From fb7ae67d09f5de25f89a51906f258daf349ab2e2 Mon Sep 17 00:00:00 2001
From: michel <michel@ac1d8469-bf42-47a9-8791-bf33cf982152>
Date: Tue, 6 Oct 2009 14:41:56 +0000
Subject: [PATCH] v4.1: added trends to imcforecast

git-svn-id: https://www.dynare.org/svn/dynare/trunk@3024 ac1d8469-bf42-47a9-8791-bf33cf982152
---
 matlab/imcforecast.m | 13 +++++++++++--
 1 file changed, 11 insertions(+), 2 deletions(-)

diff --git a/matlab/imcforecast.m b/matlab/imcforecast.m
index 9973d7193..b3355d7ec 100644
--- a/matlab/imcforecast.m
+++ b/matlab/imcforecast.m
@@ -39,6 +39,15 @@ set_parameters(xparam);
 
 [atT,innov,measurement_error,filtered_state_vector,ys,trend_coeff] = DsgeSmoother(xparam,gend,data,[],0);
 
+trend = repmat(ys,1,H+1);
+for i=1:M_.endo_nbr
+    j = strmatch(deblank(M_.endo_names(i,:)),options_.varobs,'exact');
+    if ~isempty(j)
+        trend(i,:) = trend(i,:)+trend_coeff(j)*(gend+(0:H));
+    end
+end
+trend = trend(oo_.dr.order_var,:);
+
 InitState(:,1) = atT(:,end);
 [T,R,ys,info] = dynare_resolve;
 
@@ -89,7 +98,7 @@ randn('state',0);
 for b=1:B
     shocks = sQ*randn(ExoSize,H);
     shocks(jdx,:) = zeros(length(jdx),H);
-    FORCS1(:,:,b) = mcforecast3(cL,H,mcValue,shocks,FORCS1(:,:,b),T,R,mv, mu)+repmat(ys(oo_.dr.order_var),1,H+1);
+    FORCS1(:,:,b) = mcforecast3(cL,H,mcValue,shocks,FORCS1(:,:,b),T,R,mv, mu)+trend;
 end
 
 mFORCS1 = mean(FORCS1,3);
@@ -120,7 +129,7 @@ randn('state',0);
 for b=1:B
     shocks = sQ*randn(ExoSize,H);
     shocks(jdx,:) = zeros(length(jdx),H);
-    FORCS2(:,:,b) = mcforecast3(0,H,mcValue,shocks,FORCS2(:,:,b),T,R,mv, mu)+repmat(ys(oo_.dr.order_var),1,H+1);
+    FORCS2(:,:,b) = mcforecast3(0,H,mcValue,shocks,FORCS2(:,:,b),T,R,mv, mu)+trend;
 end
 
 mFORCS2 = mean(FORCS2,3);