array'); end end end end