diff --git a/matlab/th_autocovariances.m b/matlab/th_autocovariances.m index 81a115a6b..dbcbcd56e 100644 --- a/matlab/th_autocovariances.m +++ b/matlab/th_autocovariances.m @@ -72,6 +72,10 @@ if local_order~=1 && M_.hessian_eq_zero local_order = 1; end +if local_order>1 && (options_.hp_filter || options_.bandpass.indicator) + error('Theoretical filtered moments not implemented above 1st order') +end + endo_nbr = M_.endo_nbr; if isoctave warning('off', 'Octave:divide-by-zero') @@ -79,80 +83,61 @@ end nar = options_.ar; Gamma_y = cell(nar+2,1); if isempty(ivar) - ivar = [1:endo_nbr]'; + ivar = (1:endo_nbr)'; end nvar = size(ivar,1); ghx = dr.ghx; ghu = dr.ghu; -nspred = M_.nspred; -nstatic = M_.nstatic; - -nx = size(ghx,2); inv_order_var = dr.inv_order_var; -kstate = dr.kstate; -ikx = [nstatic+1:nstatic+nspred]; -k0 = kstate(find(kstate(:,2) <= M_.maximum_lag+1),:); -i0 = find(k0(:,2) == M_.maximum_lag+1); -i00 = i0; -n0 = length(i0); -AS = ghx(:,i0); -ghu1 = zeros(nx,M_.exo_nbr); -ghu1(i0,:) = ghu(ikx,:); -for i=M_.maximum_lag:-1:2 - i1 = find(k0(:,2) == i); - n1 = size(i1,1); - j1 = zeros(n1,1); - for k1 = 1:n1 - j1(k1) = find(k0(i00,1)==k0(i1(k1),1)); - end - AS(:,j1) = AS(:,j1)+ghx(:,i1); - i0 = i1; -end -b = ghu1*M_.Sigma_e*ghu1'; - - -ipred = nstatic+(1:nspred)'; +index_states = M_.nstatic+(1:M_.nspred)'; +ghu_states_only = zeros(M_.nspred,M_.exo_nbr); +ghu_states_only(1:M_.nspred,:) = ghu(index_states,:); %get shock impact on states only % state space representation for state variables only -[A,B] = kalman_transition_matrix(dr,ipred,1:nx,M_.exo_nbr); -% Compute stationary variables (before HP filtering), -% and compute 2nd order mean correction on stationary variables (in case of -% HP filtering, this mean correction is computed *before* filtering) -if local_order == 2 || options_.hp_filter == 0 - [vx, u] = lyapunov_symm(A,B*M_.Sigma_e*B',options_.lyapunov_fixed_point_tol,options_.qz_criterium,options_.lyapunov_complex_threshold,[],options_.debug); +[A,B] = kalman_transition_matrix(dr,index_states,1:M_.nspred,M_.exo_nbr); +% Compute stationary variables for unfiltered moments (filtering will remove unit roots) +if options_.hp_filter ~= 0 || options_.bandpass.indicator + % By construction, all variables are stationary when filtered iky = inv_order_var(ivar); stationary_vars = (1:length(ivar))'; - if ~isempty(u) - x = abs(ghx*u); - iky = iky(find(all(x(iky,:) < options_.schur_vec_tol,2))); - stationary_vars = find(all(x(inv_order_var(ivar(stationary_vars)),:) < options_.schur_vec_tol,2)); - end - aa = ghx(iky,:); - bb = ghu(iky,:); - if local_order == 2 % mean correction for 2nd order - if ~isempty(ikx) - Ex = (dr.ghs2(ikx)+dr.ghxx(ikx,:)*vx(:)+dr.ghuu(ikx,:)*M_.Sigma_e(:))/2; - Ex = (eye(n0)-AS(ikx,:))\Ex; - Gamma_y{nar+3} = NaN*ones(nvar, 1); - Gamma_y{nar+3}(stationary_vars) = AS(iky,:)*Ex+(dr.ghs2(iky)+dr.ghxx(iky,:)*vx(:)+... - dr.ghuu(iky,:)*M_.Sigma_e(:))/2; - else %no static and no predetermined - Gamma_y{nar+3} = NaN*ones(nvar, 1); - Gamma_y{nar+3}(stationary_vars) = (dr.ghs2(iky)+ dr.ghuu(iky,:)*M_.Sigma_e(:))/2; - end +else + [variance_states, unit_root_Schur_vector] = lyapunov_symm(A,B*M_.Sigma_e*B',options_.lyapunov_fixed_point_tol,options_.qz_criterium,options_.lyapunov_complex_threshold,[],options_.debug); + iky = inv_order_var(ivar); + stationary_vars = (1:length(ivar))'; + if ~isempty(unit_root_Schur_vector) + x = abs(ghx*unit_root_Schur_vector); + iky = iky(all(x(iky,:) < options_.schur_vec_tol,2)); + stationary_vars = find(all(x(inv_order_var(ivar),:) < options_.schur_vec_tol,2)); end end + +%compute 2nd order mean correction on stationary variables +if local_order == 2 % mean correction for 2nd order with no filters; other cases are error out above + if ~isempty(index_states) + Ex = (dr.ghs2(index_states)+dr.ghxx(index_states,:)*variance_states(:)+dr.ghuu(index_states,:)*M_.Sigma_e(:))/2; + Ex = (eye(length(M_.nspred))-ghx(index_states,:))\Ex; + Gamma_y{nar+3} = NaN*ones(nvar, 1); + Gamma_y{nar+3}(stationary_vars) = ghx(iky,:)*Ex+(dr.ghs2(iky)+dr.ghxx(iky,:)*variance_states(:)+... + dr.ghuu(iky,:)*M_.Sigma_e(:))/2; + else %no static and no predetermined + Gamma_y{nar+3} = NaN*ones(nvar, 1); + Gamma_y{nar+3}(stationary_vars) = (dr.ghs2(iky)+ dr.ghuu(iky,:)*M_.Sigma_e(:))/2; + end +end + if options_.hp_filter == 0 && ~options_.bandpass.indicator + aa = ghx(iky,:); + bb = ghu(iky,:); + % unconditional variance v = NaN*ones(nvar,nvar); - v(stationary_vars,stationary_vars) = aa*vx*aa'+ bb*M_.Sigma_e*bb'; - k = find(abs(v) < 1e-12); - v(k) = 0; + v(stationary_vars,stationary_vars) = aa*variance_states*aa'+ bb*M_.Sigma_e*bb'; + v(abs(v) < 1e-12) = 0; Gamma_y{1} = v; % autocorrelations if nar > 0 - vxy = (A*vx*aa'+ghu1*M_.Sigma_e*bb'); + vxy = (A*variance_states*aa'+ghu_states_only*M_.Sigma_e*bb'); sy = sqrt(diag(Gamma_y{1})); sy = sy(stationary_vars); sy = sy *sy'; @@ -171,37 +156,31 @@ if options_.hp_filter == 0 && ~options_.bandpass.indicator else Gamma_y{nar+2} = NaN(nvar,M_.exo_nbr); cs = get_lower_cholesky_covariance(M_.Sigma_e,options_.add_tiny_number_to_cholesky); - b1 = ghu1; - b1 = b1*cs; - b2 = ghu(iky,:); - b2 = b2*cs; - vx = lyapunov_symm(A,b1*b1',options_.lyapunov_fixed_point_tol,options_.qz_criterium,options_.lyapunov_complex_threshold,1,options_.debug); - vv = diag(aa*vx*aa'+b2*b2'); - vv2 = 0; + b1 = ghu_states_only*cs; + b2 = ghu(iky,:)*cs; + variance_states = lyapunov_symm(A,b1*b1',options_.lyapunov_fixed_point_tol,options_.qz_criterium,options_.lyapunov_complex_threshold,1,options_.debug); + vv = diag(aa*variance_states*aa'+b2*b2'); + variance_sum_loop = 0; for i=1:M_.exo_nbr - vx1 = lyapunov_symm(A,b1(:,i)*b1(:,i)',options_.lyapunov_fixed_point_tol,options_.qz_criterium,options_.lyapunov_complex_threshold,2,options_.debug); - vx2 = abs(diag(aa*vx1*aa'+b2(:,i)*b2(:,i)')); + variance_states = lyapunov_symm(A,b1(:,i)*b1(:,i)',options_.lyapunov_fixed_point_tol,options_.qz_criterium,options_.lyapunov_complex_threshold,2,options_.debug); + vx2 = diag(aa*variance_states*aa'+b2(:,i)*b2(:,i)'); Gamma_y{nar+2}(stationary_vars,i) = vx2; - vv2 = vv2 +vx2; + variance_sum_loop = variance_sum_loop +vx2; %track overall variance over shocks end - if max(abs(vv2-vv)./vv) > 1e-4 + if max(abs(variance_sum_loop-vv)./vv) > 1e-4 warning(['Aggregate variance and sum of variances by shocks ' ... 'differ by more than 0.01 %']) end for i=1:M_.exo_nbr Gamma_y{nar+2}(stationary_vars,i) = Gamma_y{nar+ ... - 2}(stationary_vars,i)./vv2; + 2}(stationary_vars,i)./variance_sum_loop; end end end else% ==> Theoretical filters. - % By construction, all variables are stationary when HP filtered - iky = inv_order_var(ivar); - stationary_vars = (1:length(ivar))'; aa = ghx(iky,:); %R in Uhlig (2001) bb = ghu(iky,:); %S in Uhlig (2001) - lambda = options_.hp_filter; ngrid = options_.filtered_theoretical_moments_grid; freqs = 0 : ((2*pi)/ngrid) : (2*pi*(1 - .5/ngrid)); %[0,2*pi) tpos = exp( sqrt(-1)*freqs); %positive frequencies @@ -214,6 +193,7 @@ else% ==> Theoretical filters. filter_gain(freqs>=2*pi/lowest_periodicity & freqs<=2*pi/highest_periodicity)=1; filter_gain(freqs<=-2*pi/lowest_periodicity+2*pi & freqs>=-2*pi/highest_periodicity+2*pi)=1; else + lambda = options_.hp_filter; filter_gain = 4*lambda*(1 - cos(freqs)).^2 ./ (1 + 4*lambda*(1 - cos(freqs)).^2); %HP transfer function end mathp_col = NaN(ngrid,length(ivar)^2); @@ -223,8 +203,8 @@ else% ==> Theoretical filters. if filter_gain(ig)==0 f_hp = zeros(length(ivar),length(ivar)); else - f_omega =(1/(2*pi))*([(IA-A*tneg(ig))\ghu1;IE]... - *M_.Sigma_e*[ghu1'/(IA-A'*tpos(ig)) IE]); % spectral density of state variables; top formula Uhlig (2001), p. 20 with N=0 + f_omega =(1/(2*pi))*([(IA-A*tneg(ig))\ghu_states_only;IE]... + *M_.Sigma_e*[ghu_states_only'/(IA-A'*tpos(ig)) IE]); % spectral density of state variables; top formula Uhlig (2001), p. 20 with N=0 g_omega = [aa*tneg(ig) bb]*f_omega*[aa'*tpos(ig); bb']; % spectral density of selected variables; middle formula Uhlig (2001), p. 20; only middle block, i.e. y_t' f_hp = filter_gain(ig)^2*g_omega; % spectral density of selected filtered series; top formula Uhlig (2001), p. 21; end @@ -249,7 +229,7 @@ else% ==> Theoretical filters. Gamma_y{nar+2} = zeros(nvar,M_.exo_nbr); cs = get_lower_cholesky_covariance(M_.Sigma_e); %make sure Covariance matrix is positive definite SS = cs*cs'; - b1 = ghu1; + b1 = ghu_states_only; b2 = ghu(iky,:); mathp_col = NaN(ngrid,length(ivar)^2); IA = eye(size(A,1)); @@ -289,4 +269,4 @@ else% ==> Theoretical filters. end if isoctave warning('on', 'Octave:divide-by-zero') -end +end \ No newline at end of file