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@ -0,0 +1,191 @@
function [f, df, d2f, R2] = likelihood_quadratic_approximation(particles, likelihoodvalues)
% Approximate the shape of the likelihood function with a multivariate second order polynomial.
%
%
% INPUTS
% - particles [double] n×p matrix of (p) particles around the estimated posterior mode.
% - likelihoodvalues [double] p×1 vector of corresponding values for the likelihood (or posterior kernel).
%
% OUTPUTS
% - f [handle] function handle for the approximated likelihood.
% - df [handle] function handle for the gradient of the approximated likelihood.
% - d2f [handle] Hessian matrix of the approximated likelihood (constant since we consider a second order multivariate polynomial)
% - R2 [double] scalar, goodness of fit measure.
%
% REMARKS
% [1] Function f takes a n×m matrix as input argument (the approximated likelihood is evaluated in m points) and returns a m×1 vector.
% [2] Funtion df takes a n×1 vector as input argument (the point where the gradient is computed) and returns a n×1 vector.
% Copyright © 2024 Dynare Team
%
% This file is part of Dynare.
%
% Dynare is free software: you can redistribute it and/or modify
% it under the terms of the GNU General Public License as published by
% the Free Software Foundation, either version 3 of the License, or
% (at your option) any later version.
%
% Dynare is distributed in the hope that it will be useful,
% but WITHOUT ANY WARRANTY; without even the implied warranty of
% MERCHANTABILITY or FITNESS FOR A PARTICULAR PURPOSE. See the
% GNU General Public License for more details.
%
% You should have received a copy of the GNU General Public License
% along with Dynare. If not, see <https://www.gnu.org/licenses/>.
n = rows(particles); % Number of parmaeters
p = columns(particles); % Number of particles
q = 1 + n + n*(n+1)/2; % Number of regressors (with a constant)
if p<=q
error('Quadratic approximation requires more than %u particles.', q)
end
%
% Build the set of regressors.
%
X = NaN(p, q);
X(:,1) = 1; % zero order term
X(:,2:n+1) = transpose(particles); % first order terms
X(:,n+2:end) = crossproducts(particles); % second order terms
%
% Perform the regression
%
parameters = X\likelihoodvalues(:);
%
% Return a function to evaluate the approximation at x (a n×1 vector).
%
f = @(X) parameters(1) + transpose(X)*parameters(2:n+1) + crossproducts(X)*parameters(n+2:end);
if nargout>1
%
% Return a function to evaluate the gradient of the approximation at x (a n×1 vector)
%
df = @(X) parameters(2:n+1) + dcrossproducts(X)*parameters(n+2:end);
if nargout>2
%
% Return the hessian matrix of the approximation.
%
d2f = NaN(n,n);
h = 1;
for i=1:n
for j=i:n
d2f(i,j) = parameters(n+1+h);
if ~isequal(j, i)
d2f(j,i) = d2f(i,j);
end
h = h+1;
end
end
if nargout>3
%
% Return a measure of fit goodness
%
R2 = 1-sum((likelihoodvalues(:)-X*parameters).^2)/sum(demean(likelihoodvalues(:)).^2);
end
end
end
function XX = crossproducts(X)
% n n
% XX*ones(1,(n+1)*n/2) = ∑ xᵢ² + 2 ∑ xᵢxⱼ
% i=1 i=1
% j>i
XX = NaN(columns(X), n*(n+1)/2);
column = 1;
for i=1:n
XX(:,column) = transpose(X(i,:).*X(i,:));
column = column+1;
for j=i+1:n
XX(:,column) = 2*transpose(X(i,:).*X(j,:));
column = column+1;
end
end
end
function xx = dcrossproducts(x)
xx = zeros(n, n*(n+1)/2);
for i = 1:n
base = (i-1)*n-sum(0:i-2);
incol = 1;
xx(i,base+incol) = 2*x(i);
for j = i+1:n
incol = incol+1;
xx(i,incol) = 2*x(j);
end
for j=1:i-1
base = (j-1)*n-sum(0:j-2)+1;
colid = base+i-j;
xx(i,colid) = 2*x(j);
end
end
end
return % --*-- Unit tests --*--
%@test:1
% Create data
X = randn(10,1000);
Y = 1 + rand(1,10)*X.^2+0.01*randn(1,1000);
% Perform approximation
try
[f,df, d2f,R2] = likelihood_quadratic_approximation(X,Y);
t(1) = true;
catch
t(1) = false;
end
% Test returned arguments
if t(1)
try
y = f(randn(10,100));
t(2) = true;
if ~(rows(y)==100 && columns(y)==1)
t(2) = false;
end
catch
t(2) = false;
end
try
dy = df(zeros(10,1));
t(3) = true;
if ~(rows(dy)==10 && columns(dy)==1)
t(3) = false;
end
catch
t(3) = false;
end
t(4) = true;
if ~(rows(d2f)==10 && columns(d2f)==10)
t(4) = false
end
if ~(rows(d2f)==10 && columns(d2f)==10)
t(4) = false
end
t(4) = issymmetric(d2f);
t(4) = ispd(d2f);
t(5) = isscalar(R2);
t(5) = (R2>0) & (R2<1); % Note that in a nonlinear model nothing ensures that these inequalities are satisfied.
end
T = all(t);
%@eof:1
end

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@ -1,30 +1,15 @@
function [test, penalty] = ispd(A)
%@info:
%! @deftypefn {Function File} {[@var{test}, @var{penalty} =} ispd (@var{A})
%! @anchor{ispd}
%! @sp 1
%! Tests if the square matrix @var{A} is positive definite.
%! @sp 2
%! @strong{Inputs}
%! @sp 1
%! @table @ @var
%! @item A
%! A square matrix.
%! @end table
%! @sp 2
%! @strong{Outputs}
%! @sp 1
%! @table @ @var
%! @item test
%! Integer scalar equal to 1 if @var{A} is a positive definite sqquare matrix, 0 otherwise.
%! @item penalty
%! Absolute value of the uum of the negative eigenvalues of A. This output argument is optional.
%! @end table
%! @end deftypefn
%@eod:
% Test if the square matrix A is positive definite.
%
% INPUTS
% - A [double] n×n matrix.
%
% OUTPUTS
% - test [logical] scalar, true if and only if matrix A is positive definite (and symmetric...)
% - penalty [double] scalar, absolute value of the uum of the negative eigenvalues of A. This output argument is optional.
% Copyright © 2007-2022 Dynare Team
% Copyright © 2007-2024 Dynare Team
%
% This file is part of Dynare.
%
@ -54,6 +39,7 @@ if nargout>1
if isoctave && any(any(~isfinite(A))) % workaround for https://savannah.gnu.org/bugs/index.php?63082
penalty = 1;
else
% TODO: the penalty is only concerned with negative eigenvalues, we should also consider the case of non symmetric matrix A.
a = diag(eig(A));
k = find(a<0);
if k > 0
@ -61,4 +47,4 @@ if nargout>1
end
end
end
end
end