diff --git a/matlab/+pac/+estimate/nls.m b/matlab/+pac/+estimate/nls.m index 44fd9416d..779f10ab3 100644 --- a/matlab/+pac/+estimate/nls.m +++ b/matlab/+pac/+estimate/nls.m @@ -62,9 +62,17 @@ function nls(eqname, params, data, range, optimizer, varargin) global M_ oo_ options_ is_gauss_newton = false; +is_lsqnonlin = false; objective = 'ssr_'; -if nargin>4 && isequal(optimizer, 'GaussNewton') - is_gauss_newton = true; +if nargin>4 && (isequal(optimizer, 'GaussNewton') || isequal(optimizer, 'lsqnonlin')) + switch optimizer + case 'GaussNewton' + is_gauss_newton = true; + case 'lsqnonlin' + is_lsqnonlin = true; + otherwise + % Cannot happen. + end objective = 'r_'; end @@ -184,6 +192,9 @@ else switch optimizer case 'GaussNewton' % Nothing to do here. + case 'lsqnonlin' + bounds = ones(length(params0),1)*[-10,10]; + bounds(strcmp(fieldnames(params), M_.param_names(M_.pac.pacman.ec.params)),1) = .0; case 'fmincon' if isoctave error('Optimization algorithm ''fmincon'' is not available under Octave') @@ -235,6 +246,7 @@ else msg = sprintf('%s - %s\n', msg, 'fminsearch'); msg = sprintf('%s - %s\n', msg, 'simplex'); msg = sprintf('%s - %s\n', msg, 'annealing'); + msg = sprintf('%s - %s\n', msg, 'lsqnonlin'); msg = sprintf('%s - %s\n', msg, 'GaussNewton'); error(msg) end @@ -273,6 +285,13 @@ end if is_gauss_newton [params1, SSR, exitflag] = gauss_newton(resfun, params0); +elseif is_lsqnonlin + if ismember('levenberg-marquardt', varargin) + % Levenberg Marquardt does not handle boundary constraints. + [params1, SSR, ~, exitflag] = lsqnonlin(resfun, params0, [], [], optimset(varargin{:})); + else + [params1, SSR, ~, exitflag] = lsqnonlin(resfun, params0, bounds(:,1), bounds(:,2), optimset(varargin{:})); + end else % Estimate the parameters by minimizing the sum of squared residuals. [params1, SSR, exitflag] = dynare_minimize_objective(ssrfun, params0, ... diff --git a/tests/Makefile.am b/tests/Makefile.am index 272ab21e6..d42d90bd4 100644 --- a/tests/Makefile.am +++ b/tests/Makefile.am @@ -409,6 +409,8 @@ MODFILES = \ pac/trend-component-14/substitution.mod \ pac/trend-component-15/example.mod \ pac/trend-component-16/example.mod \ + pac/trend-component-17/example.mod \ + pac/trend-component-18/example.mod \ estimation/univariate/bayesian.mod \ dynare-command-options/ramst.mod diff --git a/tests/pac/trend-component-18/clean b/tests/pac/trend-component-18/clean new file mode 100755 index 000000000..cf3492a28 --- /dev/null +++ b/tests/pac/trend-component-18/clean @@ -0,0 +1,8 @@ +#!/bin/sh + +rm -rf example +rm -rf +example +rm -f example.log +rm -f *.mat +rm -f *.m +rm -f *.dat diff --git a/tests/pac/trend-component-18/example.mod b/tests/pac/trend-component-18/example.mod new file mode 100644 index 000000000..26418c850 --- /dev/null +++ b/tests/pac/trend-component-18/example.mod @@ -0,0 +1,159 @@ +// --+ options: json=compute, stochastic +-- + +var x1 x2 x1bar x2bar z y x; + +varexo ex1 ex2 ex1bar ex2bar ez ey ex; + +parameters + rho_1 rho_2 rho_3 rho_4 + a_x1_0 a_x1_1 a_x1_2 a_x1_x2_1 a_x1_x2_2 + a_x2_0 a_x2_1 a_x2_2 a_x2_x1_1 a_x2_x1_2 + e_c_m c_z_1 c_z_2 beta + lambda; + +rho_1 = .9; +rho_2 = -.2; +rho_3 = .4; +rho_4 = -.3; + + +a_x1_0 = -.9; +a_x1_1 = .4; +a_x1_2 = .3; +a_x1_x2_1 = .1; +a_x1_x2_2 = .2; + +a_x2_0 = -.9; +a_x2_1 = .2; +a_x2_2 = -.1; +a_x2_x1_1 = -.1; +a_x2_x1_2 = .2; + +beta = .2; +e_c_m = .5; +c_z_1 = .2; +c_z_2 = -.1; + +lambda = 0.5; // Share of optimizing agents. + +trend_component_model(model_name=toto, eqtags=['eq:x1', 'eq:x2', 'eq:x1bar', 'eq:x2bar'], targets=['eq:x1bar', 'eq:x2bar']); + +pac_model(auxiliary_model_name=toto, discount=beta, model_name=pacman); + +model; + +[name='eq:y'] +y = rho_1*y(-1) + rho_2*y(-2) + ey; + +[name='eq:x'] +x = rho_3*x(-1) + rho_4*x(-2) + ex; + +[name='eq:x1'] +diff(x1) = a_x1_0*(x1(-1)-x1bar(-1)) + a_x1_1*diff(x1(-1)) + a_x1_2*diff(x1(-2)) + a_x1_x2_1*diff(x2(-1)) + a_x1_x2_2*diff(x2(-2)) + ex1; + +[name='eq:x2'] +diff(x2) = a_x2_0*(x2(-1)-x2bar(-1)) + a_x2_1*diff(x1(-1)) + a_x2_2*diff(x1(-2)) + a_x2_x1_1*diff(x2(-1)) + a_x2_x1_2*diff(x2(-2)) + ex2; + +[name='eq:x1bar'] +x1bar = x1bar(-1) + ex1bar; + +[name='eq:x2bar'] +x2bar = x2bar(-1) + ex2bar; + +[name='zpac'] +diff(z) = lambda*(e_c_m*(x1(-1)-z(-1)) + c_z_1*diff(z(-1)) + c_z_2*diff(z(-2)) + pac_expectation(pacman)) + (1-lambda)*( y + x) + ez; + +end; + +shocks; + var ex1 = 1.0; + var ex2 = 1.0; + var ex1bar = 1.0; + var ex2bar = 1.0; + var ez = 1.0; + var ey = 0.1; + var ex = 0.1; +end; + +// Initialize the PAC model (build the Companion VAR representation for the auxiliary model). +pac.initialize('pacman'); + +// Update the parameters of the PAC expectation model (h0 and h1 vectors). +pac.update.expectation('pacman'); + +// Set initial conditions to zero. Please use more sensible values if any... +initialconditions = dseries(zeros(10, M_.endo_nbr+M_.exo_nbr), 2000Q1, vertcat(M_.endo_names,M_.exo_names)); + +// Simulate the model for 500 periods +TrueData = simul_backward_model(initialconditions, 300); + +// Define a structure describing the parameters to be estimated (with initial conditions). +clear eparams +eparams.e_c_m = .9; +eparams.c_z_1 = .5; +eparams.c_z_2 = .2; +eparams.lambda = .7; + +// Define the dataset used for estimation +edata = TrueData; +edata.ez = dseries(NaN(TrueData.nobs, 1), 2000Q1, 'ez'); + +tic +pac.estimate.nls('zpac', eparams, edata, 2005Q1:2005Q1+200, 'csminwel', 'verbosity', 0); +toc +skipline(1) + +e_c_m_nls = M_.params(strmatch('e_c_m', M_.param_names, 'exact')); +c_z_1_nls = M_.params(strmatch('c_z_1', M_.param_names, 'exact')); +c_z_2_nls = M_.params(strmatch('c_z_2', M_.param_names, 'exact')); +lambda_nls = M_.params(strmatch('lambda', M_.param_names, 'exact')); + +disp(sprintf('Estimate of e_c_m: %f', e_c_m_nls)) +disp(sprintf('Estimate of c_z_1: %f', c_z_1_nls)) +disp(sprintf('Estimate of c_z_2: %f', c_z_2_nls)) +disp(sprintf('Estimate of lambda: %f', lambda_nls)) + +skipline(2) + +// Define a structure describing the parameters to be estimated (with initial conditions). +clear eparams +eparams.e_c_m = .9; +eparams.c_z_1 = .5; +eparams.c_z_2 = .2; +eparams.lambda = .0; + +// Define the dataset used for estimation +edata = TrueData; +edata.ez = dseries(NaN(TrueData.nobs, 1), 2000Q1, 'ez'); + +tic +pac.estimate.nls('zpac', eparams, edata, 2005Q1:2005Q1+200, 'lsqnonlin', 'Algorithm', 'levenberg-marquardt'); +toc + +skipline(1) + +e_c_m_lsqnonlin = M_.params(strmatch('e_c_m', M_.param_names, 'exact')); +c_z_1_lsqnonlin = M_.params(strmatch('c_z_1', M_.param_names, 'exact')); +c_z_2_lsqnonlin= M_.params(strmatch('c_z_2', M_.param_names, 'exact')); +lambda_lsqnonlin = M_.params(strmatch('lambda', M_.param_names, 'exact')); + +disp(sprintf('Estimate of e_c_m: %f', e_c_m_lsqnonlin)) +disp(sprintf('Estimate of c_z_1: %f', c_z_1_lsqnonlin)) +disp(sprintf('Estimate of c_z_2: %f', c_z_2_lsqnonlin)) +disp(sprintf('Estimate of lambda: %f', lambda_lsqnonlin)) + +if abs(e_c_m_nls-e_c_m_lsqnonlin)>.01 + error('Gauss Newton and direct SSR minimization do not provide consistent estimates (e_c_m)') +end + +if abs(c_z_1_nls-c_z_1_lsqnonlin)>.01 + error('Gauss Newton and direct SSR minimization do not provide consistent estimates (c_z_1)') +end + +if abs(c_z_2_nls-c_z_2_lsqnonlin)>.01 + error('Gauss Newton and direct SSR minimization do not provide consistent estimates (c_z_2)') +end + +if abs(lambda_nls-lambda_lsqnonlin)>.01 + error('Gauss Newton and direct SSR minimization do not provide consistent estimates (lambda)') +end \ No newline at end of file