function [AHess, DLIK, LIK] = AHessian(T,R,Q,H,P,Y,DT,DYss,DOm,DH,DP,start,mf,kalman_tol,riccati_tol) % function [AHess, DLIK, LIK] = AHessian(T,R,Q,H,P,Y,DT,DYss,DOm,DH,DP,start,mf,kalman_tol,riccati_tol) % % computes the asymptotic hessian matrix of the log-likelihood function of % a state space model (notation as in kalman_filter.m in DYNARE % Thanks to Nikolai Iskrev % % NOTE: the derivative matrices (DT,DR ...) are 3-dim. arrays with last % dimension equal to the number of structural parameters % Copyright © 2011-2017 Dynare Team % % This file is part of Dynare. % % Dynare is free software: you can redistribute it and/or modify % it under the terms of the GNU General Public License as published by % the Free Software Foundation, either version 3 of the License, or % (at your option) any later version. % % Dynare is distributed in the hope that it will be useful, % but WITHOUT ANY WARRANTY; without even the implied warranty of % MERCHANTABILITY or FITNESS FOR A PARTICULAR PURPOSE. See the % GNU General Public License for more details. % % You should have received a copy of the GNU General Public License % along with Dynare. If not, see . k = size(DT,3); % number of structural parameters smpl = size(Y,2); % Sample size. pp = size(Y,1); % Maximum number of observed variables. mm = size(T,2); % Number of state variables. a = zeros(mm,1); % State vector. Om = R*Q*transpose(R); % Variance of R times the vector of structural innovations. t = 0; % Initialization of the time index. oldK = 0; notsteady = 1; % Steady state flag. F_singular = 1; lik = zeros(smpl,1); % Initialization of the vector gathering the densities. LIK = Inf; % Default value of the log likelihood. if nargout > 1 DLIK = zeros(k,1); % Initialization of the score. end AHess = zeros(k,k); % Initialization of the Hessian Da = zeros(mm,k); % State vector. Dv = zeros(length(mf),k); % for ii = 1:k % DOm = DR(:,:,ii)*Q*transpose(R) + R*DQ(:,:,ii)*transpose(R) + R*Q*transpose(DR(:,:,ii)); % end while notsteady && t=start && nargout > 1 DLIK(ii,1) = DLIK(ii,1) + trace( iF*DF(:,:,ii) ) + 2*Dv(:,ii)'*iF*v - v'*(iF*DF(:,:,ii)*iF)*v; end end vecDPmf = reshape(DP(mf,mf,:),[],k); % iPmf = inv(P(mf,mf)); if t>=start AHess = AHess + Dv'*iF*Dv + .5*(vecDPmf' * kron(iF,iF) * vecDPmf); end a = T*(a+K*v); P = T*(P-K*P(mf,:))*transpose(T)+Om; DP = DP1; end notsteady = max(max(abs(K-oldK))) > riccati_tol; oldK = K; end if F_singular error('The variance of the forecast error remains singular until the end of the sample') end if t < smpl t0 = t+1; while t < smpl t = t+1; v = Y(:,t)-a(mf); for ii = 1:k Dv(:,ii) = -Da(mf,ii)-DYss(mf,ii); Da(:,ii) = DT(:,:,ii)*(a+K*v) + T*(Da(:,ii)+DK(:,:,ii)*v + K*Dv(:,ii)); if t>=start && nargout >1 DLIK(ii,1) = DLIK(ii,1) + trace( iF*DF(:,:,ii) ) + 2*Dv(:,ii)'*iF*v - v'*(iF*DF(:,:,ii)*iF)*v; end end if t>=start AHess = AHess + Dv'*iF*Dv; end a = T*(a+K*v); lik(t) = transpose(v)*iF*v; end AHess = AHess + .5*(smpl-t0+1)*(vecDPmf' * kron(iF,iF) * vecDPmf); if nargout > 1 for ii = 1:k % DLIK(ii,1) = DLIK(ii,1) + (smpl-t0+1)*trace( iF*DF(:,:,ii) ); end end lik(t0:smpl) = lik(t0:smpl) + log(det(F)); % for ii = 1:k; % for jj = 1:ii % H(ii,jj) = trace(iPmf*(.5*DP(mf,mf,ii)*iPmf*DP(mf,mf,jj) + Dv(:,ii)*Dv(:,jj)')); % end % end end AHess = -AHess; if nargout > 1 DLIK = DLIK/2; end % adding log-likelihhod constants lik = (lik + pp*log(2*pi))/2; LIK = sum(lik(start:end)); % Minus the log-likelihood. % end of main function function [DK,DF,DP1] = computeDKalman(T,DT,DOm,P,DP,DH,mf,iF,K) k = size(DT,3); tmp = P-K*P(mf,:); for ii = 1:k DF(:,:,ii) = DP(mf,mf,ii) + DH(:,:,ii); DiF(:,:,ii) = -iF*DF(:,:,ii)*iF; DK(:,:,ii) = DP(:,mf,ii)*iF + P(:,mf)*DiF(:,:,ii); Dtmp = DP(:,:,ii) - DK(:,:,ii)*P(mf,:) - K*DP(mf,:,ii); DP1(:,:,ii) = DT(:,:,ii)*tmp*T' + T*Dtmp*T' + T*tmp*DT(:,:,ii)' + DOm(:,:,ii); end % end of computeDKalman