/* * This file replicates the estimation of the cash in advance model (termed M1 * in the paper) described in Frank Schorfheide (2000): "Loss function-based * evaluation of DSGE models", Journal of Applied Econometrics, 15(6), 645-670. * * The data are taken from the replication package at * http://dx.doi.org/10.15456/jae.2022314.0708799949 * * The prior distribution follows the one originally specified in Schorfheide's * paper. Note that the elicited beta prior for rho in the paper * implies an asymptote and corresponding prior mode at 0. It is generally * recommended to avoid this extreme type of prior. * * Because the data are already logged and we use the loglinear option to conduct * a full log-linearization, we need to use the logdata option. * * The equations are taken from J. Nason and T. Cogley (1994): "Testing the * implications of long-run neutrality for monetary business cycle models", * Journal of Applied Econometrics, 9, S37-S70, NC in the following. * Note that there is an initial minus sign missing in equation (A1), p. S63. * * This implementation was originally written by Michel Juillard. Please note that the * following copyright notice only applies to this Dynare implementation of the * model. */ /* * Copyright © 2004-2023 Dynare Team * * This file is part of Dynare. * * Dynare is free software: you can redistribute it and/or modify * it under the terms of the GNU General Public License as published by * the Free Software Foundation, either version 3 of the License, or * (at your option) any later version. * * Dynare is distributed in the hope that it will be useful, * but WITHOUT ANY WARRANTY; without even the implied warranty of * MERCHANTABILITY or FITNESS FOR A PARTICULAR PURPOSE. See the * GNU General Public License for more details. * * You should have received a copy of the GNU General Public License * along with Dynare. If not, see . */ var m ${m}$ (long_name='money growth') P ${P}$ (long_name='Price level') c ${c}$ (long_name='consumption') e ${e}$ (long_name='capital stock') W ${W}$ (long_name='Wage rate') R ${R}$ (long_name='interest rate') k ${k}$ (long_name='capital stock') d ${d}$ (long_name='dividends') n ${n}$ (long_name='labor') l ${l}$ (long_name='loans') gy_obs ${\Delta \ln GDP}$ (long_name='detrended capital stock') gp_obs ${\Delta \ln P}$ (long_name='detrended capital stock') y ${y}$ (long_name='detrended output') dA ${\Delta A}$ (long_name='TFP growth') ; varexo e_a ${\epsilon_A}$ (long_name='TFP shock') e_m ${\epsilon_M}$ (long_name='Money growth shock') ; parameters alp ${\alpha}$ (long_name='capital share') bet ${\beta}$ (long_name='discount factor') gam ${\gamma}$ (long_name='long-run TFP growth') logmst ${\log(m^*)}$ (long_name='long-run money growth') rho ${\rho}$ (long_name='autocorrelation money growth') phi ${\phi}$ (long_name='labor weight in consumption') del ${\delta}$ (long_name='depreciation rate') ; % roughly picked values to allow simulating the model before estimation alp = 0.33; bet = 0.99; gam = 0.003; logmst = log(1.011); rho = 0.7; phi = 0.787; del = 0.02; model; [name='NC before eq. (1), TFP growth equation'] dA = exp(gam+e_a); [name='NC eq. (2), money growth rate'] log(m) = (1-rho)*logmst + rho*log(m(-1))+e_m; [name='NC eq. (A1), Euler equation'] -P/(c(+1)*P(+1)*m)+bet*P(+1)*(alp*exp(-alp*(gam+log(e(+1))))*k^(alp-1)*n(+1)^(1-alp)+(1-del)*exp(-(gam+log(e(+1)))))/(c(+2)*P(+2)*m(+1))=0; [name='NC below eq. (A1), firm borrowing constraint'] W = l/n; [name='NC eq. (A2), intratemporal labour market condition'] -(phi/(1-phi))*(c*P/(1-n))+l/n = 0; [name='NC below eq. (A2), credit market clearing'] R = P*(1-alp)*exp(-alp*(gam+e_a))*k(-1)^alp*n^(-alp)/W; [name='NC eq. (A3), credit market optimality'] 1/(c*P)-bet*P*(1-alp)*exp(-alp*(gam+e_a))*k(-1)^alp*n^(1-alp)/(m*l*c(+1)*P(+1)) = 0; [name='NC eq. (18), aggregate resource constraint'] c+k = exp(-alp*(gam+e_a))*k(-1)^alp*n^(1-alp)+(1-del)*exp(-(gam+e_a))*k(-1); [name='NC eq. (19), money market condition'] P*c = m; [name='NC eq. (20), credit market equilibrium condition'] m-1+d = l; [name='Definition TFP shock'] e = exp(e_a); [name='Implied by NC eq. (18), production function'] y = k(-1)^alp*n^(1-alp)*exp(-alp*(gam+e_a)); [name='Observation equation GDP growth'] gy_obs = dA*y/y(-1); [name='Observation equation price level'] gp_obs = (P/P(-1))*m(-1)/dA; end; shocks; var e_a; stderr 0.014; var e_m; stderr 0.005; end; steady_state_model; dA = exp(gam); gst = 1/dA; m = exp(logmst); khst = ( (1-gst*bet*(1-del)) / (alp*gst^alp*bet) )^(1/(alp-1)); xist = ( ((khst*gst)^alp - (1-gst*(1-del))*khst)/m )^(-1); nust = phi*m^2/( (1-alp)*(1-phi)*bet*gst^alp*khst^alp ); n = xist/(nust+xist); P = xist + nust; k = khst*n; l = phi*m*n/( (1-phi)*(1-n) ); c = m/P; d = l - m + 1; y = k^alp*n^(1-alp)*gst^alp; R = m/bet; W = l/n; ist = y-c; q = 1 - d; e = 1; gp_obs = m/dA; gy_obs = dA; end; steady; check; % Table 1 of Schorfheide (2000) estimated_params; alp, beta_pdf, 0.356, 0.02; bet, beta_pdf, 0.993, 0.002; gam, normal_pdf, 0.0085, 0.003; logmst, normal_pdf, 0.0002, 0.007; rho, beta_pdf, 0.129, 0.223; phi, beta_pdf, 0.65, 0.05; del, beta_pdf, 0.01, 0.005; stderr e_a, inv_gamma_pdf, 0.035449, inf; stderr e_m, inv_gamma_pdf, 0.008862, inf; end; varobs gp_obs gy_obs; estimation(order=1, datafile=fs2000_data, loglinear,logdata, mode_compute=4, mh_replic=20000, nodiagnostic, mh_nblocks=2, mh_jscale=0.8, mode_check); %uncomment the following lines to generate LaTeX-code of the model equations %write_latex_original_model(write_equation_tags); %collect_latex_files;