test file for plot_shock_decomposition and realtime_shock_decomposition

time-shift
Marco Ratto 2017-01-15 18:44:08 +01:00 committed by Stéphane Adjemian (Charybdis)
parent 2c54d4432a
commit fcdecb5b1f
2 changed files with 145 additions and 0 deletions

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@ -286,6 +286,7 @@ MODFILES = \
shock_decomposition/fs2000_est.mod \
shock_decomposition/fs2000_est_varlist.mod \
shock_decomposition/fs2000_cal_groups.mod \
shock_decomposition/ls2003_plot.mod \
stochastic_purely_forward/stochastic_purely_forward.mod \
stochastic_purely_forward/stochastic_purely_forward_with_static.mod \
forecast/Hansen_exo_det_forecast.mod \

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@ -0,0 +1,144 @@
var y y_s R pie dq pie_s de A y_obs pie_obs R_obs;
varexo e_R e_q e_ys e_pies e_A;
parameters psi1 psi2 psi3 rho_R tau alpha rr k rho_q rho_A rho_ys rho_pies;
psi1 = 1.54;
psi2 = 0.25;
psi3 = 0.25;
rho_R = 0.5;
alpha = 0.3;
rr = 2.51;
k = 0.5;
tau = 0.5;
rho_q = 0.4;
rho_A = 0.2;
rho_ys = 0.9;
rho_pies = 0.7;
model(linear);
y = y(+1) - (tau +alpha*(2-alpha)*(1-tau))*(R-pie(+1))-alpha*(tau +alpha*(2-alpha)*(1-tau))*dq(+1) + alpha*(2-alpha)*((1-tau)/tau)*(y_s-y_s(+1))-A(+1);
pie = exp(-rr/400)*pie(+1)+alpha*exp(-rr/400)*dq(+1)-alpha*dq+(k/(tau+alpha*(2-alpha)*(1-tau)))*y+alpha*(2-alpha)*(1-tau)/(tau*(tau+alpha*(2-alpha)*(1-tau)))*y_s;
pie = de+(1-alpha)*dq+pie_s;
R = rho_R*R(-1)+(1-rho_R)*(psi1*pie+psi2*(y+alpha*(2-alpha)*((1-tau)/tau)*y_s)+psi3*de)+e_R;
dq = rho_q*dq(-1)+e_q;
y_s = rho_ys*y_s(-1)+e_ys;
pie_s = rho_pies*pie_s(-1)+e_pies;
A = rho_A*A(-1)+e_A;
y_obs = y-y(-1)+A;
pie_obs = 4*pie;
R_obs = 4*R;
end;
shocks;
var e_R = 1.25^2;
var e_q = 2.5^2;
var e_A = 1.89;
var e_ys = 1.89;
var e_pies = 1.89;
end;
varobs y_obs R_obs pie_obs dq de;
estimated_params;
psi1 , gamma_pdf,1.5,0.5;
psi2 , gamma_pdf,0.25,0.125;
psi3 , gamma_pdf,0.25,0.125;
rho_R ,beta_pdf,0.5,0.2;
alpha ,beta_pdf,0.3,0.1;
rr ,gamma_pdf,2.5,1;
k , gamma_pdf,0.5,0.25;
tau ,gamma_pdf,0.5,0.2;
rho_q ,beta_pdf,0.4,0.2;
rho_A ,beta_pdf,0.5,0.2;
rho_ys ,beta_pdf,0.8,0.1;
rho_pies,beta_pdf,0.7,0.15;
stderr e_R,inv_gamma_pdf,1.2533,0.6551;
stderr e_q,inv_gamma_pdf,2.5066,1.3103;
stderr e_A,inv_gamma_pdf,1.2533,0.6551;
stderr e_ys,inv_gamma_pdf,1.2533,0.6551;
stderr e_pies,inv_gamma_pdf,1.88,0.9827;
end;
estimation(datafile=data_ca1,first_obs=8,nobs=79,mh_nblocks=10,prefilter=1,mh_jscale=0.5,mh_replic=0);
shock_groups(name=trade);
supply = e_A ;
trade = e_q ;
monetary = e_R ;
end;
shock_groups(name=row);
supply = e_A ;
'RoW shocks' = e_q e_ys e_pies ;
monetary = e_R ;
end;
options_.initial_date=dates('1980Q1');
shock_decomposition(use_shock_groups=trade,nograph) y_obs R_obs pie_obs dq de;
// compute realtime decompositions [pre-processor not yet available]
options_.shock_decomp.forecast=8;
oo_ = realtime_shock_decomposition(M_,oo_,options_,var_list_,bayestopt_,estim_params_);
// various tests for plot_shock_decompositions
// standard plot [using trde group defined before]
plot_shock_decomposition(M_,oo_,options_,var_list_);
// test datailed, custom name and yoy plots
options_.shock_decomp.detail_plot = 1;
options_.shock_decomp.fig_names = 'MR';
options_.shock_decomp.type='yoy';
plot_shock_decomposition(M_,oo_,options_,var_list_);
close all,
// testing realtime decomposition
options_.shock_decomp.detail_plot = 0;
options_.shock_decomp.type='';
options_.use_shock_groups='';
options_.shock_decomp.fig_names = '';
//realtime pooled
options_.shock_decomp.realtime=1;
options_.shock_decomp.vintage=0;
plot_shock_decomposition(M_,oo_,options_,var_list_);
//conditional pooled
options_.shock_decomp.realtime=2;
plot_shock_decomposition(M_,oo_,options_,var_list_);
options_.shock_decomp.realtime=2;
// conditional 8-step ahead decomposition, given 1989q4
options_.shock_decomp.detail_plot = 1;
options_.shock_decomp.vintage=40;
plot_shock_decomposition(M_,oo_,options_,var_list_);
close all,
//forecast pooled
options_.shock_decomp.detail_plot = 0;
options_.shock_decomp.realtime=3;
options_.shock_decomp.vintage=0;
plot_shock_decomposition(M_,oo_,options_,var_list_);
// forecast 8-step ahead decomposition, given 1989q4
options_.shock_decomp.detail_plot = 1;
options_.shock_decomp.realtime=3;
options_.shock_decomp.vintage=40;
plot_shock_decomposition(M_,oo_,options_,var_list_);
close all,
//test uimenu for groups
options_.shock_decomp.realtime=0;
options_.shock_decomp.detail_plot = 1;
options_.shock_decomp.interactive=1;
options_.use_shock_groups='row';
plot_shock_decomposition(M_,oo_,options_,var_list_);
options_.shock_decomp.detail_plot = 1;
options_.shock_decomp.realtime=3;
options_.shock_decomp.vintage=40;
plot_shock_decomposition(M_,oo_,options_,var_list_);