function [LIK lik] = DiffuseLikelihoodH3corr(T,R,Q,H,Pinf,Pstar,Y,trend,start) % Same as DiffuseLikelihoodH3 but allows correlation between the measurement % errors (this is not a problem with the multivariate approach). % Copyright (C) 2004 Dynare Team % % This file is part of Dynare. % % Dynare is free software: you can redistribute it and/or modify % it under the terms of the GNU General Public License as published by % the Free Software Foundation, either version 3 of the License, or % (at your option) any later version. % % Dynare is distributed in the hope that it will be useful, % but WITHOUT ANY WARRANTY; without even the implied warranty of % MERCHANTABILITY or FITNESS FOR A PARTICULAR PURPOSE. See the % GNU General Public License for more details. % % You should have received a copy of the GNU General Public License % along with Dynare. If not, see . global bayestopt_ options_ mf = bayestopt_.mf; pp = size(Y,1); mm = size(T,1); rr = size(Q,1); smpl = size(Y,2); T = cat(1,cat(2,T,zeros(mm,pp)),zeros(pp,mm+pp)); R = cat(1,cat(2,R,zeros(mm,pp)),cat(2,zeros(pp,rr),eye(pp))); Q = cat(1,cat(2,Q,zeros(rr,pp)),cat(2,zeros(pp,rr),H)); if size(Pinf,1) % Otherwise Pinf = 0 (no unit root) Pinf = cat(1,cat(2,Pinf,zeros(mm,pp)),zeros(pp,mm+pp)); end Pstar = cat(1,cat(2,Pstar,zeros(mm,pp)),cat(2,zeros(pp,mm),H)); a = zeros(mm+pp,1); QQ = R*Q*transpose(R); t = 0; lik = zeros(smpl,1); notsteady = 1; crit = options_.kalman_tol; newRank = rank(Pinf,crit); while rank(Pinf,crit) & t < smpl %% Matrix Finf is assumed to be zero t = t+1; for i=1:pp v(i) = Y(i,t)-a(mf(i))-a(mm+i)-trend(i,t); Fstar = Pstar(mf(i),mf(i))+Pstar(mm+i,mm+i); Finf = Pinf(mf(i),mf(i)); Kstar = Pstar(:,mf(i))+Pstar(:,mm+i); if Finf > crit Kinf = Pinf(:,mf(i)); a = a + Kinf*v(i)/Finf; Pstar = Pstar + Kinf*transpose(Kinf)*Fstar/(Finf*Finf) - ... (Kstar*transpose(Kinf)+Kinf*transpose(Kstar))/Finf; Pinf = Pinf - Kinf*transpose(Kinf)/Finf; lik(t) = lik(t) + log(Finf); else %% Note that : (1) rank(Pinf)=0 implies that Finf = 0, (2) outside this loop (when for some i and t the condition %% rank(Pinf)=0 is satisfied we have P = Pstar and F = Fstar and (3) Finf = 0 does not imply that %% rank(Pinf)=0. [stéphane,11-03-2004]. if rank(Pinf) == 0 lik(t) = lik(t) + log(Fstar) + v(i)*v(i)/Fstar; end a = a + Kstar*v(i)/Fstar; Pstar = Pstar - Kstar*transpose(Kstar)/Fstar; end oldRank = rank(Pinf,crit); a = T*a; Pstar = T*Pstar*transpose(T)+QQ; Pinf = T*Pinf*transpose(T); newRank = rank(Pinf,crit); if oldRank ~= newRank disp('DiffuseLiklihoodH3 :: T does influence the rank of Pinf!') end end end if t == smpl error(['There isn''t enough information to estimate the initial' ... ' conditions of the nonstationary variables']); end while notsteady & t < smpl t = t+1; for i=1:pp v(i) = Y(i,t) - a(mf(i)) - trend(i,t) -a(mm+i); Fi = Pstar(mf(i),mf(i))+Pstar(mm+i,mm+i); if Fi > crit Ki = Pstar(:,mf(i))+Pstar(:,mm+i); a = a + Ki*v(i)/Fi; Pstar = Pstar - Ki*transpose(Ki)/Fi; lik(t) = lik(t) + log(Fi) + v(i)*v(i)/Fi; end end oldP = Pstar; a = T*a; Pstar = T*Pstar*transpose(T) + QQ; notsteady = ~(max(max(abs(Pstar-oldP))) crit Ki = Pstar(:,mf(i))+Pstar(:,mm+i); a = a + Ki*v(i)/Fi; Pstar = Pstar - Ki*transpose(Ki)/Fi; lik(t) = lik(t) + log(Fi) + v(i)*v(i)/Fi; end end a = T*a; end % adding log-likelihhod constants lik = (lik + pp*log(2*pi))/2; LIK = sum(lik(start:end)); % Minus the log-likelihood.