var_expectation: first draft

matlab/var_forecast.m

@@ -1,7 +1,6 @@
-function y = var_forecast(M_, name, h, y, fcv)
+function y = var_forecast(name, h, y, fcv)
 
 % name : filename
-% M_
 % name        string    name of var model, provided in var statement
 % h           int       number of steps-ahead forecast
 % y           matrix    rows: realizations of endogenous variables in declaration order; cols: realizations in t, t-1, t-2 ... order of VAR
@@ -27,6 +26,9 @@ function y = var_forecast(M_, name, h, y, fcv)
 % >> var_forecast(M_, 'm1', 1, [yt ytm1])
 % >> var_forecast(M_, 'm1', 2, [yt ytm1], ['a'])
 
+%%
+global M_
+
 %% construct y
 assert(length(y) == length(M_.endo_names));
 endo_names = cellstr(M_.endo_names);

preprocessor/CodeInterpreter.hh

@@ -1,5 +1,5 @@
 /*
- * Copyright (C) 2007-2015 Dynare Team
+ * Copyright (C) 2007-2016 Dynare Team
  *
  * This file is part of Dynare.
  *
@@ -199,7 +199,8 @@ enum UnaryOpcode
     oSteadyStateParamDeriv, // for the derivative of the STEADY_STATE operator w.r.t. to a parameter
     oSteadyStateParam2ndDeriv, // for the 2nd derivative of the STEADY_STATE operator w.r.t. to a parameter
     oExpectation,
-    oErf
+    oErf,
+    oVarExpectation
   };
 
 enum BinaryOpcode

preprocessor/DataTree.cc

@@ -490,6 +490,12 @@ DataTree::AddExpectation(int iArg1, expr_t iArg2)
   return AddUnaryOp(oExpectation, iArg2, iArg1);
 }
 
+expr_t
+DataTree::AddVarExpectation(expr_t iArg1, const string &iArg2)
+{
+  return AddUnaryOp(oVarExpectation, iArg1, 0, 0, 0, iArg2);
+}
+
 expr_t
 DataTree::AddEqual(expr_t iArg1, expr_t iArg2)
 {

preprocessor/DataTree.hh

@@ -62,7 +62,7 @@ protected:
   typedef map<pair<int, int>, VariableNode *> variable_node_map_t;
   variable_node_map_t variable_node_map;
   //! Pair( Pair(arg1, UnaryOpCode), Pair( Expectation Info Set, Pair(param1_symb_id, param2_symb_id)) ))
-  typedef map<pair<pair<expr_t, UnaryOpcode>, pair<int, pair<int, int> > >, UnaryOpNode *> unary_op_node_map_t;
+  typedef map<pair<pair<expr_t, UnaryOpcode>, pair<pair<int, pair<int, int> >, string> >, UnaryOpNode *> unary_op_node_map_t;
   unary_op_node_map_t unary_op_node_map;
   //! Pair( Pair( Pair(arg1, arg2), order of Power Derivative), opCode)
   typedef map<pair<pair<pair<expr_t, expr_t>, int>, BinaryOpcode>, BinaryOpNode *> binary_op_node_map_t;
@@ -98,7 +98,7 @@ private:
   int node_counter;
 
   inline expr_t AddPossiblyNegativeConstant(double val);
-  inline expr_t AddUnaryOp(UnaryOpcode op_code, expr_t arg, int arg_exp_info_set = 0, int param1_symb_id = 0, int param2_symb_id = 0);
+  inline expr_t AddUnaryOp(UnaryOpcode op_code, expr_t arg, int arg_exp_info_set = 0, int param1_symb_id = 0, int param2_symb_id = 0, const string &var_expectation_model_name = string());
   inline expr_t AddBinaryOp(expr_t arg1, BinaryOpcode op_code, expr_t arg2, int powerDerivOrder = 0);
   inline expr_t AddTrinaryOp(expr_t arg1, TrinaryOpcode op_code, expr_t arg2, expr_t arg3);
 
@@ -156,6 +156,8 @@ public:
   expr_t AddPowerDeriv(expr_t iArg1, expr_t iArg2, int powerDerivOrder);
   //! Adds "E(arg1)(arg2)" to model tree
   expr_t AddExpectation(int iArg1, expr_t iArg2);
+  //! Adds "E(arg1)(arg2)" to model tree
+  expr_t AddVarExpectation(expr_t iArg1, const string &iArg2);
   //! Adds "exp(arg)" to model tree
   expr_t AddExp(expr_t iArg1);
   //! Adds "log(arg)" to model tree
@@ -304,10 +306,10 @@ DataTree::AddPossiblyNegativeConstant(double v)
 }
 
 inline expr_t
-DataTree::AddUnaryOp(UnaryOpcode op_code, expr_t arg, int arg_exp_info_set, int param1_symb_id, int param2_symb_id)
+DataTree::AddUnaryOp(UnaryOpcode op_code, expr_t arg, int arg_exp_info_set, int param1_symb_id, int param2_symb_id, const string &var_expectation_model_name)
 {
   // If the node already exists in tree, share it
-  unary_op_node_map_t::iterator it = unary_op_node_map.find(make_pair(make_pair(arg, op_code), make_pair(arg_exp_info_set, make_pair(param1_symb_id, param2_symb_id))));
+  unary_op_node_map_t::iterator it = unary_op_node_map.find(make_pair(make_pair(arg, op_code), make_pair(make_pair(arg_exp_info_set, make_pair(param1_symb_id, param2_symb_id)), var_expectation_model_name)));
   if (it != unary_op_node_map.end())
     return it->second;
 
@@ -326,7 +328,7 @@ DataTree::AddUnaryOp(UnaryOpcode op_code, expr_t arg, int arg_exp_info_set, int
         {
         }
     }
-  return new UnaryOpNode(*this, op_code, arg, arg_exp_info_set, param1_symb_id, param2_symb_id);
+  return new UnaryOpNode(*this, op_code, arg, arg_exp_info_set, param1_symb_id, param2_symb_id, var_expectation_model_name);
 }
 
 inline expr_t

preprocessor/DynareBison.yy

@@ -129,7 +129,7 @@ class ParsingDriver;
 %token TEX RAMSEY_MODEL RAMSEY_POLICY RAMSEY_CONSTRAINTS PLANNER_DISCOUNT DISCRETIONARY_POLICY DISCRETIONARY_TOL
 %token <string_val> TEX_NAME
 %token UNIFORM_PDF UNIT_ROOT_VARS USE_DLL USEAUTOCORR GSA_SAMPLE_FILE USE_UNIVARIATE_FILTERS_IF_SINGULARITY_IS_DETECTED
-%token VALUES VAR VAREXO VAREXO_DET VAROBS VAREXOBS PREDETERMINED_VARIABLES
+%token VALUES VAR VAREXO VAREXO_DET VAROBS VAREXOBS PREDETERMINED_VARIABLES VAR_EXPECTATION
 %token WRITE_LATEX_DYNAMIC_MODEL WRITE_LATEX_STATIC_MODEL WRITE_LATEX_ORIGINAL_MODEL
 %token XLS_SHEET XLS_RANGE LMMCP OCCBIN BANDPASS_FILTER COLORMAP VAR_MODEL
 %left COMMA
@@ -771,6 +771,8 @@ hand_side : '(' hand_side ')'
             { $$ = driver.add_power($1, $3); }
           | EXPECTATION '(' signed_integer ')''(' hand_side ')'
 	    { $$ = driver.add_expectation($3, $6); }
+          | VAR_EXPECTATION '(' hand_side COMMA MODEL_NAME EQUAL NAME ')'
+            { $$ = driver.add_var_expectation($3, $7); }
           | MINUS hand_side %prec UMINUS
             { $$ = driver.add_uminus($2); }
           | PLUS hand_side

preprocessor/DynareFlex.ll

@@ -332,7 +332,7 @@ DATE -?[0-9]+([YyAa]|[Mm]([1-9]|1[0-2])|[Qq][1-4]|[Ww]([1-9]{1}|[1-4][0-9]|5[0-2
 <DYNARE_STATEMENT>nocorr	{return token::NOCORR;}
 <DYNARE_STATEMENT>optim		{return token::OPTIM;}
 <DYNARE_STATEMENT>periods	{return token::PERIODS;}
-<DYNARE_STATEMENT>model_name	{return token::MODEL_NAME;}
+<DYNARE_STATEMENT,DYNARE_BLOCK>model_name	{return token::MODEL_NAME;}
 <DYNARE_STATEMENT>endogenous_terminal_period 	{return token::ENDOGENOUS_TERMINAL_PERIOD;}
 <DYNARE_STATEMENT>sub_draws	{return token::SUB_DRAWS;}
 <DYNARE_STATEMENT>minimal_solving_periods {return token::MINIMAL_SOLVING_PERIODS;}
@@ -763,6 +763,7 @@ DATE -?[0-9]+([YyAa]|[Mm]([1-9]|1[0-2])|[Qq][1-4]|[Ww]([1-9]{1}|[1-4][0-9]|5[0-2
 <DYNARE_STATEMENT,DYNARE_BLOCK>erf {return token::ERF;}
 <DYNARE_STATEMENT,DYNARE_BLOCK>steady_state {return token::STEADY_STATE;}
 <DYNARE_STATEMENT,DYNARE_BLOCK>expectation {return token::EXPECTATION;}
+<DYNARE_BLOCK>var_expectation {return token::VAR_EXPECTATION;}
 <DYNARE_STATEMENT,DYNARE_BLOCK>varobs {return token::VAROBS;}
 <DYNARE_STATEMENT,DYNARE_BLOCK>varexobs {return token::VAREXOBS;}
 <DYNARE_STATEMENT,DYNARE_BLOCK>full {return token::FULL;}

preprocessor/ExprNode.cc

@@ -1502,18 +1502,20 @@ VariableNode::isInStaticForm() const
   return lag == 0;
 }
 
-UnaryOpNode::UnaryOpNode(DataTree &datatree_arg, UnaryOpcode op_code_arg, const expr_t arg_arg, int expectation_information_set_arg, int param1_symb_id_arg, int param2_symb_id_arg) :
+UnaryOpNode::UnaryOpNode(DataTree &datatree_arg, UnaryOpcode op_code_arg, const expr_t arg_arg, int expectation_information_set_arg, int param1_symb_id_arg, int param2_symb_id_arg, const string &var_expectation_model_name_arg) :
   ExprNode(datatree_arg),
   arg(arg_arg),
   expectation_information_set(expectation_information_set_arg),
   param1_symb_id(param1_symb_id_arg),
   param2_symb_id(param2_symb_id_arg),
+  var_expectation_model_name(var_expectation_model_name_arg),
   op_code(op_code_arg)
 {
   // Add myself to the unary op map
   datatree.unary_op_node_map[make_pair(make_pair(arg, op_code),
-                                       make_pair(expectation_information_set,
+                                       make_pair(make_pair(expectation_information_set,
-                                                 make_pair(param1_symb_id, param2_symb_id)))] = this;
+                                                           make_pair(param1_symb_id, param2_symb_id)),
+                                                 var_expectation_model_name))] = this;
 }
 
 void
@@ -1659,6 +1661,8 @@ UnaryOpNode::composeDerivatives(expr_t darg, int deriv_id)
       t14 = datatree.AddDivide(datatree.Two, t13);
       // (2/(sqrt(pi)*exp(x^2)))*dx;
       return datatree.AddTimes(t14, darg);
+    case oVarExpectation:
+      return datatree.Zero;
     }
   // Suppress GCC warning
   exit(EXIT_FAILURE);
@@ -1740,6 +1744,8 @@ UnaryOpNode::cost(int cost, bool is_matlab) const
       case oSteadyStateParam2ndDeriv:
       case oExpectation:
         return cost;
+      case oVarExpectation:
+        return cost + MIN_COST_MATLAB + 1;
       }
   else
     // Cost for C files
@@ -1782,6 +1788,8 @@ UnaryOpNode::cost(int cost, bool is_matlab) const
       case oSteadyStateParam2ndDeriv:
       case oExpectation:
         return cost;
+      case oVarExpectation:
+        return cost + MIN_COST_C + 1;
       }
   exit(EXIT_FAILURE);
 }
@@ -2007,6 +2015,18 @@ UnaryOpNode::writeOutput(ostream &output, ExprNodeOutputType output_type,
     case oErf:
       output << "erf";
       break;
+    case oVarExpectation:
+      VariableNode *varg = dynamic_cast<VariableNode *>(arg);
+      assert(varg != NULL);
+      assert(datatree.symbol_table.getType(varg->symb_id) == eEndogenous);
+      if (IS_LATEX(output_type))
+        output << "VAR" << LEFT_PAR(output_type)
+               << datatree.symbol_table.getTeXName(varg->symb_id)
+               << "_{t+1}" << RIGHT_PAR(output_type);
+      else
+        output << "var_forecast('" << var_expectation_model_name << "', 1, y, '"
+               << datatree.symbol_table.getName(varg->symb_id) << "')";
+      return;
     }
 
   bool close_parenthesis = false;
@@ -2102,6 +2122,7 @@ UnaryOpNode::eval_opcode(UnaryOpcode op_code, double v) throw (EvalException, Ev
     case oSteadyStateParamDeriv:
     case oSteadyStateParam2ndDeriv:
     case oExpectation:
+    case oVarExpectation:
       throw EvalException();
     case oErf:
       return (erf(v));
@@ -2354,6 +2375,8 @@ UnaryOpNode::buildSimilarUnaryOpNode(expr_t alt_arg, DataTree &alt_datatree) con
       return alt_datatree.AddExpectation(expectation_information_set, alt_arg);
     case oErf:
       return alt_datatree.AddErf(alt_arg);
+    case oVarExpectation:
+      return alt_datatree.AddVarExpectation(alt_arg, var_expectation_model_name);
     }
   // Suppress GCC warning
   exit(EXIT_FAILURE);

preprocessor/ExprNode.hh

@@ -588,6 +588,8 @@ private:
   const int expectation_information_set;
   //! Only used for oSteadyStateParamDeriv and oSteadyStateParam2ndDeriv
   const int param1_symb_id, param2_symb_id;
+  //! Only used for oVarExpectation
+  const string var_expectation_model_name;
   const UnaryOpcode op_code;
   virtual expr_t computeDerivative(int deriv_id);
   virtual int cost(int cost, bool is_matlab) const;
@@ -596,7 +598,7 @@ private:
   //! Returns the derivative of this node if darg is the derivative of the argument
   expr_t composeDerivatives(expr_t darg, int deriv_id);
 public:
-  UnaryOpNode(DataTree &datatree_arg, UnaryOpcode op_code_arg, const expr_t arg_arg, int expectation_information_set_arg, int param1_symb_id_arg, int param2_symb_id_arg);
+  UnaryOpNode(DataTree &datatree_arg, UnaryOpcode op_code_arg, const expr_t arg_arg, int expectation_information_set_arg, int param1_symb_id_arg, int param2_symb_id_arg, const string &var_expectation_model_name_arg);
   virtual void prepareForDerivation();
   virtual void computeTemporaryTerms(map<expr_t, pair<int, NodeTreeReference> > &reference_count,
                                      map<NodeTreeReference, temporary_terms_t> &temp_terms_map,

preprocessor/ParsingDriver.cc

@@ -2386,6 +2386,13 @@ ParsingDriver::add_expectation(string *arg1, expr_t arg2)
   return expectationNode;
 }
 
+expr_t
+ParsingDriver::add_var_expectation(expr_t arg1, string *arg2)
+{
+  expr_t varExpectationNode = data_tree->AddVarExpectation(arg1, *arg2);
+  return varExpectationNode;
+}
+
 expr_t
 ParsingDriver::add_exp(expr_t arg1)
 {

preprocessor/ParsingDriver.hh

@@ -638,6 +638,8 @@ public:
   expr_t add_power(expr_t arg1,  expr_t arg2);
   //! Writes token "E(arg1)(arg2)" to model tree
   expr_t add_expectation(string *arg1,  expr_t arg2);
+  //! Writes token "VAR_EXPECTATION(arg1,arg2)" to model tree
+  expr_t add_var_expectation(expr_t arg1,  string *arg2);
   //! Writes token "exp(arg1)" to model tree
   expr_t add_exp(expr_t arg1);
   //! Writes token "log(arg1)" to model tree