function [alphahat,etahat,epsilonhat,ahat0,SteadyState,trend_coeff,aKK,T0,R0,P,PKK,decomp,Trend,state_uncertainty,M_,oo_,bayestopt_] = DSGE_smoother(xparam1,gend,Y,data_index,missing_value,M_,oo_,options_,bayestopt_,estim_params_,dataset_, dataset_info) %function [alphahat,etahat,epsilonhat,ahat0,SteadyState,trend_coeff,aKK,T0,R0,P,PKK,decomp,Trend,state_uncertainty,M_,oo_,bayestopt_] = DSGE_smoother(xparam1,gend,Y,data_index,missing_value,M_,oo_,options_,bayestopt_,estim_params_,dataset_, dataset_info) % Runs a DSGE smoother with occasionally binding constraints % % INPUTS % - xparam1 [double] (p*1) vector of (estimated) parameters. % - gend [integer] scalar specifying the number of observations % - Y [double] (n*T) matrix of data. % - data_index [cell] 1*smpl cell of column vectors of indices. % - missing_value [boolean] 1 if missing values, 0 otherwise % - M_ [structure] Matlab's structure describing the model (M_). % - oo_ [structure] Matlab's structure containing the results (oo_). % - options_ [structure] Matlab's structure describing the current options (options_). % - bayestopt_ [structure] describing the priors % - estim_params_ [structure] characterizing parameters to be estimated % - dataset_ [structure] the dataset after required transformation % - dataset_info [structure] Various informations about the dataset (descriptive statistics and missing observations) % % OUTPUTS % - alphahat [double] (m*T) matrix, smoothed endogenous variables (a_{t|T}) (decision-rule order) % - etahat [double] (r*T) matrix, smoothed structural shocks (r>=n is the number of shocks). % - epsilonhat [double] (n*T) matrix, smoothed measurement errors. % - ahat0 [double] (m*T) matrix, updated (endogenous) variables (a_{t|t}) (decision-rule order) % - SteadyState [double] (m*1) vector specifying the steady state level of each endogenous variable (declaration order) % - trend_coeff [double] (n*1) vector, parameters specifying the slope of the trend associated to each observed variable. % - aKK [double] (K,n,T+K) array, k (k=1,...,K) steps ahead % filtered (endogenous) variables (decision-rule order) % - T0 and R0 [double] Matrices defining the state equation (T is the (m*m) transition matrix). % - P: (m*m*(T+1)) 3D array of one-step ahead forecast error variance % matrices (decision-rule order) % - PKK (K*m*m*(T+K)) 4D array of k-step ahead forecast error variance % matrices (meaningless for periods 1:d) (decision-rule order) % - decomp (K*m*r*(T+K)) 4D array of shock decomposition of k-step ahead % filtered variables (decision-rule order) % - Trend [double] (n*T) pure trend component; stored in options_.varobs order % - state_uncertainty [double] (K,K,T) array, storing the uncertainty % about the smoothed state (decision-rule order) % - M_ [structure] decribing the model % - oo_ [structure] storing the results % - options_ [structure] describing the options % - bayestopt_ [structure] describing the priors % Copyright © 2021 Dynare Team % % This file is part of Dynare. % % Dynare is free software: you can redistribute it and/or modify % it under the terms of the GNU General Public License as published by % the Free Software Foundation, either version 3 of the License, or % (at your option) any later version. % % Dynare is distributed in the hope that it will be useful, % but WITHOUT ANY WARRANTY; without even the implied warranty of % MERCHANTABILITY or FITNESS FOR A PARTICULAR PURPOSE. See the % GNU General Public License for more details. % % You should have received a copy of the GNU General Public License % along with Dynare. If not, see . smoother_field_list = {'SmoothedVariables', 'UpdatedVariables', 'SmoothedShocks'}; regime_history=[]; if options_.occbin.smoother.linear_smoother && nargin==12 %% linear smoother options_.occbin.smoother.status=false; [alphahat,etahat,epsilonhat,ahat,SteadyState,trend_coeff,aK,T0,R0,P,PK,decomp,Trend,state_uncertainty,M_,oo_,bayestopt_] = DsgeSmoother(xparam1,gend,Y,data_index,missing_value,M_,oo_,options_,bayestopt_,estim_params_); tmp_smoother=store_smoother_results(M_,oo_,options_,bayestopt_,dataset_,dataset_info,alphahat,etahat,epsilonhat,ahat,SteadyState,trend_coeff,aK,P,PK,decomp,Trend,state_uncertainty); for jf=1:length(smoother_field_list) oo_.occbin.linear_smoother.(smoother_field_list{jf}) = tmp_smoother.(smoother_field_list{jf}); end oo_.occbin.linear_smoother.alphahat=alphahat; oo_.occbin.linear_smoother.etahat=etahat; oo_.occbin.linear_smoother.epsilonhat=epsilonhat; oo_.occbin.linear_smoother.ahat=ahat; oo_.occbin.linear_smoother.SteadyState=SteadyState; oo_.occbin.linear_smoother.trend_coeff=trend_coeff; oo_.occbin.linear_smoother.aK=aK; oo_.occbin.linear_smoother.T0=T0; oo_.occbin.linear_smoother.R0=R0; oo_.occbin.linear_smoother.decomp=decomp; fprintf('\nOccbin: linear smoother done.\n') options_.occbin.smoother.status=true; end % if init_mode %% keep these commented lines for the moment, should some nasty problem in the future call back for this option % shocks1 = etahat(:,2:end)'; % clear regime_history ; % % for ii = 1:gend-1 % % fprintf('Period number %d out of %d \n',ii,gend-1) % opts_simul.SHOCKS = shocks1(ii,:); % opts_simul.endo_init = alphahat(oo_.dr.inv_order_var,ii); % out = occbin.runsim_fn(opts_simul, M_, oo_, options_); % regime_history(ii) = out.regime_history; % end % % [TT,RR] = dynare_resolve(M_,options_,oo_); % CC = zeros([size(RR,1),gend ]); % else opts_simul = options_.occbin.simul; opts_simul.curb_retrench = options_.occbin.smoother.curb_retrench; opts_simul.maxit = options_.occbin.smoother.maxit; opts_simul.waitbar = options_.occbin.smoother.waitbar; opts_simul.periods = options_.occbin.smoother.periods; opts_simul.check_ahead_periods = options_.occbin.smoother.check_ahead_periods; opts_simul.periodic_solution = options_.occbin.smoother.periodic_solution; opts_simul.full_output = options_.occbin.smoother.full_output; opts_simul.piecewise_only = options_.occbin.smoother.piecewise_only; % init_mode = options_.occbin.smoother.init_mode; % 0 = standard; 1 = unconditional frcsts zero shocks+smoothed states in each period % init_mode = 0; occbin_options = struct(); occbin_options.first_period_occbin_update = options_.occbin.smoother.first_period_occbin_update; occbin_options.opts_regime = opts_simul; % this builds the opts_simul options field needed by occbin.solver occbin_options.opts_regime.binding_indicator = options_.occbin.likelihood.init_binding_indicator; occbin_options.opts_regime.regime_history=options_.occbin.likelihood.init_regime_history; [alphahat,etahat,epsilonhat,ahat,SteadyState,trend_coeff,aK,T0,R0,P,PK,decomp,Trend,state_uncertainty,M_,oo_,bayestopt_] = DsgeSmoother(xparam1,gend,Y,data_index,missing_value,M_,oo_,options_,bayestopt_,estim_params_,occbin_options);% T1=TT; oo_.occbin.smoother.realtime_regime_history = oo_.occbin.smoother.regime_history; regime_history = oo_.occbin.smoother.regime_history; opts_regime.regime_history = oo_.occbin.smoother.regime_history; ahat0 = ahat; aKK=aK; PKK=PK; clear aK PK; occbin_options.first_period_occbin_update = inf; opts_regime.binding_indicator=[]; regime_history0 = regime_history; fprintf('Occbin smoother iteration 1.\n') opts_simul.SHOCKS = [etahat(:,2:end)'; zeros(1,M_.exo_nbr)]; opts_simul.exo_pos = 1:M_.exo_nbr; opts_simul.endo_init = alphahat(oo_.dr.inv_order_var,1); opts_simul.init_regime=regime_history; % use realtime regime for guess, to avoid multiple solution issues! options_.occbin.simul=opts_simul; [~, out, ss] = occbin.solver(M_,oo_,options_); regime_history = out.regime_history; if options_.smoother_redux occbin_options.opts_simul.restrict_state_space =1; oo_.occbin.linear_smoother.T0=ss.T(oo_.dr.order_var,oo_.dr.order_var,1); oo_.occbin.linear_smoother.R0=ss.R(oo_.dr.order_var,:,1); end TT = ss.T(oo_.dr.order_var,oo_.dr.order_var,:); RR = ss.R(oo_.dr.order_var,:,:); CC = ss.C(oo_.dr.order_var,:); TT = cat(3,TT(:,:,1),TT); RR = cat(3,RR(:,:,1),RR); CC = cat(2,CC(:,1),CC); opts_regime.regime_history = regime_history; opts_regime.binding_indicator = []; [TT, RR, CC, regime_history] = occbin.check_regimes(TT, RR, CC, opts_regime, M_, oo_, options_); is_changed = ~isequal(regime_history0,regime_history); if isempty(regime_history0) regime_history0 = regime_history; end iter=1; is_periodic = 0; is_changed_start = 0; maxiter = options_.occbin.smoother.max_number_of_iterations; occbin_smoother_fast = options_.occbin.smoother.fast; occbin_smoother_debug=options_.occbin.smoother.debug; sto_alphahat=alphahat; sto_etahat={etahat}; sto_CC = CC; sto_RR = RR; sto_TT = TT; for k=1:size(TT,3) sto_eee(:,k) = eig(TT(:,:,k)); end while is_changed && maxiter>iter && ~is_periodic iter=iter+1; fprintf('Occbin smoother iteration %u.\n', iter) occbin_options.opts_regime.regime_history=regime_history; [alphahat,etahat,epsilonhat,ahat,SteadyState,trend_coeff,aK,T0,R0,P,PK,decomp,Trend,state_uncertainty,M_,oo_,bayestopt_] = DsgeSmoother(xparam1,gend,Y,data_index,missing_value,M_,oo_,options_,bayestopt_,estim_params_,occbin_options,TT,RR,CC);% T1=TT; sto_etahat(iter)={etahat}; regime_history0(iter,:) = regime_history; save('info1','regime_history0'); sto_CC = CC; sto_RR = RR; sto_TT = TT; opts_simul.SHOCKS = [etahat(:,2:end)'; zeros(1,M_.exo_nbr)]; opts_simul.endo_init = alphahat(oo_.dr.inv_order_var,1); options_.occbin.simul=opts_simul; [~, out, ss] = occbin.solver(M_,oo_,options_); regime_history = out.regime_history; TT = ss.T(oo_.dr.order_var,oo_.dr.order_var,:); RR = ss.R(oo_.dr.order_var,:,:); CC = ss.C(oo_.dr.order_var,:); TT = cat(3,TT(:,:,1),TT); RR = cat(3,RR(:,:,1),RR); CC = cat(2,CC(:,1),CC); opts_regime.regime_history = regime_history; [TT, RR, CC, regime_history] = occbin.check_regimes(TT, RR, CC, opts_regime, M_, oo_, options_); is_changed = ~isequal(regime_history0(iter,:),regime_history); if M_.occbin.constraint_nbr==2 for k=1:size(regime_history0,2) isdiff_regime(k,1) = ~isequal(regime_history0(end,k).regime1,regime_history(k).regime1); isdiff_start(k,1) = ~isequal(regime_history0(end,k).regimestart1,regime_history(k).regimestart1); isdiff_(k,1) = isdiff_regime(k,1) || isdiff_start(k,1); isdiff_regime(k,2) = ~isequal(regime_history0(end,k).regime2,regime_history(k).regime2); isdiff_start(k,2) = ~isequal(regime_history0(end,k).regimestart2,regime_history(k).regimestart2); isdiff_(k,2) = isdiff_regime(k,2) || isdiff_start(k,2); end is_changed_regime = ~isempty(find(isdiff_regime(:,1))) || ~isempty(find(isdiff_regime(:,2))); is_changed_start = ~isempty(find(isdiff_start(:,1))) || ~isempty(find(isdiff_start(:,2))); else for k=1:size(regime_history0,2) isdiff_regime(k,1) = ~isequal(regime_history0(end,k).regime,regime_history(k).regime); isdiff_start(k,1) = ~isequal(regime_history0(end,k).regimestart,regime_history(k).regimestart); isdiff_(k,1) = isdiff_regime(k,1) || isdiff_start(k,1); end is_changed_regime = ~isempty(find(isdiff_regime(:,1))); is_changed_start = ~isempty(find(isdiff_start(:,1))); end if occbin_smoother_fast is_changed = is_changed_regime; end if iter>1 for kiter=1:iter-1 is_tmp = isequal(regime_history0(kiter,:),regime_history); if is_tmp break end end is_periodic = (is_changed && is_tmp); end if is_changed for k=1:size(TT,3) eee(:,k) = eig(TT(:,:,k)); end err_eig(iter-1) = max(max(abs(sort(eee)-sort(sto_eee)))); err_alphahat(iter-1) = max(max(max(abs(alphahat-sto_alphahat)))); err_etahat(iter-1) = max(max(max(abs(etahat-sto_etahat{iter-1})))); err_CC(iter-1) = max(max(max(abs(CC-sto_CC)))); err_RR(iter-1) = max(max(max(abs(RR-sto_RR)))); err_TT(iter-1) = max(max(max(abs(TT-sto_TT)))); end if occbin_smoother_debug regime_ = cell(0); regime_new = regime_; start_ = regime_; start_new = regime_; if M_.occbin.constraint_nbr==2 indx_init_1 = find(isdiff_(:,1)); if ~isempty(indx_init_1) qq={regime_history0(end,indx_init_1).regime1}'; for j=1:length(qq), regime_(j,1) = {int2str(qq{j})}; end qq={regime_history0(end,indx_init_1).regimestart1}'; for j=1:length(qq), start_(j,1) = {int2str(qq{j})}; end qq={regime_history(indx_init_1).regime1}'; for j=1:length(qq), regime_new(j,1) = {int2str(qq{j})}; end qq={regime_history(indx_init_1).regimestart1}'; for j=1:length(qq), start_new(j,1) = {int2str(qq{j})}; end disp('Time points where regime 1 differs') if ~isoctave disp(table(indx_init_1, regime_, start_, regime_new, start_new)) else % The table() function is not implemented in Octave, print something more or less equivalent (though much less readable) disp(vertcat({'indx_init_1', 'regime_', 'start_', 'regime_new', 'start_new'}, ... horzcat(num2cell(indx_init_1), regime_, start_, regime_new, start_new))) end end indx_init_2 = find(isdiff_(:,2)); if ~isempty(indx_init_2) regime_ = cell(0); regime_new = regime_; start_ = regime_; start_new = regime_; qq={regime_history0(end,indx_init_2).regime2}'; for j=1:length(qq), regime_(j,1) = {int2str(qq{j})}; end qq={regime_history0(end,indx_init_2).regimestart2}'; for j=1:length(qq), start_(j,1) = {int2str(qq{j})}; end qq={regime_history(indx_init_2).regime2}'; for j=1:length(qq), regime_new(j,1) = {int2str(qq{j})}; end qq={regime_history(indx_init_2).regimestart2}'; for j=1:length(qq), start_new(j,1) = {int2str(qq{j})}; end disp('Time points where regime 2 differs ') if ~isoctave disp(table(indx_init_2, regime_, start_, regime_new, start_new)) else % The table() function is not implemented in Octave, print something more or less equivalent (though much less readable) disp(vertcat({'indx_init_2', 'regime_', 'start_', 'regime_new', 'start_new'}, ... horzcat(num2cell(indx_init_2), regime_, start_, regime_new, start_new))) end end else indx_init_1 = find(isdiff_(:,1)); if ~isempty(indx_init_1) qq={regime_history0(end,indx_init_1).regime}'; for j=1:length(qq), regime_(j,1) = {int2str(qq{j})}; end qq={regime_history0(end,indx_init_1).regimestart}'; for j=1:length(qq), start_(j,1) = {int2str(qq{j})}; end qq={regime_history(indx_init_1).regime}'; for j=1:length(qq), regime_new(j,1) = {int2str(qq{j})}; end qq={regime_history(indx_init_1).regimestart}'; for j=1:length(qq), start_new(j,1) = {int2str(qq{j})}; end disp('Time points where regime differs') if ~isoctave disp(table(indx_init_1, regime_, start_, regime_new, start_new)) else % The table() function is not implemented in Octave, print something more or less equivalent (though much less readable) disp(vertcat({'indx_init_1', 'regime_', 'start_', 'regime_new', 'start_new'}, ... horzcat(num2cell(indx_init_1), regime_, start_, regime_new, start_new))) end end end end if is_changed sto_alphahat=alphahat; sto_eee = eee; end end regime_history0(max(iter+1,1),:) = regime_history; oo_.occbin.smoother.regime_history=regime_history0(end,:); oo_.occbin.smoother.regime_history_iter=regime_history0; save('info1','regime_history0') if (maxiter==iter && is_changed) || is_periodic disp(['Occbin smoother did not converge.']) if is_periodic disp(['Occbin smoother algo loops between two solutions.']) end else disp(['Occbin smoother converged.']) if occbin_smoother_fast && is_changed_start disp('WARNING: fast algo is used, regime(s) duration(s) was not forced to converge') end end if (~is_changed || occbin_smoother_debug) && nargin==12 if is_changed CC = sto_CC; RR = sto_RR; TT = sto_TT; oo_.occbin.smoother.regime_history=regime_history0(end-1,:); end tmp_smoother=store_smoother_results(M_,oo_,options_,bayestopt_,dataset_,dataset_info,alphahat,etahat,epsilonhat,ahat0,SteadyState,trend_coeff,aKK,P,PKK,decomp,Trend,state_uncertainty); for jf=1:length(smoother_field_list) oo_.occbin.smoother.(smoother_field_list{jf}) = tmp_smoother.(smoother_field_list{jf}); end oo_.occbin.smoother.alphahat=alphahat; oo_.occbin.smoother.etahat=etahat; oo_.occbin.smoother.epsilonhat=epsilonhat; oo_.occbin.smoother.ahat=ahat0; oo_.occbin.smoother.SteadyState=SteadyState; oo_.occbin.smoother.trend_coeff=trend_coeff; oo_.occbin.smoother.aK=aKK; oo_.occbin.smoother.T0=TT; oo_.occbin.smoother.R0=RR; oo_.occbin.smoother.C0=CC; if options_.occbin.smoother.plot GraphDirectoryName = CheckPath('graphs',M_.fname); j1=0; ifig=0; for j=1:M_.exo_nbr if M_.Sigma_e(j,j) j1=j1+1; if mod(j1,9)==1 hfig = dyn_figure(options_.nodisplay,'name','Occbin smoothed shocks'); ifig=ifig+1; isub=0; end isub=isub+1; subplot(3,3,isub) if options_.occbin.smoother.linear_smoother plot(oo_.occbin.linear_smoother.etahat(j,:)','linewidth',2) hold on, end plot(oo_.occbin.smoother.etahat(j,:)','r--','linewidth',2) hold on, plot([0 options_.nobs],[0 0],'k--') set(gca,'xlim',[0 options_.nobs]) title(deblank(M_.exo_names(j,:)),'interpreter','none') if mod(j1,9)==0 if options_.occbin.smoother.linear_smoother annotation('textbox', [0.1,0,0.35,0.05],'String', 'Linear','Color','Blue','horizontalalignment','center','interpreter','none'); end annotation('textbox', [0.55,0,0.35,0.05],'String', 'Piecewise','Color','Red','horizontalalignment','center','interpreter','none'); dyn_saveas(gcf,[GraphDirectoryName filesep M_.fname,'_smoothedshocks_occbin',int2str(ifig)],options_.nodisplay,options_.graph_format); end end if mod(j1,9)~=0 && j==M_.exo_nbr annotation('textbox', [0.1,0,0.35,0.05],'String', 'Linear','Color','Blue','horizontalalignment','center','interpreter','none'); annotation('textbox', [0.55,0,0.35,0.05],'String', 'Piecewise','Color','Red','horizontalalignment','center','interpreter','none'); dyn_saveas(hfig,[GraphDirectoryName filesep M_.fname,'_smoothedshocks_occbin',int2str(ifig)],options_.nodisplay,options_.graph_format); end end end end