function [mu, covariance, mode, kernel_at_the_mode] = compute_posterior_covariance_matrix(names, fname, dname, options_, outputFolderName) % Estimation of the posterior covariance matrix, posterior mean, posterior mode and evaluation of the posterior kernel at the % estimated mode, using posterior draws from a metropolis-hastings. The estimated posterior mode and covariance matrix are saved in % a file _mh_mode.mat, hssmc_mode.mat or dsmh__mode.mat under //. % % INPUTS % - names [cell] n×1 cell array of row char arrays, names of the estimated parameters. % - fname [char] name of the model % - dname [char] name of subfolder with output files % - outputFolderName [char] name of directory to store results % % OUTPUTS % - mean [double] n×1 vector, posterior expectation of the parameters. % - covariance [double] n×n matrix, posterior covariance of the parameters. % - mode [double] n×1 vector, posterior mode of the parameters. % - kernel_at_the_mode [double] scalar, value of the posterior kernel at the mode. % Copyright © 2023 Dynare Team % % This file is part of Dynare. % % Dynare is free software: you can redistribute it and/or modify % it under the terms of the GNU General Public License as published by % the Free Software Foundation, either version 3 of the License, or % (at your option) any later version. % % Dynare is distributed in the hope that it will be useful, % but WITHOUT ANY WARRANTY; without even the implied warranty of % MERCHANTABILITY or FITNESS FOR A PARTICULAR PURPOSE. See the % GNU General Public License for more details. % % You should have received a copy of the GNU General Public License % along with Dynare. If not, see . if nargin<5 outputFolderName = 'Output'; end if ishssmc(options_) % Load draws from the posterior distribution pfiles = dir(sprintf('%s/hssmc/particles-*.mat', dname)); posterior = load(sprintf('%s/hssmc/particles-%u-%u.mat', dname, length(pfiles), length(pfiles))); % Get the posterior mode [kernel_at_the_mode, id] = max(posterior.tlogpostkernel); mode = posterior.particles(:,id); % Compute the posterior mean mu = sum(posterior.particles, 2)/length(posterior.tlogpostkernel); % Compute the posterior covariance covariance = (posterior.particles-mu)*(posterior.particles-mu)'/length(posterior.tlogpostkernel); else [mu, covariance, mode, kernel_at_the_mode] = compute_mh_covariance_matrix(names, fname, dname, outputFolderName); end xparam1 = mode; hh = inv(covariance); fval = kernel_at_the_mode; parameter_names = names; if ishssmc(options_) save(sprintf('%s/%s/hssmc_mode.mat', dname, outputFolderName), 'xparam1', 'hh', 'fval', 'parameter_names'); else save(sprintf('%s/%s/%s_mh_mode.mat', dname, outputFolderName, fname), 'xparam1', 'hh', 'fval', 'parameter_names'); end