function [LIK, lik] = univariate_diffuse_kalman_filter_corr(T,R,Q,H,Pinf,Pstar,Y,start,Z,kalman_tol,riccati_tol,data_index,number_of_observations,no_more_missing_observations) % Computes the likelihood of a stationnary state space model (univariate % approach with correlated errors). % % INPUTS % T [double] mm*mm transition matrix of the state equation. % R [double] mm*rr matrix, mapping structural innovations to state variables. % Q [double] rr*rr covariance matrix of the structural innovations. % H [double] pp*1 (zeros(pp,1) if no measurement errors) variances of the measurement errors. % P [double] mm*mm variance-covariance matrix with stationary variables % Y [double] pp*smpl matrix of (detrended) data, where pp is the maximum number of observed variables. % start [integer] scalar, likelihood evaluation starts at 'start'. % Z [double] pp*mm, selection matrix or pp independant linear combinations. % kalman_tol [double] scalar, tolerance parameter (rcond). % riccati_tol [double] scalar, tolerance parameter (riccati iteration). % data_index [cell] 1*smpl cell of column vectors of indices. % number_of_observations [integer] scalar. % no_more_missing_observations [integer] scalar. % % OUTPUTS % LIK [double] scalar, likelihood % lik [double] vector, density of observations in each period. % % REFERENCES % See "Filtering and Smoothing of State Vector for Diffuse State Space % Models", S.J. Koopman and J. Durbin (2003, in Journal of Time Series % Analysis, vol. 24(1), pp. 85-98). % % NOTES % The vector "lik" is used to evaluate the jacobian of the likelihood. % Copyright (C) 2004-2008 Dynare Team % % This file is part of Dynare. % % Dynare is free software: you can redistribute it and/or modify % it under the terms of the GNU General Public License as published by % the Free Software Foundation, either version 3 of the License, or % (at your option) any later version. % % Dynare is distributed in the hope that it will be useful, % but WITHOUT ANY WARRANTY; without even the implied warranty of % MERCHANTABILITY or FITNESS FOR A PARTICULAR PURPOSE. See the % GNU General Public License for more details. % % You should have received a copy of the GNU General Public License % along with Dynare. If not, see . [pp ,smpl] = size(Y,1); mm = size(T,1); a = zeros(mm,1); QQ = R*Q*transpose(R); t = 0; lik = zeros(smpl,1); notsteady = 1; crit = 1.e-6; newRank = rank(Pinf,crit); icc=0; TT = zeros(mm+pp); TT(1:mm,1:mm) = T; T = TT; QQ = zeros(rr+pp); QQ(1:rr,1:rr) = Q; QQ(rr+1:end,rr+1:end) = H; QQQQ = zeros(mm+pp); RQR = R*Q*R'; QQQQ(1:mm,1:mm) = RQR; QQQQ(mm+1:end,mm+1:end) = H; Q = QQ; QQ = QQQQ; RR = zeros(mm+pp,rr+pp); RR(1:mm,1:rr) = R; RR(mm+1:end,rr+1:end) = eye(pp); R = RR; PP = zeros(mm+pp); PP(1:mm,1:mm) = Pstar; PP(mm+1:end,mm+1:end) = H; Pstar = PP; PP = zeros(mm+pp); PP(1:mm,1:mm) = Pinf; Pinf = PP; ZZ = [Z eye(pp)]; l2pi = log(2*pi); while newRank && (tkalman_tol && newRank icc=icc+1; Kinf = Pinf*Zi'; a = a + Kinf*(prediction_error/Finf); Pstar = Pstar + Kinf*(Kinf'*(Fstar/(Finf*Finf))) - (Kstar*Kinf'+Kinf*Kstar')/Finf; Pinf = Pinf - Kinf*(Kinf'/Finf); lik(t) = lik(t) + log(Finf) + l2pi; if ~isempty(options_.diffuse_d) newRank = (icckalman_tol)==0 & rank(Pinf,crit)==0); options_.diffuse_d = icc; newRank=0; disp('WARNING: Change in OPTIONS_.DIFFUSE_D in univariate DKF') disp(['new OPTIONS_.DIFFUSE_D = ',int2str(icc)]) disp('You may have to reset the optimisation') end else newRank = (any(diag(Za*Pinf*Za')>kalman_tol) | rank(Pinf,crit)); if newRank==0 P0= T*Pinf*T'; newRank = (any(diag(Za*P0*Za')>kalman_tol) | rank(P0,crit)); if newRank==0 options_.diffuse_d = icc; end end end elseif Fstar>kalman_tol lik(t) = lik(t) + log(Fstar) + prediction_error* ... prediction_error/Fstar + l2pi; a = a + Kstar*prediction_error/Fstar; Pstar = Pstar - Kstar*Kstar'/Fstar; end end if newRank oldRank = rank(Pinf,crit); else oldRank = 0; end a = T*a; Pstar = T*Pstar*T'+QQ; Pinf = T*Pinf*T'; if newRank newRank = rank(Pinf,crit); end if oldRank ~= newRank disp('univariate_diffuse_kalman_filter:: T does influence the rank of Pinf!') end end if (t==smpl) error(['univariate_diffuse_kalman_filter:: There isn''t enough information to estimate the initial conditions of the nonstationary variables']); end while notsteady && (t kalman_tol Ki = Pstar*Zi'; a = a + Ki*prediction_error/Fi; Pstar = Pstar - Ki*Ki'/Fi; lik(t) = lik(t) + log(Fi) + prediction_error*prediction_error/Fi ... + l2pi; end end a = T*a; Pstar = T*Pstar*T' + QQ; if t>no_more_missing_observations notsteady = max(max(abs(P-oldP)))>riccati_tol; end end while t < smpl t = t+1; Pstar = oldP; for i=1:pp Zi = ZZ(i,:); prediction_error = Y(i,t) - Zi*a; Fi = Zi*Pstar*Zi'+H(i); if Fi > crit Ki = Pstar*Zi'; a = a + Ki*prediction_error/Fi; Pstar = Pstar - Ki*Ki'/Fi; lik(t) = lik(t) + log(Fi) + prediction_error*prediction_error/Fi ... + l2pi; end end a = T*a; end lik = lik/2; LIK = sum(lik(start:end));