diff --git a/tests/Makefile.am b/tests/Makefile.am index a639bf838..b2244a596 100644 --- a/tests/Makefile.am +++ b/tests/Makefile.am @@ -3,6 +3,7 @@ MODFILES = \ estimation/fs2000_MCMC_jumping_covariance.mod \ estimation/fs2000_initialize_from_calib.mod \ estimation/fs2000_calibrated_covariance.mod \ + estimation/fs2000_model_comparison.mod \ estimation/MH_recover/fs2000_recover.mod \ estimation/t_proposal/fs2000_student.mod \ estimation/TaRB/fs2000_tarb.mod \ @@ -294,6 +295,9 @@ AIM/fs2000x10_L9_L_AIM.o.trs: AIM/fs2000x10_L9_L.o.trs AIM/ls2003_2L0L_AIM.o.trs: AIM/ls2003_2L0L.o.trs AIM/ls2003_2L2L_AIM.o.trs: AIM/ls2003_2L2L.o.trs +estimation/fs2000_model_comparison.m.trs: estimation/fs2000.m.trs estimation/fs2000_initialize_from_calib.m.trs estimation/fs2000_calibrated_covariance.m.trs +estimation/fs2000_model_comparison.o.trs: estimation/fs2000.o.trs estimation/fs2000_initialize_from_calib.o.trs estimation/fs2000_calibrated_covariance.o.trs + optimizers/fs2000_102.m.trs: estimation/fs2000.m.trs optimizers/fs2000_102.o.trs: estimation/fs2000.o.trs diff --git a/tests/estimation/fs2000_model_comparison.mod b/tests/estimation/fs2000_model_comparison.mod new file mode 100644 index 000000000..b350eb337 --- /dev/null +++ b/tests/estimation/fs2000_model_comparison.mod @@ -0,0 +1,110 @@ +// See fs2000.mod in the examples/ directory for details on the model + +var m P c e W R k d n l gy_obs gp_obs y dA; +varexo e_a e_m; + +parameters alp bet gam mst rho psi del; + +alp = 0.33; +bet = 0.99; +gam = 0.003; +mst = 1.011; +rho = 0.7; +psi = 0.787; +del = 0.02; + +model; +dA = exp(gam+e_a); +log(m) = (1-rho)*log(mst) + rho*log(m(-1))+e_m; +-P/(c(+1)*P(+1)*m)+bet*P(+1)*(alp*exp(-alp*(gam+log(e(+1))))*k^(alp-1)*n(+1)^(1-alp)+(1-del)*exp(-(gam+log(e(+1)))))/(c(+2)*P(+2)*m(+1))=0; +W = l/n; +-(psi/(1-psi))*(c*P/(1-n))+l/n = 0; +R = P*(1-alp)*exp(-alp*(gam+e_a))*k(-1)^alp*n^(-alp)/W; +1/(c*P)-bet*P*(1-alp)*exp(-alp*(gam+e_a))*k(-1)^alp*n^(1-alp)/(m*l*c(+1)*P(+1)) = 0; +c+k = exp(-alp*(gam+e_a))*k(-1)^alp*n^(1-alp)+(1-del)*exp(-(gam+e_a))*k(-1); +P*c = m; +m-1+d = l; +e = exp(e_a); +y = k(-1)^alp*n^(1-alp)*exp(-alp*(gam+e_a)); +gy_obs = dA*y/y(-1); +gp_obs = (P/P(-1))*m(-1)/dA; +end; + +steady_state_model; + dA = exp(gam); + gst = 1/dA; + m = mst; + khst = ( (1-gst*bet*(1-del)) / (alp*gst^alp*bet) )^(1/(alp-1)); + xist = ( ((khst*gst)^alp - (1-gst*(1-del))*khst)/mst )^(-1); + nust = psi*mst^2/( (1-alp)*(1-psi)*bet*gst^alp*khst^alp ); + n = xist/(nust+xist); + P = xist + nust; + k = khst*n; + + l = psi*mst*n/( (1-psi)*(1-n) ); + c = mst/P; + d = l - mst + 1; + y = k^alp*n^(1-alp)*gst^alp; + R = mst/bet; + W = l/n; + ist = y-c; + q = 1 - d; + + e = 1; + + gp_obs = m/dA; + gy_obs = dA; +end; + + +shocks; +var e_a; stderr 0.014; +var e_m; stderr 0.005; +end; + +steady; + +check; + +estimated_params; +% alp, beta_pdf, 0.356, 0.02; +bet, beta_pdf, 0.993, 0.002; +% gam, normal_pdf, 0.0085, 0.003; +% mst, normal_pdf, 1.0002, 0.007; +% rho, beta_pdf, 0.129, 0.223; +% psi, beta_pdf, 0.65, 0.05; +% del, beta_pdf, 0.01, 0.005; +% stderr e_a, inv_gamma_pdf, 0.035449, inf; +% stderr e_m, inv_gamma_pdf, 0.008862, inf; +end; + +varobs gp_obs gy_obs; + +options_.solve_tolf = 1e-12; + +estimation(order=1,datafile=fsdat_simul,nobs=192,loglinear,mh_replic=2000,mh_nblocks=1,mh_jscale=0.8); + + +model_comparison fs2000(0.5) fs2000_calibrated_covariance(0.5); +if isfield(oo_,'Model_Comparison') + error('Model Comparison should not work with ML') +end +model_comparison fs2000 fs2000_initialize_from_calib; +model_comparison fs2000(0.5) fs2000_initialize_from_calib(0.5); +model_comparison fs2000(0.25) fs2000_initialize_from_calib(0.25); +model_comparison (marginal_density=laplace) fs2000(0.5) fs2000_initialize_from_calib(0.5); +if oo_.Model_Comparison.fs2000.Posterior_Model_Probability < oo_.Model_Comparison.fs2000_initialize_from_calib.Posterior_Model_Probability && ... + oo_.Model_Comparison.fs2000.Log_Marginal_Density > oo_.Model_Comparison.fs2000_initialize_from_calib.Log_Marginal_Density + error('Model Comparison not correct') +end +oo_laplace=oo_; +model_comparison (marginal_density=modifiedharmonicmean) fs2000(0.5) fs2000_initialize_from_calib(0.75); +if abs(oo_laplace.Model_Comparison.fs2000.Log_Marginal_Density-oo_.Model_Comparison.fs2000.Log_Marginal_Density)>0.1 + error('Laplace and Harmonic Mean do not match') +end +model_comparison (marginal_density=modifiedharmonicmean) fs2000(0) fs2000_initialize_from_calib(1); +if oo_.Model_Comparison.fs2000.Posterior_Model_Probability~=0 && oo_.Model_Comparison.fs2000_initialize_from_calib.Log_Marginal_Density~=1 + error('Incorporation of prior wrong') +end + +model_comparison(marginal_density=laplace) fs2000(0.333) fs2000_initialize_from_calib(0.333) fs2000_model_comparison(0.333);